Upon Further Review 2013: Defense vs CMU Comment Count

Brian

FORMATION NOTES: Michigan played this one vanilla, opting for either their traditional 4-3 under…

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…or a 4-2-5 nickel package…

4-2-5-nickel

Furman is offscreen on the right hash.

…with the occasional insertion of a 3-3-5 on passing downs. There was no okie stuff with seven guys at the line of scrimmage, and it was very rare to see a safety walk down. With the line ripping through Central's pass protection there was little need to do anything else. If Michigan could manage that against a tough opponent that would be nice.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: ALL OF THE SUBSTITUTIONS

Right. Seth has already covered this in exacting detail. In brief: the secondary was consistent, with Furman and Wilson at safety and Taylor and Countess the starting corners. When Michigan went to the nickel, Stribling and Hollowell were about even, with Stribling getting the first at-bats.

Inside linebacker was split almost evenly between Morgan, Ross, and Bolden, with Gedeon getting some reps later and RJS right at the end. SAM was about 50/50 Beyer/Gordon, except that a lot of that was at DE in nickel packages.

Okay. The line. Okay. Your nominal starters were Heitzman, Washington, Black, and Clark, except there was so much nickel that the nose was lifted half the time. Wormley, Pipkins, Glasgow, and Ojemudia got a large amount of time backing up the starters. Godin, Ash, Henry, and Charlton got in later. Godin actually split snaps almost equally with the other two SDEs; at the other three spots the third guy was definitively third.

[After THE JUMP: rotation, rotation, rotation. Pass rush! Safety assessments!]

Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O25 1 10 Ace trips 4-3 under Pass 5 Hitch Countess 17
Countess playing eight yards off at the snap with no one underneath him, so a hitch here is close to guaranteed. Countess(-1, cover -1) should be there to tackle on the catch; isn't, lets WR turn upfield for healthy YAC.
O42 1 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Run N/A Inside zone Morgan -1
The Morgan stick play. Black(+1) drives a guard two yards back; Washington(+1) does the same, so it ends up three blockers on two guys on the frontside with no holes. Easy job for Morgan(+1, tackling +1) to read, see the cutback developing, and move into Tipton for a bang-you're-dead TFL.
O41 2 11 Shotgun twins twin TE 4-3 over Pass 6 PA Wheel Countess? Inc
Michigan sends an MSU-style twisting double A gap blitz. QB pulls as Heitzman(-0.5) thinks the tailback has it and bites up a step. Only a half because he recovers to chase somewhat effectively. The other half of this play is a bubble screen/QB run option. Heitzman makes the QB run unattractive, and then M's DBs charge up, leaving the bubble receiver open up the sideline for a nice gain. Ball is deflected by Countess(+1). Cover –1 for the dangerous avenue up the field, though that play should have drawn an illegal man downfield penalty. Refs –1.
O41 3 11 Shotgun trips Nickel even Pass 4 Sack Beyer -2
Line is Clark/Wormley/Black/Beyer. QB has one read covered(+1) and then he's in trouble. M stunted Beyer and Black; Beyer(+3) burrows through two players to get six yards in the backfield; Wormley(+1) bulled a guy back as well. QB tries to scramble up through the pocket, at which point Beyer grabs him and sacks. QB is trying to flip to his RB, ball comes out.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 13 min 1st Q. Michigan blocks the punt and scores.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O25 1 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass 4 Hitch Countess Inc
Someone doesn't get a call here as Glasgow is absolutely stunting outside and Frank Clark is not diving inside. That seems like a Clark screwup, but Clark(+1, pressure +1) does beat up on a tackle and threaten the QB. QB gets off a wobbler hitch that's dropped; Countess(+0.5, cover +1) was there for an immediate tackle on a six yard completion this time.
O25 2 10 I-Form 4-3 under Run N/A Iso Glasgow? 7
Very confusing play here as Glasgow seems to think he's stunting with Pipkins and then decides he's not. This has convinced the G over him to move on, so he gets penetration and almost tackles for loss. RB escapes. Now RB heads outside a gap where Clark(-1) is upfield and sealed and Ross is taking on not only the FB but the G who ignored Glasgow. He is to the correct side but can't disengage because he's held; no call(refs -1). Tipton through the line; quick fill from Wilson(+0.5) holds it down; Wilson's tackle allows some YAC. Glasgow -1, I think, as his weirdness here made it hard for Ross to do much.
O42 3 3 Shotgun 3-wide Nickel over Pass 4 Slant Stribling Inc
Stribling(-1, cover -1) cleanly beat on the slant; QB turfs the ball. Beyer(+0.5, pressure +1) got a run at at tailback and leap over it to bother, perhaps forcing the incompletion. Check out James Ross crushing a TE's route to the ground.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 12 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M6 1 G Shotgun trips TE Nickel over Run N/A Zone read keeper Taylor 1
Michigan shoots CGordon inside on the snap, blitzing Taylor off the corner. This both nerfs the inside zone and gets a pull that is contained. RPS +1. Taylor(+0.5) forms up and forces the QB inside, making contact behind the line; Bolden(+1) read and reacted well, finishing the play.
M5 2 G Ace 4-4 even Run N/A Inside zone Wilson 3
Pipkins(+1) takes a double and goes nowhere, which means Black is not getting addressed by the G; instead the tackle has to try to get him. He does not. Black(+2) shoots into the backfield and just misses a TFL. RB has to stop and cut all the way to the backside of the play and that should be it except Wilson(-1) sucked down and is not able to contain. Ojemudia(-1) also got handled back there, which didn't help Wilson make a decision. Furman(+1) reads the cutback and jets down into the melee, passing Wilson and making first contact as the play nears the sideline; Countess(+1, tackling +1) lays a pretty good lick to stop any progress.
M2 3 G I-Form Big Goal line Run N/A Iso Heitzman 1
C gets under Washington(-1) and drives him back. Heitzman(+2) slants behind that block and blows up the intended lane; Godin(+2) drives a TE back and to the inside, coming around after that guy releases to the second level to get a tackle in; Bolden(+0.5) redirected to find the hole and also help stop things. On the frontside, Black(+1) had beaten a block and absorbed his guy and the FB, leaving Morgan free to hit if it went there.
M1 4 G I-Form Big Goal line Penalty N/A Delay N/A -5
Oops.
Drive Notes: FG(23), 7-3, 9 min 1st Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O20 1 10 Shotgun empty Nickel even Pass 6 Drag Washington Inc
Hollowell in for Stribling. Michigan shows blitz with both ILBs and sends them; Clark gets a free run as the guy most distant from the QB(pressure +1). This hurries the throw. Washington(+1, pressure +1) bats it down. Countess(+1, cover +1) was all over this short drag anyway. RPS +1.
O20 2 10 Shotgun trips Nickel even Run N/A Zone read keeper Morgan 1
Morgan moves up and thwaps Clark(+0.5) to move inside; he does. He then shoots upfield as this is a zone read and he's unblocked. He first seems to come down on the back and then redirects to the QB; given the way the play looks I think that is correct. An RB keep is a cutback and a lot of yards and Morgan is hanging out over the slot. WR shoots by Countess, who is now over the bubble option and Morgan(+1, tackling +1) comes up, doesn't bite on a throw fake, and makes another no-YAC tackle.
O21 3 9 Shotgun trips Nickel even Pass 4 Screen Wilson -4
Michigan sends Ross and drops Clark out; M gets a screen at this action. Wilson is moving to the line at the snap to replace Ross, and for some reason the WR cracking down ignores him. It looks like he assumes he's getting Ross and when he blitzes he does not replace Ross with Wilson in his head. Wilson(+1, tackling +1) proceeds to annihilate the running back on the catch. Impressive speed and recognition, but not quite as awesome of a play as it seemed live. RPS +2.
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-3, 5 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O17 1 10 Ace trips tight 4-3 under Run N/A Iso Morgan 4
Somewhat reminiscent of last year as it the line slants without the linebackers understanding what that means. The DL all shift a gap over as Ojemudia backs out; Morgan(-0.5) does not trust that Beyer(+0.5) will dive inside the split-out two-point TE and gets clunked by the fullback two yards downfield. He keeps his feet and actually tackles after a mediocre gain, which is impressive and makes me want to delete the minus. But no. Ross(+0.5) had come under a blocker and was ready to cut this down for less if Morgan was ready to trust Beyer here.
O21 2 6 Ace 3-wide Nickel over Run N/A Inside zone Wormley 11
CMU gets a crease as Wormley(-1) gets comboed and sealed, allowing a blocker to pop out on Ross; Ojemudia(-0.5) also gets kicked out some distance to provide the crease. Ross(-1) maybe could have hit to the outside more and funnel to help but I don't know if that help would have been there as there was a backside crease as well. Taylor(+1, tackling +1) does a nice job to read it, come off his guy, and tackle before a safety could arrive.
O32 1 10 I-Form 4-3 under Pass 4 Post Furman Inc
Actually decent pressure as Wormley and Black collapse the pocket; can't quite get to the QB. Countess has shaded to the outside and funneled to his his centerfielder, which is Furman. I don't like that the WR seems over the top here but Furman does seem to be basically step for step and if he's got anything he's got makeup speed. Their legs tangle and both guys fall over. This seems like a push.
O32 2 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 nickel over Pass 4 Slant Taylor Inc
Wilson rolls down. Irrelevant, but hey. A slant that's behind the WR and dropped; Taylor (+0.5, cover push) was there to harass. Could have broken it up if it was better thrown.
O32 3 10 Shotgun 4-wide Nickel even Pass 4 Scramble Taylor 13
DTs stunt. Godin gets cut off by OL and can't get over to where Pipkins started from. Clark tried an edge rush, didn't get it, and got blown way upfield. Running lane. I'm not minusing Clark because it's third and ten and this guy is not Denard; go ahead. Taylor(-1) slipped as he tried to change direction and come up, which gives the QB the window he needs between Taylor and Ross to pick up the first with some help from a downfield blocker.
O45 1 10 I-Form 4-3 under Run N/A Iso Black 16
Another slant with the WDE folding back. I'm not entirely sure what's wrong here. Could be Black flying upfield, providing a crease. Could be Ross not funneling back to Bolden. Could be Clark diving inside. I think it's a little bit of all three, but more Black(-1) getting too far upfield too fast and providing a big lane outside than any other one thing. Clark(-1) did end up buried; Bolden(-1) doesn't scrape over the top to help and maybe end this after a few yards. Godin(+0.5) swam through a guy on the backside to fill a hole very well; Washington(+0.5) held up to a double.
M39 1 10 Ace trips tight 3-4 base Pass 5 Waggle drag Morgan 7
Beyer flares out really wide, outside of all three bunched WRs as Furman pulls to the line. Central goes PA and then shoots a receiver backwards across the line. Clark attacks, then holds up. The WR does have to go around him and covering a receiver is not his job. It's Morgan's, who takes some steps to the run and then perceives what's happening, bailing out at a great angle to get depth and cut the WR off as soon as is feasible. I could give either guy a minus half, I guess, but RPS –1 seems better.
M32 2 3 I-form 3-wide 4-3 under Run N/A Iso Morgan 4
Late motion in from a WR to make this an I-form from the ace trips tight. Michigan stunts Glasgow right out of the POA. Big crease. Morgan(+1) takes on a fullback head on, sheds to the playside, and gets a tackle in. Wilson also fills, maybe a little late, but this is mostly just an RPS play. RPS -1.
M28 1 10 I-Form 4-3 under Run N/A Power O Heitzman 0
Heitzman(+3) destroys the TE trying to block down on him, chucks him away, and makes a zero-yard tackle by himself.
M28 2 10 I-Form twins 3-4 base Pass 5 Post Wilson Inc
Ross and Morgan sent as Ojemudia backs out; CMU picks it up (pressure -1). Pipkins is surging through late but this is pretty decent time. Pass is a post that Wilson(+2, cover +2) almost picks off. Countess(+1) also in position to make a play on the ball.
M28 3 10 Shotgun 3-wide Nickel even Pass 4 Drag Ojemudia 8 (Pen -5)
Ojemudia(+1, pressure +1) gets around the edge, flushing the QB. He hits a TE crossing route that Ross(-1, cover -1) left open in favor of charging the QB. Comes back for a illegal formation.
M33 3 15 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 nickel Pass 3 Seam Black Inc
Black(+3, pressure +3) rips up the middle in a three man rush, nailing the QB and forcing an errant throw. Ojemudia also was getting to the QB.
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-3, 10 min 2nd Q. Punt from the M 33 goes in endzone. Student of the master.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
M29 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide Nickel even Pass 4 Corner Wilson Inc
Ojemudia(+0.5) gets enough of a rush along with CGordon(+0.5) to induce a quick throw. It's a corner route that is OOB. Wilson(+1, cover +1) had that zone in a cover three and was in very good position.
M29 2 10 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 stack Pass 4 Sack CGordon -5
CGordon stacked over the nose. M sends him and Ross up the middle. C is on the nose, G takes Ross, Gordon(+1, pressure +3) flies up the middle unmolested to sack. RPS +3. Mattison sacktacularrr.
M34 3 15 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 nickel Penalty N/A False start N/A -5
Erps
M39 3 20 Shotgun 3-wide Nickel even Pass 4 Corner Furman 23
Bolden bailing out into a tampa-two coverage so the two safeties have the outside zones in the three deep. Furman(-3, cover -3) does not get the memo and is way late on a corner route. CGordon(+1, pressure +1) had just come around the corner and was going to sack if the QB took one second longer.
M16 1 10 Ace 3-wide Nickel over Pass N/A Bubble screen Furman Inc
Countess shows blitz early. CMU checks into a bubble and misses it, but Furman had come down and was likely to blow this up anyway. RPS +1.
M16 2 10 Shotgun 2TE twins 4-3 even Pass 4 Hitch Countess Inc
Looks like the WR screws up as he turns this into an in and then starts backpedaling back to where he was once the ball is in the air; goes over his head. Probably a decent short completion if not for the screwup; good protection(pressure -1)
M16 3 10 I-form 3-wide Nickel even Run N/A Iso Bolden 6
Motion from a trips look to the I-form and then an iso on third and ten. Defensible if you're going on fourth down. They don't. Indefensible. They get past the LOS because M is pass rush focused but the FB screws up and turns around. Bolden is there to kick it outside; Hollowell(-1, tackling -1) shoots up to fill and gets run through. This turns two yards into six but this was never getting the first down. If Michigan did this I would RPS minus it.
Drive Notes: FG(27), 21-6, 8 min 2nd Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O23 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide Nickel over Run N/A Inside zone Ross 4
M understandably pass oriented with two minutes left in the half. Ross(+1) gets a good hit on a releasing guard to fill a hole and force a cutback, which allows Wormley(+0.5) to disengage and tackle(+1) after giving some ground. Given context, this yardage is more than acceptable.
O27 2 6 Shotgun 4-wide Nickel even Pass 4 Out Taylor 21
Good time (pressure -1); good throw to a WR who sits down in a hole in the zone. They went high-low on Taylor(-1, cover -1) and as a result of Taylor sucking up they give up the deeper throw. Wilson tackles quickly.
O48 1 10 Shotgun 4-wide Nickel even Pass 6 Out Taylor 7
Quick hitter; Taylor pops the guy OOB on the catch. A push.
M45 2 3 Ace 3-wide Nickel even Pass 4 Out Taylor INT
And Taylor(+3, cover +3) makes 'em pay for picking on him. Taylor has no help here and may expose himself to a double move but results based charting yo. As the WR breaks out he jumps the route, picking it off.
Drive Notes: Interception, 28-6, 1 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O10 1 10 Shotgun trips Nickel even Pass 4 Waggle drag CGordon Inc
CGordon(+1, pressure +1) is on the corner and reads the fake. He runs up at the QB and bats the pass back in his face.
O10 2 10 I-Form 4-3 under Run N/A Draw Heitzman 4
Ross sent on a blitz; he ends up shoved past the play as the CMU G doubling Washington just does get a hand on him. Washington(-1) ends up falling to the ground. Heitzman(+1) gets some penetration and mucks up the run lane; FB hits the OL blocking him. Morgan(+0.5) takes that guy on at the LOS and CGordon(+0.5) has the presence to come off his blocker and tackle from the side.
O14 3 6 Shotgun 4-wide 3-3-5 nickel Pass 3 Out Clark Inc
First read covered(+1); QB has to wait. This allows Clark(+1, pressure +1) to bull the OL back and eventually pop around him for an honest to God QB hurry not on a free run.
Drive Notes: Punt, 42-6, 11 min 3rd Q. Norfleet's PR comes back because of a penalty.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O25 1 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Run N/A Power O Wormley 0
Wormley(+1) occupies both the TE and LT, so no one gets out on a linebacker. This is also seven in the box versus six blockers, so both ILBs are free and crush the back in the hole. Half points for Ross and Morgan. RPS +1, by default.
O25 2 10 Ace trips Nickel over Pass 4 Sack Beyer -7
Beyer(+3, pressure +3) rips around the right tackle and sacks. Ojemudia helped make the guy hold up, but also got shoved backwards elaborately first.
O18 3 17 Shotgun trips tight 4-3 even Pass 4 Sack Ojemudia -4
Ojemudia(+3, pressure +3) rips through the left tackle, gets held, and still sacks.
Drive Notes: Punt, 49-6, 3 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O25 1 10 I-Form twins 4-3 under Run N/A Iso Ojemudia -1
M stunts Black and Ojemudia(+1.5); Ojemudia comes between the two Gs and gets into the lane as one releases to block Black. Pipkins(+1.5) bulls two guys back and the RB has nowhere to go but down in the backfield.
O24 2 11 Ace twins 4-3 even Pass 5 Sack CGordon -7
M sends a twist blitz with Bolden and Gordon that gets Gordon(+1, pressure +3) through to sack. RPS+2.
O17 3 18 Shotgun 3-wide Nickel even Pass 4 Fly Wilson 43
Too much time(pressure -2), though Strobel does delay any throw by leaping as the QB looks to pass. Ojemudia eventually gets loose to hit the guy, but too late. He unleashes a deep ball that finds a guy wide open; Furman tackles just about on the catch. I do think this is on Wilson(-3, cover -3), who started chasing a deep cross late. But so much time.
M39 1 10 I-Form twins 4-3 over Pass 4 Bubble screen Furman 9 + 15 pen
Furman(-1, tackling -1) comes up hard on this... too hard. WR ducks inside of him for a nice gain. Stribling tackles, gets a facemask tacked on.
M15 1 10 Shotgun trips TE Nickel even Run N/A QB down G Charlton -3
Charlton(+2) blows the TE way in the backfield. Wormley(+2) does the same. Charlton misses but slows the guy significantly, buying time for Wormley, who does not miss.
M18 2 13 I-Form 4-3 under Pass 5 Slant Hollowell Inc
Too quick for anything to get home. Hollowell(+1, cover +1) makes a good break on the ball and would have a decent shot at a PBU if the WR hadn't flat dropped it already.
M18 3 13 Shotgun 4-wide tight Nickel even Pass 4 Dumpoff Gedeon 1
Henry gets a decent rush; coverage(+2) is good; checkdown, Gedeon(+1, tackling +1) tackles in space easily.
Drive Notes: FG(34), 56-9, 11 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Rush Play Player Yards
O24 1 10 Power I 4-3 under Pass 4 Slant Stribling 10
Stribling's playing a long way off and can't get there; he does rake out the ball as he tackles. Given game situation, skipping any minuses here. Stribling had no chance to defend this by alignment. Stribling(+1, tackling +1)
Drive Notes: Fumble, 56-9, 10 min 4th Q. When CMU gets the ball back it's time for the guys way down on the depth chart; charting ceases.

I'm not really that impressed but then I look at the box score and I'm like whoah.

Yeah. 5.1 yards an attempt.

Alex Nisnak could start for Michigan State.

Oh man I hope they don't get better this week, because I've been riding that harrrrd.

Anyway: also 2.3 yards a rush and barely over 200 yards on the game, two turnovers acquired, and really about three points given up: two Central field goal drives started on the Michigan 6 and 29 yard line thanks to turnovers. Central had 12 opportunities, which is rather a lot, and went three and out five times. Dominant.

Caveat: this was a mediocre MAC team that lost its starting QB and RB early.

I marveled at this thing they did.

Oh yes?

So sometimes they had guys between Michigan's guys and the ball, and then at some point they were no longer between Michigan's guys and the ball. I felt this was a good thing, in general.

Ah yes, the ol' don't get blocked by a guy. Classic move. Michigan tried it with frequency. Why don't you look at this—

CHORT

Are we still on with the whole chort thing? Really?

yes

Fine. Chort.

Before we start: take any individual numbers in the front seven lightly. The chart tracks 51 snaps and the rotation was so heavy that hardly anyone got more than half of those. The nose tackles were only on the field for half of those 51 snaps, so if Washington didn't seem to do a whole lot that's because I've got maybe a dozen snaps for an interior DL playing a team that mostly tries short passes.

Defensive Line
Player + - T Notes
Heitzman 6 0.5 5.5 Had a couple of nice +2 plays.
Washington 2.5 2 0.5 Lifted a lot for spread business.
Black 7 1 6 Flashed pass rush a couple times.
Clark 2.5 2 0.5 Does seem improved.
Wormley 4.5 1 3.5 Nice push a couple times.
Pipkins 2.5 - 2.5 Spread also cut into his PT.
Glasgow - 1 -1 Seemed to miss a check on his minus.
Ojemudia 5 1.5 3.5 Sack + hold is not 4 points here, but could be in your heart.
Godin 2.5 - 2.5 Mostly a single goal line play.
Ash - - - did not chart
Henry - - - DNC
Charlton 2 - 2 Instigated late TFL.
TOTAL 34.5 9 25.5 SDE production the most encouraging thing.
Linebacker
Player + - T Notes
C.Gordon 5 - 5 Only got +1 for sacks as they were free runs. Willing to hear arguments that's too stingy.
Morgan 4 0.5 3.5 Crunch crunch bang bang
Ross 2 1 1 Quiet, as run game was pretty nonexistent.
Beyer 7 - 7 Wow experience.
Ryan - - - DNP
Bolden 1.5 1 0.5 Feelingsball take: looked more confident.
Gedeon 1 - 1 Young Skywalker.
Jenkins-Stone - - - DNC
TOTAL 20.5 2.5 18 Little got to them because of the DL number, and mistakes were rare indeed.
Secondary
Player + - T Notes
Countess 4.5 1 3.5 Picked it up after first play was poor.
Taylor 5 2 3 Got picked on, then picked.
Stribling 1 1 0 Quite a rise.
Hollowell 1 1 0 Missed tackle a bit alarming.
T. Gordon - - - DNP
Avery - - - DNP
Wilson 4.5 4 0.5 I'm more positive on him in feelingsball world.
Furman 1 4 -3 Fast, but too many mistakes.
J. Clark - - - DNC
Hill - - - DNC
TOTAL 17 13 4 Safeties clearly the weak point.
Metrics
Pressure 27 5 22 Hello!
Coverage 13 10 3 Getting greedy as I want this to be more positive.
Tackling 8 2 80% Morgan will stick you.
RPS 11 2 9 Injury to injury.

So… that's pretty awesome. CMU was overmatched and only got more so when their top QB and RB went out early; conclusions drawn here should be slathered with layers of disclaimers. But if you asked Michigan fans what they were worried about on defense, they would have said pass rush and safety.

The pass rush was dominant, sacking CMU five times and hurrying them another half-dozen. Most of those were not blitz-generated; a couple were Black roaring up the middle nearly uncontested on passing downs.

If that happens your best possible result is a flailing incompletion. Beyer, Clark, and Ojemudia all beat blockers to make plays. It was a good day.

The safeties… well, I did end up giving the big minus on CMU's long pass to Wilson. More on that later.

Finally: linebacker. I've got at total of 2.5 minuses, which is nuts. Playing linebacker is hard. Gameplan had a lot to do with that—freshman backup QB is not going over the middle, where linebackers often get minused—and Zurlon Tipton got hurt. Even so, I be like dang.

Are we still as excited about Not Jake Ryan as we were over the weekend?

Pretty much, yeah. On review those two guys didn't do much more than the spectacular stuff you are already aware of, but they didn't do much wrong, either. Four sacks is quite a return from one position, even if Beyer inexplicably didn't get credit for one. Beyer wins the cookie for beating guys on his sacks; Cam Gordon got help from Mattison on both of his. It was pretty shocking to see Beyer straight up pwn offensive linemen like this:

He was supposed to be the reliable, boring run defender guy. You can throw caveats at this all you want but you probably shouldn't: Michigan had one sack against UMass last year and Jake Ryan didn't play. The five sacks Michigan got from the SAM/WDE spots are only three and a half fewer than Michigan got from those positions all last year. Even if Central is a terrible team, Michigan still looks like they took a major step forward in the Right To Rush Four category.

The strongside ends are everywhere, scoring points.

Yes. There was little separation between them. Wormley made a couple plays, Heitzman made a very good one…

…and they seemed like they'd splits snaps all year. Godin even got in on the act, slanting under an OL to help tackle Tipton after Heitzman blew up the intended lane. I got the impression that CMU's tight end (the guy Heitzman blows up) was a very bad player over the course of the game and worry this is something that will evaporate in the heat of an actual opponent. Again, as first impressions go it was a necessary step towards optimism.

And what about Jarrod Wilson, you panic-inducing person, you?

His game mostly holds up. I do think he was the guy who was responsible for the long pass CMU completed, as you can (barely) perceive that he starts chasing after a deep crossing route, opening up the route behind that Furman tackles on.

I'm also a bit dubious about his actions on that cutback run that almost ended up in the endzone. He's hanging out on the backside of the play as the edge defender. The guy cannot get outside of him:

He gets bailed out by Countess and to a lesser extent Furman, who understandably steps playside but should probably not go under that linebacker once he sees the cutback. Furman makes up for it—you can see him outdistancing Wilson as they chug to the running back together—but that play should have been no gain or a TFL and it required Blake Countess bailing those guys out to stop it.

But Wilson blew up a screen, had nice coverage on a corner route that went out of bounds, and flashed that coveted free safety attribute on his pass breakup:

Ranginess. That is a high leap from a tall man that high-points a ball. I love Kovacs with every fiber of my being but he's never making that play. Nor is he vacating that zone above, yeah. If Wilson can just figure it out he showed athleticism that could make him very, very good. If.

Help me out coach types?

This one seems to be about three and a half mistakes, one from Black, one from Clark, and one from Ross, but I don't have a strong opinion here:

Black gets too far upfield. Clark gets beat up by his blocker in the end, and Ross leaves a gap to the outside… maybe. Maybe Black is supposed to be able to cut this off.

Heroes?

You can pick anyone who saw the field and have a pretty good answer. Black, Ojemudia, Beyer, and Cam Gordon stand out above a crowded field for decimating the Central Michigan pass protection.

Maybe not so heroic type persons?

Josh Furman did get lost a bit too much. His stock is actually up with me overall—he did look dang fast and laid a couple licks. Consistency is always the thing at safety, though.

I wanted Frank Clark to be more annihilating. He wasn't bad, necessarily, but he was overshadowed by not one but two other defensive end types.

What does it mean for Notre Dame and beyond?

Like the offense, a question-mark position did very well for itself, offering hope that it'll be night and day from last year. That was the OL on offense. Here it's the pass rush. We can't say anything for sure about either; both units turned in a necessary clubbing. In particular, Michigan's nickel package featuring Beyer/Clark/Black/Wormley looks very tough to block. And if they can flip out Wormley for Ryan midseason? Hoo boy.

Michigan is serious about their line depth. Everywhere except three-tech is in a co-starter situation, and in a good way.

Jarrod Wilson made a lot of progress over the offseason—or at least the last two weeks of it—and has a great package of size and speed.

Joe Bolden is basically a third starter at LB.

Strongside end is going to be a platoon. Early returns there are good. Like the pass rush, need more data before confidence comes.

Comments

MadMonkey

September 5th, 2013 at 4:08 PM ^

see if he has a negative, or too harsh, scoring bias on this UFR.  That can only be viewed as positive.  After years of GERG questions without answers and then the 2011 Mattison Miracle, it will be interesting to see how quickly Brian's observations revert to pre-GERG observations/expectations.  

Brian

September 5th, 2013 at 5:03 PM ^

I try to keep plays in a similar range, so most zero yard runs should end up with players getting +2, a TFL +3, etc. That's always been consistent. I am beginning to think that it would be more accurate if I moved the baseline to five yards or so and made deviations from that more pointy--instead of -3 to -5 for big safety busts, like -10, and +5 for sacks--but that's a big change from my historical norms and has to be thought about more rigorously than just saying "eh, let's do it."

Space Coyote

September 5th, 2013 at 5:07 PM ^

It would put too much emphasis on a single play rather than how they played as a whole. You can draw emphasis from single comments, be it in the charts or when you're talking to your bolded-self, you can't do as much with talking about how they played as a whole.

I actually think +/-3 should be even more rare than they are for the same reasons. I also think you don't give Borges enough RPS +1 (likely because I think it's easier to see defensive RPS) for plays that aren't necessarily huge, but are plays that he's countering the defensive look to pick up a nice chunk of yards, but again, that's just like, my opinion, man.

MadMonkey

September 5th, 2013 at 5:44 PM ^

UFR new scoring range would do a better job describing  (a) player consistency, (b) elite play-making ability, or (c) player-as-major-liability than the current approach.  The cost of the change is comparabiliy to previous data -- short of redoing all previous UFRs (a project no sane person would tackle). 

FWIW, the current system is great.  Almost everybody looks to your narrative in addition to the reviewing the players' scores.  Changing the scoring would make the data fit the narrative better, but you would lose the YOY value.   I think you are better off keeping your existing approach,   The diarists and MGoBlog staff are continuously innovating new data approaches to evaluating and describing performance  -- keep UFR's as the stable gold standard reference point.

 

Wolverine In Iowa

September 5th, 2013 at 6:56 PM ^

I wish to express my gratitude to Brian and company for the best damned football site on the planet.  I also wish to say thank you to all of the contributors on mgoblog.  We are blessed with a humble and knowledagble fan base.

Go Blue

/U-M BA 91'

steve sharik

September 6th, 2013 at 1:09 AM ^

  • First, this is not iso.  It's zone lead.  OG doesn't base the 3-tech; he bucket steps (classic outside zone technique).  Also, center doesn't block down on the nose.
  • It's Cover 3, and the SS (Furman) is dropping into run support.  Therefore, Clark has force/contain to the boundary/weak side.  (Tip off is his extremely wide alignment.)
  • As Space Coyote stated, no way is this a T/E stunt.  You would never have your 3-tech be the contain player.
  • Agree that DL is angling weak (boundary).
  • Agree with Space Coyote that Black is too far upfield.  Once his hips are in that B gap, he needs to fight pressure, not escape.  Biggest problem imo is he tried to rip instead of shooting his hands.
  • Disagree with Space Coyote that Black is the main culprit.
  • Clark is force/contain.  He does not do this.  Coaching proverb: "You don't have to make the tackle to make the play." i.e., do your job.  By going for the tackle, Clark gives up a big run.
  • Hard to tell if Ross has proper leverage on the FB.  Only if we know how they're coaching it (spill or squeeze) do we know for sure.  Correct or not, Ross spills the block.
  • Bolden is responsible for strong A gap to his side and can flow freely on run weak.  He can't simply take off, b/c he is responsible for cutback back to his gap.  However, his problem is that he's too close to the LOS.  He should shuffle as he stays behind the RB.  Once he bounces out, he can turn and run.  In being so low, he gets caught in the wash and can't get over the top to help.
  • Raymon Taylor had a great reaction, but once he blows by the WR, he should position the WR directly behind him.  Instead, he spins back inside and deeper. 

Magnus

September 6th, 2013 at 10:51 AM ^

I'm looking at Black and Clark on that final play. First of all, Black gets WAY too deep before he finds the ball; by then he's taken himself out of the play. Secondly, Clark dips inside before it's necessary, allowing the back enough time to jump back outside. His help is coming from inside (Ross, potentially Bolden), but with the corner in cover 3, Clark can't allow that to spill outside.