I believe it is "downfield success rate."
that makes one of us
Gratuitous video of the week: It's only appropriate that we lead off with some fullback SMASH.
THAT'S MANBALL YOU'RE PICKING OUT FROM YOUR SHATTERED TEETH, BRONCO WOOOOO
Reminder: dotted underline mean a video that will pop up for you when you click.
Formation notes: As noted by many, Michigan was about 70% shotgun in this game. They showed some I-form, a few ace sets, a few big sets, and one unbalanced line. I'm not sure breaking down the percentages is going to mean much given the paucity of snaps and big lead. We'll get a better picture of the offense in a pressure situation this week.
Substitution notes: Schofield played the entire game at left guard. Lewan had to come out for a couple snaps after losing a shoe; when that happened Mealer went in at RT and Huyge flipped to LT. Toussaint got the bulk of the work at RB with Shaw and Smith getting carries here and there.
Moore was the second TE and only one to play other than Koger; Hemingway, Roundtree, Gallon, Grady, and Dileo were receivers on passing downs. Jackson played but those were all runs IIRC.
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||RB||TE||WR||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|M24||1||10||Shotgun 3-wide||1||1||3||Base 3-4||Run||Down G||Robinson||11|
|Koger(+1) blocks down on the playside end as Lewan(+1) and Schofield(+1) pull around, both picking off linebackers. Toussaint(+1) leads the way for Robinson, hitting Schofield's guy as he threatens to break outside and driving the pair back into the last LB. Hemingway(-1) totally whiffs on his guy; Robinson can cut past him but slips to the ground just past the first down marker.|
|RUN+: Koger, Lewan, Schofield, Toussaint||RUN-: Hemingway|
|M35||1||10||Shotgun 2TE Twins||1||2||2||Base 3-4||Run||Zone read dive||Toussaint||4|
|The old Minor play where Robinson takes a step towards the LOS late and the RB attacks downhill. It's a little like the pistol. Schofield(+1) kicks out the playside DE; Molk and Omameh double the NT and there is a crease playside. It's getting filled by the S quickly but it's where Toussaint(-1) should go, probably. He cuts back. This puts him in the path of the NT, who is spinning backside; NT falls past the play. Toussaint is nimble enough to get behind him. This means he runs up the back of Molk and Omameh. That S and a few other guys make a pile.|
|RUN+: Schofield, Molk(0.5), Omameh(0.5)||RUN-: Toussaint(0.5)|
|M39||2||6||Shotgun 2TE||1||2||2||Base 3-4||Pass||Hitch||Roundtree||3|
|Simple pitch and catch as the CB bails at the snap. Defense reacts quickly and holds it down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)|
|M42||3||3||Shotgun 3-wide||1||1||3||Base 3-4||Run||QB power off tackle||Robinson||4|
|Schofield pulls around. Huyge(-1) is blocking down and loses his slanting DE a bit. This isn't serious enough to get the DE in but the ground given up almost disrupts Schofield's pull. He does make it, though, kicking out a linebacker(+1). Omameh(+1) pancakes the other MLB; Toussaint(+1) kicks out the playside OLB. Safety is charging hard but can't get to Robinson before the first down.|
|RUN+: Schofield, Toussaint, Omameh||RUN-: Huyge|
|M46||1||10||Shotgun 3-wide||1||1||3||Base 4-3||Pass||Tunnel screen||Gallon||1|
|Man, do I like the bubble way better here. The play action fake sucks the playside OLB up and if this was a bubble it would be one blocker, one defender, and Gallon—probably a good chunk. On the tunnel Gallon's coming inside just as the OLB reads the fake. He forces Gallon upfield and inside. Gallon does well to turn a two yard loss into a minimal gain. (CA, 3, screen, RPS -1)|
|M47||2||9||I-form||2||1||2||Base 4-3||Run||Power off tackle||Smith||4|
|Some third down back. Huyge(+1) gets a much better block this time, nailing his man inside and out of the gap. WMU is playing to spill this: the DE dives inside and an OLB scrapes over the top to catch bounce-outs. DE does a pretty good job, leaving Smith no choice but to hit it up behind Huyge's good block. In there Koger(-0.5) has only done a meh job on the MLB, who is sliding towards the LOS, where he trips Smith. I have an impulse to RPS -1 this that I know is bad.|
|O49||3||5||Shotgun 3-wide||1||1||3||Base 4-3||Run||QB power off tackle||Robinson||10|
|Other side of the line so Omameh pulls. Lewan(+2) goes EPIC DONKEY, first blocking down on the DT with Schofield and sealing him, then peeling to pancake the playside LB. Omameh doesn't really have anyone to block; he's concentrating on the other LB but I'd like to see him read that and beeline for the safety. Those guys end up at a pile at the LOS; Robinson cuts behind it to avoid the safety and gets a few more.|
|RUN+: Robinson, Lewan(2)||RUN-:|
|O39||1||10||Shotgun 2TE||1||2||2||Base 4-4||Pass||PA TE Seam||Koger||11|
|Zone read fake draws up the linebackers and opens up Koger. Robinson zips it high, forcing Koger to extend to grab it. At the same time he gets lit up by the safety. He hangs on. Nice catch. (MA, 1, protection N/A)|
|O28||1||10||Shotgun 3-wide||1||1||3||Base 4-3||Run||Zone read dive||Toussaint||5|
|Doubles on both DTs; the playside one sees Schofield shove the guy and move to the second level, where there is no one to block because the WMU LB has shot up through the gap to the inside. This is to no avail as Toussaint is already outside. He's got a lane. Molk is doing okay against the playside DT and the gap is narrow. That DT reaches out to arm-tackle. Toussaint hops through it and then has to leap over Lewan, who was chucked to the ground by the DE. He's then in no position to deal with the safety; he still gets decent yardage. I think half points for Lewan and Molk for creating the hole and a half point to Toussaint for getting what he can.|
|RUN+: Lewan(0.5), Molk(0.5), Toussaint(0.5)||RUN-:|
|O23||2||5||Shotgun 3-wide||1||1||3||3-3-5 Nickel||Run||QB draw||Robinson||1|
|I'm not sure if this is anyone's fault or just an RPS. WMU line slants playside so the NT ends up impacting Omameh, not Molk. Omameh lets him outside, which means Robinson has to cut behind. This robs Toussaint of his angle on the MLB. I think I do blame Omameh(-1) because Schofield(+1) had the same problem and did better; Molk(-1) still had an MLB angle and whiffed. He tackles after a minimal gain.|
|RUN+: Schofield||RUN-: Molk, Omameh|
|O22||3||4||Shotgun 4-wide||1||0||4||Base 3-4||Pass||Speed out||Dileo||3|
|IE: cover zero. They send seven. Michigan runs speed outs with the slots and I think this is a missed read from the start since the safety is way off Grady on the other out and he's got an easier throw and obvious first down over there. As it is he does have Dileo and probably has a first down; he throws it upfield, forcing a diving catch that takes Dileo off his feet a yard short. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)|
|Straight up the middle with no lead blocker. Eh? Omameh(+1) latches onto the LB blitzing up the A gap and puts him on his ass. Molk(+1) gets under the NT and drives him back, and Huyge(+0.5) gets enough of the last LB. Toussaint slams it up.|
|RUN+: Omameh, Molk, Huyge(0.5)||RUN-:|
|O16||1||10||Shotgun 3-wide||1||1||3||Base 3-4||Run||Zone read dive||Toussaint||-1|
|Lewan loses his shoe. Huyge flips to LT and Mealer comes in at RT. Blitz/slant from WMU. Blitzer cuts off the frontside of the play; on the backside Schofield(-1) and Huyge(-1) let the DE slant between them into the backfield. Schofield ends up running into Huyge behind the LOS. Mealer(-1) ends up blocking no one. Toussaint slows up and is lost. Run-: Mealer, Huyge, Schofield|
|O17||2||11||Shotgun 3-wide||1||1||3||3-3-5 Nickel||Pass||Dig||Grady||15|
|PA stretch into the passing play where the TE leaks into the flat. WMU's WLB makes a great play; he's blitzing into the backside. He whacks Koger, then grabs him a bit and starts riding him downfield. First read closed. Robinson comes off it and hits Grady in the numbers just as he clears one linebacker in zone. Catch, first and goal. (CA+, 3, protection N/A)|
|O2||1||G||I-Form Big||2||2||1||Base 3-4||Run||Power off tackle||Toussaint||1|
|Actually blocked pretty well but just too many guys in the area. The safety who would normally be way downfield is at the LOS. Toussaint isn't big enough to plow him into the end zone. This is such a wad of bodies I hesitate to give anything out. No one seems to do anything wrong or exceptional. I guess Lewan gets a point for being the main thing that created the room down to the one.|
|Same play as the 4th and 1 and they get it. Again it seems like Lewan is the main reason, as he is playside of a tackle slanting into the gap and gets enough of him. But he also kind of gets annihilated. I'll abstain here.|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-7, 14 min 2nd Q.|
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||RB||TE||WR||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|M21||1||10||Shotgun 3-wide||1||1||3||Base 4-3||Pass||TE Out||Koger||5|
|Meh gain that looks like a bad read. Slot is running the same pattern farther outside except the corner over there is being run off by a fly route. He could turn it up; Koger just gets chopped down by a linebacker. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, though Schofield had a little trouble.)|
|M26||2||5||Shotgun 3-wide||1||1||3||Base 4-3||Run||QB lead draw||Robinson||2|
|Gets past the first level snappily as Schofield(+1) kicks out the playside DT. Omameh does okay with his guy but can't prevent him from getting playside when he starts giving ground. Still, he's through the hole. Molk contacts the MLB near the LOS and this spooks Robinson(-1) into the backside of the play, where the blocking is thin on the ground. It doesn't help that Hemingway(-1) was torn between two different guys and ends up blocking no one. The corner comes up hard; Denard jumps over him and looks like he just... might... fall over for two yards.|
|RUN+: Schofield||RUN-: Robinson, Hemingway|
|M28||3||3||Shotgun 3-wide||1||1||3||3-3-5 Nickel||Pass||TE Fly||Koger||Inc|
|WMU rushes four and gets stoned; Molk is driven back by a blitzer and then starts blowing that LB downfield. Robinson has a ton of time. He sees Koger breaking open downfield and decides to take a shot; the pass is long. Koger had good position on a DB but was step-for-step with him. Also it's third and three and you're Denard Robinson: run. (IN, 0, protection 3/3)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 11 min 2nd Q|
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||RB||TE||WR||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|M26||1||10||Shotgun 2TE Twins||1||2||2||Base 4-4||Run||Pin and pull zone||Shaw||-1|
|This does not work at all. The idea is to pin a couple guys with down blocks and pull more and then have the RB work it out as he goes; nothing works here. Koger(-1), Omameh(-1), and Lewan(-1) get beaten on their down blocks. Huyge misses a hard-charging corner but that wouldn't be a problem if anyone else had made a block. Shaw(+1) manages to dodge that guy and a six-yard loss. Molk(-1) then runs by the guys flowing down the line before thinking better of it, giving him no cutback against the charging corner. This was a crapfest.|
|RUN+: Shaw||RUN-: Molk, Lewan, Koger(2), Omameh|
|This is a well-blocked play that gets held down because WMU is running cover zero and by the time Shaw crosses the LOS the FS is four yards away from him and charging. RPS -1. Molk and Omameh(+1 each) destroy a DT; Lewan and Schofield(+1 each) both kick out DL. McColgan kind of misses but not too badly; Shaw is one on one with a safety for a TD, but unfortunately this battle is going down three yards past the LOS.|
|RUN+: Molk, Omameh, Schofield, Lewan||RUN-:|
|M30||3||6||Shotgun 3-wide||1||1||3||3-3-5 Nickel||Pass||Deep Hitch||Gallon||13|
|WMU sends five and gets picked up pretty well. WMU corner bails out early and Gallon cuts his route off; Denard zings it to him. Ball is a bit outside and upfield but nothing too bad; could argue he's keeping it away from defenders. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)|
|M43||1||10||I-Form Big||2||2||1||Base 4-4||Pass||PA TE Cross||Moore||Inc (8 Pen)|
|Play action with a pulling guard suckers Western. Denard pulls up and floats one to Moore at about the sticks; he's tripped just as the ball gets there. On replay this looks like a pretty tough catch. (MA, N/A, protection 2/2)|
|O49||1||10||I-Form Big Unbalanced||2||2||1||Base 3-4||Run||Power off tackle||Smith||7|
|Moore at “RT”; Huyge on the left inside of Lewan. Huyge(+1)blocks the playside DE off the ball; Lewan(+1) gets a linebacker; McColgan(+2) blasts a linebacker back into a teammate, leaving no one for Omameh to block; Smith follows the blocks.|
|RUN+: Lewan, Huyge, McColgan(2)||RUN-:|
|Pitch and catch as a linebacker who might be able to cover this zooms into a flat with no one in it. Zone opens up. Denard zings it considerably behind Roundtree, who makes a tough spinning catch just as he's lit up. (MA, 1, protection 2/2)|
|O32||1||10||Shotgun trips||1||0||4||Base 3-4||Run||Zone read dive||Toussaint||10|
|Molk(+1) clubs the NT out of the hole. Lewan(+1) gets his helmet across the backside DE and then blocks him with his back; there's the crease. Toussaint(+1) hits it, then gets into the chest of a guy Schofield was trying to block, running through him for six yards.|
|RUN+: Lewan, Molk(2), Toussaint||RUN-:|
|Schofield(-2) smoked in pass pro, but the guy misses Robinson, and then another guy sort of inexplicably hits the ground. Missing Robinson means you are in trouble and he takes off on a weaving, darting run. By my count he slips three tackles and turns a six yard loss into a first down. (SCR, N/A, protection -2, Schofield)|
|O10||1||G||I-Form||2||1||2||Base 4-4||Run||Quick pitch||Shaw||5 + 2 pen|
|I kind of hate this play since it depends on suckering an unblocked guy or having your RB make a great play. Here WMU blitzes off the edge, suckering by default, and the CB is still totally unblocked. Huyge(+1) does a great job of sealing the playside LB; Roundtree(-2) runs at the same guy, leaving the corner to charge up unmolested. Shaw(+2) jukes him , gets five yards, and then gets hit OOB.|
|RUN+: Shaw(2), Huyge||RUN-: Roundtree(2)|
|O2||1||G||I-Form Big||2||2||1||Base 4-4||Run||Iso||Toussaint||2|
|Nothing on the frontside; Toussaint sees this and cuts behind Koger(+1), who's driving down-the-line block opened up a cutback lane.|
|RUN+: Toussaint, Koger||RUN-:|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown(blocked XP), 20-7, 1:50 2nd Q|
|Miss the play because of technical difficulties.|
|We come back just in time to see a scrambling Robinson nearly throw a pick in the direction of Moore. (BR, 0, protection ??)|
|M45||3||6||Shotgun 4-wide||1||0||4||3-3-5 Nickel||Pass||Slant||Roundtree||Inc|
|Well defended; pass thrown in front of Roundtree anyway. Mitigating factor: it is now raining like mad. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, special commendation to Smith for a blitz pickup)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 20-10, 14 min 3rd Q|
|M13||1||10||Shotgun 4-wide||1||0||4||Nickel 4-3||Run||Zone read dive||Toussaint||43|
|For the first time all game that's not a passing down WMU removes a linebacker from the box and places him over the receivers. The WMU DE has to form up on the zone read; Huyge(+1) gets the MLB and Omameh(+1) shoves the NT well past the play; he slanted playside when Michigan stepped to a zone. Big cutback lane that Toussaint(+1) hits fast enough that he's by the last LB despite his angle not giving Molk an opportunity to block him. I guess that's RPS +2 if only because this was easy.|
|RUN+: Huyge, Omameh, Toussaint||RUN-:|
|O44||1||10||Shotgun 4-wide||1||0||4||Nickel 4-3||Pass||PA seam||Dileo||Inc|
|Zone read dive fake sucks up both linebackers and one safety, leaving Dileo open for six; Denard throws it well behind him. (IN, 1, protection 1/1, RPS +3|
|O44||2||10||Shotgun trips TE||1||1||3||Nickel 4-3||Run||Zone read dive||Shaw||44|
|This may be what was supposed to happen on the previous play, with both LBs hitting the backside hole after the line slants playside. Problem: two blockers there. Schofield(+2) and Lewan(+2) annihilate the linebackers; the DE is held outside by Robinson. Then the umpire(+2) picks off the safety. Good job ump. Shaw just has to run straight upfield. I guess that's +1? Also RPS+2? This is why the zone read is powerful. On both these plays it erased the DE, giving a numerical advantage.|
|RUN+: Schofield(2), Lewan(2), Shaw, Umpire(2)||RUN-:|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown, 34-10, 6 min 3rd Q|
|M25||1||10||I-Form||2||1||2||Base 4-3||Pass||PA post||Hemingway||37|
|Hemingway comes in motion inside and Michigan runs play action, pulling(!) the backside guard as if this is power. This sucks in both linebackers and one safety, who is five yards rom the LOS in a flash. Oops. Denard sets up and has Hemingway free on a post one on one with a corner. Denard puts it up. The ball is a bit short but I'd rather it's a little short and you give up five yards than missing long here; Hemingway posts up and brings it in. (CA, 2, protection 2/2, RPS+2)|
|O38||1||10||Shotgun trips TE||1||1||3||Nickel 4-3||Run||Zone read dive||Toussaint||3|
|WMU has flipped their formation and manages not to give up 40 yards on this. Michigan gets confused as to what they should do, as Omameh(-0.5) and Huyge(-0.5) end up doubling a DT without trying to scoop him and end up leaving the MLB unblocked. Toussaint(+1) swiftly cuts behind that block and gets out of that gap. WMU did run a scrape here; Huyge has pulled off to take on the crashing DE. The scraper read the handoff and is in position to tackle at the LOS. Here the ZR did not option off a defender. RPS -1|
|RUN+: Toussaint||RUN-: Omameh, Huyge|
|O35||2||7||Ace twin TE||1||2||2||Base 4-3||Run||Power off tackle||Toussaint||11|
|WMU slants under the down-block from Schofield(-1) to get a DT into the backfield; he delays the pulling Omameh. Koger(+1) is a lead blocker and bangs a linebacker who's sucked too far inside. The slant plus that equals just a morass of bodies; Toussaint(+2) bounces out like whoah, breaking contain and dodging a safety for good yardage. Lewan(+1) clubbed a linebacker to the ground as well.|
|RUN+: Toussaint(2), Koger, Lewan||RUN-: Schofield|
|O24||1||10||Shotgun twin TE||1||2||2||Base 4-4-||Run||QB power off tackle||Robinson||2|
|Cover zero in a driving rain storm means this run is overwhelmed and it's tough to block everyone. Charting this is pointless.|
|Drive Notes: EOG, 34-10.|
Well, Mr. Fear of MANBALL, don't you feel silly?
Um, well… I'm not sure yet. We had five and a half drives against a MAC team, some of which were in a pouring storm. The jury is still out. As far as the blocking schemes go… I have to admit I'm a little worried. After years of noting that Molk can get his helmet across damn near anyone if tasked with a reach block, he wasn't asked to try it once against Western. The play at the beginning I thought was a stretch was actually a Down G, which they did run last year. All this interior blocking minimizes the advantage Molk possesses that seems likely to get a relative shrimp like Molk a job in the NFL.
For the record, Michigan's run breakdown:
There were also four short yardage plays. Two were dives from a two TE ace formation with Toussaint lined up three yards from the LOS, a third was an iso out of an I-Form Big, and the last was a power from the same formation. The dives/iso got first downs or TDs; the power got a yard on first and goal from the two. These aren't included in the YPC numbers I'll be tracking since they'll unfairly ding under center carries that are successful if they get a yard.
Shotgun carries averaged 10.6 YPC. From under center they averaged 6.8. Zone/gap was split about evenly but there was no outside zone. Obviously these are massive sample sizes that should be taken with deathly seriousness.
SAY IT YOU SILLY PERSON
Hoke uber alles?
Indeed. Tell us about our sumptuous quarterback who is the awesomest.
Uh… he kind of sucked.
LIES UNLESS THERE'S A CHART ALSO PROBABLY EVEN IF THERE IS ONE YOU LYING CHARTMONGER CHART
Chart. I'll throw in last year for comparison:
|2009, All Of It||1||7||6(2)||3(1)||4||4||-||-||?||44%|
This is also a huge sample size not acquired in the process of herding animals into an ark and must be taken seriously.
But… yeah, when people were saying Robinson was a disappointment they were not wrong. That's his worst downfield day since he was a confused freshman and frankly some of those MAs could have been INs. I mean, Dileo touchdown easy biff sad. He didn't do much on the ground other than use his speed on the first play from scrimmage and dance around on that one scramble. In addition, two of those non-bad throws were bad reads where he had a better option. The weird nature of the game obviates a lot of that but if Denard does not go all Denard on Notre Dame there are going to be some nervous people around here.
I don't think much of it can be ascribed to operating from under center since he was missing plenty even when it was dry and he was operating from the shotgun. The throws he was asked to make didn't seem much different than what he was doing last year, but it's possible some of the inaccuracy was a timing issue. Saturday will be the first real test.
YOU SON OF A—
How about some more charts?
Receivers follow; I'll refrain from duplicating the first game totals. You can figure it out:
Very little to go on when there are 13 attempts but for what little action they got they did superbly, bailing out Robinson on two occasions and helping twice with no drops.
Finally, you can see the effect of the change in run offense on Molk's numbers:
|Omameh||4.5||2.5||2||Lot of pulling; bear with me as I adapt to the new style.|
|Huyge||4.5||2.5||2||All right, as per usual.|
|Schofield||8||2||6||Good debut; did get smoked on the Denard scramble.|
|Moore||-||-||-||Did some blocking but didn't register good or bad.|
|TOTAL||34.5||11||22.5||Solid; running does seem considerably left-handed.|
|Robinson||4||1||3||Most of this on the scramble.|
|Toussaint||8.5||0.5||8||I like him. May be a little exuberant though.|
|Shaw||4||-||4||Half of this on the quick pitch, another point for running fast on TD|
|Smith||-||-||-||Third down back my patootie.|
|McColgan||2||-||-||One slamming block.|
|TOTAL||18.5||1.5||17||We'll see if this holds up with more sample size.|
|TOTAL||0||4||-4||Not a good day on the outside. Held down a couple runs.|
That's a lot of plusses, but the numbers say they're warranted as Michigan ripped off 7.3 YPC and would have threatened 250 yards rushing if the game had been completed. Rushing is not a concern yet. Notre Dame looms.
Little enthusiastic about Toussaint there, aren't' you?
I admit that when the number came up I was like "oh, someone wants a good running back this year and has corrupted himself to get it." This was pretty sweet, though:
That bounce is super-quick and correct. Toussaint showed good vision all day and that is 11 yards from nothing.
Lewan was the best of the OL, Toussaint had a good debut, and the receivers as a unit were near flawless.
Er, Denard? Please don't pelt me with radioactive socks.
What does it mean for Notre Dame and beyond?
Man, I ain't extrapolating much from a few plays run in blistering heat or a driving rainstorm against a MAC opponent that got outscored by Michigan's defense. I think we'll see a multiple offense that leans on the shotgun in crunch time; I think Toussaint is for real and will be a B+ starter this year; I seriously hope they're not just going to shelve the stretch all year.
Against better teams I think the only way they get that safety in the box is by using Denard as that extra guy in the run game—the two long ones this week were zone reads where WMU did not scrape, providing Michigan a numerical advantage. Let's say it a third time: next week will be the test.
I believe it is "downfield success rate."
Downfield success rate.
Where are Denard's points for smiling, huh?
First of all, thank god UFR is back. The emptiness inside, it is somewhat less gaping than it was.
In terms of Denard's performance, I dunno ... the one thing that jumped out at me was calling the out to Gallon a CA+ - that was a pure timing route to a dwarf receiver who did not have to break stride to catch the ball. If that ain't a DO, Denard's going to be in for some rough charting this season.
I think perhaps the chart tends to reward QBs operating in the type of offense Denard was in last year - very simple reads, quite often downfield for large gains. While your method does take progressions and game management into account to some extent, it's mostly on the negative side of the ledger - a catastrophic or nearly so decision becomes a BR.
Anyway, my overall sense was that he had some kinks but that he looked much more comfortable back there. I'd be super happy if he can mix in Dilithium with the sense that we have a QB who understands the offense (which would be a sensation no one has felt since Henne's senior year.)
I think the game is still moving a little too fast for Denard, especially when he is under center The only cure known to mankind for this is repetition in games. Once he realizes his physical skills will buy him extra time and give him the opportunity to survey the field,he is going to be an impossible nightmare for DC's.
The Denard we see against ND is not going to be nearly as good or proficient as the Denard we see against OSU and Nebraska. As for 2012...Lookout Crimson Tide
He looked more comfortable in passing situations than he did last year, where if the primary read wasn't open things got terrifying in a hurry. But there's definitely some progress, and you're right - he might be a full on sea-creature horror show next year.
For those of us who are newer... Can we get an explanation for what some of the abbreviations stand for? I couldn't figure out RPS, or the majority of the abbreviations in that first chart (stuff like DO, CA, IN, BR, DSR, etc). Thanks in advance.
RPS stands for 'Rock, Paper, Scissors' and denotes if the play was doomed from the start given the play called on the opposite side, or the other way around.
But they did. And it's because they too damned generous with the football.
Jesus! 3 INTs and 2 fumbles. On top of it all, 2 missed FGs by David Ruffer (Whaaa?) and a horrid 34 yards per punt avg. I'm not confident an Alabama or an Oklahoma could overcome that kind of carelessness.
Plus that ND PK Ruffer was ridiculous in past seasons: 5 for 5 (42 long) in 2009 and 18 of 19 (50 long) last year. C'mon.
ND defense played fairly well holding USF to 250 yards total offense, but forced zero turnovers.
I don't expect ND's turnoveritis to continue vs. Michigan.
If Kelly were wise, he'd just zone it with TB Cierre Wood. He had almost 100 yards, 1 TD and 4.7 YPC, mixed in with some z-patterns to Michael Floyd.
Team unprepared. It's why Kelly blew his stack and it was a self-indictment. SF did nothing new; there were few surprises. Whether the Irish will get things together by Saturday, what with the way game management played out versus SF, remains to be seen but early lethargy has been a pattern of the Irish over the past several years. I hope the trend continues.
This makes me feel as though he overlooked USF a little with us sitting there right behind them.
New(ish?) rating system seems to favor OTs over OG / C, no? Is there anything that could equilibrate? Or were Western's DTs that much better than DEs/LBs the OTs were dealing with?
Know that Molk has had some more positive days for his reach blocking abilities in the past, but if that isn't a part of the system any longer, it seems like it will be tough for interior O-linemen to grab high scores. They also might be more prone to taking negatives given the nature of their positions & potentially increased complexity of interior DL/LB interaction?
I'm probably reading too much into too little, but maybe we could figure out a way to equilibrate expectations in terms of magnitude of scores for different OL positions like is typically noted between some of the defensive spots. Could it be that a +2 is as good a day for an interior lineman as a +6/7 is for an OT? Just throwing it out there. (Or maybe I missed the explanation, and if so, my apologies.)
DISCLAIMER: I do not mean to imply in any way that I am unimpressed with the awesomeness of Lewan's donkey-stomping abilities, just not sure that Schofield merited that much higher of a score than the interior guys.
It didn't last year; the grading favored Molk, mostly. Omameh when he was suffered to get to the second level.
It does depend on the playcalls. On a power to the left side the line Huyge would have to do something extrarordinary for me to even notice him. Last year the RT was last in absolute magnitude of points because M tended to run away from him. I think that will be the case this year as well.
Molk's hurt by power because his job is to block down on the backside DT, which big whoop. If he really crushes him he might get a point. When he's reaching, though, he can really rack 'em up.
Thanks for clarification. My interpretation was obviously a bit jumbled there, so I derp'd on the Schofield comparison (just have him as a tackle in my mind despite the formation notation & reality of the game ahead of UFR).
Seems like the real driver will be direction of play calls, which should rightly inflate the scores of the stronger members of the line.
he's naturally more of a tackle. If the right side of the line isn't great for example and most plays go left then Barnum and Lewan will most likely be highly negative or highly positive. The right side in the scenario wouldn't probably score much at all unless there was some second level madness or they were just completely destroyed. I don't think the UFR over a season will be necessarily baised because of this because if the play side tends to be to one sides it's probably for a damn good reason. As for Molk, even if he was monster gap blocker as a center I'm not sure if UFR would reward him or not because I haven't really seen that since UFR has been around.
I was clearly a little mixed up in my analysis there... thanks for adding to the clarification.
I was waiting all day for that. FWIW, I'm with you on the Denard score. I have a feeling we are going to miss those 20 carries per game.
Ps. My comment box is not moving on the phone ap, so ican not see what I'm typing
Who's to say Denard won't get 20 carries down the road? Denard took a beating last year. When they've got a game like WMU when the rb's are running effectively, why have Denard take a pounding when it's not needded? Also, from reading the coaches press coferences it sounded like Borges wanted to try a bunch of different plays out.
does not decide wins and loses. Denard played well, made good decisions, distributed the ball effectively and made a few good scrambles. I'm happy with how he played. I couldn't care less if he has 200 yards rushing a game if we win.
you mean other than the ball he threw directly at a defender? He had eight carries and 13 throws and should have turned it over once. Extrapolate that to last year's workload and that's your -3 TO margin right here.
He didn't have any turnovers. Its almost like you guys are obsessed with Denard and the idea that MANball sucks instead of the team winning. Personally I'd rather see the team win.
The FACT is that he had no turnovers...correct. The POINT is that, against better teams, he probably will if he replicates those throws. Got nothing to do with MANBALL...bad throws are bad throws. He had 13 attempts...a couple bad throws, a few iffy ones. That's about 5 out of 13. You can get away with it against WMU, but Brian's looking at the overall picture. And for the first game, it didn't look too good.
Also can't help but think that, more times than not, Koger just tips that ball and puts it up for grabs on the overthrow by Denard. Coverage is going to be tighter in the big ten, and those other couple balls thrown behind the receiver give better defenders a chance to make a play on the ball. Not impressed with the passing game this past weekend, hope the timing gets better this weekend...
Think about it this way: if Denard was a RB last year and did what he did, and hypothetically a new coaching staff arrived and decided to emphasis the pass and by design, have the RB's and Denard run less, would you miss his big games even if we won? I would, because by design you are taking the most dynamic player in college football and utilizing his talents less. If we have to choose, we all swould choose a victory over 200 yards from Denard, of course. But we don't have to choose between those things. If we go 12-0 and Denard runs for 500 yards this whole season, I for one will be disappointed--because I know I would have missed the potential of seeing him do something fantastic--and those two things are not mutually exclusive. In fact one makes the other more likely.
are you more interested in Denard's individual accomplishment's rather than the teams accomplishments?
2nd to last play: Lewan does not club a LB. The TE just outside him does. Lewan took on a DE. I've watched that clip at least ten times to make sure. Unless Lewan was lined up as a TE.
Whatever Denard lacked in offensive awesomeness was made up for in:
Man I love these! Totally didn't notice while watching the game that on that 43 yard run Fitz had from deep in our territory, that basically the reason he got that is he hit the hole hard.... otherwise the MLB would've gotten him because the MLB was unblocked.
A couple questions:
- Am I correct that the difference between "down G" and "power" is that on power, the guard from the backside of the play pulls around, and on down G it's the guard on the playside that pulls?
- Also, what do the column headings on the Hennechart stand for? I don't remember all of them. I know Catchable, Marginal, Incomplete, but can't remember the rest of them. (EDIT: Nevermind, just saw it posted above)
- Finally, am I correct that we didn't see ANY of that play-action we saw so much last year where Denard would take a few steps forward like he's gonna run, then pull up and hit the slot (usually Roundtree) up the seam? That was a sweet play and really effective. Hopefully we didn't abandon that and are just saving it for ND.
I don't know if it was the exact same play, but Denard definitely took a step or two toward the LOS before throwing on a couple of pass plays.
Can freeze a defense by pump-faking a toss. Denard can fix Ds with a step or two and even a hip move or foot forward. He can buy another fraction of a second like no other. Twelfth man advantage is real.
On the Toussaint TD that put us up 20-7, I got a chuckle at Hemingway doing his Lewan impersonation on the DB at the top of the screen.
Yeah I noticed that too and was going to post it. Also on that play, Molk pushes a defender almost through the back of the end zone. Not sure it impacted the play, but it was great to see those guys bashing donkeys.
We all knew the offensive UFR was going to be boring. Bring on the defense UFR.
Some posters here seem to think that if we just don't turn the ball over we can just back our way into wins.
Denard didn't throw a pick until game 3 last year so we haven't excactly broken new ground by him making it through 3 quarters without turning it over.
Against WMU we might have the luxury of staying pretty vanilla but this team is going to have to put the pedal to the metal if they're going to beat any sort of quality opponent.
but I think that was the point (I hope it was anyway) of keeping things simple this week. I think this staff knows, whether they like it or not, that they are going to have to outscore teams to win at the start of the season. I think down the road the defense will progress to a point where they will help us out, but probably until at least the midway point in the season, this team is going to have to put up a lot of points against the quality teams. I think they intentionally didn't show much in the last game so they wouldn't give ND much to plan for. Again, I guess that is a hope more than anything else.
I for one wasn't disappointed in Denard's performance at all. First game of the season, he wasn't being asked to do everything, and there was no rythym established in our offense due to the defensive production and weather related issues.
"Some posters here seem to think that if we just don't turn the ball over we can just back our way into wins. "
I think a majority of these post also had comments regarding his improvements in the pocket and his decision making . I didnt read anywhere or get the impression that if we dont turn the ball over we are going to win everytime. Last time I checked Denard had two interceptions agains Illionis and two against Purdue and we won both of those games.
As someone new to the blog, I enjoy the UFR reviews, but I think we all need to be fair and acknowledge this was the first 3 quarters of the year, under a new system. The team reacted well, however WMU is over and its time to prepare for ND. I think we have the right staff that will continue to develop to team and make smart in game adjustments when needed.
Michigan's defense will be better and agressive as stated by Mattison. The offense is still largely unknown to the Irish and will put enough points on the board to win.
Fine Review from UFR as always!
I would be interested in a chart looking at Denard's performance during the first half, when conditions were relatively dry versus the second half (quarter), when conditions were decidedly wetter. Perhaps it would be worthwhile diving that second half into two periods, one before the first lightening delay and the second afterwards - granted, the numbers are small, but Denard seemed to be more inaccurate during the wet conditions.
I will nitpick about one video - where you attempt to demonstrate a run by Toussaint for 11 yards, but it actually shows WMU offensive play for several yards againsts Michigan's defense. You can find the correct video further up the page, but it would be nice if you could fix it.
He completed 9 of 13 passes, averaged a nice chunk of yardage per carry, didn't turn the ball over and we won by 24 pts in 3 quarters.
He was only "disappointing" in the sense that we didn't NEED him to account for 500 yards against a MAC team.
Is there going to be a ZR stat this year? Because in this game, DRob should have gotten a +1 maybe even a +2 on Fitz's long run. On that play, he makes his run fake convincing enough to suck in two guys on the left side of the WMU defense. The LB that Huyge blocks pretty much runs himself out of the play. Up until Fitz's last run, I wasn't impressed. He got little on his own for most of the day and his ypc without that long run was less than 4.
Looking vaguely senior-year-Chris-Perry good!
It says in the formation notes that Michigan used an unbalanced line once but we did it twice actually. On that second to last play, where Toussaint reads that the gap is closed and kicks it outside for a gain of 11, Michigan also used an unbalanced line.
Once...twice... I know it's not a big difference. Just wanted it to be graded correctly.
What does the number in the bracket mean in the QB chart? For example, under CA it says 14(2). What is the 2 in reference to?
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