chance of bowl: 13.6%
Upon Further Review: Offense vs Wisconsin
Poll coming early PM.
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|M20||1||10||I-Form 3-wide||Run||1||Brown||Zone left|
|Wisconsin has a corner rolled up over the backside, obviously showing zone, and goes with a shifted defensive front that lines an NT up over the C and has a DT over Boren. Kraus and Boren double the DT but get no push; Boren(-1) eventually falls. Meanwhile, the NT is the responsibility of Mitchell and slants behind Kraus as the play snaps. Mitchell has no chance to block him and does his best to follow him down the line. As Brown cuts up behind Long's block of the DE, the NT closes to tackle; a host of unblocked second-level Badgers follow. This play was doomed from the start.|
|M21||2||9||Ace 3-wide||Run||14||Brown||Zone right|
|Butler on the left side of the line; same shift by Wisconsin and Michigan runs away from it. Kraus gets squared up on the NT as Mitchell heads out to the second level; Boren(+1) blows the DT way off the line w/ help from Long(+1) and Butler(+1) manages to get in front of and drive the DE back. Brown pops through a hole and into the secondary. (Replay)|
|M35||1||10||Ace 3-wide||Pass||9||Mathews||Long handoff|
|Mathews working on the freshman corner for good yardage. (CA, 3)|
|M442||2||1||I-Form Big||Run||6||Brown||Zone left|
|NT Newkirk slants left at the snap, running himself out of the play and into the block of Butler. Wisconsin compensates by blitzing linebackers right up them middle. Mitchell(+1) chops one; Moundros(+1) does the other; Brown cuts up smartly into the vacant area.|
|O49||1||10||Ace 3-wide||Run||-1||Brown||Zone left|
|Hayden straight-up crushes a scoop block by Boren(-1) and Kraus(-1), ending up right in Brown's path. With nowhere to go he attempts to cut back; he's not Mike Hart.|
|Uh... okay. One WR on second and long. Debord will do this several more times and throw out of it, which is, IMO, completely insane. At this point Wisconsin has one all-star corner and then freshmen and losers. Why allow Ikegwuonu to cover the only receiver on the field? Why not force the nickelback on the field? I dunno. Anyway, Ikegwuonu gives tons of cushion and Michigan takes the simple out. Henne loops the ball awkwardly and makes this a tougher catch than it should be. (CA-, 2, protection 1/1)|
|Henne turfs one. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 8 min 1st Q. Henne does look wonky to start.|
|MLB bites on the play action and the WLB in zone coverage freaks out and starts heading to the sideline in an attempt to cover a WR after biting a little bit himself. Butler comes open and Henne hits him for a first down. Pass is a little low but reeled in. (CA, 2)|
|Inverted TEs, one of whom is "TE" Vince Helmuth. We often run draws from this formation, leaking the FB inside, and that's what we do here. Wisconsin is prepared for this, shooting two linebackers into the backside gap. Helmuth takes out one of them, but his counterpart forces Brown into the line; Brown bangs into an OL and goes down amongst a host of red shirts, driving for a few yards he did well to get.|
|The horribly thrown interception. (IN, 0, protection 2/2). Had Mathews for a first down otherwise. Goodbye, Henne.|
|Drive Notes: Interception, 6 min 1st Q. Henne out, Mallett in.|
|M32||1||10||Ace 3-wide||Pass||9||Arrington||Long handoff|
|Wisconsin brings up an extra guy, expecting run, and... hey! They took advantage of a soft corner. It's the freshman again. Throw was well in front of Arrington, presaging further wildness. (CA-, 3)|
|Not a stretch, close to what I'd call an Iso in any other offense. Left side of the line gets good push, but no creases appear. Hodge sticks Brown just short of the first down.|
|Not sneaking it on third and an inch seems needlessly reckless, but it works. Mitchell(+1) makes a good reach block, knocking back the DT and creating a bit of space for Minor. Good thing, too, as the other gaps were filled by hard-slanting badgers.|
|Arrington on a comeback route; Mallett waits and waits, finally throwing it wide as he nears the sidelines. It looks like Manningham is wide open here. (IN, 0)|
|I dunno, like WTF man. The weakside DE is totally ignored as long shoots out to the second level immediately; Minor gets a handoff on delay action and the unblocked DE makes a TFL. I'm at a loss to explain this play. Maybe it could work if the DE freaks out and goes after Mallett, but in this offense backside DEs are left unblocked all the time as the tackle shoots out to the second level, so as soon as the play snaps the DE is thinking run. Butler was off the line; maybe he was supposed to pull around? I don't understand this play at all. Video included in case someone wants to theorize as to what's going on here.|
|Good protection, as UW only rushes three. Mallett can't find anyone, eventually rolling out and taking a sack. (TA, 0, protection 2/2) On replay, good coverage with plenty of bumping from UW. No one open; can't blame Mallett there.|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 1 min 1st Q.|
|M20||1||10||I-Form 3-wide||Pass||17||Arrington||PA Flag|
|Excellent protection; draw fake t
o Minor. Mallett scans, pumping once before finding Arrington, who's beaten the freshman Henry, on a flag route. Mallett throws; the pass is a bit low but catchable, Arrington digs it out. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
|M37||1||10||Ace 3-wide||Run||-2||Minor||Zone left|
|Kraus(-1) blows right past the backside DT, leaving him for Mitchell on a reach block; Mitchell does not make this block. Minor is forced to cut back into an unblocked linebacker. This play is explored in more detail below.|
|M35||2||12||I-Form||Pass||Inc||Arrington||Post and go|
|Arrington torches this Henry kid again, getting yards past him; Mallett overthrows it. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)|
|Hayden splits a double from Boren(-1) and Kraus(-1), coming straight up the middle and sacking before Mallett's routes can develop. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 0-10, 11 min 2nd Q. FTR: Debord calling a diverse game here. Unless you think any play featuring an Alex Mitchell reach block is a bad playcall, there's not much to criticize.|
|M20||1||10||I-Form Big||Pass||Inc||Arrington||PA Out|
|This is where I don't understand this formation. Okay, you've run play action and gotten Mallett lots of time. But the only actual receiver in the route is covered by Ikegwuonu. And I mean this literally: there is one receiver in the route. Michigan's run this a couple times before, but it's an all-or-nothing strategy that banks on a really convincing run fake. Ikegwuonu is in man and doesn't buy it; Mallett throws it anyway and it's nearly picked off. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)|
|M20||2||10||I-Form Twins||Run||3||Brown||Zone left|
|Eight in the box for UW and Hayden gets a jump off the ball directly into the path of the play. Mitchell is just trailing the backside DT hopelessly when Moundros(+1) slams into him (the DT), driivng him back and pancacking him. Mitchell gets in on the act, generally shoving people and turning this into a small gain as Brown cuts back behind Kraus and Boren trying to handle Hayden.|
|Mallett's drop is ridiculously deep â€“ ten yards â€“ and he fails to step up into a nice pocket the OL has provided, so eventually a guy comes around Schilling but it's not his fault. Mallett thinks about rolling out, then flicks a perfect pass off his back foot to a guy 25 yards from him. Uh. Okay. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)|
|Seven guys in the box and the linebackers are shifted to the TE's side of the line; Mallett checks off and hits Arrington on a post after looking off a safety. Could be a little more accurate â€“ Arrington pulled of his feet â€“ but Mallett looks like a real quarterback on these back-to-back throws. (CA+, 2, protection 2/2)|
|O42||1||10||I-Form Twins||Run||5||Brown||Zone right|
|Good job by Mitchell to get a solid shove on the DT. Moundros(+1) pounds a linebacker back off the LOS as he shoots into the hole; Brown follows him for a pounding five-yard gain.|
|O37||2||5||I-Form Twins||Run||-1||Minor||Zone left|
|Schilling asked to reach-block Newkirk, but Newkirk is slanting so hard to the playside he's immediately behind him and has no chance to block anything; Newkirk flows down the line and tackles at the POA. Without his presence this is a six-to-eight yard gain, IMO.|
|Mallett can't find anyone open, but smartly scrambles around pressure to buy time. He motions Mathews to head downfield and lofts up a bomb to him. He's well covered â€“ amazingly well covered, #3 here did a stellar job â€“ but Mathews comes over his back to make a simultaneous catch and pick up the first down. Is Mathews blanketed? Yes. Is this a bad decision? Not really. He didn't have any other options and it's third down. Even if intercepted this is a nice punt. (CA+, 1, protection 2/2)|
|Manningham beats Ikegwuonu, who falls, and jets into the endzone. (CA, 3)|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown,7-17, 4 min 2nd Q. An 80 yard touchdown drive gives false hope. At this point Mallett looks acceptable; it's almost all downhill from here.|
|M18||1||10||I-Form Twins||Pass||Inc||Manningham||PA Fly|
|Manningham has a step here; Mallett throws it well short and to the inside. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)|
|M18||2||10||I-Form Twins||Run||6||Brown||Inside zone|
|Wisconsin only has about six guys in the box here, though they're clearly in zone and two DBs are looking in at the snap, prepared to jump a run. Brown ends up cutting back as the frontside is jammed up. Long(+1) and Kraus(+1) have creased a large area to the play's rear and Butler(+1) has cut of the backside DE. A safety comes up and with no one on the second level it's just him and Brown; theh ole is big enough for Brown to schoot past him and fall forward for a nice gain.|
|UW sends the house â€“ seven guys â€“ getting a corner in unblocked. Mallett throws off his back foot, winging a pass into the sidelines. Manningham was open for the first down. (IN, 0, protection 0/1, team)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 7-20, 14 min 3rd Q. A Zoltan MIND BULLET on an otherwise crappy day for him gets Michigan the ball back in UW territory.|
|Eight in the box, and we run straight ahead with no zone blocks. Boren(+1) does a good job on Hayden; Kraus gets out on the MLB. Moundros has trouble with another LB attacking hard; Brown's forced to cut up inside instead of head out into open space. The backside DE, unblocked comes into tackle near the LOS. Brown falls forward.|
|Ikegwuonu has this blanketed; this ball should not be thrown. Manningham ends up playing DB. (BR, 1, protection 2/2)|
|O35||7||Shotgun 3-wide||Pen||-5||--||Delay of game|
|Wisconsin rushes three; Hayden is in the path of the throw, leaps, and knocks it down. (BA, 0, protection 1/2, team)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 7-20, 13 min 3rd Q.|
|Manningham open on the out for about nine, as UW is stacking the box. Thrown to Tacopants. Woo, Tacopants! (IN, 0, protection 2/2).|
|UW still has eight in the box, and this is going nowhere. Hayden breaks free from Boren's(-1) block, taking a swipe at Minor in the backfield but missing. The WLB gets sucked inside too far and Minor manages to get the corner after getting knocked back and jetting out to the sideline. All the RB here.|
|M29||3||1||I-Form Big||Pass||4||Manningham||Long handoff|
|Well, if they're going to play off, sure. Ikegwuonu pissed afterwards. (CA, 3)|
|Way, way, overthrown. Not even Tacopants can get to that one. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)|
|M33||2||10||I-Form Twins||Pass||0||Arrington||Long handoff|
|Maybe one too many times to the well.... maybe it's late? Don't know. Henry was pretty far off at the snap. (CA, 3)|
|UW sends the house again; good pickup; Mallett throws it way wide and high to Manningham on an out. Better coverage this time, though. (IN, 0, protection 3/3)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 7-23, 3 min 3rd Q.|
|Hard to tell what happens on this play, as ABC is devoting significant screen space to people doing "Jump Around", but it looks like the usual: tough reach block on the backside, this one Schilling's, does not work and when there's a slight disruption on the frontside fails reach block results in a minimal gain.|
|Excellent pocket, Manningham sort of open but not really, Mallett throws it in the dirt. A commenter wondered if Tacopants had a 2'6" sister named "Tacoskirt." Yes, yes he does. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)|
|Mallett picks Manningham out just as he passes the first level in the zone but before the safety can come up and lays it directly in his hands. Carter takes a bad angle, falls, and Manningham is off to the races. Divers alarums. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-23, 13 min 4th Q. Yeah... well. Okay.|
|So a stunt gets Newkirk in and Mallett knows he's going to get crushed. He chucks it up for grabs; it's picked off. Jesus Christ. (BR, 0, protection 0/2, team)|
|Drive Notes: Interception, 14-23, 12 min 4th Q. At least that was quick.|
|M14||1||10||Shotgun 3-wide||Pass||5 + 15||--||Scramble|
|Pocket holds up well, but Mallett can't find anyone. He scrambles out of the pocket, scanning downfield for potential receivers, then decides to take off and get what he can, which is five yards and a late hit penalty. Legit, as there's no reason for Levy to bang helmets with Mallett after he's down. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)|
|Manningham is open for a seven or eight yard gain, but Mallett throws it way too far downfield. It's almost intercepted; Manningham, going for the ball, bangs into the DB and the ball falls to the turf. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)|
|M34||2||10||Ace 3-wide||Pass||Inc||Mathews||PA Wheel|
|Mathews actually lined up as a TE, albeit off the LOS; he runs a wheel route that gets wide open against Levy and could be a 15-20 yard gain. Mallett loops it but throws it short, Mathews can't dig it out. (IN, 1, protection 2/2)|
|A blitz/stunt gets a UW guy loose right up the middle. Mallett is sack-- OH GOD WHAT ARE YOU-- RUN, CARSON, RUN! (Uh... N/A, N/A, 0/2, team)|
|Manningham beats Ikegwuonu this time and Mallett finds him between levels in the zone; Manningham drops it. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)|
|50||2||10||Shotgun 3-wide||Pass||Inc +10||Arrington||Improvisation|
|Levy blitzes around the edge; Mallett steps up and starts rolling out. He doesn't really have to roll out, as there's a nice pocket, but maybe it's good to get away from Levy. He finds Arrington open but throws it in the turf. (IN, 0, protection 2/2) Manningham was mugged by Ikegwuonu; holding call.|
|Should be a simple pitch and catch, but Mallett throws it a bit low. Not so low that it's an impossible catch; Arrington overreacts to it a bit and manages to get under it, eventually dropping the ball. (CA-, 2, protection 1/1)|
|UW only rushes three, which simplifies things; huge holes everywhere in the line. Long(+2) helps out by completely obliterating his guy, kicking him all the way to the other side of the field and making it really obvious where Minor soult go. Butler kinda whiffs on his block but the player in question is forced to head outside; Minor cuts up smartly and into the secondary.|
|Beautiful pocket; Mallett loads up and goes for the endzone. Ikegwuonu is in better postion than Manningham and makes su
re the pass is incomplete. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
|Wisconsin sends the house; seven players cross the line â€“ I've almost never seen a game with this many crazy-ass blitzes on both sides â€“ and one gets through up the middle after a stunt. Mallett finds Arrington on a corner route but throws it too long. I... well. It's (IN, 0, protection 1/3, team), but that's admittedly harsh.|
|UW obviously just rushing three with eight guys nowhere near the LOS. Mallett drops back in a nice pocket and throws to Arrington, who separates from the DB and lays out to catch a perfect throw. (DO, 1, protection 2/2)|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-23, 7 min 4th Q. Is this not the least impressive 86 yard touchdown drive you've ever seen?|
|Nearly picked off by Casillas as I think Butler was supposed to get a bit of a pick on his zone drop and did not. Mallett's throw is a little behind Arrington, so it's a completion instead of a pick six. BR? CA? Dunno. Benefit of the doubt. (CA, 2, protection 1/1)|
|Boren(-1) driven back by Hayden; no holes. UW had a seventh guy in the box here... Mallett probably should have checked off.|
|Butler(-2) gets beaten by the DE and flagged for holding; Mallett moves up into the pocket, then starts scrambling around like a madman, eventually taking an enormous loss and attempting to hurl the ball to Minor underhand as he gets sacked. (BR, 0, protection 0/2)|
|Thrown directly to Ikegwuonu. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)|
|Drive Notes: Interception, 21-23, 4 min 4th Q. Oy.|
|The Mallett dumpoff this ref decides is a sack because he doesn't like the cut of our young man's jib. Mallett was in trouble because Schilling(-2) was humilliatingly thrown to the ground by a linebacker and woop guys on top of him. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)|
|Dropped. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)|
|Mallett steps up, finding Arrington just in front of a safety, but the safety lunges to break it up. (CA, 1, protection 2/2)|
|Actually open and a quasi-decent throw, just too long. Mathews lays out but can't make a near impossible catch. (CA-, 1, protection 2/2)|
|Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 21-30, 2 min 4th Q. Charting ceases.|
This guy was Mr. Super Fun Awesome Guy out of high school?
Yes. Evidently. We should really check the--
We busted out a similar disclaimer during Henne's 2005 nadir: four of Mallett's CAs were long handoffs. When he went, or rather attempted to go, downfield the results were awful: 12 good (CA + DO) results and 19 bad ones (IN + BR + TA), a 38% success rate.
So, was this the worst game by a QB in UFR history?
Yes. The previous gold standard was the 2005 Wisconsin game in which Henne had a whopping 11 INs and the legend of Tacopants really began to take off. But even in that game Henne's ratio was 10:14, a 41% success rate. Before 2005 things get murky and are not backed up by nice numbers, but it was probably the worst performance by a Michigan quarterback since Navarre gave away the 2001 OSU game, and even that was more a spate of hideously bad intercept
ions than Mallett's relentless series of bad reads and inaccuracy.
This is where the mitigation goes: yes, he's a true freshman and yes he has an enormously high ceiling. I still love his pocket awareness, his feel for moving away from pressure (most of the time), and his rocket arm. I am not suggesting that Mallett is destined for failure. It's just that at the moment he sucks real bad. He's going to have to work his ass off to hold off Steven Threet, and I say that having never seen Threet do anything at all.
Maybe Mallet was just under seige?
To some extent, okay. Yes. Protection numbers:
Protection: 55/69. Boren -1, Kraus -1, Butler -2, Schilling -2, Team -8.
I know a huge number for "team" is unsatisfying, but I could not assign blame for many of the stunt screwups, partially because many of the shots were wide-angle and picking out exactly what happened was difficult.
Anyway, the blocking grades out at 80%, not great, but it wasn't last week versus MSU. Mallet had a decent amount of time and when he didn't it was usually because Wisconsin was bringing a huge rush.
Arrington gets in on the parade of uncatchable balls this week; the rest of it is about as you might expect, with a couple of unusual drops from the main guys but in limited opportunities to prove they can catch routine balls.
Hey, how about that Debord!
I will give him this: his playcalling was relatively diverse and did not put Mallett in a position to fail; this was all on him. It was kinda shocking, actually, but in retrospect Michigan got down 10-0 right away and played the entire game from behind, so out came the scoring offense even with the freshman quarterback going FAIL FAIL FAIL. If you ever needed proof that Michigan thinks a diversified offense with a fairly even run/pass split on first down is the best way to score and deliberately chooses something else whenever they can, this game was it.
Uh... Mallett. Yes. I think so.
Oh, lord. I actually though Brown did a fine job taking what was given him on his limited rushing opportunities. Moundros got a couple nice blocks, and Long was a rock as per usual.
What does it mean for Ohio State?
Hopefully damn near nothing. If Mallett plays, we lose. If Hart does not play, we probably lose.
Other than that obvious conclusion, at this point we know the zone running game is highly susceptible to getting overplayed when we use it so much; maybe the precious counter trap or just plain zone counter will re-emerge to give Buckeye DL something to think about. Ohio State fans are very nervous about their starting DTs but our run game will allow their slight but relatively quick guys to penetrate without having to worry about taking on a drive block; unless Hart pulls some magic out expect another disappointing performance.
Schilling did okay, but after last week's severe troubles with the Sackmaster it's clear Schilling-Gholston is this year's biggest individual mismatch in The Game. I am not optimistic.