Unverified Voracity Wins The Thing We Can Comment Count

Brian

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On my signal, unleash dollars. It is time for the annual EDSBS charity drive. This is your opportunity to annoy other college football fanbases by giving more money than they do, thus preserving the cycle of college football life:

  1. Michigan doesn't do too well in football
  2. LOL Michigan
  3. Michigan wins EDSBS charity drive
  4. Who does Michigan think they are
  5. repeat

This year Spencer promises a full road trip to the winner, and since LSU-Florida is the same day as Michigan's only decent home game that means we can get him to see The Horror II. Sounds like a deal, man. I'll give him my ticket, even.

Suggested donations this year include $114 (TFLs allowed), $43.42 (fairyland score of OSU game), $13.73 (Jeremy Gallon receiving yards), and $–48 (rushing yards against MSU). Because self-trolling or Gallon appreciation is the appropriate response to last year.

As always, all donations go to the Refugee Resettlement Services of Atlanta, which does very important work for refugees. Give here.

Play the right way, just not quite as right as Michigan. SMU and Michigan have agreed to a two-year home-and-home officially, with the home game coming immediately and the return next year. SMU barely missed the NCAA tournament last year thanks in large part to a miserable nonconference schedule but did go 12-6 in the AAC. After their snub they ran to the NIT final, where they lost to Minnesota.

They lose a middling shooting guard and a decent four from their lineup; they add a Very Big Deal in TX PG Emmanuel Mudiay, the guy who decided to play for Larry Brown instead of Kentucky, which may have been a deciding factor for Devin Booker. Now Michigan has its chance for revenge(!). They're probably a tourney team, and since they're playing in a newly Louisville-deprived AAC they're likely to have a shiny record. It's a smart move for RPI purposes and hey-look-a-home-game purposes.

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Khalil Mack didn't play in the MAC because he thought it had a cool name

Sometimes unexpected things happen. These days it seems like everyone recognizes that the recruiting rankings dog-and-pony show is borne out as useful by the NFL draft. This is not necessarily the best thing in the world. There are a lot of differences between college and the NFL and when the main metric is what the NFL thinks, rankings can start answering a different question than "which college football teams are most likely to be successful in the near future?"

But it's still football and close enough. So when someone objects to the recruiting service folks pointing out that there's a pretty steep slope from five stars to two stars, they should have a good reason. Husker Mike's attempt from Corn Nation:

….what's a bigger surprise is that only four of the NFL's top 32 picks were considered in the top 30 coming out of high school. What's more, three of the NFL's top 32 picks were players that the services didn't feel could contribute at the BCS level.  In other words, the number of complete misses (two star recruits that went in the first round) were about the same as the rankings they actually got right (five star, first round recruits).

The question is not whether recruiting services are perfect but whether they are making something approximating the best guess that can be offered when these kids sign. The three guys the services didn't feel could contribute at the BCS level were Khalil Mack, Jimmie Ward, and Darqueze Dennard. Mack went to Buffalo, Ward Northern Illinois, and Dennard MSU. They had literally one BCS offer between them, and Dennard's was a chance thing:

He entered the final game of his senior year of high school with zero scholarship offers and dim collegiate prospects. … More than a month before Dennard's regular-season finale at Twiggs County High, Middle Tennessee State pulled his only college scholarship offer. … State assistant coach Dave Warner had no idea who Dennard was before kickoff, but he kept seeing Twiggs County's uniform number 3 making plays all over the field.

There were 200-ish opportunities for BCS coaches to offer any of these guys. One of those came to fruition. Nobody should look askance on recruiting services for not picking these guys out. Literally no one except MSU assistant Dave Warner did.

And that goes to my point. Talent is hard for the professionals to evaluate.  The professionals in the NFL have a tough time with evaluating, as Matt McGuire's 2010 study of the NFL draft showed.  It's tough for college head coaches, who's careers depend on it.  So it shouldn't be a surprise that the part-time amateurs who analyze it for the services don't get it right either.  No matter how hard they protest and proclaim their own importance.

That is not a point that anyone disputes, and picking out random anecdotes…

I mean, when a school whose recruiting rankings from 2009 through 2012 were ranked 77th, 48th, 29th, and 42nd lands three first round draft picks in the 2014 NFL Draft, you realize that coaching and development is as important, if not more important, than the raw talent.

…when the greater picture is clear is almost as pointless as complaining about posts like this.

Well, just pay attention. The ACC is set to join the SEC as conferences that play just eight conference games despite having a ludicrous number of teams. They're also leaning towards the mandatory actual nonconference game to prevent the most shameless bowl-scraping schedules.

This has implications for playoff selection, as does the fact the Big 12 does not have a championship game. And it's fine, as long as the football committee just replicates Matt Hinton's process for voting*, I don't care how many conference games other conferences play. That process is feeling out who teams have actually beaten versus who they've lost to; football is never going to be something that cleans itself up into neat buckets but the upside of having a committee is the ability to look beyond simple win-loss treadmilling. We'll see if they take advantage or not.

*[ED: SMQB seems to be down, unfortunately.]

Measuring on the LeVert scale. Michigan signed Aubrey Dawkins and duly sent out its press release about it. Usually these things are just boilerplate but this one has an interesting note on Dawkins's size:

"We feel very fortunate to have Aubrey join our basketball program," Beilein said in a statement. "He is very athletic, long, a full 6-6, and has a tremendous upside. We love his passion and diligence for skill development and know he possesses great understanding of the game of basketball. We anticipate his versatility as a player will prove valuable on our team."

Dawkins is coming in with two 6'8" guys who can play the 4, so that probably doesn't open up a new position for him but it is nice to continue getting those 6'6" guys who can shoot over zones and maybe play them.

Do want. 2016 NV PG Derryck Thornton has a naaaaasty crossover:

Are you an angel of the apocalypse girl because every time I see you you're surrounded by people clutching their extremities and weeping.

(HT: UMHoops.)

Quick hoops recruiting bits. 2015 WI SG Brevin Pritzl visits; no offer yet. Michigan moves on 2015 SG Dejounte Murray. Michigan's 2014 class now ranked 15th by Scout.

2016 OH SF Seth Towns gets the big in-depth visit; he is likely to get a June 15 offer. We've pulled the trigger on a 247 Crystal Ball prediction for Towns.

Etc.: Devin Funchess projected as a first rounder on highly reliable mock drafts that are highly reliable.

Comments

alum96

May 12th, 2014 at 4:57 PM ^

Umm.... Myles Tuner vs Donnal and Doyle?  Better get your big boy pants on guys. 

The PG matchup should be fascinating, super "1 and done" freshman vs Walton Jr.

white_pony_rocks

May 12th, 2014 at 5:18 PM ^

I couldn't care less about the draft in terms of comparing where a player got drafted with how good they were in college.  Look at Michael Sam and Jackson Jeffcoat, they were great college players, which is more important that being ok college players who translate to the NFL.

GoBlueNorthside

May 12th, 2014 at 5:46 PM ^

"….what's a bigger surprise is that only four of the NFL's top 32 picks were considered in the top 30 coming out of high school. What's more, three of the NFL's top 32 picks were players that the services didn't feel could contribute at the BCS level.  In other words, the number of complete misses (two star recruits that went in the first round) were about the same as the rankings they actually got right (five star, first round recruits)."

Maybe I don't know how to statistics, but 4/30 making the top-32 versus 3/1000's making the top-32 seems like a big difference. Would you rather recruit someone that has a 13% chance of being a 1st round draft pick or a person with < 0.3% chance?

aplatypus

May 13th, 2014 at 10:36 AM ^

the person who wrote that article is kind of an idiot who doesn't understand sample sizes. 

I used to try to explain this to people in defense of recruiting servers when Michigan had its ESPN board with TomVH. 

Whether you consider 10-15% accuracy on first round grades to be good overall is a somewhat valid question, but arguing with the success of 5 v 4 v 3 v 2 stars is futile when you consider the sampel sizes and that they're just meant to be good guesses to begin with.

alum96

May 12th, 2014 at 5:57 PM ^

I hope Mr. Towns can find another growth spurt in him.  Reading back to his recruiting trips he has been 6'7 since last summer as a freshman... cmon son, let's find another 1.5-2 inches inches somewhere in next 2 years.  6'9 SF with sick jumper - do dream.

gwkrlghl

May 12th, 2014 at 7:10 PM ^

I had to try really hard to stifle my laughter after reading this so my family wouldn't think I was crazy:

 

Are you an angel of the apocalypse girl because every time I see you you're surrounded by people clutching their extremities and weeping.

ThadMattasagoblin

May 12th, 2014 at 7:19 PM ^

I don't think recruiting rankings are incredibly accurate, but I'd definitely rather have a 5 star than a 2 or 3 star. Sure a 2 star can rise up and be a first round pick but there are a lot more that play like 2 stars.

El Jeffe

May 13th, 2014 at 8:22 AM ^

As much as I admire that crossover and as much as I'd love the chance of having Derryck Thornton learn from Derrick Walton, I don't really see how his game translates that well to Beilein's system, at least from the few tapes I've seen. Beilein doesn't run much point guard iso, and the tapes don't show him running the p & r much if at all.

So, I'm agnostic. That said, I have confidence that Beilein knows what he is doing and also that he could mold Thornton's game to fit what he wants to do while capitalizing on Thornton's skills. 

So I guess what I am saying is that I'll allow this recruitment to continue.

Hail-Storm

May 13th, 2014 at 11:18 AM ^

however, my understanding of basketball is somewhat limited.  Yes he does not appear to run the pick and roll like morris or Stauskus, but from my understanding, he appears to have a game more similar to Burke's, where there was a lot of slash to the basket and dish.  Stauskus and Lavert, also appeared to do this a lot.  This seems to be a solid alternate to the P&R when you don't have a dominate big that can isolation plays down low. 

He just looks like he could be  agreat distributer for the offensive weapons Beilein tends to pick up.

Gulogulo37

May 13th, 2014 at 11:15 AM ^

The other ridiculous thing about the college to NFL debate is that the NFL draft isn't always right either. It's like the author is criticizing college coaches and scouts without realizing there will be draft busts and surprises as well. Presumably. I don't actually care to read the linked article.

Michigan4Life

May 13th, 2014 at 11:22 AM ^

is he only played football for one year at High School (played basketball before it) and was an All-Stater in Florida yet no Florida schools took a look at him because he came into the scene so late.  Buffalo was the only Division 1 to offer him a scholarship and the rest was history for Mack.  It helps that his dynamite performance against OSU has gave him a big notice by the NFL scouts who already considered him a 1st rounder, but it pushes him into the top 5-10 talks.