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Unverified Voracity Quantifies Special Teams

By Brian — November 9th, 2010 at 12:57 PM — 68 comments
Filed under:
  • 2010 illinois
  • denard robinson
  • don't mess with jon chait
  • free press jihad
  • greg robinson
  • michigan daily destroys pros
  • special teams
  • spread n shred
  • unfair but accurate
  • unverified voracity
  • wonkery

Profiling, again. The Daily continues its streak of crushing everyone out there with Michigan football profiles, this time hitting up Deerfield Beach for the Denard Robinson story. Cue adorable child who doesn't like you stealing her soul:

image

Also let's not forget that making Shoelace, Denard Robinson, for uh, shirt, you know, within the NCAA—that isn't legal.

The story itself is another epic five-pager. Sounds like he was a natural:

“He loved to run that ball,” Huggins says, looking over his old stomping grounds at Westside Park. “He’d tell me, ‘Coach, call quarterback sneak!’ I’d tell him no, to hand it off, and so he’d fake the handoff and keep it and run for a ton of yards.”

Zone read from the start. This is a read the whole thing situation.

From "it won't work in the Big Ten" to this. Illinois blog Hail to the Orange (wait… what?) on Saturday:

The difference is, and the major problem on Saturday, was that with Michigan when we bit, we paid dearly, every time. It seemed as though just one missed tackle, one bad angle and the punishment was a touchdown. We were running a contain game most of the day against Denard, and we paid because there was relatively little pressure against him, giving his receivers too much time to get open, and when combined with a play action always were open. The result: 305 PASSING yards from the Nard dog.

There were of course some bright spots. We have continued the trend of taking the ball away from the other team and not giving it back. (Five TO's recovered, to one lost.) Against teams not made out of tiny track stars coated in butter, this will equate to a win.

We will not see another team this offensively talented this season (pending a bowl bid) generally we can improve our decision making in the secondary enough to not give up constant 75 yard bombs, at least I hope not.

Here's the crazy thing: that first bit on "paid dearly, every time" isn't even true. You know that interception Denard zinged over Webb's head? That's either a touchdown or Webb gets run down from behind as Michigan switched up the QB Lead Oh Noes from the slot receiver to the TE. The safety who intercepted the ball was headed for Roundtree and dead meat until the ball went ZING. I've got two separate RPS+3 plays that end in disaster for Michigan already. If anything, Michigan's immolation of the Illinois defense is even more impressive on review because it could have been considerably worse if Denard makes a few better throws. I think we've established that Denard's not going to make great throws all the time, but man… in the UFR Michigan's going to have a huge RPS number.

The whole thing's driven Vic Koennig to despondency:

"They get you in a run, run, run mode then they drop back and hit a pass on you. They had us running around and not doing anything well."

Srs, his postgame presser is like watching a dog get kicked. Meanwhile on the Michigan sideline, Illinois has just scored to go up 45-38 aaaaand…

gergdigginforgold

Fair? No. Accurate? Yes. User Tom Pickle with the win.

Sorry about nearly killing you. That guy who got plowed on the sideline during Tate's double personal foul keeper in overtime was actually Channel 7's Don Shane. The two shared a heartwarming moment afterwards:

He's got the flags to prove it, Don.

More advanced metricing. Michigan's moved up to #3 nationally in FO's S&P ratings… on offense. They're just behind Auburn and Boise State, #1 on "standard downs" and #6 on pass downs. Ohio State(!) is a surprising #5, and then the next Big Ten team is #17 Wisconsin. Michigan is #98 on defense. Woo.

I also asked Brian Fremeau for Michigan's kickoff numbers to see if that aspect of the game is actually hurting them much. I asked him last week and never got around to posting them, so these are a little out of date. In an effort to reduce confusion I'm going to flip signs so negative is always bad and positive is good. The units here are in average points away from expectation.

Kickoffs: –0.054 (79th)
Kick Return: –0.099 (95th)

Punts: +0.101 (13th)
Punt return: –0.023 (77th)

What this means is for every ten Michigan punts Michigan has saved a point in expected field position; for every ten kick returns they've lost a point in expected field position. So.

  • Points on kickoffs (58): -3.1
  • Points on kick returns (56): -5.5
  • Points on punts (30): +3.0
  • Points on punt returns(40): –0.9

Grand total: around –6.5 pending how Michigan's performance against Illinois changes the numbers (I'm guessing it doesn't change much since Michigan gave up some good returns but also busted the long one before the half).

Meanwhile, Michigan's no longer national-worst kickers (up to 117!) are –1.0 per FGA. They've attempted 11, so the field goal situation is almost twice as damaging as the rest of it. All told Michigan's losing about two points a game on special teams, which doesn't sound like much until you consider that flipping that stat would take Michigan's scoring margin from +5 to +9.

Belated Free Press denouement. I had football to talk about and didn't get around to this but a few bits and pieces to wrap up the jihad. A national take from Doc Sat:

The tepid infractions that came to light as a result of the Freep's digging are the minimum you'd expect to find at any sprawling program operating under a massive handbook, as the basic cost of employing fallible human beings while continuing to dead-lift with the Joneses. Other programs, however, weren't the target of an investigation by a major metropolitan newspaper that left no stone unturned in its efforts to make a splash against a high-profile coach who almost immediately cleaved the fan base down the middle. Michigan was, which is why it was Michigan that was forced to roll its eyes and slap itself on the wrist in halfhearted contrition as the "probation" label is applied for the first time in school history.

Chait drops Chaitbombs to the point where the fiancée thinks she should use this…

Here's the headline of one report: "RichRod gets win, but still needs more on field" Here's the headline of a second: "UM's violations deemed major, but not serious" And here's a third: "NCAA's verdict: Rodriguez ignored rules; U-M gets more probation"

Those headlines came from ESPN, the Detroit News, and the Detroit Free Press. You can probably guess which was which.

…as part of a media framing discussion in future classes she teaches. MVictors has audio from Brandon's appearance on WTKA wherein he said

“We apologized yesterday because we made mistakes.  I’m kinda waiting for somebody from the media to apologize for mistakes they made.  And I’m not sure that’s ever going to happen, but that would be a nice thing, wouldn’t it?”

And of course the guy who asked if Rodriguez would be fired and got a death glare was Drew Sharp. Brandon should have asked "when is the Free Press going to fire you?"

Etc.: Wisconsin's John Clay and starting center Peter Konz are "iffy" for this week's game against Indiana. Sounds like they should be good to go for Michigan but sprains can be weird. This Week In Schadenfreude does not feature Colorado because no Colorado fans care anymore. Anything can happen in dead coach walking situations and fans will just shrug and talk about who the next guy is going to be. Michigan State is 9-1 for the first time in a million years and they still can't sell out their game against Purdue without resorting to two-for-one deals.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:04 PM
#2
ish
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 13986
that's a really tough call

that's a really tough call btwn a pick and a scratch.  but the wipe on the face puts me over.  gerg has shiny hair, but poor hygiene.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:27 PM
(Reply to #2) #3
Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom's picture
Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 1376
He should have used the Thumb

He should have used the Thumb and Forefinger Nostril pinch technique.

Bad fundamentals. UNACCEPTABLE!

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:13 PM
(Reply to #2) #4
bluenyc
bluenyc's picture
Joined: 06/25/2010
MGoPoints: 7043
At least he didn't eat it. 

At least he didn't eat it.  Brian, that is so wrong, GERG already has it rough.

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:31 PM
(Reply to #2) #5
FrankMurphy
FrankMurphy's picture
Joined: 08/19/2008
MGoPoints: 10000
There may have been some

There may have been some incidental penetration, but from our angle, we're in no position to make the call.

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November 9th, 2010 at 6:00 PM
(Reply to #39) #6
M-Wolverine
M-Wolverine's picture
Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 42199
You're throwing a flag

For a replay review?

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:50 PM
(Reply to #2) #7
ESNY
Joined: 11/06/2008
MGoPoints: 7199
GERG went for the classic

GERG went for the classic inverted flick.  A non chalant way to remove any edge of nostril boogie crumbs that remained from a previous, unseen full pick.

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November 9th, 2010 at 10:22 PM
(Reply to #2) #8
champswest
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Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 18403
Gee, I thought he was flashing defensive signals!

This must have been taken out of context.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:09 PM
#9
BiSB
BiSB's picture
Joined: 08/15/2009
MGoPoints: 44839
That interview with Illinois' DC

Wow.  That is a man who does not feel very good about life. 

I guess we've just been desensitized to incomprehensibly porous defensive performances. Our scar tissue is deep.  Illinois, it appears, can't look at a 60+ point performance and say, "eh, shit happens."

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:24 PM
(Reply to #4) #10
joeyb
joeyb's picture
Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 14048
I'd imagine they look for the

I'd imagine they look for the best deals throughout the entire semester and find flights that are $100 round trip. Make it for a day and you don't have to pay for a hotel or check any bags other than maybe the camera. I'd imagine they have a pretty decent budget at such a large school.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:25 PM
(Reply to #4) #11
Farnn
Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 11640
I was thinking the same

I was thinking the same thing, and then wondered if the writer isn't from Florida, was home for fall break, and went to do the story. Or they could have been visiting friends down there. If you shop smart, airfare isn't much, so The Daily may have been able to pay for it, or the writer paid for it himself. A big story like that looks great if the author wants to work in journalism.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:13 PM
#12
Silly Goose
Silly Goose's picture
Joined: 04/17/2010
MGoPoints: 882
I think

he is smelling his hair. If mine was as luxurious as Gerg's, I'd do the exact same thing.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:19 PM
#13
quiqsilver
quiqsilver's picture
Joined: 08/29/2009
MGoPoints: 956
Does the cute girl have any

Does the cute girl have any game film?  Her face is the inverse of Denard's typical expression, so I was thinking she might play defense.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:37 PM
(Reply to #6) #14
LB
LB's picture
Joined: 09/26/2009
MGoPoints: 10448
Grrr, beat me to it. Do we need film?

That is her game face. Please don't ask her to show you her war face!

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:10 PM
(Reply to #22) #15
MBAgoblue
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Joined: 07/09/2008
MGoPoints: 2120
Incorrect: her name is

Incorrect: her name is Charlene and that's her war face. You got a war face?

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:20 PM
#16
MGoShtoink
MGoShtoink's picture
Joined: 11/05/2010
MGoPoints: 8523
The result: 305 PASSING yards

The result: 305 PASSING yards from the Nard dog.

Nard dog?  Nard dog.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:24 PM
#17
jhackney
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Joined: 12/11/2008
MGoPoints: 19763
In all fairness

I heard there is a tractor pull next Saturday near East Lansing that is pulling the fan base away from their game.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:32 PM
(Reply to #10) #18
tubauberalles
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1101
Seconded

I can only imagine what a camera might have caught were it to pan to my face at most any time during that game.  I'm certain I wouldn't want a .gif made of it and fused to some internet theme of my competence.

Golden Rule and all that...

Adding: not to be a ninny, of course - if it were Tressel and his hygiene being impugned, I'd be all in.  I'm a homer.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:29 PM
(Reply to #10) #19
profitgoblue
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Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 19557
Self-Deprecation

If you can't laugh at "yourself," who can you laugh at?

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:37 PM
(Reply to #16) #20
BBA1994
Joined: 10/19/2009
MGoPoints: 205
It's often more fun

to laugh at other people.

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November 9th, 2010 at 3:07 PM
(Reply to #29) #21
profitgoblue
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Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 19557
Not a member of the "good portion"

I'm still not a member of that good portion you mention.  I'm not in that Aegis-class boat yet, so to speak.

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:01 PM
(Reply to #10) #22
Raoul
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Joined: 09/29/2009
MGoPoints: 13957
Agree, MGoShoe.

Agree, MGoShoe.

And at least he's not chewing on (artificial) grass.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:29 PM
#23
hillhaus
Joined: 09/04/2009
MGoPoints: 57
"It won't work in the Big Ten"...

This foolish meme would be more correctly stated as, "it won't work AGAIN in the Big Ten."

While the forward pass was being refined, quarterbacks would routinely run, kick, punt, etc. Turn back the clock and you'll find several Michigan quarterbacks who had success running the ball. For instance: Benny Friedman. He went on to become "the first great passer in professional football," and in 1928 he led the NFL is passing touchdowns, rushing touchdowns, scoring and extra points (while playing for the Detroit Wolverines). He remains the only player to ever lead the NFL in passing and rushing touchdowns in the same season.

Interestingly enough, Friedman's coach at Michigan was a man from West Virginia who learned football while playing tackle for the Mountaineers. That man's name was Fielding H Yost.

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November 9th, 2010 at 4:42 PM
(Reply to #12) #24
caup
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1702
And now you know...

...the rest of the story.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:29 PM
#25
htownwolverine
htownwolverine's picture
Joined: 09/02/2009
MGoPoints: 7149
That other newspaper.

I ventured over and read J Samuelsen's crap today and well whateva. I am not smart enough to post the text only link but everyone should go over and negative comment.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:34 PM
(Reply to #15) #26
profitgoblue
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Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 19557
Boooo!

See my above post - down with the Free Press!

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:00 PM
(Reply to #15) #27
Go Blue Beat Th...
Joined: 10/27/2010
MGoPoints: 57
J samuelson blog

I couldn't agree more. Livid to start my day because that garbage was the first thing I saw. I think it would actually kill them to write one good thing about this team. With all the shit that has been thrown not only at the coaches, but also the players, I think DBrandon should do Rrod--and, more importantly, the team-- a favor and throw his public support behind him, express his admiration for maintaining control and for leading a team that represents UM in a way that speaks to the character of the ideal Michigan Man, (tenacious, relentless, resilient, and a team that plays like a team and supports itself from within, which gives it the ability to withstand the constant childish attacks from the media and play a brand of football that makes the Michigan program one I, as a faithful alumnus, am more than proud to support). In short, "fuck all y'all motha fuckas." These clowns from the freep should lose their press passes. Hail.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:32 PM
#28
profitgoblue
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Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 19557
Free Press Boycott

My Free Press boycott was challenged on Sunday at the Detroit Metro Airport.  I stopped at one of the kiosks in the airport before my flight back home to get a newspaper with UM-Illinois highlights.  It was there that I learned that the Detroit News and Free Press put out a joint Sunday paper!?  WTF?  Well, needless to say, I was pissed but kept strong in my boycott.  Why the f- is there a combined Sunday paper??

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:36 PM
(Reply to #17) #29
tubauberalles
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1101
Not from Michigan?

The JOA has been in place for what must be a couple decades by now - "Joint Operating Agreement" was a major labor, business, journalism story for quite a while and a microcosm for the long decline of Detroit's population (aka, readership) and economy.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:58 PM
(Reply to #20) #30
profitgoblue
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Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 19557
Explanation

I'm originally from Michigan and went to undergrad there back in the mid-90s but haven't read either of the papers on anything near to a regular basis.  So, yes, I did just make the discovery of what apparently been the situation for a long time.  Its still a strange thing, no?  Why not just have one big paper rather than two?

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:08 PM
(Reply to #25) #31
Bodogblog
Bodogblog's picture
Joined: 06/08/2010
MGoPoints: 21193
Inevitably that's what they're

going to have to do.  If Sharp is retained in the consolidated paper I'll start reading the Oakland Pr-... actually, I don't read any local papers now.  So nothing will change. 

(read detnews online once or twice a week)

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November 9th, 2010 at 10:30 PM
(Reply to #31) #32
champswest
champswest's picture
Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 18403
I tried that switch to the Oakland Press, but

then you have to put up with Pat Caputo.  RR must have spit on Caputo's mothers grave or something, because he really hates RR.

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November 9th, 2010 at 7:57 PM
(Reply to #25) #33
Puget Sound Blue
Puget Sound Blue's picture
Joined: 11/18/2008
MGoPoints: 497
Freep-News JOA began in 1987

Joint operating agreements were authorized under the Newspaper Preservation Act of 1970 to allow newspapers in the same market to combine operations and therefore cut costs, the rationale being that JOAs would allow multiple newspapers to survive where circulation was declining.  This was before the age of 24 hour/day TV news and the Internet, so the Act's supporters argued that the Act would preserve editorial diversity and prevent a single large newspaper from controlling the local market.

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:12 PM
#34
jdog
Joined: 08/26/2010
MGoPoints: 901
The Michigan Daily

Saw this article on Sunday and was mightily impressed.  Somewhat off topic, I also saw on the same page that Ann Arbor has banned porch couches, and all I can say is I hope the fines are not retroactive. 

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:51 PM
#35
oriental andrew
oriental andrew's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 19784
While I do appreciate and got

While I do appreciate and got a good laugh out of the MSU subway 2-for-1 deal for the Purdue game (which is SENIOR DAY and would see them go to 10-1, in all likelihood), I do wonder why our own student section seemed so empty at the start of the Illinois game.  Too early for the kids to get to the stadium?  It looked a little sad on TV, quite frankly.  

 

Then again, 2 consecutive losing seasons and Michigan is still selling out their home games.  For all their on-field success this season, the MSU fans STILL aren't showing up.  

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November 9th, 2010 at 3:51 PM
(Reply to #23) #36
mooseman
Joined: 07/10/2008
MGoPoints: 1798
In defense of our students,

I don't think any school is immune to this. The same was true of the Penn State game at 8 pm. A guy next to me pointed out a section that looked reserved (like the band section). It was just a portion of the student section that had not yet filled. Fortunately our students more than do their job come game time.

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November 9th, 2010 at 7:01 PM
(Reply to #47) #37
M-Wolverine
M-Wolverine's picture
Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 42199
I think the point he was making was

Come game time, the section was still more than half empty, and didn't fill up even by the end of the 1st quarter. The ones who show are loud. But the ones who don't, obviously aren't.

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November 9th, 2010 at 1:55 PM
#38
jlvanals
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 707
Fire Jeremy Gallon

and find someone who can hold on to the goddamn ball. 

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:03 PM
(Reply to #24) #39
lager86
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Joined: 01/30/2009
MGoPoints: 242
The use of Gallon to return

The use of Gallon to return kicks and punts is contrary to what we have traditionally done and what most major college teams do.  in the past, we have always used starters to return kicks and punts: AC, Desmond, Manningham, Woodson, Breaston, even the A-Train used to return kicks.  I don't like the idea of using a guy who's cold and has had no reps to come in and field kicks.  Put Shaw and Vincent or Stonum back on kickoffs and put someone like Grady out their to return punts.

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November 9th, 2010 at 3:34 PM
(Reply to #24) #40
msoccer10
Joined: 08/29/2008
MGoPoints: 1754
Keep Jeremy Gallon

While I am distressed at how poorly Gallon has returned kicks to this point and am eager to start the Dileo era (at least for punts) I wonder if playing Gallon there is an attempt to keep him happy so he doesn't transfer. We are loaded at slot receiver and receiver in general so there is little playing time and even fewer balls to go around. I think Gallon is a tremendous talent and I would hate to see him transfer because he is not being used. Anyway, that is my theory for why he is still returning kicks.

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November 9th, 2010 at 5:00 PM
(Reply to #45) #41
Derek
Derek's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 2423
Interesting thought. If true,

Interesting thought. If true, I really wish they would just stick him in the slot for more offensive plays because watching him try to catch punts is too hard. There has to be a better way.

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:02 PM
#42
RadioSimon1983
Joined: 11/11/2009
MGoPoints: 557
It's unbelievable that there

It's unbelievable that there has no been disciplinary action at the FreeP against Sharp for what he did.  Michigan really didn't do anything that any other school hasn't done, but they just had to get rid of Rodriguez.  I want to see a smirk on RR's face when he wins a national title and never lets Drew sharp ask a question.

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:12 PM
#43
MBAgoblue
MBAgoblue's picture
Joined: 07/09/2008
MGoPoints: 2120
Listen to the audio file

Listen to the audio file attached to the Daily article. Good stuff that didn't make it into the article.

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:16 PM
#44
Bodogblog
Bodogblog's picture
Joined: 06/08/2010
MGoPoints: 21193
MSU not selling out is the definition of their program

Same with the FAU deal at Ford Field.  Beyond pulling out their (boring, lifeless) "STATE" sweatshirts and hats for the first time in 25 years, they don't really care.  Not a committed fanbase.  But at 9-1, that is downright humiliating. 

Re. "Against teams not made out of tiny track stars coated in butter, this will equate to a win."  Does he have any comment of the shredding they took at the hands of Tate? 

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:25 PM
(Reply to #35) #45
FrankMurphy
FrankMurphy's picture
Joined: 08/19/2008
MGoPoints: 10000
He may not be a track star,

He may not be a track star, but I'm sure Tate loves him some butter. 

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:27 PM
(Reply to #35) #46
Wolvmarine
Wolvmarine's picture
Joined: 08/28/2008
MGoPoints: 5914
Ticket Sales

I honestly would never have expected this, considering the absolute egregious amounts of trash talking Sparty hands to Michigan fans consitantly, how can this fanbase not sell out Spartan Stadium? 

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November 9th, 2010 at 2:47 PM
(Reply to #38) #47
Chunks the Hobo
Chunks the Hobo's picture
Joined: 07/22/2008
MGoPoints: 4065
Easy. They don't have all

Easy. They don't have all those WALMART WOLVERINES!!111!1(TM) buying tickets like we do.

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November 9th, 2010 at 3:45 PM
(Reply to #41) #48
mooseman
Joined: 07/10/2008
MGoPoints: 1798
You are correct.

MSU requires verification of alumni status to purchase tickets, clothing or even cheer for the Spartans.

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November 9th, 2010 at 6:59 PM
(Reply to #41) #49
TennBlue
TennBlue's picture
Joined: 10/12/2010
MGoPoints: 6445
Setting up tables

outside Wal*Marts and grocery stores might not be a bad idea.  Works for the Girl Scouts.

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November 9th, 2010 at 3:52 PM
(Reply to #38) #50
zlionsfan
zlionsfan's picture
Joined: 10/31/2008
MGoPoints: 632
It's funny ...

they didn't have any trouble selling tickets ten years ago when Purdue was the team with Rose Bowl hopes and the Spartans were the ones just playing out the string ...

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November 9th, 2010 at 10:35 PM
(Reply to #38) #51
champswest
champswest's picture
Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 18403
It is a good thing that Spartan Stadium doesn't seat

111,000 or it would really look empty.

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