OMG THINGS WILL NOT GET BETTER
Hockey pet peeve: "when a teammate tips a puck in on you, which is exactly how my first collegiate goal against happened. Thanks, Copper."
So I couldn't in good conscience do a basketball or hockey or softball roundtable question the week of the Ohio State game, lest Bo leap from his grave and stab out my eyes.* On the other hand I've been around here long enough to know what it means when the otters and Big Lebowski references come out (I don't know what posting the game column at 5 a.m. means but it's probably bad).
In that "game column"-type thing Brian suggested a future that's basically 20 years of the late-Carr program. Perhaps a more detailed assessment is in order:
Play out the next four years of Michigan football (If you think Coach X is replaced by Coach Y you can incorporate that into your fantasy.)? What are some of the potential pitfalls along the way? Any reassessment on our rivals going forward?
*People were asking what happened to the Blog That Yost Built.
Mathlete: If I would have charted my optimistically realistic expectations entering the Hoke era, here is what it would look like versus achievement on a completely arbitrary scale.
One year of lucky over-achievement, then a year of par and this year. The trajectory is all wrong but the total results are about right. With the strong recruiting and a quality group coming of players moving into the upper class I still think last year could be close to expectations. After nearly three seasons here would be my grades for Hoke and the coordinators:
Brady Hoke: Incomplete
Greg Mattison: A
Al Borges: D (GERG gave up 37 points to UMass, Borges at least torched Indiana)
Hoke gets an incomplete pending how the offense turns out next year. The defense is his specialty and their solid progression is a positive sign. Whether Borges survives to next year or not and if he stays and how much things get better (it has to get better, right?) will be the major determiner of his grade. Most of the offensive failures to date aren't on Hoke in my mind, but everything going forward will be.
|The future on defense is Tacos. [Upchurch]|
That's a long preamble to the original question, what do the next four years look like?
Next year the defense will be good, probably very good. The offense who knows. At this point I think anything is possible. Borges could get fired but probably won't. He could stay and things could be marginally better, he could stay and things could click and they could be good but probably still frustrating.
Beyond 2014 the defense should be consistently good. Historically, defenses loaded with talent like Michigan is bringing have a pretty low variance. They may not always be elite, but it's pretty hard for them to be bad. I really don't know what to say about the offense. Anything is possible, they could turn into Stanford next year or they could limp through a couple more years of Borges, with enough talent and a good enough defense to keep things intact but not good enough to compete with the best teams on the schedule.
As to the rivals, the only question for Ohio State is, can Urban maintain success at one place for an extended period? He has never stayed in one place for more than six seasons. As long as he is there Ohio State should be pretty similar to what we've seen from him to date. Are they going to go undefeated every year, certainly not, their win streak hasn't exactly come against murderers row. But the schedule isn't going to get a lot tougher in the Big Ten and I would expect their regular season win total to reach double digits more often than not.
Across the state, it's a bit more complex. Does Narduzzi leave after this year? How high of a level can the defense maintain with Dantonio but no Narduzzi. If he stays or Dantonio can keep things moving without him, the Spartans aren't going anywhere. The offense will probably never be good enough to put them at a consistently elite level, but they should be a real player in the East division. If the defense can't stay elite, Michigan State's chances of staying competitive at the top year after a year probably leave too.
Seth: Those questions are unfortunately easy to answer.
Urban: staying for awhile. He seems to have found his balance and this is the job he was always working toward; 9 of 10 cardiologists agree that coaching a Big Ten power that can play by SEC rules is less stressful than doing so in the SEC itself.
Narduzzi: Moving on, finally (probably to Purdue if I had to guess), but that's not going to kill MSU's defense by a longshot. Dantonio can coach, and his staff can develop talent, and he has other friends down the Saban tree who'd be happy to take the reigns of that machine.
I think we spent a long time explaining how Greg Robinson's defense was going to be better when whatever 3-stars they could add to it matured. There was no question the 2010 defense was going to be worse than the 2009 one, but everything hinged on whether you could see it improving to "just okay" by 2011.
It did, by the way. And there's the lesson: a good coach in college football can turn a unit around surprisingly quickly, and a bad one will get surprisingly bad results just as fast. The dropoff comes with the exodus of the old starters; mass improvement typically arrives when the new guy's guys start popping up all over the depth chart. If either happens all at once the results can be dramatic.
Here's some charts of Michigan and Michigan State FEI rankings since 2007:
Finding signs before roster turnover isn't that hard: two years ago Jack Mewhort was one more lazy Jim Bollman charge; right now he's playing better than Taylor Lewan. That is a statement about both programs and their offensive coaching trajectories.
If you stuck Greg Robinson in charge of MSU's defense next year I expect they'd be 9th then start falling off precipitously. Bringing in top talent doesn't do much if you can't develop it, and lacking a cohesive system that the players and coaches are fully committed to, there is little development that can go on.
Watch Kyle Kalis against Iowa versus Notre Dame. It wasn't Louis Nix or Stephon Tuitt he was lining up against, but he looked epically worse. That's because he's been out of the lineup since Indiana, and his offense hasn't been the same thing any three weeks in a row. At this point in 2009 we were remarking at how good 2-star defensive end Patrick Omameh looked out there. Omameh lacked 90% of the gifts that made Kalis a major recruit, but he'd been training on Michigan's offense for 15 months. He could never pull, but there were plenty of other options in that offense that played to his and the other guys' strengths.
|"I'm not a linebacker." [Fuller]|
Look, we've got an offensive GERG. Michigan State had one too—for similar reasons—and finally let him go this year to put the kid in charge of playcalling. They grabbed Jim Bollman to do what he does—recruit and preach the Gospel of Tressel—but wouldn't let him near the offensive playcalling, and lo and behold they're now doing things that make sense for their personnel (giving the kid QB easy reads, keeping the receivers' clangy hands away from populated areas, and not having Fou Fonoti do anything more complicated than "hit the bad man") and it's improving before our eyes.
So…I'm not even answering my question. But I am. There's a hard cap on how good Michigan's offense can get with this offensive staff, and the longer we go without seeing a player put in a position to succeed, the lower that ceiling is.
Defensively, follow MSU's progression. It's going to be elite, probably soon. So the future:
2014: Defense looks elite until game at Ohio State. Every game is close, four losses all accrued on the road (four of ND, Rutgers, MSU, Northwestern, OSU). Borges fired. 8-5
2015: Slow start with a loss to BYU or something but offense looks significantly improved as year progresses. 9-4.
2016: Offense takes a major leap forward, defense a small step back as it's breaking in young players next to a bevy of proven stars. Tough Big Ten schedule (OSU, MSU, Rutgers and Iowa on the road, Wisconsin and Penn State at home) depresses an otherwise good season. Win Citrus Bowl to finish 10-3
2017: Offense falls way back, fanbase convinced younger QB is answer to all their problems, defense is elite or okay depending on how many of the 2016 stars returned instead of going to the NFL. 8-5.
2014: The defense takes a step forward and verges on dominance, with a couple issues holding them back from all-consuming destroyers. One is the lack of a A-level pass rusher as Clark falls just short.
On the other side of the ball, social order begins to break down as energy costs soar after a terrorist dirty bomb makes large sections of the Arabian penninsula uninhabitable. Outbreaks of a radically mutated strain of flu begin hewing down not only the old and young but 5% of healthy adults.
|Think of Michigan's defense and offense of the future as an elite tennis prep school developing pros on one court and playing Eschaton on the other.|
2015: Michigan takes some hits in the front seven with Beyer, Morgan, Clark, and Ryan leaving, but gets the entire secondary back save Raymon Taylor. Michigan should be fine on the line with a senior version of Bolden coming through, or possibly Gedeon; Pipkins will be a senior, Ojemudia... Charlton... With the Heininger Certainty Principle in effect, there is little dropoff, and possibly an out and out elite unite.
On offense, martial law is instituted by the United States after energy riots break out. Inner cities erupt in turmoil as most can barely afford to feed themselves on repurposed envirogruel that McDonald's swears is not people. Weakened by a lack of nutrition, disease spreads, mutating in the loamy soil of the weakened human body until it becomes both lethal... and capable of reanimating its victims as shambling disease carriers.
2016: The defense is very good.
Chaos. War breaks out as countries scramble for dwindling resources. Nuclear exchanges are had between Pakistan and India. China bombs itself, then bombs the US; the US retaliates massively. Radioactive corpses are reanimated by the disease and used by belligerents as shock troops, herded by doomed slaves soon to join the undead hordes. Eventually, what was civilization stops kicking its own dead body, and flops to the ground.
2017: Perhaps a small step back on defense.
In the bombed out wasteland on offense, a band of survivors fends off robotic horrors and radiation to begin anew. We fade to black as the attractive but disheveled love interest waters the first green shoot that will become a new civilization.
BiSB: Truth be told, I don't have the first clue. Most of the ingredients are there for a stable, successful program. The defense looks for all the world to be on an upward trajectory, recruiting is still going gang-busters, and they have enough offensive talent (ON PAPER) to overcome most schematic deficiencies. Michigan's prospects for the next four years rely more than most teams on their ability to identify talent on the offensive side of the ball. Some coaches (Narduzzi and Mattison come to mind) just plug Random Next Guy Up into their systems and make magic happen, so for them the expected drop-off of a missed evaluation is minimal. Most coaches see a relatively straight line correlation between Quality of Jimmys/Joes and Success of X's/O's. It's becoming more clear by the day that Borges is the kind of guy who NEEDS superior talent to succeed, but if he has it, he can do a great deal with it. If the '13 offensive line crop doesn't pan out, or if Shane Morris and/or Wilton Speight can't do what the coaches expect, then we're looking seriously at the prospect of becoming Florida.
|Dude, I just blew up Twitter. Yeah, I used your emoticons—people didn't know what hit them. Ha!|
'14 should be pretty decent. Losses on the defensive side of the ball will be minimal, and with the addition of guys like Jabrill Peppers (LALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU LALALA), the defense should be really, really good. The offense will probably be better, given that (a) Devin won't be that Jolly Rancher that is still in the wrapper but was clearly dropped and maybe stepped on so when you open the package all the Jolly Rancher dust falls out, (b) the return of Amara Darboh, the further maturation of Funchess and the addition of Drake Harris will probably cancel out the loss of Jeremy Gallon and remember-when-we-used-to-use-this-guy Drew Dileo, and (c) the offensive line can't POSSIBLY be this bad next year. What's that? You've heard that before? Well, I mean it this time. For serious. 8 wins because STUPIDEST SCHEDULE EVER and road games suck, setting up...
'15 will be The Year. The offensive line will presumably have the depth and age to remove them as excuses. They'll have a junior 5-star quarterback under center (albeit in his first year as a starter). They'll have Magnuson, Kalis, and Braden in their 4th years in the program and Bosch, Dawson, Kugler, LTT, and Chris Fox in their 3rd years in the program, and Green, Smith, and Harris running behind them. If a coaching staff can't execute the kind of offense they want with THAT group, all hope for competence vanishes. My prediction: solid but below-expectation production and like a 9 win season, questions are temporarily answered, but in a "Hoke has saved himself for the time being" sense. The defense will remain solid, so you'll have that going for you Mrs. Lincoln.
In '16 we will have flying cars. Parking at the stadium will be much easier because you can just hover-park above any Blue lot. For $25. Air space ain't free, yo.
In '17 we will presumably all be dead.
OMG THINGS WILL NOT GET BETTER
Low expectations will lead to unexpected happiness?
yay for chrono trigger?
That has to be the year. Hoke's recruits will be upperclassmen. The offensive "situation" should be sorted out. The defense should be elite.
Whatever change needs to happen regarding the offensive coaches should start to happen on Sunday. Hoke and Brandon should be planning for 2015 now. If they stick with Borges, then so be it with the understanding that if they fire him after 2014 they will have missed an opportunity to get a head start on a season where all of the planets are aligned.
On the other hand, if recruiting keeps pace one could argue that 2017 could be the year too. But I'll be 37 and that's just ridiculous.
with one caveat. Like you I am not really too concerned whether they keep AB or not (I would prefer they went in another direction, but if not, whatever), but they have to get rid of many of the assistants on that side of the ball.
I'm not a football expert, but I would guess that Al is being severely hamstrung by the oline issues this year and if given a decent o-line he can make things happen. Now I'm of the opinion those issues are on him as the OC (as well as the oline coach) but if the big boys decide he keeps his job, fine, but get someone in here that can develop all this young talent we have. It's obvious (to me at least) that development is severely lacking on that side of the ball and needs to be addressed now, not down the road.
If they do decide that is the direction they take I believe with good assistants actually developing these players we have, we can be a very good team even with Al calling the plays. So as long as change does occur this offseason (either the entire staff or just the assistants) I believe we can have a great deal of success as soon as next year.
I care a little bit. I would like to see them let Borges go and bring in an OC that could coach another position besides QB (example: Cristobal could coach OL) so we could hire a dedicated QB coach. I am not married to this concept. I will likely be placated if assistants are let go (read: Funk, probably Jackson).
Wisconsin fired their OL coach after fall camp last year and it worked out.
If you look at the scores, Mattison is a big reason why Borges still has a job.
But for me, it's doubly frustrating. Not only does Mattison keep bailing out Borges (yes it sometimes goes the other way but not nearly as often), the difference between the two amplifies Borges' weaknesses. Mattison takes a bunch of middling prospects and gives them a scheme they can execute with good results. He doesn't have an elite defense yet but he gets the absolute most out of the talent he has. This is something Borges flat-out can't do.
Frankly I don't give a rat's ass what Borges can do with elite talent. Michigan hasn't had elite offensive talent for a while, and there's no guarantee the future talent will be elite either. Mattison's working wonders with a blue-collar crew, but this is the same guy who was a very respected DC in the NFL so it's not like a high ceiling limits his creativity either. Jabrill Peppers could result in 1997 redux -- a historically good defense carrying a mediocre offense into elite status.
Hoke running recruiting, RichRod coming back to coach offense and Mattison running defense would be a dream team, but as long as we're going to go all Chrono Trigger I'd rather hook up with Lucca than Marle.
If you need elite talent to create good players you should not be coaching a top 10 type of program. (not that we are that sort of program at this juncture but all the resources are there for that to happen) Sometimes the best coaches are those who have very average players to work with and turm them into very good (NOT great) players versus guys who get very good players and turn them into ...well very good players. That seems to be part of UM's problem for going on 15 years.
I coached travel youth teams in a different sport and there are certain clubs who get all the talent - does that mean the coaches are epicly great? Or do they benefit from their brand? Meanwhile coaches in my sphere of clubs you could easily identify which ones were good because you could see the major progression when you played them on X date versus X+3 months later. Some of the UM staff now and in the past 15 years reminds me of those high end club sport coaches - they benefit from brand but you don't necessarily see much they do with those players. They acquire talent - don't develop it. So why should you keep going with that type of coach rather than one at a lower level who can create constant improvement?
Turning back to football, of course identifying position coaches at mid level schools who can turn average into very good is not easy. A lot of variables to control for. But if you give those types of staff a better starting line (better raw talent to work with) and they would do very good things - this is currently what the MSU defense is all about.
Michigan football is like Chrono Trigger....I barely remember how awesome it was.
My son might be losing his 3DS while I stroll down memory lane.....Now if only we could figure out this Michigan football mess.
I think you mean "Epoch"
You're worried about air space? Try just clean air aint cheap yo.
I have no idea how you guys are projecting years like 2016 unless it is tongue in cheek. Who knows who develops - no one thought Jake Ryan would be a demon in 2010. Maybe Channing Stribling is a lock down corner. And he is here for 3 more years. And Jabrill decides to come to UM, and we have 2 lockdow corners. I realize it is for amusement but anything past 2014 is plain guesswork and not even educated guesses - other than knowing which players are leaving to graduation we don't know a thing that far out. Maybe York becomes the next Amani Toomer or Dawson and Kugler team up to be 1st team all big 10 in 2015. Maybe Morris is the next Henne....or a complete bust. Who knows. I don't get the point looking out past 1 year.
Idk, I think Brian's offensive outlook was pretty spot on.
And if they switch OC's the general, always bullish consensus natural to fan bases immediately after a change - any change, is UM will be ready to average 40 ppg starting in 2015.
You're saying we won't have flying cars? Sigh.
Lol if we are gonna be winning 8 and 9 games a year for the next 3 or 4 years this staff is toast
I mean the evidence is super obvious. Blindingly so. Borges needs to be out this year and potentially other position coaches on the offensive side of the ball and we need to find Mattison like replacements. People keep saying wellll, we know if you're a true fan when times are tough and you still "support the team". The same expectation goes for coaches. We know if you're a good coach when you make lemonade out lf lemons. Borges needs elite, senior laden squads to be a good coordinator. Mattison took a Gerg cratered defense (although lately I'm thinking it may in fact have been the younger players he had and him being forced to run a scheme he was unfamiliar with) and turned them into a too 25 FEI squad. There is no comparison. If all the coaches were getting the same amount as Mattison gets from his defense I think we'd all be pretty happy with the results even of we weren't always undefeated (which is possible by the way in this craptastic conference as our rival keeps winning).
You could make the argument that Borges needs time for his young bucks to get older. Not so fast. Wojo basically called the coaches out on that in that article from a few weeks ago and explicitly said age is not an excuse. The offense should not be performing this horrendously given the talent that is on that side of the ball. Borges has shown throughout his career when he doesn't have talented seniors running his schemes they fail. Oh yeah it's not like Borges is running a scheme he is unfamiliar with like Gerg so this is potentially a more epic fail by Borges.
Again he is not a bad guy but, yes, we as fans deserve a better offensive coordinator. At least somebody who does enough to get the heck out of the way of the defense.
I was surprised by that Brian was so optimistic on offense.
I basically agree with Seth's predictions, expect I see a better 2015 where an experienced O line helps junior Green become one of those Michigan backs that we will all remember 20 years after he leaves. The dual between Morris and Speight keeps the MoGoBlog communnity divided and arguing (where we are most happy). The defense is excellent and we go to Indy (and maybe that place out west where we used to go, what's it called again?).
Or, DB bows the pressure of the raving masses and fires Hoke after 2014 and we hire Lane Kiffin in which case I give up on football and spend my Saturdays in 2015 doing yard work and going "antiquing" with my wife. (Brandon, for the love all that is good and holy, please do no make me do this.)
I'm glad you all had such gloomy expectations because these future prediction type things are almost always dead wrong.
There's going to be a tough Big Ten schedule in 2016?
I did not know.
Amazing how far we've fallen since August. It seems not long ago with the recruiting success and lofty expectations that there was a lot of talk on this site about "keeping up with the Bamas".
Almost all of the doom and gloom above stems from offensive woes largely tied to Borges. I would be interested to see the opinions revised under the hypothetical that we bring in a legit OC after this season who improves that side of the ball dramatically, a la Mattison.
I know it seems unlikely that Hoke lets Borges go after this season, but I'm holding out hope that he can read the writing on the wall that the longer he holds onto Al, the hotter his own seat will get if projections like those above come to fruition.
"Amazing how far we've fallen since August. It seems not long ago with the recruiting success and lofty expectations that there was a lot of talk on this site about "keeping up with the Bamas"."
One switch of the OC and the same peeps will be talking about NC aspirations in 2015-2016.
The mob is "fickle".
Yup, time to fire up Chrono Trigger again
I found it interesting that the reason Peppers was interested in looking around was because he was not sure Hoke would be around next year.
so, no mention of a B10 title. or even a division title? from anyone?
I kind of think it's important to give those, so hear goes:
2014: brutal B10 road schedule (and OOC for that matter) supresses any significant improvement in record to a minimal value: say 8 wins, 5-3 in B10 at best. No CFB playoof berth. that basically means we don't even contend for the division- best case, we go into columbus next year needing to win and MSU/someone else to to lose for us to get a few tiebreakers in our favor to reach the B10 title game. and that's assuming OSU or MSU stumbles along the way (which isn't the pattern of those teams thus far). Defense and Offense go about as expected: still too young on O, D is close to elite. contending for B10 tile we all hoped for... not there.
2015: the year everyone points to. pressumed continuity in coaches and personnel and scheme in year 5. lots of 4th and 5th year players. schedule eases up, all the recruiting prowess is actually on the field. quality depth beind that. Problem1: New starter at QB, (in fact, not a single snap of meaningful experience is at the QB position at this point-if we're lucky). Problem2: some losses defensively, but depth and presumed talent are there to step in. I'd expect the offense underperforms due to INTs stemming from QB experience, and hence a general "play it tight to the vest b/c our QB is inexperienced" pattern emerges on O. Maybe this will work well given the strength of the D. Hoke maybe pulls out a few agressive decisions as he is wont to do. probably a mildly surprising non-conf loss at the beginning of the year due to Morris growing pains, but we legit contend for the division (not running away or clinching a week early), which comes down to the OSU game in A2. we pull it out to get to the title game, making Hoke 2-3 vs OSU and 1-3 vs Meyer. 11-2 or 10-3, 7-1 or 6-2 in B10.CFB playoff berth assumed. Juggernaught we all hoped for by now.... not quite.
2016: We are there offensively but still not quite what many would want. defense seems to be consistently good, about 2013 level at worst, hopefully. tough road games, but we legit contend for division title. maybe we get it, maybe not. 10wins. playoff berth maybe? Juggernaught we all hoped for by now.... not quite but at least we're matching the early-mid Carr era wheelhouse in terms of results .
2017: see 2016
Now, basically it's Carr-era results at best, IMO. The variables are:
1) OSU: will the Meyer train keep rolling the way the Tressel train did? Sadly, it probably does. they won't win 25 straight, or 8 out of 9 agianst M, but will always reach 10-11 wins per year and Meyer keeps a solid 2-3 games above 500 vs M for his career.
2) MSU/PSU: PSU: obvs, but can MSU really contend with M and OSU in this division? will they actually make a leap to consistent 8-10 win seasons? at this point, maybe we should be asking if M can compete with MSU and OSU in this division.
3) CFB playoff: anything can happen with this and if Hoke & Co can get a couple wins in a limited # of opportunities (and OSU falters say) that would legitimately change perceptions.
tl;dr: starting next year with the new division and CFB playoff, what should "success" be defined as for M assuming Carr-era results (9-11 wins out of 13)? Is it winning the division? is it winning the B10 title game? its it winning a game in the CFB playoff?
IMO: M needs to win the division every year b/c the title game is a one-game 50-50 shot, and don't we want to win the B10 more years than not? maybe it's more reasonable to expect to at least seriously contend for the division such that it comes down to the OSU game as the deciding factor... still, that 's a 50-50 division win rate at best and a 50-50 B10 title game win rate, which boils down to a B10 title once every 4 years, on average.
Living in North Jersey/NY metro I tune in WFAN for sports talk radio. The other day after another brutal NY Jets loss I was listening to the Mike Francessa Show (considered top sports talk jock in NY) while Jets fans were trashing their team and its head coach Rex Ryan. Francessa made an interesting comment regarding Ryan that seemed just as apt for Hoke.
It was not anything that hasn't been said on this message board before at some point. But as I listened I thought how eerily similar the situations of Ryan and Hoke are, including the bitching and moaning by the fans.
To paraphrase Francessa's comment - Ryan needs to be more connected to the offense. Rex is a brilliant defensive coach (which most agree), but he's the head coach and is responsible for both sides of the team, cannot ignore the offesnive side of the ball and needs to become more involved in it etc., etc. Ryan, like Hoke, spends most of his time with the D.
I'm not at practice for either team, so I can't say how much time they spend on their team's offense or even if it's enough time whatever amount they do, but clearly with this organizational structure the offenses for both teams appear to have suffered. And equally clear on both the college and pro levels of football this approach creates a serious dichotomous preception for the bigger picture of a well integrated team.
Hoke, like Ryan, also has been ripped in the media and message boards for their approach to head coaching.
Hoke, like Ryan, yes, is a CEO type coach and many of those types are successful. But executive leadership - team head coach or company CEO - should never appear to lack oversight, nor appear to be farmed out carte blanche to another C-suite executive - e.g. in Hoke's case with OC Borges.
I'm not sure how you get Hoke to understand that concept. As a former CEO of a fairly high profile company, perhaps it's a role Brandon can play to get Hoke to fully understand his role as a head coach vs. a teching asssitant coach. Equally important the way Hoke is perceived now is damaging the UM brand.
GO BLUE! BEAT OHIO1
But I admire the clarity with which he illustrated his point.
On a completely different note, of all the jobs out there, is the most likely for Narduzzi really Purdue after the first year of their new coach?
I didnt understand that comment either. I realize Purdue is a joke but how can you fire a coach in college in a year when the freshman are not even (mostly) his own recruits, not to mention any other class.
Narduzzi has a small window of teams, relatively, he will care to bother with. With what happened to Enos and Treadwell I don't see any reason he'd bother with the MAC and most of those probably would be a pay drop or equal for a lot more stress. And he is not going to get a top end job without 4-5 years of experience. So he has a window of the Pitt, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Cincinnati type - which are actually great first HC jobs since it means you skipped the Mountain West or MAC or whatever. Or put more simply just about any job in the newfangled AAC conference is where I'd see him.
Seth is being political with this grade, but I will agree (since I nominated Seth for Emporer last week). Its incomplete until the decision on Borges is announced. ANYTHING short of having Borges leave the Michigan football program, will leave Hoke with a D grade in my book. His recruiting is the ONLY saving grace from an F being given.
This is quite the downfall from 2011, when frankly he led the entire class with an A+ grade. Of course in that year, we faked punted, and faked FG'ed and with the exception of being THUGGED at msu and then the "hint" of Borges in the Iowa game (oh what we did not know!) he was life with a lucky charm.
However as "the" head man - he needs to accept the fact that Al Borges is simply unable to meet ANYONES expectations and is clearly UNFIT for the job(s) ... includes QB coach (face it no one would ever think we have a QB coach). Coach Hoke - how can you possibly go into any offensive star's home and tell them that Al Borges is going to be your OFFENSIVE leader? He is the BUTT of all freaking offensive puns and jokes in Pro, College and high school football ... and the time has come to be THE leader of Michigan Football!
Let's hire a DLine coach. Then Hoke can work on the entire team and delve into the offense which needs some of his attention. I think he's worked hard on rush and plugging and it shows. Let's hand the torch off to another DL guy...sorry no names popping up...but you get the idea.
So that would free up Hoke to go work with the OL, something I feel certain he'd be very skilled at. Simply by splitting into smaller groups it might be just the developmental kick we need.
I think Borges can do fine once the offense is Established. But I think he's overwhelmed right now and needs all the help that Hoke can give to bulldoze this tractor out of the mud.
Here is an interesting post from a 49ers fan forum. A few weeks ago, a disgruntled fan looked at possible offensive coordinator candidates (current qb and rb coaches around the NFL) who the 49ers could pursue. Might be relevant to our discussion of who should replace Borges: