http://recruiting.scout.com/2/857914.html javarie johnson commits
we got a LB commit
I can't read his comments since I'm not a paying customer, but the title of his post implies that reports of a commitment are premature.
yeah i just saw that apparently lichenfels or whatever was wrong and it came from his coach well that is dumb right after i post it.
I'm somewhat surprised that we are getting so many early recruit commitments, especially in April. We just have to have a decent season to get these guys to stay on board.
between early verbals and later de-commitments. Out of the total number of decommitments by all schools, what percentage are by guys who verballed more than six months prior to their signing day, as opposed to those who verballed one month or less prior?
Um, who? Did a quick googlestalk:
Johnson is from DC, 6'4" 208. Fake 40 time: 4.5. Unrated by Rivals, 3 Star according to Scout, has offers from UConn, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, New Mexico, NC State and West Virginia.
is less fake than most, dude can move
Dude's fake 40 time still is quite fake.
Assumption 1: Dude is at max speed at distances beyond 40yd.
Assumption 2: Dude starts all sprints <= 100m the same way.
Dude's top speed: Dude covered the 45m between 55m and 100m in 4.56s. So Dude's top speed is 9.868 m/s.
36.576m in 40yds, so Dude spent 1.867s running the 18.424m between 36.576m and 55m.
Dude's bastardized 40 time: 6.90s-1.867s = 5.033s
Also, many sprinters are at NOT at top speed at the end of 40 yds. His 40 time is likely to be higher.
tl;dr: fake 40 times are fake.
You're calculating max speed from a huge portion of the race. You're assuming that once the runner hits max speed he holds it for the remainder of the race. In fact, runners do not hold their top speed for very long at all. They hit it around 40 like you say, but then they tail off fairly significantly. The ones that tail off the least are the better runners. Even in the Olympics. There was a huge display on this at some science museum I went to when i was like 12 or so.
I know you're doing a "guesstimate", but if your error is even at 10% then his fake 40 time is not statistically out of the range of your predictive model. 5.033 +/- .5 = 4.5-5.5
Even worse, I'm also comparing two different races. But do my assumptions account for over a half second discrepancy in a short race like the 40?
FTR, I did say that it was bullshit math.
I did it because I was bored and thought about:
Denard's 4.4 40 and 10.3 100m
Dude's 4.5 40 and 11.46 100m
You're right, my "max speed" assumption probably makes Dude's top speed slower than what it truly is. However, if that is the case, It would make his calculated 40 time slower, meaning that more (of his 6.90 55m) time is used in the beginning parts of the race.
Unless you're setting up integrals of some kind and really going into it, your error will be too big to account for the real/fake time discrepancy involved here. Thats my main point.
I really only brought this up so that no one would say, "OMG 5.0+ 40 time means RR is desperate and we should offer studs like barry sanders. alabama is doing it!"
There are too many people around here who think that way aren't there? Well, hopefully your post deterred their idiot strike.
40 time for a LB only matters if he is on kick coverage. As long as he can tackle, who really cares what his 40 time is.
So it doesn't matter if he's fast enough to pursue a running back to the sideline? Makes no difference? Good to know.
Vince Young, Troy Smith, Drew Stanton, Juice Williams, Terrell Pryor and every other mobile QB who has gashed our defense over the last few years agrees with you.
Unless I'm mistaken, one of those names is not like the others
When did Drew "take the ball, just don't hurt me" Stanton "gash" our defense?
I agree with you on how Young, Smith, Williams, and Pryor have gashed us pretty well but I just don't agree on Stanton. According to the old box scores on Mgoblue Stanton did rush for over 130 yards over the span of three games against us but he never did beat UM. I guess I'm just saying if you haven't beat us you haven't done too good of a job gashing us.
Until he was injured in the Braylon-fest game, he was absolutely destroying us.
Thanks for pointing that out. I wasn't really into college football back then and that's why I had to rely on stats more than memory. All I really know about Stanton is from with his time with the Lions and that has been less than impressive to say the least.
Back then? It was only 5 years ago.
I know it's not that long ago but I only followed the Red Wings and a little bit of the NFL while I was growing up. I really didn't care about college football until I transferred to UM from community college. The first Michigan game I ever went to was the 2006 season opener against Vanderbilt and from then on I was hooked on the sport. Now I bleed maize and blue but I still don't know much about Michigan football pre 06.
I was just giving you a hard time. Go Blue.
his forty time IS fake, i'm just saying it's LESS fake than most reported 40 times. he's still fast
well as of now there trying to figure out if the kid is just wanting to talk to his parents or something before making it public so im not sure if we did or not. hopefully we did we need some LB's
Yay for us to get a LB, but I really don't like being the first big offer for a kid. It sits a little better with me when M beats out an SC or an LSU instead of New Mexico State.
It's still early. A lot of big offers come late when the teams you mentioned whiff on a five star they were crossing their fingers for. If that was his final offer list (and if he actually committed, it might be), that's a little different.
On a side note, many coaches know that getting in early on a kid is a pretty successful strategy. The wild card is the favorite/home team. Since he's a DC kid and MD and ILL have already offered (and he didn't commit) it puts M in a good position when the bigger schools come calling.
Yeah, this is a pretty good offer sheet — he's clearly not a first-choice for big programs, but about eight other BCS schools saw enough promise to offer him this early. If he wants to come to Michigan and buys into Rich Rod's system, he's worth taking. (Especially when we need defense and have extra scholarships.)
this is flawed logic. The way you get kids like this is to build a relationship with them early, offer first, and then when the LSUs and SCs of the world come knocking, you already have a head start, or maybe even a commitment.
well he is the 21 best olb right now according to scout and we did beat out wvu and msu.
The fake 40, low weight, and meh rankings remind me a bit of Brandin Hawthorne who went quickly from "guaranteed redshirt" to "likely contributor at SS/LB hybrid."
I'm wondering if the staff recruits specifically for such hybrid positions, or whether they take guys they like and then just move them around in whatever combination works best.
I like that we're getting in on the talent-rich DC-MD-VA area. PSU and Illinois have been doing very well there. Having said that, I bet Johnson knows that future first rounders and Dunbar stars Arrelious Benn and Vontae Davis are doing just fine at Illinois. And so are the other 3 or so Dunbar kids they have on the team.
VERY suspicious of a placeholder commit here. Guy JUST visited Michigan this weekend, and we all know which visit was a recruit's best: his last one. He's got a lot of pretty good offers but Michigan is clearly the best, although it seems like a couple other top-tier schools are in touch.
TBH if Johnson did actually commit, I'd immediately call him the most likely to decommit later on. Maybe he really has been secretly hoping for a Michigan offer all this time, but there are red flags here.
This entire conversation is moot, since the kid apparently did not commit.
JJ isn't on board...
@Wolverswede: go study some biochem.
By the way, I'm in the basement of the ugli. I brought a biochem exam from wsu; I think you would find it amusing.
im in the basement of the ugli too. weeeird
I won't be in aa until tomorrow, but hold onto it for me. I would very much like to see it.
Always fun watching Scout eat their shit. They try so hard to be the first on everything and in the process have to retract a number of stories. It has been odd to see them break a commitment then have to wait a day or two to see the news show up on Rivals, or sometimes not at all when there isn't even a story.
tom hagan's fake 40 time is 4.47.
Scout is now reporting that he is confirmed. They also make mention of two recruits coming up for "impromptu" visits including FL CB Spencer Boyd. I thought that was last weekend. I can't tell anything from Scout.
Confirmed??? that he is committed or not???
The dumb asses at Scout haven't updated the site, but if you look at the main news page, it talks about his decision timeline and such. I don't have an account, but they have written additional stories rebutting the earlier stuff.
this whole Javarie Johnson thing is that it happened so soon after all the sycophants on Scout posted a thread sucking each other's dicks for being the first to report Marvin Robinson's commitment, and accusing Rivals of encouraging their members steal Scout information and post it on Rivals.