Unverified Voracity Is Tested Regularly Comment Count

Brian

Not literally a comic book. 28 minutes of Charles Woodson highlights from high school do not quite feature him bounding over a tall building:

 

Full go minus one decision. John Beilein doesn't see anyone transferring this offseason:

"Everybody seems to be all onboard 100 percent," Beilein said Monday after attending a USBWA Final Four luncheon honoring freshman Austin Hatch. "Obviously, we're not with them 24 hours a day, but I love their attitude right now."

That does not include Caris LeVert, who is deciding on the NBA draft. It seems that people around the program are cautiously optimistic he will stay for his senior year, but we won't have certainty until the early entry deadline, April 26th.

That would leave Michigan with zero scholarships this year and two plus any attrition after next season in 2016. Unless Hatch goes on a medical scholarship that would cut out Mike Edwards, the various transfers looking at Michigan, and Jaylen Brown.

In related news, it looks like Max Bielfeldt will spend his grad transfer year at Bradley.

Meanwhile, another one bites the dust at Indiana. The Hoosiers get a commitment from prep post Thomas Bryant, bringing the number of Indiana players guaranteed to get run off this offseason to three. Someone please fire Tom Crean.

Spike surgery. Spike Albrecht will have surgery on both hips to eliminate the pain he played through this season. His projected return is in four or five months, which cuts him out of all the summer stuff but should have him back on the court a couple months before the season. That should be enough time to knock off the rust.

Soon, a fully healthy Spike will also be dunking on fools.

Out go the successories posters. Harbaugh on the weight room:

"It was shiny, like somebody from Chicago came in [from a ] P.R. firm," Harbaugh said. ""This isn't a slide show.

"This is work."

Don't get a DUI and then fail your probation. Harbaugh on Glasgow:

"The legal system has got as much hanging over his head as anybody else could possibly put on him," Harbaugh said. "There's nothing more that I, or the football program or the university could have on Graham right now than what (the courts) have.

"This is somebody who is taking a breathalyzer every morning and every night. He's got to be clean, 100 percent clean, not a drop of alcohol. And he'll either do it, or he won't. I believe in him, I believe he will. But we'll all know, there will be no secrets on that. Whether he does it or he doesn't, it'll be for public consumption."

He will have to do this through January, so he will either be clean as a whistle or you'll know he wasn't.

This is a lovely shot chart. Aubrey Dawkins did two things last year:

dawkins[1]

Threes and throwdowns. He was excellent at the threes, average at the throwdowns, which still means he was extremely efficient. Next year's project is getting some of those hexagons to be larger without changing their distribution. Oh, and doing the defense and rebounding stuff.

Okay, let's do it. Kenpom looks at the effect the 30-second shot clock (and expanded no-charge circle) had on the tournaments that used it:

Adjusting for the matchups and expected points in each game, scoring in the smaller tournaments has been about 5.6 ppg more than the NCAA tournament. This is 2.4 ppg higher than the typical difference in these events. That's not something that will transform the game, but if you assume that boost applies to the entire 2015-16 season, it would take the sport to scoring levels not seen since 2003. (That statement excludes last season, when scoring increased dramatically, partly because a bunch of fouls were called.)

Pace

Not surprisingly, most of the scoring increase can be attributed to an increase in pace. Accounting for the teams involved and the increase in tempo normally seen in lower-level events, there have been two additional possessions per 40 minutes than we'd expect under normal rules. This is a more modest change compared to scoring and only turns the clock back to 2011 in terms of pace. This suggests simply reducing the shot clock to 30 won't produce significantly more up-and-down basketball. A surprising finding here is that slow-paced teams were affected as much as fast-paced teams were.

Efficiency

One of the concerns of the 30-second clock is that it may make offenses less efficient, but the postseason experiment isn't providing much evidence of that. Accounting for the quality of the teams and the usual increase in efficiency seen in the lower-level events, efficiency was actually up, though by a miniscule 0.6 points per 100 possessions.

The efficiency thing is almost certainly noise, but it looks like any effects are going to be minimal in that department. I don't think there's much wrong with college basketball other than the fact that block/charge is impossible to call and the refs are hilariously bad in general—but that's not something you can wave a wand and fix.

Final CSS rankings out. Minor movement for most players. Zach Werenski is 9th, down from 6th. Kyle Connor moves up a spot to 13th. 2016 recruit Cooper Marody moves up ten spots to 53rd. There were some more significant moves:

  • NTDP forward Brendan Warren dropped from 34th to 66th, which is an early third round pick to the fifth or sixth. He had an okay year only with the U18s.
  • Incoming defenders Joe Cecconi and Nick Boka went in opposite directions; Cecconi dropped from 70 to 88 and Boka shot up from 176 to 117.

Given Michigan's needs next year I'm happy that Boka's stock has apparently surged, even if Warren is less of a prospect than you think he might be. I wonder if Michigan will try to bring Marody or another 2016 recruit in now given Copp's departure.

The Hockey Writers have an extensive breakdown of Werenski that compares him to Trouba. I know I'm seeing Werenski a year younger, but he is not Trouba. Trouba was a commanding defenseman at both ends of the ice. Werenski really came on in the offensive zone late in the year but was a significant source of defensive problems.

Etc.: 1914 All-American ring for "Maully," which is either John Maulbetsch's nickname or a cartoon hammer. Bacari Alexander is up for the UW-Green Bay job, which is a pretty good mid-major posting. Various OMG Harbaugh stories on spring from ESPN, MLive, MVictors, etc.

Sports "donations" are still tax-deductible. Alabama assistant salaries have gone up 60% in four years(!). Michigan's are probably in the same range.

Comments

GoBlueGB

April 8th, 2015 at 12:51 PM ^

Mr. Alexander please dont go to UWGB.  I spent two years there, and I have no idea how you convince any recruit to come to that school.  The school is literally in the middle of no where surrounded by farm fields and forrest.  It was a pretty boring two years. 

Sac Fly

April 8th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^

The honest truth is, Warren hasn't been a dominating primary scorer since Compuware. He puts up decent numbers but doesn't create anything.

The ranking services tended to overrate him because he has all of the physical tools, but everyone kept waiting for him to put it all together and it never happened.

He'll be a really good secondary scoring option like Tyler Motte, but not a focal point of the offense like scouts hoped.

gwkrlghl

April 9th, 2015 at 12:16 AM ^

Boo always strikes me as the prototypical "has all the tools but just can't put it all together" guy. It sounded like Warren was heading there too from your assessment.

I've never heard anything negative about Boo's work ethic FWIW

boliver46

April 8th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^

Trying to look up high school stats - but my "claim to fame" in High School is being part of a defense that surrendered a school record 300+ yards to Mr. Woodson on the ground.  I believe he was a sophomore at the time.

Caveat: I only played Goal-line defense :)

Good times.

 

***EDIT*** Best I can do...http://michigan-football.com/s/1991/grtlakes.htm

Fremont vs. Sylvania Northview

I'm watching this whole thing to see if I can add to my CSB!

 

 

archrival

April 8th, 2015 at 1:57 PM ^

I have a spreadsheet I created back in the day using newspaper box scores, not exactly scientifc, but I'll see if I can dig it up.

Oregon Clay his senior year was his best individual performance. He was amazing in the playoff game against Massillon but it just wasn't enough to win the game.

BrownJuggernaut

April 8th, 2015 at 1:54 PM ^

That Werenski-Trouba comparison is terrible. They're trying to pigeon hole an argument that makes no sense for their own convenience. Honestly, if we're going to compare Werenski to a recent former Michigan defenseman, I'd go with Merrill. Werenski is a lot more of a finesse guy who does well on the PP. I think Merrill had a better stick in the defensive zone as a freshman.

CoachBP6

April 8th, 2015 at 2:01 PM ^

I personally know Thomas Bryand and his brother whom I worked with. They are both from Rochester, NY. The kid is a beast!! That said I can't believe he chose Indiana. Last time he was up here we were shooting the breeze and I told him to go to Michigan just because. He told me he was interested in Syracuse, Florida, IU, and Kansas. I specifically told him that Crean was a dick who overigned every year and forced players to transfer. I remember him specifically saying he would "look into it". Obviosly Crean sold him on something, likely tradition, bc Thomas wanted to go to a historical basketball school, but I am surprised I was IU. They are getting one of the best Big Men in the game from Huntington Prep. Fuck you Tom Crean you scumbag.

Everyone Murders

April 8th, 2015 at 2:29 PM ^

The first item in the Etc. section is worth a click - in addition to the ring, it has a photo of the congratulatory letter to Maulbetsch from Fielding Yost.  The Yost letter contains the phrase "Michigan men" to describe those affiliated with the football team, which is the earliest I've seen that phrase used in conjunction with Michigan Athletics.

... I feel sure that all Michigan men are elated at your selection

That's right - the term is over 100 years old.

pappawolv

April 8th, 2015 at 3:30 PM ^

Barwis had a couple of things on the wall but I'm guessing this change was because of the last office holder?  Never saw it (from the inside) in recent years.  Like the change and approach.

Mr. Yost

April 8th, 2015 at 6:02 PM ^

But we need to find some room for Brown if he wants to come. Hell, if Donnal wants to transfer to Bradley too so we can make room for Edwards I'd be all for it.

But I know, feelings, I'm sorry everyone...I can't say that.

nomafafem

April 9th, 2015 at 4:27 AM ^

  

 
 
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