"NFL teams make about 40% of their two-point conversions, or perhaps a
bit more. So when trailing by 5 with 21:00 to play, going for two is
the correct play."
how accurate is this 40% number when applied to the college game?
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Unverified Voracity Recaps Wooo
Wooo! The two-pointer as viewed from the student section:
More postgame revelry captured by camera phones can be found at WCBN. Michigan Football Saturdays has a convenient roundup of the various informational links.
Meanwhile… celebratory posts abound:
- The HSR says [obligatory "rock band" guitar miming] "don't stop believin'." [/miming] Some unruly Wisconsin fans are called out. (FWIW, the ones in our section were all fine except one guy who stood up for almost everything.)
- The WLA has two separate reaction pieces.
- GSimmons has an excellent post from his perspective as a coach.
- Varsity Blue has some bullets.
- In the Diaries there's an… uh… running diary from wolverine32, a simple declaration that Chrisgocomment loves Michigan football, a Saturday relived, and Lordfoul's recap. Uh… and a seriously serious suggestion (we're from serious) that we hire Kirk Ferentz.
Sample the bounty of the internet and laugh contemptuously the next time someone pines for the old days when we'd get Mitch Albom's column and that's it.
BTW, the winner of last week's Awesome Diary = T Shirt Contest was, unsurprisingly, drexel, who got his Wisconsin scouting report bumped to the front page. May I suggest now is the time to get your Bow Down, Little Brother shirt? Or Zoltan For Space Emperor? Topical!
I loled. Cute kids watching the first half of the Wisconsin game, and then a punch line:
That man wins the dry sarcasm award of the week.
We're what? Whenever I post anything about lines four people correct me, but it's worth trying again:
That's the opening line from LVSC. Michigan is… favored? Elsewhere I've seen Michigan –2 and Michigan –2.5, which… wow. I know Illinois has been seivetastic on defense this year and squeaked by a Sun Belt team by three but I have also watched Michigan this year.
Eeee? I was all ready to fire up the Barwis bandwagon once again in the wake of this quote from Brandon Minor…
"There was one play and I ran down the field for an incompletion, and the linebacker that was chasing me, he was out of breath," Wolverines running back Brandon Minor said. "I came back a couple more plays and then scored. I still wasn't tired till my team beat me up on the sideline."
…but, uh… Minor's final line for the game: two carries for 35 yards and one catch for 11. He was in considerably more than he had been the past few games, but this does not exactly seem like a miraculous workload.
At least there's that. Apparently there was no replay of the critical roughing the passer penalty that turned fourth and fifteen into a first down and eventually a touchdown, but someone on the Wisconsin board has a set of images that appear to show it was a good call. FWIW.
Numberin'. Reader Alton provides a link to a mathematical breakdown of two point conversions by lead and time remaining. The data in the cells is what percentage chance you must exceed to make two points the best choice.
The slot for up one with twelve minutes left: 28%. The slot for nine minutes left: 21%. For about 10:30, then, it's reasonable to assume it was the right call if Michigan had a 25% chance to punch it in.
Another reader objects, saying that chart makes an awful lot of assumptions and can't be taken as gospel, and he's right, but I think the assumptions the chart makes—like the offenses in question are NFL-average ones versus NFL-average defenses—actually bias the chart in such a way that they overstate the necessary percentage for the call to be a good idea. This was not a close decision.
Etc.: Good stuff from Football Outsiders that's close to what my idea of a better set of college football statistics would be.
September 29th, 2008 at 3:32 PM
#2
"NFL teams make about 40%
September 29th, 2008 at 3:54 PM
#3
Video #1
Gave me chills. Go Blue
September 29th, 2008 at 3:55 PM
#4
Let me get this straight.....
......somebody posts a diary picking Big 10 winners against the vegas line and over/under totals......goes 7-0.....and does not win diary of the week!?!?!
What a rip off!!!
Actually, I kid. I love Drexel's stuff......dude knows his shit and his diaries have made one of the best sports blogs on the web even better.
Besides, I look too good in this hat made out of $100 bills to really care.
September 29th, 2008 at 4:13 PM
#5
For this week...
John Thompson for Kick Returner.
Could it really hurt?
September 29th, 2008 at 5:58 PM
#6
All these newfangled cell phone camera whatsits
recordin' my futbaw really aren't that much worse the horrid monstrosity the BTN calls a game broadcast.
September 29th, 2008 at 6:50 PM
#7
GREAT ADJUSTMENT!!!
Just finished the DVR after being at the game.
Number of times M passed downfield (does not include bubble screens)
First half on 1st down -0-, on second down 1(and No, I am not counting the last play of the half - a pass on first down - that is a whole nother story).
Second half: Of first 21 1st and 2nd downs: 16 passes!!
That forced W to back off (they were putting 7-8 in box) even though a lot of the passes were incomplete.
Great adjustment by the coaches!!!
September 30th, 2008 at 6:59 AM
#8
Can we start the season over
Can we start the season over with Threet passing to set up the run against Utah? Great gameplans > great adjustments. RR better recognize my awesome 20/20 hindsight.
September 30th, 2008 at 10:33 AM
#9
Not Lloyd Ball
I give RR all the credit for being able to recognize that his preferred offense was just not working and make the adjustments in the 2nd half.
If this was Lloyd, we would just continue down the same path no matter what (god dammit, we're gonna run this ball!).
September 29th, 2008 at 7:13 PM
#10
Wisconsin fans
I have to shout out to the decency and level-headedness of the Wisconsin fans on that message board that Brian has linked to. It may be partly a function of the M fanbase being larger than the W fanbase, but post something like that here and there would be a decent level of asshattery. Props to the Wisky fans...this makes me like/respect that team within the Big Ten pantheon even more.
September 29th, 2008 at 8:43 PM
#11
Motion:
For a competition for the best photograph from the WI game. There have GOT to be some good ones floating around out there...
September 30th, 2008 at 10:40 AM
#12
Are we under the impression
Are we under the impression that Lloyd Carr, down 19 points, wouldn't start passing more? Seriously?
That's not an adjustment, it's stark neccessity.
September 30th, 2008 at 11:07 AM
#13
Uh, Yeah
Why do you think they call it Lloyd ball (I didn't invent the term)?
BTW, did you miss the osu game last year?
September 30th, 2008 at 11:09 AM
#14
Absolutley Lloyd would be
Absolutley Lloyd would be pitching that ball around like crazy. That's when his teams played the best! Which made us wonder what the hell they were doing the rest of the time.
In a close game, though, Lloyd would for sure play it close to the vest (not that vest), letting the other team make the adjustments (see: Rose Bowl, Jan. 2007).
September 30th, 2008 at 11:08 AM
#15
You mean the OSU game in
You mean the OSU game in which we threw 41 passes? Yes.
September 30th, 2008 at 11:14 AM
#16
Yup,
Lloyd ball is stubbornly refusing to admit you are wrong. My point was not that Lloyd always ran the ball but he did not make the necessary adjustments.
In the osu game, Lloyd refused to replace a one-armed QB when the one-arm was not his throwing arm!
It got so bad that osu shut down their own offense because they knew Lloyd was not going to change.
September 30th, 2008 at 11:09 AM
#17
Before you try to say "Lloyd
Before you try to say "Lloyd would have just kept running" here are the games, in his last 4 years, in which we trailed by more than two scores, and the corresponding # of passes:
2007 vs. Oregon – 40 passes
2007 vs. Wisconsin – 41 passes
2007 vs. OSU – 37 passes
2006 vs. USC – 41 passes
2005 vs. ND – 44 passes
2004 vs. OSU – 54 passes
2004 vs. Minnesota – 49 passes
So, Lloyd DID throw considerably more when down big. Like any coach, ever.
September 30th, 2008 at 11:11 AM
#18
Seriously. Lets forget things
Seriously. Lets forget things like "facts" and "evidence" and argue based on memes propogated by internet commenters.
September 30th, 2008 at 11:18 AM
#19
Since my camera isn't even
Since my camera isn't even close to pocket-sized, last season I stopped taking it to the stadium because it took too much effort to carry it around and to keep it safe. (It's nice just to watch the games, particularly since I photograph more sports than I watch. Besides, I'm never close enough to get worthwhile action shots anyway.) But every now and again there's a game that makes me start to wish I'd carried my camera; this game was one of them. My camera doesn't shoot video, and I probably wouldn't have gotten any good shots of the pandemonium -- I was too busy being part of it -- but part of me wishes I'd had my camera with me, just in case.
September 30th, 2008 at 11:19 AM
#20
Aside from when he replaced
Aside from when he replaced Henne with Ryan Mallett, who played 2 series, got sacked twice because he ran around like a chicken with his head cut off, and fumbled at least once.
September 30th, 2008 at 11:21 AM
#21
And OSU shut down their
And your point WAS that Lloyd would have kept running the ball, because that's precisely what you said.
September 30th, 2008 at 11:25 AM
#22
Really?
I guess this means you think Lloyd is a better coach than RR?
My original post was that this was a great adjustment by RR. Apparently you think the coaches don't get any credit for the greatest comeback in M stadium history?
September 30th, 2008 at 11:31 AM
#23
Well.....
......Lloyd does have a national title to his credit.
RR does not.
Yet.
September 30th, 2008 at 12:02 PM
#24
You are absolutely right!
And, it is a little early for me to be so excited about RR (I can't help it, just look at my icon).
If RR lasts 10 years and the stats show he has not done better than Llyod, then Lloyd is obviously the better coach.
If RR brings home the MNC TWICE then he will be the annointed one.
September 30th, 2008 at 11:35 AM
#25
That's not at all what I'm
That's not at all what I'm saying.
Saying that Lloyd Carr passed in situation in which he was down is not, at all, saying he was an awesome coach. I said myself that "any coach, ever" would do that. That is not a judgement on RR vs. Carr, at all. For the record, I think Carr was, largely, an excellent coach. I think he got too far detached towards the end. I think Rodrigeuz, also, is an excellent coach.
I also think the coaches deserve credit for keeping the heads of a young team in a game in which they were getting handled. I do not think that "throwing more" when you are down 19 counts as a revolutionary strategic decision. It is a decision that every coach in NCAA football would make because it is the glaringly obvious correct decision.
September 30th, 2008 at 11:37 AM
#26
What the Hell?
Lest you think I am always an RR supporter.
What in the hell was the last play in the first half? M is on their own 38 (not bad field position) but there are only 4 seconds left!!!
Throw a long pass for a touchdown? Really? The odds are millions to one against that happening.
The down side is what was two yards from happening -- pick six.
September 30th, 2008 at 11:45 AM
#27
Enjoy Life - you made a
Enjoy Life - you made a statement that was factually incorrect. Rather than admit that, you decided to move the goal posts, and completely alter what you originally said. When called on that, you decided to make a straw man out of my argument - something I didn't come close to saying. There's no shame in being wrong. I have been proven wrong many times on this board. It's not a contest.
September 30th, 2008 at 12:10 PM
#28
Dude
Uh, mind telling me which statement was "factually incorrect"?
BTW, you might want to learn to use the REPLY button so your replies actually appear under the post you are referring to. That would make it much easier for all of us.
Thanks
September 30th, 2008 at 12:15 PM
#29
If this was Lloyd, we would
If this was Lloyd, we would just continue down the same path no matter what (god dammit, we're gonna run this ball!).
September 30th, 2008 at 12:26 PM
#30
Opinions vs. Facts
The statement: If this was Lloyd, we would just continue down the same path no matter what (god dammit, we're gonna run this ball!).
Was merely my opinion. And, of course, it is completely hypothetical -- no one knows what Lloyd would have done last Saturday.
I have figured out that you disagree with my opinion! That certainly does not make either of us right or wrong.
BTW I am absolutely wrong at least several times every day -- this just isn't one of them!
(before flaming, please note the joke/sarcasim intended)
September 30th, 2008 at 12:49 PM
#31
Why I Hate You
You stated your opinion - Lloyd would not have thrown the ball.
Chitown responded, showing that when Lloyd was down in situations exactly like Wisconsin - he did throw the ball more.
Then, you say "hypothetically" he wouldn't have done so, since "no one can ever know".
Except, when we were down like that when Lloyd was coach, HE DID THROW THE BALL.
So, your "opinion", is that this would have been the time when Lloyd decided to do the OPPOSITE of what he did EVERY TIME WE WERE IN THE SAME SITUATION WHEN HE WAS THE COACH.
But since it's like, your opinion, man, it can't be argued! You must be right!
I hope you lose your job, your keyboard blows up, and you can no longer post on the internet for at least six months.
September 30th, 2008 at 1:00 PM
#32
My opinion
Unicorns exist. In vast numbers. And they are fucking beautiful. Granted, I've never seen a unicorn and there's never been credible fossil evidence to suggest they ever existed, but maybe, someday, I'll see one, so I choose to believe they exist. That's my opinion, so it's irrefutable.
Shit, my keyboard just blew up.
September 30th, 2008 at 3:30 PM
#33
DEX --
"Why I Hate You"
Really? Comments on a blog create that level of anger? You have some serious issues.
Chitownblue stated that I was factually incorrect. In fact (pun intended), he was the only one that was factually incorrect because I did not state any facts just opinions.
Ironic isn't it.
September 30th, 2008 at 3:34 PM
#34
Fact
Your facts become your opinions the moment your facts are proven to be totally incorrect, thus leaving you only with incorrect opinions.
September 30th, 2008 at 3:44 PM
#35
Ok
In my opinion, the sun is actually the size of a nickel and it is magnified by the pollution in our atmosphere.
In my opinion, the United States was founded in 1934 by descendents of a Visigoth tribe that migrated via time travel device.
In my opinion, Earth is constructed entirely out of taffy.
In my opinion, "gravity" is a myth- we are held in place by a giant Dyson located at the center of the earth.
Go ahead. Tell me I'm wrong. I'm just stating an opinion. If you use, HAH, "facts", to dispute that opinion, it doesn't matter. It's an opinion. Opinions can never be wrong. No matter what your facts say!
September 30th, 2008 at 5:32 PM
#36
More rage??
Dex, dex, dex.
Relax, calm down. It is only a blog.
Are you really this upset over the statement that I thought RR made a "great adjustment" and that Lloyd would not have?
Really, should I have said it was a "good" adjustment, how about "there were no adjustments made by M coaches that any other NCAA football coach would have made" (as some have stated on this blog).
Or was it the reference to Lloyd? Saying Lloyd would not have made the same adjustments made you and several others that upset?
I know the market looks bad (up today, though) but take some valium.
September 30th, 2008 at 5:47 PM
#37
No, it was your statement
No, it was your statement that Lloyd would have run the ball, which is incorrect. If you would admit that mistake, everybody would leave you alone.
September 30th, 2008 at 7:36 PM
#38
Mea Culpa
Oh My God Society Is Collapsing And We Will Soon Devour Each Other In The Streets Like Dogs And A Crippled One-Eyed Boy Will Be King If We Don't Fix This By Next Week! (Courtesy of Colbert).
Golly jee whilakers, I was wrong Lloyd would have passed the ball more than RR, In fact, Lloyd never ran the ball, ever!!
Everyone happy now?
Ooops, now you're gonna say that it is factually incorrect that Lloyd never ran the ball!
Crap, that would be factually incorrect.
Let's see Lloyd is/was/and always will be the greatest coach ever!!
That must be factually correct!
September 30th, 2008 at 6:32 PM
#39
How come it seems
eveyone wants Dex to take his meds?
October 1st, 2008 at 7:55 AM
#40
Because they are sissies who
Because they are sissies who think I'm "enraged" at them and can't handle the fact their special little opinion might not be, you know, anywhere near correct.
October 1st, 2008 at 1:49 PM
#41
That was my second guess
my first guess was that when you are off your meds, like about a month ago, you go around posting as some guy named "ellipses man" (in addition to posting as Chitownblue, MRG, ShockFX, BGH, Ninja Football, Brian, Other Chris and The Flaming Gerbil).
September 30th, 2008 at 12:33 PM
#42
My only point is that
My only point is that opinions should be justified and supported by facts. When I try to figure out where I stand on something, I generally research to see if my viewpoint is valid. If I see that all statistical evidence refutes my opinion, I'll probably abandon it.
September 30th, 2008 at 12:41 PM
#43
Question
Here's another hypothetical: do you think we would have won the game on Saturday with Lloyd coaching?
I don't. That is just my opinion.
September 30th, 2008 at 2:26 PM
#44
Sure
Why not......he coached some pretty big comebacks before.
September 30th, 2008 at 1:38 PM
#45
That video.......
was in-fucking-credible.
Outstanding!
Let's GO Blue!
