Weekend Deathmatch: Dawkins Versus MAAR Versus Everybody Comment Count

Brian

Michigan is bringing in not one but two basketball recruits this weekend as they seek to fill the holes NBA attrition has wrought on the roster. Michigan now has two slots open and possibly a third depending on the status of Austin Hatch. They will seek to fill at least one spot, obviously. A second late offer is less likely, but if you can get a transfer like Eron Harris

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…you get a guy like Eron Harris. Ditto Sean Obi. Guys with 31% DREB rates don't grow on trees.

But neither of those guys is on campus this weekend. Two gentlemen are.

Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman

UMHoops put together a scouting video from an array of clips available on the internet. The first four minutes, which all come from one high school game, is the most illuminating:

Try to remember as you are watching this that it is high school and in high school many, many shots are flat-out terrible. Googling Aubrey Dawkins for the next section I discovered that his high school career ended when his team scored five points in the first half and ended up going down 35-25.

Anyway: MAAR's shot selection here would be terrible except he's in high school and the shots he's getting off are probably better than wide open looks from a number of his teammates. And he puts down a lot of his terrible, terrible shots. It's the open ones, whether it's at the free throw line or generally, that seem to need work. As UMHoops notes, one of the games here features five threes from MAAR, which is a major outlier for a guy who hit 1.9 a game.

Aubrey Dawkins

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I do not want to guess at the collective net worth of the families represented here

Unfortunately there's not any equivalent video of Dawkins out there where you can see the overall shape of his game. There are only the highlight videos in which he never misses and dunks everything.

In them you do get some information. Dawkins has a diversity to his layup game, capable of getting off shots quickly when he gets to the rim from a variety of angles. His three point stroke is pretty high and decently fast. And he has impressive hops. Not GRIII level, but he'd probably be the most athletic dude on the team. He has that airborne pause you see sometimes where the guy takes his time dunking because he can. He can be an above the rim guy; MAAR is not.

Like many guys available late, Dawkins took a prep year after his high school career. That paid off with a scholarship offer to Dayton recently and now bigger outfits are sniffing around. As of last year, Dawkins was a two-star to ESPN who was Just A Shooter on the college level:

If Dawkins wants to take his game to another level, he must get better handling pressure while dribbling. His handle can get sloppy when defenders get into him-especially when he goes left. His jump shot is solid, but as he gets stronger it needs to get more consistent for the scoring guard position.

He's added a crossover to his game, it seems; he's probably more Hardaway than Stauskas or LeVert in terms of ability to create shots inside the rim.

While Dawkins took a prep year, MAAR's also older, so that's a wash.

New Challengers Appear

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you're supposed to put them on your eyes bro

On the other hand, Michigan might be amenable to a fifth-year transfer who would not interfere with whatever they're planning for the roster down the road. When Ace took a look at available fifth years the pickings were slim; they've just gotten less so:

USC’s leading scorer, Byron Wesley, is has left the program because he was uncomfortable over his role next season, according to sources close to the situation.

Wesley, who could not be reached for comment, is considering Big Ten schools Indiana and Michigan and should be immediately eligible since he expects to graduate from USC this summer.

The 6'5" Wesley was impressively efficient for a miserable USC outfit, hitting 72/50/34 from the floor with high usage and taking care of the ball as the Trojans' undisputed go-to guy.

The question is whether Michigan can offer him the kind of role he wants with LeVert and Irvin slotted into the 2 and 3. This is a guy coming off 32 minutes a game; he's not going to want to be a 20 minute backup, and incredibly that's probably what he would be even after Michigan got raided by the NBA unless Irvin gets a lot of minutes at the 4. I know he was just a freshman but that seems like a pretty bad idea to have a guy with a DREB rate south of Nnanna Egwu playing your second-biggest spot on the floor.

If Wesley was three inches taller they'd be all over him; as it is, Sam Webb mentioned on WTKA that chatter about Wesley is coming from California, not locally. One dollar says Wesley's camp knows Nik Stauskas is NBA-bound but not much else about Michigan's situation.

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Cole Huff is a large man who can stroke threes, but he's no center

A gentleman who is three inches taller is expressing similar transfer interest. He is Nevada F Cole Huff: 

FWIW, Huff was restricted from transferring basically anywhere on the West Coast, a restriction later lifted—but before that tweet from his AAU coach.

The catch here is that the stated reason for Huff's transfer was to play the 3, which he thinks is his NBA position. This is not likely to happen at Michigan, but if the real reason is "I hate my coach" or "I want to play in the tournament" or something then M would have a real shot.

At first blush, Huff looks like a good fit, an 82/50/40 shooter at 6'8" with a low turnover rate and a pretty good 14% DREB rate. Huff is in the same eligibility spot as Eron Harris: he'd have to sit next year and then would have two to play. At 205 he is probably a 3/4 at Michigan except in desperate situations, so his attractiveness depends largely on how plausible Mark Donnal is at the 5.

The fit is also less than ideal here since Huff has to sit out a year and duplicates a number of skills already on Michigan's roster in a way a rebound vacuum like Sean Obi does not. But Obi might go off the board to Duke this weekend and Michigan hasn't been involved just yet, so perhaps they perceive their needs differently than they look from the outside.

Comments

alum96

April 18th, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^

"At 205 he is probably a 3/4 at Michigan except in desperate situations, so his attractiveness depends largely on how plausible Mark Donnal is at the 5." 

Why?

Doyle in 2015-2016 should be getting 20 minutes a night at 5.  Donnal 20 minutes a night at 4, and 10 at 5.  Huff than can play 20 minutes at 3 giving us a very tall lineup.  If Irvin is still around he can slide to 2 and Chatman / Huff /DJ Wilson compete for minutes at 3.  Wilson and Huff can get some minutes at 4.  We don't have traditional roles - this was a team where GR3 was a 4, as was Novak.  Some of thsee pieces are interchangeable (outside of 5 and 1) 

I don't see Donnal needing to be a 5 being a issue for Huff with Doyle around.  And at this point we have to assume any potential star who flashes as a freshman is headed to the NBA post sophomore until proven otherwise, so there is a realistic chance Irvin leaves in 12 months leaving us even more room for Huff at these positions.

UMaD

April 18th, 2014 at 12:48 PM ^

I agree there is a lot of flexibility here, so the roles depend on your assumptions about people who haven't played college bball yet. 

Personally, I don't see Wilson being anything other than a 4.  Adding Huff would probably block Wilson and push Donnal off his optimal position as well.  Chatman may be a 4-man also.  If Huff was immediately eligible he'd be a lot more attractive to Michigan.  As is, we should be fine at 3-4 for the next couple years. 

It's center that is the question until Doyle shows what he can do.  And even if he's a beast we need a backup beyond Bielfeldt and Donnal.  I'm hoping the lack of concern about center means McGary is back.

alum96

April 18th, 2014 at 1:46 PM ^

I think one issue is everyone is projecting X player to be here for 3-4 years.  Other than guys like Spike we really cannot be making these assumptions any more. It is just is the reality of the NCAA, and the coaching staff's job of development.  Huff will be a 2 year player when he gets here.  No one knows if he will stay 2 years or 1.  No one knows if Donnal will be here more than 2 more years (i.e. thru Huff's first year if he came).  No one knows what Wilson will be.  Maybe he is a 4 who is a bench player.  Maybe he explodes and is gone in 2 years.  Or 3. 

There is a lot of stress on these posts about where to fit people.  We need as many good players as possible and they will self select where they end up on the court and for how much time.  Huff is a semi polished experienced college player who still has upside.  I would not say NO to him at any position so that an unproven player from HS might roadblock him.

He is a 82% FT shooter, a 45% FG%, a 40% 3 pt shooter, who apparently has some handle to his game per reports.  If I didnt tell you how tall he was and just gave you those shooting stats you'd think he was a 2.  If you add a kid who is going to add 10 lbs sitting out a year to a 6'8 frame, and who already rebounds 5 per game to that package of shooting stats - I'd say there are not many of those kids out there period and certainly not many who are "free agents". 

He can be a nice combo 3/4 and if its 15 minutes at 3 or 4 and 10 minutes at the other - who cares.  Beilein obviously likes him as UM was one of 5 schools who put a claim in, so get him here and the rest takes care of itself.  Stressing about how many minutes he will get in 18 months is useless in this program since we have no idea who will even be on our roster that far out.  It is not like football.

With UM basketball right now I cannot even project out more than 12 months - everyone though Nik was a 3 year player last year.  No one thought Caris would be putting his name in the advisory committee after his 10 min and 2 ppg freshman year.  Etc. 

UMaD

April 18th, 2014 at 2:38 PM ^

Totally agree that we can't assume people will be around for 4 years and fit X roles for multiple seasons. BUT - it's exceedingly unlikely we don't have a strong 4-man on this roster the season after next, given all the options.

Huff sounds like a great fit, in terms of ability and skill, but I think Beilein likes to operate with honesty and transperency.  Adding a guy like him could look like a roadblock to Wilson, Chatman, Donnal or others. (i.e., not what they signed up for.)  Not saying avoid the guy, just that it may not be a need with a bunch of other 4's POTENTIALLY already in place...

In general, I agree with you and certainly would not say no to Huff.  It's just a situation that would have to be managed a bit whereas grabbing a 5 or a wing-guard would not be, because of the immediate roster needs.

PurpleStuff

April 18th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^

He made 24 three pointers this year and 23 last year.  Aaron Craft made 26 as a freshman (at 37.7%), 23 as a sophomore (at 35.9%), and 27 as a junior.  The guy is not a fit for what Michigan does offensively, which would explain why no one who is actually from UM has any interest in bringing him on board.

PurpleStuff

April 18th, 2014 at 12:54 PM ^

And he's a point guard.  And he makes his teammates better by putting them in positions to score.

Wesley had 49 fewer assists than Stauskas last year.  And 40 fewer than LeVert.

He is not good at basketball.  He just took a lot of shots on a bad team and is leaving because better players are coming in as freshmen or coming off transfer redshirts at USC.

UMaD

April 18th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^

I haven't watched Wesley much, so I won't make a strong argument, but Wesley had an excellent PER (15th in the Pac 12) - better than Dekker, Ferrell, Robinson, Crawford, LeVert.

  And who was Wesley supposed to pass to?  That USC team was a trainwreck and probably not real fun to play on. Nobody else (save one bench player) shot even 33% from 3.

There's a pretty good chance that if you assume he has a decent skillset his efficiency will improve dramatically under Beilein and surrounded by people like Walton, LeVert, Irvin, McGary, etc. instead of the schlubs he was trying to compete with last year.

As an adide - The Craft comparison was yours.  My point was a non-shooter can help Michigan and Michigan actively pursues these kind of players.

WolvinLA2

April 18th, 2014 at 1:32 PM ^

Look - if ir turns out we just have an open spot that would otherwise go unused and he wants to come, fine.  But I agree, he's not an ideal option.  He was a decent player that would not be a starter on our team.  He would be a fine rotation wing player, but I also don't think he wants that.  

I would rather take a recruit who we can develop because we don't need a starter this year and I'd rather have a kid who will be around for a bit.  If we bring in Wesley and he's a back up for a year, then we need to replace him with another recruit who might take a year or two to mature, rather than a guy like Dawkins who will be an old sophomore in 2015-2016 ready to contribute heavily.

alum96

April 18th, 2014 at 1:49 PM ^

Yes. There have no tea leaves for Wesley from the Michigan side.  It is just fans pointing to a high scoring "free agent" at this time.  The other kids there has been obvious interest from UM so let's not get so focused on a player who at this point it appears the coaching staff has not targeted.

UMaD

April 18th, 2014 at 2:41 PM ^

He's a high quality, experienced proven performer that could inject some depth into our rotation for one season.  The risk is minimal, the benefit is potentially huge.  Worth exploring IMO.

Our staff may not be interested, but on paper he'd make an excellent addition.

PurpleStuff

April 18th, 2014 at 4:24 PM ^

I've watched 60-70% of Wesley's games the last two years.  If he was "high quality" I would not be turning my nose up at the guy.  Watching him play as opposed to watching THJ/Stauskas/LeVert play is night and day difference.

Beilein's offense is predicated on spreading the floor and viewing open 3's as good shots.  You mentioned Manny Harris, who wasn't a fantastic outside shooter, but he made twice as many as Wesley.  If Wesley's percentage is higher, it is because like Craft he only shoots them when he is ridiculously wide open, and even then he often passes up that look.  Wesley is a guy defenses sagged off of and who ended up as the dude with the ball at the end of the shot clock because, as you pointed out, his teammates were for the most part even worse options.  Then he would barrel into the lane and throw up a runner or try to get fouled. 

All of his stats/success come because he played on a shitty team with no offensive flow.  Those opportunities wouldn't be there for him at Michigan, assuming he can even see the court ahead of a guy like Chatman.  He can be an effective player at a certain level of play, but that level is not where Michigan has been the last two years, or even the last six.

UMaD

April 18th, 2014 at 2:32 PM ^

a) We need another wing-guard who can help immediately (backup or starter)

b) That help is unlikely to be a freshman (most 2-star types aren't ready to compete at this level and benefit from a redshirt - it's obviously not impossible, but spike and caris are exceptions for different reasons)

c) We have room to take both an experienced transfer and a freshman we can develop.  These aren't mutually exclusive propositions.  I'd rather take one marginal recruit than two to keep our options open for future classes.

UMaD

April 18th, 2014 at 12:43 PM ^

Last year Irvin backed up the 2-4 positions and got 15 mpg.  If we landed Wesley,  he could reprise that role, maybe adding 5-10 minutes at the 4 to get up ot 20-25, but he wouldn't necessarily have to start. We're all expecting a leap from Irvin, but it's not a given.

Also not a given - Wesley's motivation wrt his "role".  He might just want to play for a winning team that goes deep in the tourney.  Especially if McGary returns, Michigan offers a nice platform to shine.

Leaders And Best

April 18th, 2014 at 1:07 PM ^

The game most of those highlights were pulled from was MAAR's final game as a HS player in a loss in the PA state tournament semifinals to the eventual state champs. The team they lost to had a 4 star PG that signed with Miami (YTM) and some other D-I prospects so the level of competition in those highlights was decent for the HS level.

Roanman

April 18th, 2014 at 1:15 PM ^

I'm taking Dawkins on the strength of pedigree and hops.

Hops being one of those things along with speed and quickness that can be improved upon in the weight room, but not taught.

I consider Johnny Dawkins to be a cut above nearly all of the great point guards in NCAA history, as he just plain dominated from the point in much the same way Trey did. We're doing pretty well with second generation prospects. Unless he manages to somehow alienate everyone in the program over the course of a two day trip, I say sign him.

Roanman

April 18th, 2014 at 3:37 PM ^

Pedigree and HOPS!!!

The HOPS of course being a function of pedigree as Johnny Dawkins at 6'2" or so and having way hops of his own, routinely finished above the rim. I have a distinct memory of Dawkins getting a step on Isaiah Thomas and just exploding to the rim, forearm high and so fast that Laimbeer couldn't get there to hack him.

It was all good, being Bad Boys they got him later.