Unverified Voracity Threw A Ball Over Rashan Gary Once
Harbaugh as Uncle Rico. He's the least Uncle Rico person of all time, except in his mind:
Like Uncle Rico, back in '86, I could throw a pigskin a quarter mile #timemachine #throwback pic.twitter.com/lohiLUtdsH
— Coach Harbaugh (@CoachJim4UM) July 24, 2016
Now can you see the strong family resemblance? #UncleRico pic.twitter.com/s0hJFFGAJa
— Coach Harbaugh (@CoachJim4UM) July 25, 2016
No, not really. Maybe if we…
— Noah Neidlinger (@candor_for_sale) July 25, 2016
There we go.
WE ARE KIND OF EXCITED. Take it from a man selling a preseason magazine: Michigan fans are throwing their money at the upcoming season because they have an enthusiasm too rare over the past ten years. News that more bets are being placed on Michigan to win the national title than any other team should be interpreted in that light.
PFF evaluates that take, mostly rehashing things they've published before—Wormley, Glasgow, Hurst, and Charlton are all real good, literally everyone in the secondary graded out positively—but offering some new insights into their 2015 rankings:
They are bringing back a solid receiving corps led by WR Jehu Chesson (who earned the third-highest WR rating among returning wideouts at 127.9) and TE Jake Butt (who is the top returning tight end in receiving grade, after catching 51 of 70 targets for 653 yards and three touchdowns). They have a productive running back in De’Veon Smith, who broke 52 tackles combined last season.
There's been a lot of NFL and All Big Ten hype around Chesson, a guy who came on late but didn't exactly put up Braylon numbers; that helps confirm the late season surge. (Also Florida UFR is this week, and Chesson was insanely good in that game even if you look past the two long strikes against Hargreaves.) Butt being the top receiving WR is no surprise; Smith being "productive" kind of is.
Also, Jake Rudock surge:
Jake Rudock came on strong at the end of 2015, but for the first nine weeks of the season, he ranked 98th among 101 qualifying quarterbacks in PFF grades – and the Wolverines were still a top-10 team entering the final week of the regular season.
If Rudock had transferred fast enough to get in for spring practice that would have been something.
Still gets no respect. BTN put out a list of the top 100 players in the league that's mostly notable for their bonkers #takes on various players, like definition-of-just-a-guy Justin Jackson at #11. Jackson is Northwestern running back on a team with some sort of sea mammal trying to use his flippers to get the ball downfield, so his carry numbers are inflated. He got the ball a whopping 312 times last year, and was fine. He did nothing to defy Northwestern's fate against Michigan, Iowa, and Nebraska—25, 30, and 40 yards, respectively—and mostly ran over teams that were not good. He had a couple moments; he was fine. He got to 139 yards against Wisconsin without cracking 4 YPC. You could put him somewhere in the second half of this list if you wanted; 11 is bizarre.
But the reason this section exists is because the list completely omits Ryan Glasgow. Ryan Glasgow, the guy who got hurt just before Michigan's run defense fell off a cliff; Ryan Glasgow, the guy PFF ranked a top 20 DL in all of college football last year. No matter what he does on the field, because he is 1) a former walk-on and 2) a nose tackle someone is always willing to ignore him in favor of Bryan Mone or a completely average running back. Or #32 Montae Nicholson a guy who got pulled over and over again last year because he kept giving up big plays. Or #60 Wes Lunt. Or #100 Michael Geiger, a kicker hitting 63% the last two years. There's an obvious mandate to diversify the schools involved here but that's nonsensical.
Anyway. Get your chips hot, Glasgow.
The media days, they begin. If news comes out of them that'll be newsworthy. Best item so far is that MSU appears to be moving Kodi Kieler to center:
MSU also released a preseason depth chart: Kieler now listed as starter at center, Brian Allen at LG, Dennis Finley/Miguel Machado at RT
— Kyle Austin (@kylebaustin) July 25, 2016
I said there wasn't much news. JUCO transfer Machado was real bad last year as Kieler struggled to stay ambulatory; Finley was hurt the whole year.
Dytarious may return. Dytarious Johnson didn't sign a letter of intent this fall and then enrolled in prep school; per Johnson Michigan is still in pursuit and will enroll him this January. That's still dependent on a number of things, including Johnson getting his grades right and how Michigan's scholarship situation shapes up. A lot of these plans end up changing along the way.
More unit rankings. Sports On Earth declares Michigan's DL the third-best in the land and their secondary fifth-best, and if that actually strikes you as pessimistic, well, placing the OL #5 in the country more than makes up for that.
Etc.: Iowa defensive tackle Faith Ekakitie had four guns pulled on him because he was mistaken for a bank robber 100 pounds lighter than him. Peppers gets a prestigious award. Eric Upchurch talks MGoPhotography with MGoFish. Remembering 1976.
Not only has Smith been a whipping boy for far too long, but it's time to consider him on the level with Perry, Hart, Minor and other celebrated Michigan backs in recent history. The production hasn't been there statistically (yet), but his skills and play say Smith is indeed "beefier Mike Hart".
A version of Mike Hart saddled with a crap OL, inconsistent QB play, and 3 OCs in 3 years. If Hart was here now, it would seem likely his vision would be questioned too.
"RB is usually a spot where you have it or you don't," That's what Brian said in last year's preview and I think that's true. Smith has it. He's always had it. Smith generates yards the same way Hart does, by turning would-be-tacklers into failures.
This year, assuming health and Newsome rounding into form, Smith will finally get a legitimate opportunity to produce. When he looks like an excellent player (like he did against Florida, BYU, and Northwestern) and gets all-conference recognition, I suggest doubters forgo the "improved vision" rationalizing and heap the praise instead on Drevno for at-long-damn-last giving Michigan an OL that offers serviceable run-blocking.
This is a truly impressive amoungt of wrongness in two comments. Your "pile" of evidence:
Harbaugh considers Smith an entrenched starter and has nothing but glowing priase for him.
Entrenched starter, yes. He's a senior. He said even more positive things about Isaac. It is also talk.
Nobody has produced better than Smith in meaningful situations, including several 5-star recruits (Isaac, Green, even Peppers. Compare Isaac's production at USC with his production against any Top 100 defense while at UM.)
Absurd to cite Green in any situation other than incredibly overrated players. Meanwhile Drake Johnson rushed for 5 YPC to Smith's 4.2 last year. Houma was 4.4. Isaac 6.8. Peppers 4.0. Collectively, those guys combine to average 5.0 YPC on barely fewer carries than Smith got.
Advanced stats indicate it's the OL that is to blame for the run game struggles (not the RBs).
"Advanced stats" in these categories are nothing more than handwaving attempts to turn play by play into something meaningful. They're better than nothing, but far worse than evaluations that actually grade individual plays.
The NFL still has little interest in Michigan's 3 returning senior starters on the OL. When was that ever true of guys with this many starts under their belts?
That's yet to be determined; Glasgow was not on the radar at this time and was a third round pick. Meanwhile Cole graded as one of the best run blockers in the country last year. The other guys weren't great but they were mostly okay. Many solid college OL don't get drafted high. Last year's line was okay, not great.
True freshman OL have played, every year. Position changes have happened, every offseason. Michigan's recent OL personnel is high turnover, low talent, and learning-as-they-go.
There were no freshmen on last year's line; position switching is going to happen every year on most teams.
Multiple RBs floundered behind Brady Hoke OLs and went on to look quite good on other teams. [Wheatley didn't fix this, indicating the always-dubious Fred Jackson theory was bunk. The OL is the simpler answer.]
I thought there was nothing to fix? If Smith's vision is awesome and it's all the OL's fault then the Fred Jackson thing holds water.
Believe PFF, Harbaugh, and logic. For a board that likes to cite Occam's razor you'd think Smith-doubting would be behind us.
I know you like to think you're a contrarian genius but your aguments are almost always in this vein of nebulous handwaving at people who actually do the work.
Harbaugh generally does not sugar coat much with the media. His Smith praise seems authentic, and is supported by the spring bubble wrapping. The praise for Isaac seems authentic too, but the context here is improvement (relative to last year's benching).
YPC is a funtion of situation. Backups have an inherent advantage of getting easier carries (against UNLV/Oregon State caliber opponents or 2nd stringers). Smith got most of the hard carries. When you compare Isaac or Johnson in tough situations samples are limited, but their YPC was not better. Peppers' was (at PSU, OSU) - but that's Jabrill Peppers, Even his YPC was unimpressive in that setting (3.8 and 4.1 ypc). If someone as talented as Jabril Peppers can barely crack 4.0 ypc you know something is wrong.
While I agree that advanced stats are far from perfect, there seems to be some conflicting grades of individual plays (IRT the OL and Smith). We know Michigan does this too. PFF and Harbaugh seem to think Smith's individual play grades are pretty good.
Newsome played meaningful downs on the OL last year. That's a sign of desperation.
I'm not claiming to be a genius or disavow anyone's body of work. You have my respect as an analyst. I'm picking at one specific theory because it doesn't make sense. If Smith's vision was so horrible, Michigan would have used someone else. If Smith was the problem, other backs (of which there have been many) would do better. If the OL wasn't the problem, the NFL backs that predated Smith would have been successful at Michigan. If Fred Jackson was the problem Wheatley would have fixed it. etc.
I want to thank Belkin, makers of the Belkin WaveRest Keyboard Wrist Support, which just saved my forehead from being split open by repeated impacts with my desk.
Thank you Belkin.
...to re-watch every play from every game. It's well-documented around here that Smith's vision has been an issue. He's especially prone to missing the backside cut inside zone (like this), and even his best runs have often featured him missing the inital hole (famously on the long TD against BYU, also on this Indiana run).
Also, I've noticed many of the same things Brian has about your comments, so I feel compelled to point this out: Grant Newsome played some snaps as a sixth OL (giant TE) last year. He didn't play "significant snaps" as an offensive tackle.
The Smith theory makes sense because we've literally seen him miss holes with our very own eyes on too many occasions to dismiss. To suggest otherwise is to ignore quite a bit of evidence.
2010: Adj. Line Yards Rk = 2
http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/2011/6/9/2215018/2011-michigan-wo…
"The line was good-to-great, depending on how much you feel Robinson was responsible for their strong Adj. Line Yards and Adj. Sack Rate totals."
2011: Adj. Line Yards Rk = 19
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2012-michigan-wolverines-footbal…
3 starters returned, now under Borges. Michigan still top 20 in most run game stats.
2012: Adj. Line Yards Rk = 70, Opportunity Rate Rk = 81
http://www.sbnation.com/2013/7/24/4540806/michigan-wolverines-football-…
Molk and Huyge depart. "The Wolverines were great in short-yardage situations but struggled mightily when it comes to keeping defenders out of the backfield."
2013: Adj. Line Yards Rk = 118, Opportunity Rate Rk = 111
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/2/18/5421808/college-football-201…
Only 2 tackles return. "Ranking 118th in Adj. Line Yards, 111th in opportunity rate, 120th in power success rate, 126th in stuff rate, 112th in Adj. Sack Rate. Michigan's 2013 line stats were mind-blowing. With an All-American at left tackle (Taylor Lewan) and four- and five-stars filling nearly every spot, Michigan put together one of the worst line performances you'll ever see."
2014: Adj. Line Yards Rk = 50*, Opportunity Rate Rk = 55
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/5/29/8676637/michigan-foo…
"The line started with just 34 career starts but improved to 50th in Adj. Line Yards and 72nd in Adj. Sack Rate. Considering the level of recruiting, this isn't great, but you can only improve so much in one year."
*Still ranked in the 90s on standard downs.
2015: Adj. Line Yards Rk = 53, Opportunity Rate Rk = 107
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-michigan-advanced-statistic…
Line yards held firm from 2014, but opportunity rate plumments back to 2013 level. Scheme change hindered returning starters?
This is not some thing I decided to go out and make up. The data says the OL stinks at run blocking. It may not be definitive proof, but when it matches coaching changes, scheme changes, and personnel issues it makes sense right?
Does it make more sense than all of our RBs stink because Fred Jackson, vision, other? Brian's even said (paraphrasing) that backs are who they are. Fred Jackson never coached Ty Isaac, but he didn't produce anything at Michigan. Deveon Smith didn't get way better under Wheatley. Our backs all look mediocre because the run blocking hasn't been good.
The timeline of run game production correlates with OL and regime/scheme changes far more than RB personnel.
The vision argument/analysis is particularly subjective and highly debatable. I know Smith missed holes, perhaps even more than his share. However, I suspect most RB miss holes. They just aren't subjected to the level of scrutiny. Not to mention Smith and the other backs have probably learned a level of distrust in the OL that would submarine their 'instincts'.
Point taken on Newsome, but I would think we can agree it's still a concern whenever a true freshman linemen has to play (considering even Long and Lewan didn't).
You're all missing the point here.
The point is.... we're all getting a FLORIDA UFR. Your arguments are invalid because UFR.
The OL has been a problem every year since 2012. Every offseason there's been a different rationale for why it will get better (Omameh garduated!, Nussmeir simplified the Offense!, Drevno to save the day). The pass-blocking has been shored up unquestionably, but the run blocking is still awful. This is largely understandable given the changes in scheme and coaching.
It is not Fred Jackson's fault that Fitz Toussaint's YPC between 2011 and 2013 went from 5.6, 4.0, to 3.5. That coincides with the OL decline/personnel issues.
Your point about NFL interest is probably valid. It's premature to say there won't be any for the 3 seniors. Braden in particular has upside. Sometimes players make leaps their senior year.
For West Wing reference.
I made a comment a couple of days ago about Magnus running arguments into the ground, but I think you might actually be worse than him. You just had 3 staff basically tear apart your argument and you're still going.
It is hilarious though when you and Magnus get into it.
I have stamina.
Gotta say I think Lan has a point. Not that De'Veon doesn't miss holes. That's a fair point too.
Obviously the run game woes are a result of multiple factors. But I think it's reasonable to point out that the OL has been very bad, and that this has been true through changes in coaches, coordinators, and RBs. It does seem to me that, all things considered, it's likely that the OL shares more of the blame than our RBs.
I say "likely" because without being inside the program, we can't know, right? That's one of the limitations of Brian doing the UFR. He's not at practice, not in the meetings, so he can't know what the play was designed to do. For various reasons, it may end up looking very different on the field under fire, making an accurate UFR reading impossible. (Not a knock on UFR, it's super, just pointing out that everything has its limits.) The way Harbaugh talked about Smith and Isaac in the 15 minute interview today - and didn't even mention anyone else - makes me think that Harbaugh is sincere in his praise of Smith.
I agree with this. If I was being more diplomatic I would probably phrase my point as "lets consider an alternative hypothesis for a second" instead of STOP YOUR OPINION NOW tone.
Brian is very influential, and has earned it. I think he's usually right - but not always. I wonder how many people would be criticizing Smith's vision if Brian hadn't raised the issue. No one would own up to it, but I have my doubts. I know Brian influences how I look at UM football and I'm sure I'm not alone.
I think the UFR's are an excellent datapoint but there is room for other information. Maybe it's "hand waving" but advanced stats and the actions of coaches are interesting too. I think there is room to have a discussion in situations where these things don't generate the same narrative (e.g., Boldin over Gedeon or Ross, Godin over Hurst or Charlton, Stribling over Clark, Smith over Green, Isaac, and Johnson). I certainly don't think UFR should be taken as unquestionable fact because hard work.
Different takes should be welcomed, even if they are framed with a little heat.
He may be able to throw a football over them mountains, But Rex kwon-do will block it every time.
De'Veon is getting all of the RB metion this offseason but I think Ty Isaac will have a breakout year. He looked really good this Spring and maybe has his head on right. The physical tools are certainly there for him to be a star.
Which I am fine with.
Butt being the top receiving WR is no surprise
Well, count me gobsmacked.
On where some of the guys are ranked, I agree that leaving Glasgow out is bad. Wes Lunt at #60 in a league without a lot of known QBs isn't terrible, Lunt is far from the issues in the Illinois offense (his OL was awful and therefore they had zero run game; his best WR is hurt again this season). He's not a great QB, he's fairly average. Average QBs always get ranked around there in these sorts of things.
Nicholson did play a hell of a lot better the last few games. FWIW, I called the issue about him taking awful angles during last summer, and he mostly got away with it as a FR (not always) but started getting burned his second season. But his athletic talent has always been top notch. If the mental game clicks or continues steady improvement from the end of last year, he isn't ranked all that bad.
Gieger shouldn't be on the list, that is terrible.
Jackson I don't really have a issue with. The guy doesn't have a great average, but his OL was bottom half of the conference last year quite easily, his QB has potential but was a RS Freshman with clear limitations last year. Their offense as a whole was pretty below par, and he's put up back-to-back 1000 yard games in that offense. At worst, he's shown great durability. Maybe he's not #11, but keeping him out of the top 25 would look bad to the majority of fan bases when they cross check with his stats in that offense. You also have to look at it from that perspective for the BTN. They have to appease fans, and putting Jackson at #11 to almost anyone isn't even close to the worst ranking on that list.
As far as the MSU OL, I know they tried Kieler out at Center during the spring, but this is a surprise to me. I thought McGowen actually looked better than the younger Allen at Center last year, and was solid in that spot. Kieler is a solid RT that got destroyed against Bama and Michigan (extent of injury may have aided that a little, but he still got destroyed). My guess is that for whatever reason he's struggling to generate much push in the run game, so they want him at Center where he gets help from the guards, but I'm surprised with him at Center. But productive 6'6" centers are few and far between. Machado battling with Finley (who looked significantly better in the limited snaps he got before injury) doesn't bode well for Finley's health. I do think RT is a better home for Finley long term. Beedle player LT means he's either improved a ton or MSU has some major concerns at LT as well. Beedle was recruited by MSU as a DT/OG prospect, and he always reminded me of Dan France - a guy that could flex out at OT and it didn't spell disaster, but he was somewhat limited and looked much better as an interior player. I guess we'll see.
Every poster on this site is aware of how good he is, but I think, except for M followers and the professional analysts, his contribution has been overlooked so dramatically that the average fan, even in this conference, is not aware of the importance he played on the defense last seaason. I was happy to see you remind everyone of this.
It's a position that gets overlooked so damn easily, and i can't understand why. There is a wonderful article on the top of the page about Mike Reinhold. It demonstrates the heart it takes to play that position and how, despite how much talent you have, it's not going to be done well unless you have the heart to accept every challenge. In that case there was a lber who had to make up his mind, under the most adverse conditions one can imagine, whether he was going to be a former lber or a NG. I think that, more than any other aspect of his game, is what makes Glasgow the best in the conference at his position.
In watching the replay last night, I was shocked that Huard or his co-host - thinking it was Huard because it spoke of football knowledge - made the viewers aware of how tough it is to play defense when going up against one of the conferenc's best runners minus "your best DL" I really can't recall anyone not associated with the program mentioning that FACT.
Good job with the entire piece, Brian, but glad you took the time to add this.
Glasgow is an excellent player (per our eyes, Brian's UFRs, and PFF) but his departure looked so bad because so many others fell away first.
The Minnesota game was pretty awful for our D and it came with Glasgow fully healthy. Godin, Ojemudia, Mone were all down for this one. We used an undersized LB on the DL (Ross) and we couldn't rotate fresh bodies. Godin being gone from the interior DL stung here too. While he did return late in the year, he was never the same.
This is why I have a hard time blaming the late season collapse on Durkin - losing 4 starting-caliber DL is nearly impossible for any team to deal with. Glasgow is clearly an excellent player, but Harbaugh seemed to confirm the buzz that Mone was pushing him and Ojemudia and Godin were starters on the early season DL that dominated everyone they faced.
want to give that guy more reason to prove himself? by all means, bring it on.
good god, this season can't come soon enough.
What if Brian titled draftageddon as "Florida UFR" just for kicks?
Edit: damn you, flexing biceps edition.
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