The Weekly Maths: One Man Band
Denard is Michigan and Michigan is Denard. The defense has stepped up to mitigate that statement on the team front, but it's more true than ever for the offense. More true than last year, definitely.
One fine gentleman on the internet, known only as @jemather prompted me to look into how true it was for Michigan and how the Wolverine reliance on Denard matched up against other one-man shows.
For methodology I looked at every player who has at least 50 combined rushes and passes this season, that got me a group of 313 players. I then compared what the EV (not opponent adjusted) was for each of the plays where they passed or carried the ball. That number was then compared to the per-play average for every play their team ran that they didn’t pass or rush. Based on this route, Dri Archer of Kent State is college football’s most valuable player on a per-play basis. On 71 plays, Archer averaged 0.54 pts/play while the rest of his teammates averaged 0.04 pts/play on other plays. Coming in second, Denard Xavier Robinson. With a significantly higher 247 plays, Denard has average 0.23 pts/play while the non-Denard portion is a mirrored –0.23 pts/play. The only other major conference player over 0.35 is Kansas State’s Collin Klein at a 0.42 difference.
The concept of team replacement value is probably more true when you combine the per play average with number of plays for a total points added. By this measure, Denard still comes in second to a small college player. This time its quarterback Kolton Browning from Louisiana -Monroe. Browning’s 385 plays push his total value to the Warhawks for the season to 129 points, followed by Robinson’s 114 point contribution to Michigan. Here is your major college top 10.
|2||Collin Klein||Kansas St||213||90|
|4||Matt McGloin||Penn St||318||86|
|5||Logan Thomas||Virginia Tech||275||77|
|7||Taylor Kelly||Arizona St||220||64|
All quarterbacks leading the way. In fact, the top 32 spots all go to quarterbacks, reinforcing my belief that running backs are overrated. Dri Archer is the top running back at 35 points above team average. Venric Mark is the top major college running back at +30 for Northwestern.
The bottom line is that so far this season no player has been more crucial to his team’s success than Denard Robinson. His play hasn’t been perfect but when one player is responsible for half of his team’s points, its probably better to have him in the lineup. I am not looking forward to next year. I am too scared to look at what the best seasons by true freshman quarterbacks have been, but that still might be better than the alternative.
The same concept of most valuable player can be flipped to look at least valuable players. [Ed-S: In baseball they call this the Neifi Perez Factor. e-fact!] These are the players who keeping the ball in their hand is doing the most damage to their own team. It’s not just theoretical, these are the players who on a per play basis are doing less than their teammates are.
|4||Bryn Renner||North Carolina||294||-39|
Again, all quarterbacks. Hope you are enjoying the Vandenberg/Davis era Hawkeyes!
Biggest swing plays
+9%: Gibbons is good from 52 yards to put Michigan on the board
+11%: Martinez fumbles setting up Michigan with a chance for points before the half
+9%: Ojemudia intercepts Martinez
-8%: Martinez to Bell for the opening score
-22%: Bellomy intercepted by Smith and returned 53 yards
-10%: Maher hits from 51 yards
-8%: Bellomy intercepted by Stafford
-All the percents: Denard leaves the game
Denard Robinson: –1, +2%
Russell Bellomy: –12, –40%
Fitzgerald Toussaint: –3, –3%
Defense: +5, +18%
Michigan went into Lincoln as the underdog so the loss doesn’t alter the 8-win most likely projection. The performance did knock the expected win chances for the next three games from the 80’s to the 70’s, along with making Ohio a longer shot. The net effect is that although eight wins is still most likely, the odds of hitting nine wins is greatly reduced and seven wins is very much in play. The model assumes Denard plays the rest of the season but there is a negative portion from the Nebraska game for the time he was out.
Norm Chow is considered an offensive genius but he is apparently still a conventional decision maker when it comes to fourth down. With about six and a half minutes left, Hawaii trailed Colorado State by 8 and faced fourth and six at the Colorado State 39. Rather than push the field position and try to tie the game, Chow elected to punt, ultimately gaining 26 yards of field position. The Rams would take three minutes off the clock and give the Warriors back the ball at their own eight. Hawaii would not go on to win the game. Norm Chow is your Ron Zook Memorial Dumb Punt of the Week Award Winner.
Honorable mention for the week in dumb game theory is a joint award for Charlie Weis and Mack Brown who were simultaneously trying to shoot themselves in the foot at the end of the Kansas’s failed upset bid over Texas.
If you follow me or more likely Brian on twitter, you know that the blog’s current pet peeve is not using your timeouts on defense when the other team is about to score late, even if you lead. Kansas was leading by 3 and Texas had 1st and Goal at the 3 with 1:16 left on the clock. Texas only had one timeout left so there were two possible outcomes, Texas scores or is stopped. If Texas is stopped, Kansas can run out the clock, there is no downside to Kansas keeping more time on the clock. If Texas scored, the time becomes valuable to Kansas, not Texas. With 1:16 left on the clock and one timeout. Texas has plenty of time to make whatever play calls they want and an incentive to burn the clock. Kansas responds to this situation by not using their timeouts, not after a first down rush and not after a second down rush. Texas responds by rushing to the line each time. The good news for Longhorn fans is they scored a touchdown with only 8 seconds left. The bad news is that they shouldn’t have had to rush, especially with a timeout in their pocket. Kansas should have received the ball with just under a minute left instead of 8 seconds. The good news is that Kanas had two timeouts to use when they took over at their own 27 with 8 seconds left.
A game that seemed like a laugher not that long ago is all of the sudden close enough to be nervous. What does Michigan get out of its quarterback? If it's anything close to regular Denard the offense should be fine this week. If not, then who knows. After losing two quarterbacks, Minnesota has found two solid starts from Phillip Nelson, the only Gopher QB to post two positive games this season. The Michigan defense controls the game but the offense is unable to blow the game open.
Michigan 21 Minnesota 15