Upon Further Review 2012: Offense vs Alabama

Formation notes: Just the usual array of stuff. Mostly shotgun, etc.:

Nothing really jumped out.

Substitution notes: OL was steady until Lewan went out with a thankfully minor injury, at which point it went from Lewan-Barnum-Mealer-Omameh-Schofield to Schofield-Barnum-Mealer-Burzynski-Omameh. At TE, Moore went out early and it was mostly Kwiatkowski with Williams appearing in two-TE sets. Funchess got in very late.

WR starters were Roundtree, Gallon, Gardner. Jeremy Jackson and Dileo were the next most-frequent participants; Jerald Robinson got a little run. At RB, Smith and Rawls and only them. Only Hopkins at FB.

Show? Show.

[Note: I forgot about my RUN+/- separation, but got them for the run chart. I'm probably going to dump the extra confirmation since it's useless.]

YAAARGHFALARGH FALARGH FALRAGH

Which kind of YAAARGH FALARGH is this now?

There are multiple kinds of YAAARGH FALARGH?

Yes. There is the YAAARGH FALARGH that YAAARGHs about Denard getting about two carries in the first half and FALARGHs about the idea that fate has consigned us an offensive coordinator who can make delightful minute adjustments in a West Coast passing offense and a quarterback who can't run them that. Then there is the YAAARGH FALARGH that YAAARGHs about the idea that Rich Rodriguez might have some good ideas when it comes to offense and FALARGHs whenever this here guy points out that Borges is not an invincible superman.

Didn't Rich Rodriguez almost get West Virginia to a national title game?

Yeah.

And put up 48 against Oklahoma and 38 against Georgia in BCS games?

Yeah.

The former then.

An excellent choice.

BUT SIR I WOULD LIKE YOU TO PROVIDE AN IRRITATING DISCLAIMER FIRST

Like, oh my God. Alabama does that to everyone. It is virtually impossible to tell how Michigan will do against an earthly defense when this is basically the best defense since M 1997 minus some important guys and the guys replacing the important guys are dudes like DeMarcus Milliner, who is insane. Insaaaaaaaaaaane.

What happened Saturday may not have any bearing at all on what happens the rest of the year.

Okay, good UFR, let's go home.

Not so fast.

But I want to go home. You have no idea.

There are things to learn! Expectations to tweak!

I would rather not.

Scriven away, Bartleby, this is happening.

Not saying it.

CHART CHART CHART CHART CHART CHART CHART

[A reminder about what this means can be found in the UFR FAQ. Note that screens behind the LOS are in parens, so in the first half of 2011 Denard threw 66 balls labeled catchable, 54 downfield and 12 screens. The DSR metric is Dead On and Catchable balls divided by all throws not marked Marginal, Pressure, or Scramble.]

Yeah.

lol wut

I know. A couple caveats: three of those CAs were late when Milliner had lost interest and a fourth was borderline on a slant that took Gallon off his feet (but was still very catchable), and one of the BRs was of course the BRX—the X stands for XTREME—on the pick six. On the other hand, I marked the Dileo seam an MA because it was behind the guy when you can make a case that he was keeping it away from the defender, and now I feel guilty for asserting that "knowing Denard" it had to be inaccurate. Blame on the first interception can be split between Denard, Borges (no other options), Roundtree, and possibly the refs. Call it a push.

In terms of accuracy, Denard had a good day. Maybe very good. Those first two slants are in the receiver's chest. The problem was that Milliner was also in said chests.

That kid is nasty, and Michigan's wide receivers could not get separation from him unless he fell down. Maybe there was a square foot in which the ball could be caught without Milliner making a play on it… maybe. I doubt it.

Sometimes when it looked like Denard missed, it was his receiver blowing the play. This deep corner looked like an overthrow live, but the replay shows that 1) ain't nobody open, really, and 2) despite that if Gardner does not first slow up and then misjudge the ball once it's in the air this is probably a fantastic completion:

Later in the game, Gallon would run the route correctly for a twenty-yard completion. Even when Denard chucked a back foot throw to Jerald Robinson thirty yards downfield on third and ten, it was right on the money. It was broken up by Milliner, of course, and I'm leery of him trying that again, but we're a results-based charting service.

And then you've got a couple of perfect deep completions plus a third that would have been if not for the Alabama safety coming over and tripping Gardner. He plain missed about as often as McCarron. The difference was in the defenses and the wideouts.

This was actually encouraging. Possibly really encouraging. I know, I know.

But the horrible horrible interceptions!

Yeah, we got the three NOOOO Denard throws: the two picks and a chuck-and-pray to a bracketed Roundtree that was five yards to long and almost intercepted. You'd like for Denard to find someone else, but on at least two of those there was no one else open. So then you'd like him to throw it away or RUN FOR THE LOVE OF GOD JUST RUN, but we're stuck with it, I guess.

This is a situation that, like all situations, may improve when you're not playing Alabama. Various YPAs from veteran QBs against Alabama the last couple years:

• Tyler Wilson, Arkansas: 5.3
• Clint Moseley, Auburn: 3.4
• Ryan Mallett, Arkansas: 9.4
• John Brantley, Florida: 6.5
• Kirk Cousins, MSU: 7.5
• Denard Robinson, M: 7.7

If Michigan's receivers were capable of getting separation—or Michigan had manufactured some with play action Denard—things would have been fine. If Robinson's accuracy continues against mortal defenses he'll have outstanding numbers and Borges will get a gold star.

What about Gardner?

Well, first, the receiverchart. I'll leave the season numbers blank because obviously.

[Passers are rated by catchability:

• 0: uncatchable
• 1: very tough
• 2: moderately tough
• 3: routine

The 0/X in all passes marked zero is implied.]

So there's obviously a huge difference between the accuracy credited Denard above and the catch rankings above. Part of that is Milliner and other guys always covering everything. Part of that that I didn't adjust for crappy routes. This is supposed to be a hands measure. I can only hand-wave at the routes.

Anyway, a routine day in limited opportunities. Hands were fine, separation was not.

And Gardner?

Obviously looked very, very raw. The corner route above is evidence enough of that, and on the touchdown I don't think the 360-degree spin-around is a standard move. His routes suck, but he's a 6'4" guy who can leap out of the gym. We'll see how good that speed is against mortal teams. He should get better day by day; Michigan really needs him.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the freshmen as early as next week.

The run game.

Look away.

So that's the line getting annihilated and getting no plays from the runners save a couple from Denard. Let's not take any of this too seriously until next week.

Ugh, Rawls?

Yeah, for a north-south mooseback he had a case of the Shaws. Go upfield, young man.

Other running type things?

Fitz will obviously be a huge boost. Neither of the guys who got carries broke tackle one, both missed holes, neither juked guy one. I really, really want to reserve judgment on the offensive line until next week. They were straight-up destroyed; let's see what happens later in the season.

Borges said he didn't regret how little Denard ran, and that Alabama was doing stuff with its safeties that prevented Michigan from going with him.

I find that… unconvincing. For one, two of the three runs all night where someone made something despite the blocking being poor were from Denard:

(The other was Smith's 22-yarder.) For two, you can just call his number. There is nothing preventing you from doing that instead of handing off to Rawls or Smith. If you're going into the game thinking "don't get hurt!" why are you even playing it?

By the time Michigan was down a billion, okay, whatever, the next two quarters are an exhibition. If this happens in a critical Big Ten game that Michigan ends up losing, though, the torches and pitchforks will be out in force.

It's not about scheme!

That's the DeBord way to look at it. Players can get beat; so can coaches. Both played a factor in the loss. When you hand off and there's an unblocked guy waiting for you…

…the blocker isn't at fault. Because there isn't one. I'm not sure why Michigan thought they could get away with straight-up inverted veers against Saban nine months after they tore up OSU.

In a weird way, I'm actually encouraged about Borges long-term since his response to a defense that stacks the box is to throw at it. Once you get the receivers and the line and Morris in, that stuff is going to work, and we won't have to facepalm after yet another run into a stacked front on first and ten.

But it is about scheme, in addition to the players getting whipped. A failure that comprehensive touches everyone. E-fact.

Heroes?

Gallon. Maybe Denard? Sort of Denard.

Goats?

Even adjusting for level of competition the OL was very disappointing. While Lewan got off easiest in the run chart, he also got three penalties, two of them legit.

What does it mean for next week and the future?

God willing, nothing whatsoever.

A few things I'll be looking to confirm or disconfirm before Notre Dame:

• Is Denard way more accurate now?
• Will Denard be less interception-prone against humans?
• Is Schofield in trouble at tackle?
• Is Gardner a real actual receiver?

If the OL can't move Air Force I'm going into full on bunker mode.