Unverified Voracity Upholds Lazy Tradition Comment Count

Brian

A BYE WEEK TRADITION. UFRs Thursday and Friday on a bye week.

Compliance with the Dennis Norfleet Atomic Dog act of 2560.

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I'M A BONAFIDE ATTENDER

At least let people prove they're bonafide. Michigan oversold basketball season tickets again. This time the sheer extent is lesser, as they've only sold 3250 tickets for 3000 seats instead of the 4500 last year, but they've again announced the rules after the tickets were bought… and you wonder if last year's policy reduced the number of people willing to buy this year. It's not like the team outlook is a whole lot different—Michigan was not expected to rampage through the Big Ten a year ago and looked a lot like a bubble team early.

Changes:

IMPROVEMENTS FOR 2014-15 INCLUDE:

Fewer claim periods (only three vs. six last season)

Missed claimed game penalties will only affect the ability to claim in the 3rd and final claim period (vs. penalties in each claim period last season)

Students will have the ability to return up to three (3) claimed games up to 24 hours before a game to account for last minute plans (not available last season)
Electronic tracking of scanned tickets for confirmation of attendance (not available last season)

I get that attendance is an issue; this is all stick, no carrot, though. There's a core of attendees who were at every game last year. They should get to just have normal tickets since they've proved their bonafides.

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OSU is facing a ton of cover zero. They are rushing for 4.9 YPC anyway.

Well… more time isn't going to fix things. Not that you need convincing of this but here are the boggling numbers Ohio State is putting up minus Braxton Miller:

Ohio State ranks second in the Big Ten and 12th nationally in total offense at 523.6 yards per game. The Buckeyes' 44.6 points per game are second in the Big Ten and fifth in the country. And redshirt freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett ranks third in all of college football in passing efficiency.

And that's with the one-off collapse against Virginia Tech when Bud Foster reached deep into the playbook to bring out Buddy Ryan's old bear fronts. Opponents are trying to replicate that success weekly now, and Ohio State has adapted quickly.

OSU's line is mostly new and a bit more experienced than Michigan's, but it's the smallest possible gap. Michigan has two fourth year players, two third year players, and a freshman for a total of 10 years already on campus. OSU is at 11. They've only got one senior. Meanwhile, their backfield consists of all second year players: JT Barrett, Ezekiel Elliott, Dontre Wilson, and Jalin Marshall are all sophomores or redshirt freshmen.

If you know what you're doing you can put together some killer offenses without piles of experience these days; the coaching gap between Michigan and Ohio State is vast.

Upcoming quarterbacks. Nate Sudfeld is out for the year for Indiana, which is a huge blow for them after both Cam Coffman and Tre Roberson left the program this summer. Indiana went from one of the most solid situations in the league to auditioning true freshmen they hoped to redshirt. Unless they catch lightning in a bottle that's looking like a win. Indiana's defense is so permeable even Michigan will go up and down the field on them. Iowa scored consecutive 60-plus-yard TDs. I mean.

Northwestern is also having some issues with Trevor Siemian:

Siemian went down against Northern Illinois and needed to be taken out of the game without putting any pressure on his leg. It turns out it was an ankle injury. It was clear that if there was a game the next week, he would not have played. He healed during the bye week, and although he was not 100 percent, he played against Western Illinois.

It appeared the injury was improving, but this week, Siemian was limping at times, and he had a massive ball of tape on his ankles.

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Northwestern's policy is that Pat Fitzgerald will not discuss injuries in-depth. He will get as specific as "upper body" or "lower body."

Maryland has CJ Brown back after a wrist injury, FWIW.

Redshirts? Michigan won't talk injuries but a lot of people are reading bad things into this statement from Hoke's teleconference yesterday:

With five games remaining for the Wolverines (3-4 overall, 1-2 Big Ten), Hoke was asked if it is time to consider looking at a redshirt for Peppers.

"We would handle that when the time would come," Hoke said.

I'm not sure how he's supposed to answer that question with the usual level of vagueness without implying that a medical redshirt is possible, so I don't read too much into that. I have heard that the injury is severe enough that it's certainly on the table. How much does that mean if Peppers is still likely to be a three-and-out guy? Maybe not much.

Meanwhile, Desmond Morgan is also eligible for a medical redshirt if he does not return and that was broached:

"I don't think there's any difference (between Morgan and Peppers), it just depends on how guys progress," Hoke said. "Us not doing anything or doing something with (Morgan), yeah (we could)."

Is there a cutoff point you have to get to in order to make that decision?

"I think we're kind of by it, in some way," Hoke said. "I didn't say (he'd miss the season), (but) I think there's a lot of possibilities."

That would make sense, as Michigan's not doing anything this year and Morgan might prefer another crack at being a senior… especially if he thinks he's got a shot at the NFL.

The Orsoning. He came, he saw, he cackled madly like he was Walter White in Crawl Space while looking almost exactly like Walter White in Crawl Space, and he writes about it:

The normal Michigan crankiness involves the complaints that all fanbases spanning a wide age range involve: that they do not run the ball enough, that the stadium speakers play music too loudly and too frequently now, that someone's knees stick into your back in the cramped stands, even with the rows of empty seats visible here and there. We don't run the ball enough. Bo, sainted Bo Schembechler, would never, ever have let a team not run the ball like this.

Those are normal complaints, the kind of ideological complaints any fanbase has in variation. See "Any older portion of the fanbase wondering why they're playing hip-hop where there are children," or "Team raised on fierce offense and naked aggression gets saddled with a dullard defensive coach." That might be me talking about Florida, because it is. The point is that every fanbase is unhappy in its own unique key. When Alabama fans are unhappy, it is because a linebacker has just missed a tackle or because someone has unleashed the horror of a passing touchdown on them. When Michigan is unhappy, it is cold, someone is edging onto your seat cushion, and someone has just done something deeply unSchembechler-ish.

The abnormal grievances, the ones indicative of a real theological schism in the church of Michigan, come from the older gentleman standing up when Michigan takes a timeout -- with one second left on the clock in the first half and Penn State leaving for the locker rooms -- and yelling:

"HOKE! YOU IDIOTTTTTTTT!"

Grievances of that severity can't hide.

He did not mention a guy at Marlin Jackson's Go Blue Bowl tailgate asking Roy Roundtree to do his Donald Duck impression, but he got everything else.

Etc.: Orson talks Ann Arbor at about the ten minute mark in the latest Shutdown Fullcast. Everything is dappled, he says. Will Leitch on how Todd Gurley may as well GTFO without taking more hits before he can get paid.

Comments

Ron Utah

October 15th, 2014 at 3:49 PM ^

Should we be considering this guy for our CC?  The way he used the double-eagle front against Ohio State was awesome.  That was an RPS win, for sure.

carlos spicywiener

October 15th, 2014 at 3:57 PM ^

Another galling thing about Ohio's offensive staff as opposed to Michigan's. Over there, instead of bashing the QB for having "a lack of fire" or "not playing with heart" they robotically plug in Player X and watch him produce, while adjusting playcalling to his strengths.

Erik_in_Dayton

October 15th, 2014 at 4:00 PM ^

I was talking about Herman with my OSU friend this weekend.  He apparently recruits well and is loved by his players in addition to being a great Xs and Os guy.  Michigan could do worse than hiring him, IMHO. 

turd ferguson

October 15th, 2014 at 5:45 PM ^

I think he's more intriguing that any other coordinator I've seen mentioned.  He's supposedly a top candidate for the SMU job right now (along with Chad Morris), and I'm sure his name will come up for other openings soon.  He might not be ready for a head coaching job as high-profile as ours yet, but he's definitely a guy for whom Michigan should do its homework.

Tim Waymen

October 15th, 2014 at 5:10 PM ^

I'm liking the idea of hiring him even more. It's possible that Michigan is too big time for a coordinator's first HC job, but many of the top HCs in the game right now were coordinators not 5 years ago, although circumstances vary. Hell, OU was Bob Stoops's first (and only, thus far) HC job after DCing. There's tremendous upside in trying. Seriously, if we can't get Jim Harbaugh, and we likely won't, looking at a coordinator, specifically OC, is the way to go.

matty blue

October 15th, 2014 at 4:12 PM ^

i have to say that i don't think about nfl prospects for our guys all that much, but morgan seems to me like david harris:  not as supremely talented as some other guys, but a smart player and a major thumper.  what nfl team can't use someone like that?

ALSO, i am one of the premier bitchers about the piped-in RAWK music...that dennis norfleet requested, got, and grooved to piped-in 'atomic dog' makes me a) happy as hell and b) a little less strident about it.  these kids today and their rocks and rolls, i guess it ain't all bad.

jmblue

October 15th, 2014 at 4:47 PM ^

Orson loves to slip in the Woe-is-me-as-a-Florida-fan bit in his articles, but I just can't feel too bad for a school that has won two national titles in football and two more in basketball over the past decade (and they've won a third national title in football within the past 20 years).  

 

 

 

MichAero

October 15th, 2014 at 5:11 PM ^

OSU has faced the 49th, 69th, 88th, 108th, and 122nd ranked teams by Opponents yards per play. Those aren't exactly stout defenses they are doing it to.

Sure, those numbers are partially inflated by having faced OSU. And they do deserve credit for doing what they have done with everything they have lost. Meyer is a great offensive mind, and he knows how to use the talent he has, that's for sure.

For reference, we have faced the 7th, 16th, 19th, 36th, 72nd, 84th, and 127th ranked teams using the same metric.

Our offense is by no means good, and we don't have someone willing to use the talent available to their strengths, but we have faced much better defenses than OSU thus far.

PS: I would be leary of teaching already bad defenses a new scheme for just one game. I don't know much about how the Bear defense works, but if you take a team who can't play defense anyways and take a week to cram in a new defense, it doesn't seem like much good could happen.

MichAero

October 15th, 2014 at 6:03 PM ^

I mentioned that in my post, but that is true. Some teams it affects more than others, but for the most part OSU has performed about where others have, with a few games being better and one being worse.

Maryland gave up 7.46 YPP to Syracuse and 6.43 to WV, while giving up 6.92 to OSU.

Cincinnati gave up 10.35(!!) YPP to Miami (YTM), 6.87 to Toledo, and 7.03 to OSU.

It will be interesting to see how that changes throughout the year though.

turd ferguson

October 15th, 2014 at 6:56 PM ^

Sorry, I don't know how I missed that line.

If you're into the Offensive FEI stat, which is opponent-adjusted, OSU is currently #29.  So that's not quite as lofty a ranking as the total offense statistic that was reported by Eleven Warriors suggests.  On the other hand, it's still pretty damn good, and I'd imagine that a lot of damage was done in the VA Tech game, when OSU had a reasonable excuse for why they struggled (Braxton injury + Bud Foster smarts).

GoBucks11

October 15th, 2014 at 6:39 PM ^

I don't think YPP is a very telling stat when it comes to defenses. In that same metric, Houston's and Kentucky's defenses are ranked in the top ten. However, both are ranked  70th and 62nd, respectivley, in S&P+, which is a much better indicator of defensive performance (takes into account success rate, PPP, and SOS of opposing offenses w/o "garbage time"). By S&P+, OSU's opponents ranked 6th, 43rd, 63rd, 103rd, and 115th nationally. Still some garbage teams, but also some decent defenses with one great one. Michigan by that metric has faced the 13th, 18th, 22nd, 45th, 58th, 91st, and 128th. So, Michigan, on the average, has played better defenses. Again, both of these revelations have the same caveat of OSU's offense beating up on the defenses they face, and Michigan making (most) of the defenses they face look like the Steel Curtain. So, I guess I'm saying the same thing as you, but just saying the metric you used is not necessarily the best for determining defensive success.

sharks

October 15th, 2014 at 9:28 PM ^

that the Buckeye o-line is among the least experienced in the country, so not sure it is "a bit more experienced than Michigan's"...

I can't verify this, think I read it on 11w weeks ago.  Point is they've done pretty well with 80% of the line being brand new.

GoBucks11

October 16th, 2014 at 3:31 AM ^

I think you actually might be referring to an Unverified Voracity post, which included a link to a post on barkingcarnival.com. One of the comments included used number of collective starts for an offensive line (x-axis) compared to offensive success using S&P (y-axis). Michigan had 12 collective starts before the season. Ohio State had 15, 14 of them were Taylor Decker (Pat Elflein started the B1G championship game instead Marcus Hall). So both had to see a lot of new faces, but Ohio State has at least one really experienced guy on the line. And from the graph in the link, there doesn't seem to be much of a trend when it comes to offensive success and the experience of the offensive line (don't know why they put the nike swoosh on the graph. Endorsements? Texans are weird). 

Mgodiscgolfer

October 16th, 2014 at 12:32 PM ^

It made me want to rip my eyes out. There is absolutely no excuse for there to be a vast coaching difference between any school much less OSU. Coaching should be one of the strengths of UM football not a weakness.