Upon Further Review 2014: Offense vs Notre Dame Comment Count

Brian

FORMATION NOTES: We're a… shotgun spread offense with personnel exactly like Rich Rodriguez's preferred 1 RB, 1 blocky/catchy, 3 WR?

M kerridge flanker

We were in this game. Take off… er… put everyone in identical uniforms and don't check to see which team has the 6'5" giant at WR and you would have no idea which team was which based on presnap alignments. Excluding short yardage and two snaps inside the Michigan 5, Michigan had 49 shotgun snaps, five from the pistol, 7 in ace and zero I-Form.

This wasn't quite as WR heavy as that would imply as you can see Kerridge split to flanker in the above shot, something that happened half a dozen times. But… yeah, it looked like a callback to 2010 minus non-scramble QB runs, of which there was one.

Michigan deployed Kerridge all over; here he's the H-back.

M kerridge h-back

And they deployed a few instances of what I call "Pistol FB," which indicates there's a dude next to Gardner and a TE.

M pistol FB

Michigan ran a version of this where the "FB" was Norfleet, once from the pistol and once from the gun. Norfleet also motioned to the backfield for a two-back look.

M pistol twins Fleet

Now if the next time Michigan uses my preferred offensive style if they could just score some points that would be cool.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Line was Cole/Magnuson/Miller/Glasgow/Braden the whole way. Gardner QB obviously; Green was the starting RB and vaguely the top guy, with Smith getting close to equal time and Hayes getting some third down snaps.

WR was a rotation between Funchess, Darboh, Chesson, and Norfleet with nobody else getting in IIRC. Hill and Williams saw almost all the TE snaps save a handful Butt got early; Kerridge also played H-back frequently.

[After THE JUMP: why don't you try running INTO the hole this time?]

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M24 1 10 Pistol twins fleet 2 1 2 4-3 over Run Triple option IZ Green 1
Norfleet motions in to the nominally FB spot in this pistol and Michigan runs a triple option look that's probably frippery on a no-read handoff. This looks like it can be successful, as the LBs are very much paying attention to the frippery and Chesson comes down to get a block on a safety. It's unclear whether Glasgow(-1) and Miller blow their block on Jones because of bad communication or if Glasgow just loses him but even so he stays connected and there's a big crease with Braden(+1) blowing out the force DE way wide. Green(-2) cuts away from that hole basically into Jones when if he bursts to the play design he does get into the second level and probably the secondary. They never come back to this and actually run the option bit, which is a shame because the pitch looks very open.
M25 2 9 Shotgun trips 2 0 3 Nickel even Pass Hitch Funchess 12
Kerridge a flanker to the trips. Simple five yard hitch that Funchess(+1) turns into a first down by breaking a tackle and running over a guy. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M37 1 10 Ace trips tight bunch 2 1 2 4-3 even Run End around Norfleet 13
Kerridge Butt and Norfleet are the bunch, with Kerridge and Norfleet coming across the formation for the end around. IZ fake holds the DE in, Norfleet scoots outside. Mason Cole makes some iffy initial contact with Smith; Kerridge(+2) shows up and locks on, driving him almost to the first down marker. Norfleet(+1) sets the block up well and runs through Smith's harried tackle for a nice gain. RPS +1.
50 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 over Pass Tunnel screen Funchess 2
Magnuson(-0.5) is late getting out and Day reads the screen excellently, so Funchess has nowhere to go. (CA, 3, screen)
O48 2 8 Shotgun 2 back 2 0 3 Nickel even Run Lead zone Green 7
Kerridge(+1) IDs and nails an edge blitzer, leaving just one LB behind the line. Cole(+1) kicks the end; Mags(+1) and Miller(+1) seal the NT and Mags gets an eh block on the second level; Green(+0.5) gets momentum and pounds out some YAC.
O41 3 1 Ace big 1 3 1 4-4 even Run Inside zone Green 0
Cole(+1) and Hill(+1) absolutely obliterate the playside end, so there is a bounce here once Smith blows past Magnuson(-1); Day ripped past Glasgow(-1), causing him to go down and preventing Braden from doing much with him; Glasgow cannot get to a LB as result; Miller(-0.5) is struggling. Green(-1) plows directly into the trash here, which gets nothing.
O41 4 1 Ace big 1 3 1 Goal line Pass PA FB flat Kerridge 4
Kerridge gets open for the first down and brings it in; always nervous when you're tossing it to a big blocky guy out there. (CA, 3, protection N/A)
O37 1 10 Ace trips tight bunch 2 1 2 4-3 even LB split Pass PA swing Norfleet 7
Jailbreak on the protection here as Kerridge (-1) misses a cut and Glasgow(-1) and Green(-1) combine to blow a stunt pickup. Gardner is like oh crap and flips it out to Norfleet on a high-arcer that is right in line for him to run after the catch, which he does. Hill(+1) obliterates a guy coming back to the play. DO? Uh, shortest one ever but I'm issuing it. (DO, 3, protection 0/3)
O30 2 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Bubble screen Norfleet -2
This would actually work just fine if Chesson(-2) would just block the nickel guy instead of his guy. You always block the nickel guy. WTF man. (CA, 3, screen)
O32 3 5 Shotgun trips 2 0 3 Okie two Pass Scramble Gardner 3
Kerridge motions from FB to flanker. Protection is fine, Gardner sees a gap in the line and thinks he can get it, and I thought he could too until Smith rockets in and puts him on the turf. (TA, N/A, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Missed FG(46), 0-0, 6 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even Run Counter Smith 5
ND playing to spill this to Smith with the end diving inside; a pulling Glasgow(+0.5) manages to hold him off enough for Magnuson(+1)'s motion to give Smith a crease. Hill(+0.5) helped Glasgow as well. Smith(+0.5) ran through a couple arm tackles after setting his block up.
M30 2 5 Shotgun trips TE 1 1 3 4-3 over slide Run Zone stretch Smith 9
M puts everybody to the field and ND slides that way, then they run to the boundary. Miller(+2) gets a reach block on a guy lined up a full gap away from him and with no end that is pretty much the play. Playside DB in fact cuts Cole to force the play back in (smart), and Magnuson(+0.5) gets out to the second level, as does Glasgow(+0.5). Smith almost runs through a safety tackle at the end but not quite.
M39 1 10 Shotgun empty TE 1 1 3 Nickel over Pass Hitch Funchess 27
Zone blitz, M has a hot route right where it comes from and Gardner gets it out quick to Funchess before the DE can drop to it. Funchess gets to turn upfield for an easy chunk play. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +2)
O34 1 10 Ace 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over Penalty False Start Miller -5
Or illegal snap whatever Miller(-1)
O39 1 15 Shotgun deep 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over Run Inside zone Green 6
Green motions to Gardner's left presnap and takes a handoff going vertically; Magnuson(+2) and Cole club the playside DT, with Mags doing the bulk of the work. Cole(-1) tries to pop off on a LB and gets popped back; that guy can peel off to tackle after a moderate gain. Miller(+1) got a good second level block on Smith, Glasgow(+0.5) locked out his guy.
O33 2 9 Shotgun deep 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 even Run Inside zone Green 2
Stunt gets this. Mags(-1) gets caught on it, unprepared for the inside step from the DE, and he rips through to tackle. Glasgow(-1) fell after initial contact on the backside; Braden(+1) got a good drive on his man.
O31 3 7 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Out Funchess Inc
ND slot guy in Funchess's shirt on this route and seemingly gets a PBU. Chesson right next to this route is actually open but with Hayes getting knocked back in his face this isn't the worst idea and does not rise to the level of a BR. Funchess needs to extend his arms here to box the CB out. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Blocked FG(48), 0-7, 13 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M9 1 10 Ace twin TE 2 1 2 4-3 under Pass Rollout comeback Chesson 16
Not a waggle but waggle ish; Kerridge first bumps the SAM so he can't flow up and then goes into a route, taking him away, and Gardner has the edge easy. He has Chesson open for a chunk and hits him; ball is a bit behind but not too bad. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
M25 1 10 Shotgun trips TE 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Comeback Chesson 14
Chesson the #2 WR and gets good separation from Farley in man coverage; Gardner has good protection and slings it out. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M39 1 10 Ace twin TE 2 1 2 Base 3-4 Pass Long handoff Chesson 0
No idea why Gardner thought this was a good idea, as the corner is five yards off. Funchess had his guy eight off and that was a much shorter throw, throw that one. Assume this is a sight check at the line he screwed up. (BR, 3, screen)
M39 2 10 Pistol 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Drag Funchess Inc
M takes a bunch of time getting out of the huddle; not getting set until 5 seconds left. ND is sending a safety, no time for him to tip it. He comes free as Smith(-1) fails to recognize it; everyone else gets blocked. Gardner has time to dump it, but Williams screwed up the route. He releases outside, and instead of getting in Jaylon Smith's way he gets in Funchess's way. With no pick Smith is right there and makes a play on the ball as it arrives. (CA, 0, protection 2/3 Smith -1, RPS -1, Williams route -)
M39 3 10 Shotgun 3-wide 2 0 3 Okie one Pass Sack N/A -2
Kerridge flanker, Funchess H-back. Not a fan of the Kerridge flanker stuff on passing downs. This is supposed to be a screen to Hayes; Hayes gets blown up in the backfield, and Gardner tries to improvise. (not charted, N/A, screen, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 9 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun 2 back 1 1 3 Nickel even Run Down G Norfleet 7
Norfleet motions to the backfield and takes the handoff with Green leading for him. This play catches ND off guard and they don't have much on the edge; Magnuson pulls; Williams(+1) fends off the DE and gets a yard of depth, Green gets the kick; Magnuson(+0.5) gets to the hole, and Norfleet(+0.5) motors for a nice gain. RPS +1.
M32 2 3 Shotgun twins twin TE 1 2 2 Base 3-4 Pass Yakety sax N/A -17
Pocket's okay. Miller's(-1) getting driven back; Gardner decides to throw and then decides against it, fumbling the ball as he tries to make it a pump fake and the NT drives back to hit the ball. Chaos, M recovers, but they just shot a drive to hell. (BR, N/A, protection 1/2). Gardner definitely could have taken off here. Ugh. This really isn't terrible from Miller. You don't want him to give so much ground but he's connected the whole time; we've seen a lot worse.
M15 3 20 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 3-3-5 nickel Run Draw Hayes 10
Give up and punt.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-14, 2 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel over Pass Hitch Funchess Inc
Good time; Gardner doesn't like anything, he should probably just dump it to Hayes; instead starts moving up in the pocket, allowing a DL to grab him. As he's going down he tries to get it out to Funchess, but it's short. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
M25 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel over Pass Post Norfleet Inc
Protection a little shaky but they make it work. M lets a guy through on a stunt but the rest of the pocket is excellent so Gardner can just step up and around. Magnuson(-1) is fortunate that he doesn't get called for a hold. Gardner can step up and fire to Norfleet, who's beaten the coverage and may have a touchdown... Gardner puts the throw well behind where it should be. It is still catchable, but Norfleet can't dig it out. (MA, 2, protection 1/2)
M25 3 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Okie two Run Draw Hayes 10
ND rushes three from a standup position and M runs at it, which just gets Michigan a first down. With 22 seconds left in the half this is kind of a give up and punt and ND is strategically induced to prevent something very long, so I'm not going to RPS this. Or really grade it, since no one really had to do anything.
M35 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-3-5 nickel Pass Fade Chesson Inc
Lot of time in the pocket and may as well heave one. It's a little short and too near the sideline; CB breaks it up and Chesson is landing OOB anyway. (MA, 0, protection 1/1)
M35 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Prevent Pass Seam Norfleet Inc
Norfleet actually comes open on this and if he's human-sized this is a good throw. He is Norfleet, though, so he leaps up and the thing just glances off his fingertips. LIFE. (CA, 1, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: EOH, 0-21.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Ace 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over Pass Waggle scramble Gardner 9
Butt engages the playside DE to prevent megadeath as Gardner turns around and then releases; Gardner(+1) has time to survey, likes nothing, stiffarms a 290 pound guy, and gets near first down yardage. (SCR, N/A, protection N/A)
M34 2 1 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over Run Inside zone Green 2
Cole(+0.5) catches and drives a slanting Day past his spot, allowing Green(+0.5) a cutback for the first down; I don't really expect Butt(-0.5) to do much with that 290 pound guy other than vaguely annoy him, but this could be a bigger gain with a better block there.
M36 1 10 Shotgun 2 back 2 0 3 Nickel over Pass Scramble Gardner 6
PA with what look like deep routes... Gardner sits, and sits, and finally Kerridge(-1) is overwhelmed and a guy threatens to sack; Gardner spins out and gets a nice gain. This is good coverage downfield, so I don't blame him for the hitching up. (SCR, N/A, protection 2/3 Kerridge -1)
M42 2 4 Pistol trips TE 1 1 3 Nickel over Run Zone stretch Green -3
Michigan to the line super late and about to get a delay penalty, and then it seems like they bust an assignment on the backside of the play. Glasgow(-1) cuts the backside DT and Braden(-1) tries to track down Smith on a play where he is a full gap away from him. That is never going to work; you need to work through the DT and scoop him and then get a hat on Smith. Instead he can run really fast and make a tackle by shooting the gap. RPS -1, clock.
M39 3 7 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Okie two Pass Seam Hill INT
Well, I remembered this wrong, as Michigan actually picks this up excellently, with Hayes finding the cornerback off the edge and M picking up everybody else. Nobody seems open; Gardner steps and fires to Hill, which a safety undercuts for a pick. (BRX, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-21, 12 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M2 1 10 Ace Big 1 3 1 4-3 under Run Inside zone Green 3
Double by Miller(+0.5) and Glasgow(+0.5) blows out the NT, providing a tiny crack that Green uses to get some breathing room. There is a lot of other chaos that basically amounts to push.
M5 2 7 I-Form Big 2 2 1 4-3 under Run Inside zone Green 2
Green(-3) misses an insanely gaping hole to the right that is at least a decent chunk and third and short and could be a lot if he breaks a safety tackle. Or not misses it, but literally cuts away from it. Inexplicable. Magnuson(+1) and Miller(+1) had caved in a DT; Cole(+0.5) escorted a DE upfield as that guy misses an assignment.
M7 3 5 Shotgun 4-wide tight 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Out Funchess 8
M blows a blitz pickup badly as Miller(-2) looks to a side of the field with only two guys on it once Smith drops to a zone; Day runs right up the middle untouched. Gardner somehow gets it out to a receiver for a completion. (DO, 3, protection 0/2)
M15 1 10 Pistol FB 1 2 2 4-4 under Run Counter Smith 0
Hill next to Gardner. Mags pulls around. M wants to sell IZ and spring this on ND; two problems. One is that ND has an extra guy in the box and he is a free hitter in the hole. The other is Smith beating up Hill(-1)when he tries to make a block. Mags(-0.5) also let Day come all the way around him and tackle after the Hill block caused Smith to slow up. RPS -1.
M15 2 10 Shotgun trips TE 1 1 3 Nickel even Run Zone read keeper Gardner 9
I say zone read but this is another down G on the frontside; end crashes and Gardner(+1) pulls. Out on the edge without anyone to tackle him until the safety comes down at about the sticks. Chesson(+0.5) and Darboh(+0.5) get stalk blocks to provide a lane. RPS +1.
M24 3 1 Ace 1 2 2 Confusion Run QB sneak Gardner 5
M tempos to the line and gets an easy conversion! RPS +1!
M29 1 10 Ace 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even Penalty False Start Magnuson -5
M tempos to the line and gets a false start! Magnuson and Cole -1!
M24 1 15 Shotgun trips TE 1 1 3 Nickel even Run Inside zone Smith 1
Smith(-3) should immediately cut back to the backside of the play a la Brandon Minor as the end is about three yards upfield—two too far—and the DT has been pushed down the line. These then look like crappy blocks but that's not the way zone works. The back HAS to read that the backside DT is inside of the guard and go straight NS.
M25 2 14 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Out Funchess 6
Two LBs sent on a zone blitz, Smith picks the first up, Gardner has to go hot. He throws it a bit behind Funchess but not too bad; may have some influence on lack of YAC. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M31 3 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 3-3-5 nickel Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
ND sends the house. Seven guys. Gardner likely has Norfleet over the middle for a 50/50 shot at a first down but doesn't have time as Day gets a free run as Mags(-1) and Cole(-1) fail to ID and block the blitz. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Punt,.0-21, 7 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M16 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even press Pass Hitch Funchess 10
Gardner looks to the field first and then aborts, hitting Funchess on a hitch that he gets a couple YAC on for a first down. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M26 1 10 Shotgun 2 back 2 0 3 Nickel over Run Inside zone Green 1
M unfortunate to eat a corner blitz that makes the CB a free hitter in the hole. Glasgow(+1) got push on Day; Mags(-1) lost his guy badly. Glasgow gives the hole and corner fills it. RPS -2. Braden(+1) got a good kick on his guy.
M27 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over Pass Fade Funchess 33
It works the first time they try it. I mean... ack. The protection on this isn't even any good as Williams(-1) gets beat up by a LB and Day rips through Glasgow(-1) and Gardner's just about getting hit, but fades are quick throws that go a long way so it works out. Funchess goes and gets it, with Riggs not even close to coping on a throw that isn't even as high as it could be. (DO, 2, protection 0/2)
O40 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over Run Inside zone Green 1
ND DT plays this much better than he did on the one I complained about Smith. DE does too, to the point where Gardner(-0.5) should pull, but I'm not even sure this is a real read. Mags(-1) gets no depth or movement and when Green cuts back there's no gap.
O39 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over Pass Scramble Gardner 3
Pocket terrific, timer goes off in Gardner's head, he starts moving around. He gets in acres of space, has Chesson wide wide open for like first and goal, doesn't throw, gets tackled for like three yards, fumbles. (BRX, N/A, protection 3/3, Gardner -3 run)
Drive Notes: Fumble, 0-28, 1 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M20 1 10 Shotgun trips 2 0 3 Nickel under Pass Hitch Darboh INT
Welp. I don't know how much I blame Gardner for this one since Darboh's route is asking to be jumped; keep moving back to the QB and you at least make this an incompletion. Also Riggs is in F-it highlight mode. Might be more conservative if this game was in doubt. I mean, it's man coverage. It's up to the WR to make it work. We've seen that all day. (BR, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-28, 14 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun empty TE 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Hitch Funchess 6
Standard pitch and catch. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M31 2 4 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass TE flat Hill 9
Outside WR runs the corner off, Hill(+1) sits down in that gap and then breaks the CB's tackle to get some YAC. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M40 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Scramble Gardner 2
Pocket is basically okay; Gardner starts stepping up and continues to; DT can grab him; they fall forward for short gain. (TA, N/A, protection 2/2)
M42 2 8 Shotgun trips TE 1 1 3 Okie two Pass Bubble screen Funchess 3
Again the outside WR ignores an overhang slot defender to go after his guy who is way soft. Reps reps reps reps;. This is Darboh(-2) who blows an otherwise open play. (CA, 3, screen)
M45 3 5 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Okie two Pass Improv Hayes Inc
Gardner wants Hill, and that's the right option but Hill has no separation and hasn't even turned around when Gardner wants to throw. He aborts; Cole(-1) gave way too much ground to his dude this time and he hits as Gardner tries to improv a throw to Hayes. Uh. (PR, N/A, protection 1/2, Cole -1, Hill route -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-31, 9 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over Run Inside zone Green 0
I mean... the OL here execute a great scoop on the NT, there's a gaping hole off the front side, they get to Smith on the second level, and Green(-3) cuts away from it. Miller(+1), Glasgow(+1). Mags looks bad but it's because this goes away from his angle.
M42 2 10 Pistol 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over Run Inside zone Green 2
This one is at least not his fault; ND RPSes Michigan by blitzing a LB off the edge. They have no one for a potential keep or rollout but this is a pistol thing not a read so eh. Day goes hard to the inside so Green has no choice but to go into the hole a linebacker coming off the edge is filling. Possible Cole should have come off on this guy but then that just leaves the DE free. Green(+1) does truck the guy for 4 YAC. RPS -2.
M44 3 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 3-3-5 nickel Pass Comeback Darboh 10
Corner blitz, Michigan kind of picks it up. Cole(-1) is getting driven back to Gardner, not fast enough to get there but fast enough to force a throw. It's to a blanketed Darboh, who's interfered with but still makes the catch. Funchess is back in, limps out. Because possibly aggravating an ankle injury for your best player in a 31-0 blowout makes sense. (CA, 1, protection 2/3)
O46 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over Pass Sack N/A -5
Bubble fake with a post type thing that has one DB in tight man coverage and a linebacker underneath, so that's not there. At this point just dump it off if you can, and you can; Gardner holds it and holds it until the protection breaks down and he's sacked. (TA, N/A, protection 2/2)
M49 2 15 Shotgun 2-back TE 1 1 3 Nickel even Run Triple option IZ Smith 15
Norfleet motions to backfield, triple option dive look again. Playside end takes a bump from Hill and forms up on the QB. Day gets over aggressive to the inside; Cole(+1) latches on and shoves him out of the hole. Smith shoots out to the edge in an attempt to contain the pitch. Magnuson(-1) released, saw Smith flash past him, and turned around to block a guy not relevant to the play who you can't block if he is, robbing him of a shot at blocking a safety. Smith(+0.5) makes the right NS cut and avoids one safety for near first down yadrage. RPS +2.
O36 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Comeback Darboh 13
Excellent protection on a zone blitz that one of the LBs times poorly; Gardner can step and fire to Darboh, who does have some separation this time. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O23 1 10 Shotgun trips TE 1 1 3 Nickel even Run Inside zone Smith 1
Magnuson(-1) blown back by Day, so no choice for Smith except to run into the back of Glasgow and Braden. Still think there's something there for Smith(-0.5) if he makes a hard vertical cut to the backside as soon as he gets it. This one is not clear cut, though.
O22 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Okie one Pass Fade Darboh Inc
No separation for Darboh; Gardner throws it OOB instead of giving his guy a shot. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, Darboh route -)
O22 3 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel 4-4. Run Inside zone Smith 0
No safeties. Michigan runs at an eight man box. RPS -1.
O22 4 9 SHotgun 4-wide 1 1 3 Okie zero Pass Sack N/A -8
Six guys sent, jailbreak sack. Magnuson(-1) beat, Hayes(-1) picks two guys and so picks neither, Braden(-1) airballs. (PR, N/A, protection 0/3)
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 0-31, 3 min 4th Q. Final drive has 40 seconds on the lock and is not charted. For hands purposes I'll note Norfleet got a 3 and Hill did not get a 2.

why did you do this

I don't quit until late in the season.

a true michigan man would quit in the middle of the third quarter

Ah, so.

okay go i guess, what happened etc

A lot of dumb little things. Things that aren't particularly hard that Michigan biffed, either because they turn into a pumpkin on the road or they are adjusting to a new offense or randomness is bad or they are just bad. The rest of the season will tell. The CUMONG MAN I exclaimed on that bubble screen that had my mentions all full up with "I told you the bubble screen wasn't an answer" was real, and it was not spectacular:

That's just… I mean, block that guy and that is a first down instead of an eventual punt.

I am not 100% clear on how the outside WR decides who to block on bubbles (seems like any man look should be the slot, and any zone look whoever has the flat) but the default should always be the slot guy since he's closest, and if you know a bubble is coming and you check the slot first and he is hauling ass for Norfleet, you block that guy. It is not hard. And Michigan did it twice in this game, leading to Mayock moaning expressively about the awesome play of the ND defense without so much as mentioning the fact that running at a guy unblocked isn't real hard.

Unlike the defense, the lack of precision here was widespread. We have an entire section on the running backs upcoming, we saw Chesson have an issue above, we'll get to Gardner's general hesitance, and here's a route screwup that is subtle but deadly:

Williams releases to the outside instead of straight upfield, so he ends up getting in Funchess's way instead of Jaylon Smith's. The result is a PBU. If Smith gets hung up at all that's a nice catch and run.

The line was surprisingly good, but they were also susceptible to mental issues. Here Glasgow and Braden elect to cut the backside DT and have Braden chase after Jaylon Smith. This blocking angle would not work on Richard Nixon, let alone Smith:

Overall the line was the least of Michigan's problems but they were not so good as to not blow up some stuff.

So this is an entire team taking turns playing like poop, mentally. Is this supposed to make me feel better? Or worse?

I don't know.

Surely you must have some opinion.

I guess I'd rather have stuff like the above happen instead of having your OL flung into the ballcarrier on every play? Mental issues can get fixed faster than you can make your OL meatbastards. I mean, Michigan was not physically overwhelmed like they were in… oh… every game last year except Northwestern. So I'd rather have this.

With one major exception, for which we should get out a

I'm just not up for it

chart.

So these numbers are really low in amplitude, because there were only 20 tailback runs—scrambles and sacks and the like are in the protection metric—and a chunk of them had grading aborted because of ludicrous running back behavior.

BTW, I moved Kerridge to the OL section since he was basically a TE. I am thinking about renaming these sections to "Blocking" and "Running" since that's a more useful distinction anyway.

Offensive Line
Player + - Total Notes
Cole 4 2 2 Didn't seem overwhelmed at all.
Magnuson 5.5 6 -0.5 Coping with Day is difficult.
Miller 4.5 0.5 4 Don't see him getting displaced again.
Glasgow 3 3 0 A bit shaky.
Braden 2 1 1 Kickouts seem good but I tend to take those for granted.
Kalis       DNP
Williams 1   1 Good block on Norfleet carry.
Kerridge 3   3 Even better block on Norfleet carry.
Hill 3.5 1 2.5 Decleater on… Norfleet carry.
Butt       DNC. Area for improvement: blocking for Norfleet.
TOTAL 26.5 13.5 66% This is right on our desired number. Low OL amplitude and high performance edge blocking mean it's a little optimistic, but I'm serious.
Backs
Player + - T Notes
Gardner 1 3.5 -2.5 Fumble.
Morris - - - DNP
Green 2 9 -7 Discussion below. Lots of cumong man.
Smith 1 3.5 -2.5 Also cumong man.
Hayes       #FREEJUSTICE
Johnson       DNP
Shallman - - - DNP
Kerridge N/A N/A N/A moved to TE for now
Houma       DNP
TOTAL 4 16 -12 Ample discussion below.
Receiver
Player + - T Notes
Funchess 1 - - YAC on broken tackle
Chesson 0.5 2 -1.5 Bubble biff
Darboh   2 -2 Also bubble biff
Norfleet 1.5 - 1.5 Best tailback available?
Canteen - - - DNP
Dever - - - DNP
Ways - - - DNP
TOTAL 10 1 9 Major reason RBs could run long way without dodging.
Metrics
Player + - T Notes
Protection 38 18 68% Mags –3, Miller –3, Cole –3, Kerridge –2, Glasgow –2, Green –1, Smith –1, Hayes –1, Braden –1, Williams -1
RPS 8 7 1 It makes sense.

Yup: the running back situation is deeply alarming right now.

Did you know this had happened when you wrote up that thing about Fred Jackson parade of failed tailbacks post-Hart?

I saw two bad cuts live. I did not think it was this bad. The tailbacks were a disaster. Notre Dame tailbacks dodged guys in the backfield to avoid tackles for loss; Michigan tailbacks dodged holes to avoid runs for gain.

On the opening snap Michigan does allow penetration, but it is gap-vacating penetration that leaves a jump cut wide open:

Green cuts away from it. Yeah, maybe that guy makes a tackle if you head to the wide open hole. But since he still made the tackle you chose poorly. I minused Glasgow for this but I minused Green harder. Go to the side of the block that your OL is standing, into the large hole, and then if bad things happen that's not on you.

What's more: Green makes this worse on himself by making the right decision initially and then changing his mind. If he fires N/S hard immediately, which should be his natural instinct because he's a truck, he pounds out a couple more yards and I'm not as persnickety.

That was actually one of the less clear-cut WHAT ARE YOU DOING moments since it does feature a guy in the backfield making things difficult. Green did the same thing on a near-identical play in the fourth quarter, minus penetration:

The linemen are trying to turn in that guy and seal him. That is what you are looking for, because if they do that the D is in trouble. That is the #1 thing you are looking for.

Later, Green would be presented with this:

M Green WTF

He ran away from the massive frontside gap in front of his face, into all the dudes on the backside. That was 1v1 against a safety for a massive gain. Instead, bupkis. It is even worse on film:

ARE YOU KIDDING ME

This is the thing that still makes me twitch more than anything else about this game.

De'Veon Smith was not immune, either. Here he turned a crystal clear opportunity to MINOR RAGE down the backside of Notre Dame's defense into nothing:

This was so obvious some unaffiliated dude at 247 compared it to a 40-yard touchdown Florida had in their game. This screenshot is just…

6_3084394[1]

…oy. The endzone view is boggling. Unaffiliated dude Pete Roussel:

You can bet Michigan running back coach Fred Jackson has already watched the film with his group and given his running an opportunity this week in practice to demonstrate the correct aiming point, track, and techniques involved in this play.

I might take that bet. I might bet that Fred Jackson planned on doing this but got distracted by his never-ending thirst and is now buried under an avalanche of still-full pop, juice, water, milk, Hi-C, Capri-Sun, soda, Ecto-Cooler, tea, and coffee bags/bottles/cans/sacks/boxes/mugs.

Smith at least learned better than Green did. On Michigan's penultimate drive they went back to the triple option look for a belly play and he cut hard N/S for 15.

Finally, Michigan got stuffed on a third and one on their first drive. Jaylon Smith makes this difficult, but Michigan caves a defensive end off the ball. Maybe Smith grabs you after he contacts the blocker, maybe not. The opportunity to make a play by bouncing is there, and once you get out there on short yardage you could be flying for a long while:

This is a situation where bouncing might get you tackled for a loss on third and one and chewed out so I don't want to say this is wrong, per se.

But there's a play to be made there.  A guy with Hart-like feel and feet feels that cave-in of the DE and conspires to use it. Make a guy miss, juke in-out with a plan in mind instead of Green's "oh poop what now" on the first play in this section, just do something. Make plays! Running back is a make plays position, and nobody is making any plays. The opportunities were there; collectively the 21 tailback carries probably left 100, maybe more, yards on the field.

I don't want to write anyone off right now, but can we please see some real carries for Hayes? It is possible to be an effective running back without being 225 pounds. Hell, the guy who looked the best with the ball in his hands was Norfleet and that's not even close.

And so… the offensive line was good?

Yes. Now, let's state that this ND line is a far cry from last year's. There's no Nix, there's no Tuitt, there's no Shembo. But this was a much better performance from the OL in specific than last year's 41-point outburst. Before you knock this counterintuitive assertion, here's the assessment from last year's UFR after a 41-point outburst:

Michigan's protection number of 60% is very, very bad and he was +5.5 on the ground largely because he is fast.

That out of the way, there are a few positives amongst mostly exploding face here. Lewan was his normal self even against Tuitt and Day. Toussaint had a good day turning nothing into something, and when Michigan went to isos in the second half Kerridge was a thumping presence.

The rest? Urgh.

Scoreboard.

So. The protection numbers are actually a bit worse than I expected, but they're near 70% and that's with an 0/3 on the last play I bothered with when ND sent seven guys at Gardner because lol we're up 31. The blocking numbers hit our 66% desired mark, and while a very good performance from the TEs and one Hill plus for breaking a tackle that shouldn't be in there are folded in make that percentage overstate the OL's performance, overall it was quite good.

This year when the tailbacks actually went in the damn gap things went forward.

That was a consistent(!) thing. Day gave Michigan a good deal of trouble; other than that they were decent, at least insofar as you can tell when you only get about 15 reasonable attempts to judge blocking.

Even Miller, most people's vote for Obvious Weak Point, held up for the most part. Yeah, he got bulled back into the quarterback some on the drive-killing Gardner fumble in the first half. As errors go that's not a huge one. If Gardner throws on time, nobody notices. If Gardner decides he doesn't have a WR and bursts through the gap next to Miller, nobody notices. It's only when Gardner decides to throw and then aborts that the ball ends up essentially on the hand of the DL.

Compare that to last year… exactly.

When not being not quite physically dominant enough to hold up to a DT, he was doing well. Here he channels Molk, stepping around a guy lined up shaded outside a guard to seal and pave the way for a first down:

That is hard to do. Yes, even if the guy is going upfield. Step-around-and-anchor is something that made Michigan's run game go for years, except when it ground to a halt when Molk was injured.

But they got more pressure than we did, by a million.

There were a couple of blitz biffs where Sheldon Day of all people was let loose untouched, but any semblance of pressure was 1) usually isolated enough to let Gardner deal with it by moving around or 2) created by indecision in the QB.

Remember how we talked about Golson being 1-2-3-gone in the defensive UFR? Compare that to Gardner on this second down:

That's 1-2-3-4-5-gone, and thus the safety blitz feels dangerously close to getting home. Late in the first half, Magnuson lost a guy, kind of got away with a hold, and let his guy in on Gardner. If this was last year this would have been the first in a series of baffling miscues that ended with Gardner buried under ten tons of rat meat. Instead Gardner just stepped up in the pocket and… sigh… missed an open Dennis Norfleet for a potential 75-yard touchdown.

Meanwhile this is like up to 7-not-gone before the walls cave in.

The protection breakdowns came in isolated drabs until very late when Notre Dame was sending cover-zero blitzes at Gardner in the waning minutes of a five-score game because lol we're up 31.

Speaking of Gardner.

Devin Gardner 2013

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR DSR
Central Michigan 2 10(1)+ 1 1 2* - - 1 3 82%
Notre Dame 7+ 16(1)++ 4(1) 2 3* - 1 4 4 82%
Akron 3 14(2) - 5 3** 2 1 3 1 59%
UConn 2 13(1) 1 5*+ - 1 - 5 5 76%
Minnesota 4+ 7(1) 4 1 - - - 1 2 92%
Penn State 7+ 12(2) - 5+ 2** 3 1 4 4 66%
Indiana 5 18(3) 1 1 3 3 - - 5 78%
Michigan State 1 15(2) 1 5 4* 6 - 4 1 50%
Nebraska - 17(1) 1 4(1) 2* 5 - 6 - 62%
Northwestern 5 21(6) 3 5 6***** 1 2(1) 6 4 65%
Iowa 3 12(5)+ 2(1) 5(1) - 2 2 4 3 68%

Devin Gardner

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR DSR
App State 1 11(4) - 2(1)   1 - 1 1 82%
Notre Dame 3 17(3) 2 1 6(1)** 3 - 2 2 68%

Shane Morris

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR DSR
Central Michigan - 4 - 1 1* 1 - - - N/A
App State 1 2 1   1*          

He was bad. I know the DSR says eh, okay; the DSR hasn't been good at turnovers. Gardner had four plus what was essentially a fifth when Michigan recovered his fumble for a 17-yard loss. Even if you don't count the last two because it was laugher time, three turnovers that are entirely your fault is game-crushingly bad.

He started off hitting a lot of throws, but even early his decision-making let Michigan down. After the bubble biff above Michigan had a third and five on which he took off early and got hacked down by Jaylon Smith; the first fumble was caused mostly by his indecision.

The first interception was atrocious. Live I thought a blitz was about to blow him up, but Michigan picked it up fine and Gardner lasered one directly into a safety's chest after staring Hill down the whole route:

The overhead view makes it very clear that Gardner looked at one guy the whole way and all but delivered a hand-written Invitation To An (inter)Reception to the safety.

Michigan would later throw it deep to Funchess like once ever and that worked and then they had a drive. Michigan would give Gardner stellar protection, and after he moved around the pocket Chesson came blitheringly wide open in front of his face; Gardner never saw him and eventually started running, getting crushed and fumbling.

The third interception was deep into DGAF territory and a terrible route by Darboh; still that guy sitting at ten yards is asking for trouble.

He was bad. He was accurate, for the most part, but his decisions and ability to read the Notre Dame defense were substandard. Caveat: from what little I could tell it felt like Michigan was not getting much separation. Switch the QBs and Gardner may have an awesome day. This was not one, though, nor even a decent one.

At least they used NORFLEET though.

Yeah, one of the pleasant surprises from the game was Norfleet's creative, diverse, and effective deployment. He was a decoy on a couple of those "option" runs, took an end-around, grabbed a couple screens, was an emergency option on a swing pass, and even had a couple of handoffs out of the backfield.

Norfleet has a cutback option there but elects to follow his blocks and go with the play design; he was patient and explosive at the right times when he got the ball in his hands.

Also in fringe guys who played well, Kerridge had an interesting day. Nussmeier isn't a huge fan of fullbacks, so Kerridge bounced from H-back to flanker(!) along with a smattering of actual FB snaps. This is likely because he's the best blocky/catchy guy at the blocking stuff. Norfleet's end around featured him clubbing Jaylon Smith about eight yards downfield:

He coolly chopped down some blitzers

I don't like splitting him to flanker on obvious passing downs, as Michigan did with some frequency. You get matchup positives when it's a standard down; on third and ten you should have a wideout out there.

(You'll also note that this play or close enough was one Ace thought might make an appearance as Michigan goes to an IZ-focused run game—end around or fly sweep to Norfleet with an arc block to make that DE think twice.)

And Hill showed some promise. He looked like a capable receiver and okay-but-developing blocker. He also decleated a guy.

These are all Norfleet related since they are edge blocks for Norfleet. Also Norfleet. Norfleet for tailback and president and AD and pope.

RPS POSITIVE? ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND?

Again, RPS is a trees measure so I only issue a minus if ND does something that I think makes it specifically hard for Michigan to get anything on play X. I am with you on the inexplicable lack of throwing it a long way to the guy who is a foot taller than the other guy. The metric doesn't really have room for "did not throw deep to Funchess on this play, RPS –1."

So what's it good for? It's good for seeing who won the rock paper scissors. I think Michigan came out slightly ahead. They didn't run into stacked boxes such that the extra guy was a free hitter in the hole (except once), they took the stuff on the edges that was there, or would have  been there if Michigan wasn't derping their blocking, they neither sprung the big surprise for a big gain (low RPS positive) nor ate blitz after blitz on which unblocked guys showed up to death the running back to death (low RPS negative).

The gameplan mostly made sense, the plays were there to be made, Michigan did not make them. Yes, God yes, throw it deep to Funchess a lot. Other than that this was good.

Wideouts?

[Passes are rated by how tough they are to catch. 0 == impossible. 1 == wow he caught that, 2 == moderate difficulty, 3 == routine. The 0/X in all passes marked zero is implied.]

I'm going to try a new thing this year where if a route jumps out at me as obviously good or bad I'll make a note of it. A good route gets his guy wide open, a bad one allows a defender to make a play on the ball or results in an incompletion because the guy stumbles or falls down or whatnot.

Player 0 1 2 3   0 1 2 3
Funchess 2   1/2 8/8   3   2/3 14/14
Chesson 1     3/3   1   1/1 4/4
Darboh 2 1/1   1/1   2 1/1   2/2
Norfleet   0/1 0/1 3/3     0/1 0/1 6/6
Canteen               1/1  
Butt                  
Hill 1   0/1 1/1   1 0/1 0/1 1/1
Williams                  
Heitzman                 1/1
Dever                  
                   
Green                  
Smith                  
Hayes 1         1      
Johnson                  
Kerridge       1/1         1/1
Houma                  

ROUTES: Hill –1, Williams –1, Darboh -2

I hope everyone who trashed Funchess's hands this offseason is paying… oh who am I kidding they're all drunk.

Heroes?

Jack Miller, Funchess, and to a lesser extent most of the rest of the OL.

Maybe not so heroic?

Tailbacks. Gardner.

What does it mean for Miami (Not That Miami) and the future?

Take a deep breath. Just as last year's ND game did not herald an explosive offense of fireworks and Gardner Heisman heroics, this year's game does not herald nonstop doom. There were a bunch of simple errors that could get corrected; Gardner played poorly; I don't think I've ever seen Michigan tailbacks play that badly. The parts are there, particularly on the OL, to be okay.

Funchess still good. Let's throw it at him deep some more.

The OL looks vastly improved. You can improve vastly and still not be real good but they hit the number against a real team. They didn't hit the number against, like, Akron last year. They are still going to be subpar; there will be struggles; the cohension of these guys already vastly outstrips last year's outfit.

And they won't change. This is your starting OL until injury or serious struggles. Hooray.

All available options should be considered for tailback. Green and Smith should be given the opportunity to atone, but #FREEJUSTICE and #CONSIDERGNOMEFLEEET. This was gross.

Gardner needs to take a breath and have things slow down. As I said at the beginning of the season, his decisions are never going to be good enough to be great; he can be much better than he was in this game.

It gets better. One dollar, I bet it.

Comments

Sam1863

September 11th, 2014 at 5:05 PM ^

After reading both Offensive and Defensive UFRs, I came away with this:

The D-line is damn solid; depth at cornerback doesn't mean much if the defensive scheme requires them to do something they can't do; the O-line still isn't good, but it's not the fiasco it was last year; the smallest running back you have might be the best one; and the best way to beat Devin Gardner is to turn up the pressure and let him beat himself.

And the biggest thing: It's only been two games. Things can get better. Of course, whether they will remains to be seen. But the tools are there, and the coaches have done this before, so the possibility exists. So take your head out of the oven, take a deep breath, and wait for Saturday.

alum96

September 11th, 2014 at 6:47 PM ^

"depth" and "talent" are words thrown around far too easily - not just here but I see it on other football boards, esp the Lions.

Having 4, 5, 6 bodies is not depth.  Having 4, 5, 6 bodies is not "talent". 

Having 4, 5, 6 viable options all of which possess a good amount of proven college talent - that is real depth.

I cringe everytime I hear how much "depth" we have at WR and RB.  We have Funchess at WR and a lot of unknown quantities.  We have just a lot of unknown quantities at RB.  None of this is depth.  It is a lot of HS talent. 

What Alabama has at RB almost every year is depth.  When you can rotate 3 guys in and there is no serious perceptable difference.  Georgia has a few RBs like that this year - yes there is a drop off from Gurley but the 2nd and 3rd guy (in the game I watched) would be our #1s in an instant.

I know you are speaking more to defense but right now we have a lot HS starz at a lot of positions and not so much college level "depth".  We need more of it at a lot of places.  I think other than DT and maybe LB we dont have a lot of true "depth".  That leads to a Pandora Box question of why it is but that's another subject.  Just think we need to hold our horses on all the "depth" we have until we actually return a lot of proven college players at any 1 position.

StephenRKass

September 11th, 2014 at 5:32 PM ^

The d-line is solid, yes.

Regarding Cornerback, the depth is deceiving. We need both Taylor and Peppers out there. If they are playing, along with Lewis, we can use the defensive scheme. (Also with QB's not as good as Gholson.) We have the above 3 guys who can manage the defensive scheme. If they are out, we can't use that scheme. If they are in, we play aggressive.

I think OL is ok, and improving, yes.

RB is the unanticipated disaster, and yes, Norfleet might be the best. This is terrible. Wish that Isaac's request would be granted, but won't hold out hope for that.

Sam1863

September 11th, 2014 at 6:40 PM ^

OK, I'll buy that. With the proper personnel on the field, the scheme works - or, at least, has a better chance of working. But with the players they had on the field, not so much.

Actually, this highlights the reason I always look forward to the UFR posts: I always end up learning something. For example, on the TD pass just before the half, I gave most of the credit for that to Gholson. To my amateur eyes, it looked like Countess had pretty good coverage, but was beaten by a great pass. It's tough, but what are you gonna do?

But Brian's analysis showed me what I hadn't seen: Countess' coverage wasn't even close to good, as he got no jam on the receiver at all. What I mistook for "pretty good coverage" was due to his closing on the receiver when he was already beaten and the ball was coming down. Gholson still threw a great pass, but he had a bigger window than I first thought.

So, good for the UFR - but unfortunately, it points out that the CB depth is deceiving, as you said.

bronxblue

September 11th, 2014 at 8:09 PM ^

We don't know how good any teams are this early in the year. ND it's currently undefeated and have given up 7 total points. To all we know, they might be better than we all think, especially with Golson.

MGoRob

September 11th, 2014 at 5:26 PM ^

Umm, Perhaps I'm seeing this incorrectly as the plays aren't in their full length, but Miller at Center consistently dives his head under to look back, then looks up, then immediately snaps it. I see no delay. Isn't this what MSU exploited a few years back in back to back games to jump the snap? Should we be worried?

DefenseWins

September 11th, 2014 at 5:29 PM ^

Both UFR's confirmed what I thought after the game: 31-0 makes no sense to me.  I didn't feel like we played a bad game.  In fact, I thought we played pretty well, mainly in the first half, yet we were still down 21-0.  It made no sense.  Either ND played at another level (which they probably did, the rest of the season will figure that out), or we made too many little mistakes.  But I didn't think it should add up to 31-0.

ChicagoGangViolins

September 11th, 2014 at 5:44 PM ^

 
Natch. 
 
An aspect I may have overlooked here but what was apparent to me watching the game live is why the offense occupied so much time in the huddle and to the LOS. Was this attributable to
 
- ND's new D coordinator as well as his style and the unknowns
- Nussmeier's manner of sending in plays given Nuss works from the sideline now
- Calming and resting players
- Gardner's wristband or lack of referring to it
- ?
 
Down by several scores, I had expected the O to increase tempo and exploit every second. Alas.
 

ChicagoGangViolins

September 11th, 2014 at 6:17 PM ^

 
Pancakes and syrup. Michigan Football and doom go together like that. Doom perpetually lurks around the corner if we are vying for a title. And when we are up to our chests in doom, it can only get doomier unless things actually improve and then we are back to square one. Of course there are girls in Eurostyle doom-e boots but that's an unrelated topic.

quakertown

September 11th, 2014 at 6:38 PM ^

so forgive me it this has already been covered...

I've been running the numbers and over the past three years Kelly's home win percentage against teams that finish the season with at least 8 wins is 0.833.  Notre Dame is a tough place to win, even for the good teams. Couple this with the litany of mistakes above and you might expect a lopsided score, say along the lines of 31/37 -- 0.

I don't know if Umich can get it turned around -- I don't know enough about scheme or personnel, but I can say this:  Dantonio's home winning percentage under the same conditions is 0.500. Though his tenure long home win percentage against good teams is a little higher (0.526), MSU is just not the house of horrors for good teams like it has been for michigan.

Hoke has got to make his stand at State. Win there and hold serve to keep this thing going.

edit: typos

alum96

September 11th, 2014 at 6:18 PM ^

Strange days.

Coming into the season people said this team was like MSU of 2013.  The defense had to carry the offense early until the offense found itself.  Then in a few weeks it would be pretty ok.

I readily disputed the notion because MSU's offense problems of 2013 were very different than UM's offense problems of 2014.  We had a QB, and RBs and WRs.  We lacked OL.   MSU 2013 had OL and WRs but lacked QB and RBs.

Reading this UFR it seems maybe the offense is going to be a lot more like MSU 2013 than I thought.  They were juggling 3 QBs early until settling on Cook who transformed in a way rarely seen in 1 college season, and instead of converted LB Riley Bullough being the lead back it was a converted (whatever he used to be) Langford. 

I wrote a few weeks ago i was still worried about Gardner because I saw nothing different in the spring game or scrimmage from the 2nd half 2013 Gardner at Iowa, Northwestern, etc.  And this was that same Devin.  I dont think he will play this bad in all the games or anything but right now I have come to accept Devin is Devin and it's not going to change much.  There will be 2 games this year he looks like Vince Young, 2 games (hopefully this is 1) where he doesnt look like he has arrived to the game, and a lot of other games where his variability can change from quarter to quarter but it averages out to...well ok.

As for the RBs... welp.

In the bigger picture it is easier to fix the RB then the OL because it is 1 man versus 5.  But it  might not be this year.   Will be a very interesting 2015 at that position - unless Isaac is a bust he might go right to the top of the food chain and the way things are headed Mike Weber migh go straight to #2 or #3 at worst.  Vision and balance are just not things you can "fix" easily - and those are Green's issues.

alum96

September 11th, 2014 at 6:59 PM ^

Brian touched on this earlier this week and it echos my thoughts going back to last year.  Disclosure - I was hoping Jackson would retire after 2013 with his son graduating. 

We have not had a back "developed" in a decade.  Chris Perry in my mind is the last back to 'develop'.  Mike Hart did not developed per se.  He was one of those guys who "has it".  I am sure with experience and coaching he was incrementally improved but the intangibles that make a great back - Mike Hart was showing those in game 4-5-6 of his freshman year.  If would be akin to saying - if Peppers is all he is cracked up to be - it was due to Manning. 

With that said Jackson seems to be an institution at UM and it seems more important to hang onto our institutions rather than have a great team.

On the positive side, hopefully Funk is showing us we are not in a similar state on the OL.  We'll know better in 7-8 weeks if the OL shows progress.

UMForLife

September 11th, 2014 at 6:34 PM ^

Nice UFR. Little promising. Basically, we have three issues.
1. RBs with no vision
2. CBs with bad technique on press
3. QB with a bad internal clock issue

Better than what we had last year. Once Taylor and Peppers show up, we can get a little better on 2.
As Smith plays more, let us hope he can pop a fee yards more often.
DG is who he is. Let us hope Nuss can teach him to read the defense better and he gains more confidence on OL as the season goes on.

Let us see if UTAH game is better. Need to see improvement every game. Kind of sucks that Longford will outplay out RBs. We need a miracle...

evenyoubrutus

September 11th, 2014 at 6:56 PM ^

It seems like there's a good chance that mid season development/competition may result in Glasgow moving back to center so Kalis can start at guard. So maybe we shouldn't assume things won't change but regardless that is way better than treating them like a baseball lineup and shuffling things every game.

funkywolve

September 12th, 2014 at 10:38 AM ^

If the current oline continues to do what they are doing (which at this point seems to be opening holes and giving Gardner decent time) if not possibly get better, I'd be hesitant about rearranging 40% of the oline.  I realize you always want to get your best players on the field but one of the big aspects of the oline is playing together and working as a unit.  Would you want to take the chance of possibly breaking up a serviceable unit knowing that maybe you get better but at the same maybe the changes blow up and the oline regresses?

cobra14

September 11th, 2014 at 7:02 PM ^

At RB. On this site do most people feel this kid alone can cure everything? I've never in my life seen fans adore a guy who does so little in a winged helmet. He was a major part of the offense Saturday that led us to 0 points.

Put Norfleet at QB. No put him at center. Try him at CB that will fix everything. Unbelievable!

MGoStrength

September 11th, 2014 at 7:35 PM ^

I am not one to say let's start Morris.  What I am wondering is where Morris is in his development?  I kinda came to the conclusion for the first time that Gardner is what he is and won't ever be a great QB, despite is pretty great talent.  He just doesn't read defenses well nor make good decisions consistently.  So, without a great line or great RBs, which he will never have, he will be forced to play under pressure, and will likely not do great in those situations against quality defenses.  Morris is no longer a true freshman.  He was a highly recruited guy with a big arm and is also very mobile and can use his feet.  Where do we think he is now with his development and how much time should he get this season in order to be ready to go full tilt next year?  Further, if Gardner happens to have a few more games like this one, does Morris get a shot with the 1s?

Leonhall

September 11th, 2014 at 9:28 PM ^

i'm not saying Gardner will never have another good game, but its obvious he struggles against teams that pressure. He is very hesitant throwing, running, everything. He has no confidence in these scenarios. mechanically he still throws off his back foot, and also locks in on receivers. like i said, it will be the same devin, great games, horrible games...I would like to see drake johnson get more carries at RB...

gwkrlghl

September 11th, 2014 at 7:51 PM ^

so everything gets hyper scruntized and anguished over. It seems like we're a good team that just had a terrible game. I have a feeling we will all be more sane when we're 6-1 going into East Lansing

M-Dog

September 11th, 2014 at 10:31 PM ^

We may be good next year, Y'all.

The areas that are weaknesses on O and D all get upgrades with more experienced / better players.  The areas that are strengths stay that way.

It will all come down to Mr. Morris.  If he can hit the ground running we can reach that long-elusive goal of legitimately competing for the b1G championship. 

Not a good time to fire the coach.  

Yes it sounds like "wait until next year" but fuck it, wait until next year.