Upon Further Review: Rudock vs Illinois Comment Count

Brian

THING NOTES: Illinois, you will be shocked to learn, is not good at the football. Rudock was under siege before and after this game; in this one he occasionally got a rusher after a beat or two but was otherwise unmolested. His receivers also got open some, which is a notable change. This is the version of Rudock that Michigan will see if the other parts of the offense go as well as possible.

CHRONOLOGY NOTES: This was before the Wisconsin and Nebraska games, after Maryland and Illinois.

[After THE JUMP: Mike Dudek vs Everybody]

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M31 2 4 I-Form twins 2 1 2 4-3 over Pass Waggle FB flat Kenny 18
Illinois elects not to cover the FB; Rudock slings it around a DE who is pressuring with his sidearm delivery. Kenny can turn it up for a solid gain, (CA, 3, protection N/A)
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 0-0, 11 min 1st Q. The rest of the drive is all run; Illinois stuffs a fourth and goal attempt from the one.
O35 3 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Seam Martin-Manley Inc
A seam very similar to the one mentioned in the Nebraska UFR; KMM has basically no separation, but this time the attempt at a perfect ball is in fact perfect. KMM plays it very poorly, running so that the ball nestles into his chest instead of going up and getting it. That allows the DB to rake it out with ease. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 7 min 1st Q. Illinois does a series of horrible things culminating in an intentional grounding safety. I hope you appreciate that I am exposing myself to lethal levels of Illinois here.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M38 1 10 Ace twins 1 2 2 4-3 over N/A Yakety Snap N/A -2
Ball somehow pops off Rudock's hands on the exchange and Illinois recovers.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 2-0, 4 min 1st Q. Spectacular bomb to Dudek gets Illinois a TD.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M24 2 7 Ace twins twin TE 1 2 2 4-3 over Pass TE out Hamilton 12
One TE runs a shallow cross, which draws just enough attention from a zone corner to open up a deeper out. Rudock reads it and fires out a nice pass in a window that's still very small as a safety comes down. Anything other than a perfect throw gives him a shot at a PBU; he has none. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)
O47 3 4 ??? ? ? ? ??? Pass ? Hamilton Inc
Tape skips ahead to the beginning of the next drive. PBP just says incomplete pass to Hamilton.
Drive Notes: Punt, 2-7, 14 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M33 1 10 Ace twins 1 2 2 4-3 even Pass TE wheel Duzey 44
Nice pocket, plenty of time. Rudock has Duzey with a step or two on a linebacker and throws a fairly accurate pass about 35 yards downfield. It is maybe a little short and to the inside. That's the difference between a DO and a CA. (CA, 2, protection 2/2). Again, the Iowa WR does not try to shield the ball with his body and high point the ball; Duzey gets away with it, but barely.
O23 1 10 Ace big 1 3 1 4-3 under Pass PA TE out Duzey 13
Iowa LG gets discarded after a momentary block and Rudock gets pressure up the gut along with a cornerback coming at him. He stands in the pocket until the last second and delivers a strike with two guys bearing down on him. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2)
O10 1 G I-Form big 2 2 1 4-3 even Pass Waggle scramble Rudock 6
Illinois doesn't have a guy on the corner and everyone looks pretty covered so Rudock takes off almost immediately upon surverying the scene. (SCR, N/A, N/A)
O1 3 G Goal line 2 3 0 Goal line Pass Waggle TE flat Hamilton 1
Easy as Illinois elects not to cover the TE. (CA, 3, protection N/A)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 9-7, 11 min 2nd Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M31 1 10 I-Form 2 1 2 4-3 even Pass Stop and go Martin-Manley 39
KMM helps out on this one, first getting a couple yards of separation on a press corner and then stretching out to make a very good catch on a ball that Rudock overthrew a hair. (CA, 2, protection 2/2). Maybe. KMM isn't fully laid out, he kind of takes a knee.
O32 4 2 Goal line 2 3 0 Goal line Pass PA FB flat Plewa 1
This should be a conversion as it's open for the FB to turn it up but he stumbles. He's off balance and has to catch the ball, which doesn't help him get back on balance, and then he falls over. Oy. (CA, 3, protection N/A)
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 9-7, 6 min 2nd Q. Iowa gets the ball with 90 seconds left in the half.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M24 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Tunnel screen Powell 6
Eh. (CA, 3, screen)
M30 2 4 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Fade Smith Inc
Rudock does punt this up for his guy to make a play on it, so it's not like he never ever does it. Smith misjudges this ball, slowing up as he attempts to high-point it. He slows too much when he has to extend he can only get one hand on it. Ball was there. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
M30 3 4 Shotgun trips bunch 1 1 3 3-3-5 nickel Run Scramble Rudock 20
Rudock doesn't like the bunch as it looks like everyone's covered; Illinois gets out of their lanes on a five man pressure and Rudock blazes up the middle for a big gain. (SCR, N/A, protection 2/2)
50 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Screen Bullock 7
Odd call with 25 seconds in the half but they get away with it. Rudock has to hold the ball a lot longer than he wants to as there are DL in the way; he does find a lane. Bullock gets the edge and a decent gain. (CA, 3, screen)
O43 2 3 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 3-3-5 nickel Pass Dig Smith 15
Lasered in to a gap in the zone; does take Smith off his feet and requires him to dig it out a little bit but still a quality throw. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
O28 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
Ten seconds left on the snap here. Rudock surveys the trips side for three or four seconds but doesn't like anything there; he comes back to Smith by himself and chucks it well wide of him. This is so off it seems like he's just dumping the ball so time doesn't run out, but YMMV as far as IN vs TA goes here. (TA, N/A, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Missed FG(46), 9-7, EOH.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M32 3 6 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 3-3-5 nickel Pass Dig Smith 10
Thrown into heavy traffic as Smith can't shake a press corner. He does shield the dude off. Guy gets a whack at the ball and it pops into the air for a second before Smith re-catches it for the conversion. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
M42 1 10 I-Form 2 1 2 4-3 under Pass Fly Smith Inc
Iowa RT gets shed super quick and Rudock has to let fly, possibly somewhat earlier than he wanted to. He's going for a deep ball because it's relatively safe with no safety over the top; he misses this one by a few yards. (IN, 0, protection 0/2)
O23 4 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 even Pass Hitch Smith Inc
Smith's route is one yard past the sticks and a simple turn around that the corner sniffs out; he gets the PBU. While this is really uninspired playcalling—no rub or anything—Rudock should come off this and look to the trips. Duzey looked open. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 9-7, 10 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M35 3 4 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Drag Martin-Manley 17
Takes a while to develop; Illinois does not cover the flat at all and this is an easy conversion and big gain. (CA, 3, protection 2/2).
O34 1 10 Ace 1 2 2 4-3 even Pass Waggle scramble Rudock 8
They send a corner blitz and still have no one to contain the QB. CB does bail on his blitz and tries to get back out but he gets blocked and it's a quality gain. (SCR, N/A, N/A)
O11 1 10 I-Form 2 1 2 4-3 even Pass Fade Martin-Manley Inc
Rudock leaves this well short. KMM has to try to get over the DB's helmet to catch it; no dice. (IN, 1, protection N/A). This should definitely be a PI flag.
O6 3 5 Ace 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass TE hitch Hamilton 6
Just a quick stop route that finds enough of a gap to convert the first down, and then Hamilton bulls his way into the endzone. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 16-7, 3 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR DForm Type Play Player Yards
M34 1 10 Ace 1 2 2 4-3 under Pass Sack Rudock -1
All day after the playfake; Rudock cannot find anyone and waits way too long to get rid of the ball. He gets back to the LOS. Illinois gives up a first down after an illegal hands to the face call. (TA, N/A, protection 2/3
O44 3 3 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Skinny post Smith 21
A bullet between two dudes that hits Smith in the number. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O6 2 G Ace twins twin TE 1 2 2 4-3 under Pass Waggle scramble Rudock 6
Tim Beckman has never heard of a bootleg in his life. Tim Beckman is a football coach, technically. (SCR, N/A, N/A)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 23-7, 13 min 4th Q. Beathard gets the rest of the fourth quarter.

Why?

I had it half done a couple months ago and forgot about it. Also, this is a look at what Rudock looks like when he's not getting thunked in the face every forty seconds and his receivers can get open.

Illinois is bad.

Yes. This was not a difficult outing; Illinois had the worst pass defense in the league last year, allowing 7.6 YPA. FWIW, Rudock went 14/21 for 210 yards and it really could have been more.

Could have been more, you say?

This game provided a contrast between Iowa's receivers and Mike Dudek, a little freshman playing for Illinois. Let us consider this pass.

Nice throw, too bad it got knocked away, good coverage? Not so fast, my friend!

Martin-Manley has that ball hit his stomach. This is a gilt-edged invitation for the DB to rake the ball out. On replay you can see him fade away from his route:

That is bad. That is the opposite of "high-pointing" the ball, something Dudek would do spectacularly on the next drive. Watch him drive into the defensive back and extend away from him at the crucial moment:

Desmond King had excellent position and no opportunity to make a play on the ball because Dudek correctly judged its flight and put himself in a position where only he had a play on it. As MSU's proven amply over the last few years, in college football rubbin', son, is racin'. Iowa receivers do not do this.

A few throws later a Duzey wheel route ended up complete but not until after an Illinois DB had a swipe that momentarily knocked the ball free:

That ball is a bit off, short and to the inside, but well within the range of 30 yard balls that are deemed catchable, because it is plenty accurate enough to give the guy time to adjust and make a play. Duzey did the latter; not so much the former.

I know that Michigan's wide receivers are a big question mark this year and that I'm probably going to be making similar criticisms of them unless Drake Harris made a deal with the devil. I think Rudock would be looked at much differently if he had been playing with Devin Funchess last year.

At the end of the first half there was an attempt to slow-and-extend by Tevaun Smith, but Smith ended up over-correcting and could only get one hand on the ball when it arrived:

Stonum-esque.

Martin-Manley did have a nice catch on a deep ball Rudock overthrew a tiny bit, offsetting some of the complaints above; you still have to wonder why on earth Iowa got rid of Erik Campbell.

Maybe he liked to chart too much.

Maybe.

Jake Rudock

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR DSR
Maryland 2 38++(2) 4(1) 2 2* 6 3 7 1 75%
Northwestern 5+ 7+(1) 3(1) 3 - 1 1 - 1 71%
Illinois 3 13(2)+ - 2 1 2 - - 3 77%
Wisconsin 5+ 16(3)++ 7 1 1 3 1 2 2 80%
Nebraska 3 20(1) 2 5 4** 2* 1 5 1 66%

Rudock was highly accurate. One of his misses was a bomb that was too long, the other a fade route to the endzone from the ten that was well short. The bad read was an attempted third and short conversion on which everyone ran four-yard hitches and he picked the wrong one. Other than that he was on point.

One other thing to note is that Rudock was highly aggressive in this game, repeatedly bombing downfield and finding his guys past the first down markers. There was only one drag. That's because guys were actually open in this game.

Any half-baked criticisms you would like to contest?

There are places on the Michigan internet where any mention of Jake Rudock will draw accusations that he has a "pop-gun arm." That is nonsense. Ten yard out:

Fifteen yard out:

Fifteen yard dig:

20-yard skinny post:

He isn't Morris, but he's got plenty of oomph to get the job done.

What does it mean for 2015?

We're totally going to beat Indiana. Also yes Jake Rudock is going to start.

Comments

funkywolve

August 25th, 2015 at 10:38 PM ^

It's great that Brian has done these to give us an idea of how Rudock performed for Iowa.  At the same time though one of the things I've enjoyed most about this blog is the UFR's of Michigan games.  We probably only got UFR's on about half the games last year.  I realize in most cases, the offensive UFR would be like sticking needles in your eyes, but I would have been real curious to see how the oline graded out the second half of the year.

bronxblue

August 25th, 2015 at 3:19 PM ^

My eye started the twitch even reading this small but about Illinois football.

Ruddock looks good; let's hope the skill players can help him out.

The Man Down T…

August 25th, 2015 at 3:22 PM ^

" I think Rudock would be looked at much differently if he had been playing with Devin Funchess last year."

A lot does depend on having good receivers. The best arms in the league are useless if there aren't good receivers to catch the passes.  Also, a good receiver can cover up a lot of passing warts.  Look at all those times Denard underthrew a receiver and the receiver recovered and caught it.  They go in the stats as complete passes the same as a perfect pass does.  Rudock will have a good receiver corps and good coaching.  If he can hit the receivers consistently in a 30 yard range then he'll do just fine for us.  Provided he wins the job.

markusr2007

August 25th, 2015 at 3:27 PM ^

In Harbaugh's first year at Stanford in 2007, TC Ostrander was the starter, but had a seizure and was sidelined early. A scrawny, faster Tavita Pritchard came in and played remarkably well at times, but was otherwise an INT device during that first year 4-8 campaign.

Rudock is a smart player, can make the throws and has wheels when needed.  if Michigan can just stop killing drives and become less of a turnover machine (UM was ranked 121st in turnover margin 2014), then the Wolverines are going to win more of the games that they should.

 

 

funkywolve

August 25th, 2015 at 10:33 PM ^

Reduced turnovers would be nice but turnover margin is how both the offensive and defensive units perform.  One of the reasons the turnover margin was so bad was because the defense was awful at creating turnovers.  They ranked 123rd (out of 125 teams) in turnovers created.  The offense ranked 98th in turnovers lost.  

CompleteLunacy

August 26th, 2015 at 10:29 AM ^

98th ain't exactly good either.



But I think turnovers are the most important thing M can improve this year. And if that's true...then all signs must point to Rudock starting, because so far there's been no indication that Morris has become less turnover-prone.

Michigan Arrogance

August 25th, 2015 at 3:34 PM ^

 Illinois does a series of horrible things culminating in an intentional grounding safety. I hope you appreciate that I am exposing myself to lethal levels of Illinois here.

 

I would think watching an inept football team and realizing that it's not Michigan would be enjoyable

MGoStrength

August 25th, 2015 at 4:05 PM ^

Although I've provided some reasons why we shouldn't be counting Morris out so quickly in previous threads, the practice buzz lately seems to indicate that Morris is still too inconsistent and Ruddock is our guy this year.  My question is do QBs who have obvious arm talent, but lack consistency typically figure it out?  Or is being accurate and being able to read defenses just something you have or don't have?  Despite being a phenomenal runner and having a decent arm Denard never seemed to improve at this.  Neither did Gardner.  Caveots about the offensive line, coordinators, etc. apply.  But, Coonr Cook improved, didn't he?  There was a time when I didn't think he was anything special.  Although he still misses guys, he also throws some great balls.  Can Morris improve his accuracy and his ability to read defenses and check down or is he a lost cause?  Or am I oversimplifying it?

CoverZero

August 25th, 2015 at 4:14 PM ^

No.  A certain amount of QB skills, such as accuracy, poise in the pocket, ability to read defenses and "slow down the game" mentally, are innate and can not be taught. 

With some QBs, those skills can be improved on, however in Shane's case, he never really has shown any of those vital QB skills during actual game performances in HS or college. 

Someone made an analogy that I like:  A lot of baseball pitchers can throw 95+ MPH.  Very few of them end up making the major leagues or staying very long if they get there. 

Its all about the computer upstairs.

CoverZero

August 25th, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^

Good analysis Brian.  You are right, the kid can make 90% of the throws.  His arm is plenty strong enough, and certainly accurate enough.

The propagated myth in the mainstream media is that Rudock has a "weak arm". 

No doubt that the writers at Mlive, Freep and Det. News are monitoring your every blog post daily, so that they can nick good material.

Hopefully they see these breakdowns and get the message that his arm is just fine so we dont have to read the same regurgitated "Morris is more of a playmaker" BS all season long.

MGlobules

August 25th, 2015 at 4:35 PM ^

that the excitement here and for Harbaugh just might really not match up on the field. But with the addition of Rudock I really think we have got enough of the necessary pieces to do decently this year.

ThoseWhoStayUofM

August 25th, 2015 at 5:16 PM ^

I question the underlying premise that Rudock is actually a really good quarterback who had a bad team of receivers and a bad o-line. At Michigan, he will have better receivers and a better o-line.

uh... Michigan has no good receivers and the o-line was terrible last year. Michigan's offense was worse than Iowa's last year. I'm just saying...

BradP

August 25th, 2015 at 6:32 PM ^

Both of the passes to Manley and Duzey look drastically underthrown because there was no one behind them and passes thrown a couple steps farther could have resulted in touchdowns.

I think they failed to adjust because both were expecting longer passes and couldn't come back to them.  KMM is Iowa's all-time leader in receptions and Duzey is projected to be one of the first tight ends drafted last year.  They are both really good players.

In the Dudeck example, he adjusted because appeared pretty clear they were targeting the pylon and the ball was placed exactly where it should have been.

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