Obligatory "OH NOES WE'LL NEVER GET ANOTHER RECRUIT EVER BECAUSE WE LOST ON A COUPLE 50/50 GUYS!" I like this board, but sometimes people need to grow a pair.
Unverified Voracity Is Not Eating The Lemon
This could be going better. I was really thinking there'd be a Hello post yesterday. Instead, bupkis. Armani Reeves sticks with his buddy and Alex Kozan commits to Iowa. Michigan's 50-50 shots are coming up tails. With Sam Grant headed to Oklahoma, even their better than 50-50 shots are coming up tails.
Big deal? Somewhat. It's not a huge deal to downgrade from a 3/4 star type like Kozan to a sleeper three star like new DT hotness Willie Henry*. Losing Reeves and having Yuri Wright go off the board** because of various tweets about organisms (not those organisms) does leave corner a little dodgy, especially if you look at 5'8" Cass Tech corners skeptically these days. The depth chart looks fine there, though.
OL and TE not so much. Diamond is a huge priority now and if Chris Muller looks like he might shake free from Rutgers (survey says… probably not, but not out of the question) I would hop on that rather than vacate a bunch of scholarships. Michigan has five more slots and looks like they'll fill two or three from Henry/Diamond. Insert extreme confusion about Arnett situation here.
Along with Kozan, Iowa's getting guys from eight-man football who have commit posts begin…
That's Nate Meier, a running back/MLB who will either be Chad Greenway or a shiftless hobo in five years depending on which side of the ball he ends up on. The point: no one in the division is recruiting at Hoke's level and with a huge focus on getting character kids, eventually that's going to pay off.
*[Who is not the surprise I was talking about in an earlier post, FWIW. I think that is off the table now; not sure what changed but Henry certainly seems like a one for one drop in for mystery guy. Most likely scenario: they watched Henry's film just now and veered towards him over mystery guy.]
**[LEMON BET STATUS! since every post about Wright's situation ostentatiously mentions Michigan's withdrawal from his recruitment, it is void. The disbelief was that a player from NJ would choose to go to Colorado over Michigan; Wright basically had no choice.
Also: no, Yuri Wright did not get expelled for some frickin' tweets. That does not happen. Similarly, Michigan did not drop the kid for some frickin' tweets. Put the pieces together and you have something like Stonum. The relatively minor thing was the last straw. This is entirely speculation.]
Bye week hockey. Another chaotic weekend in college hockey saw Bowling Green win(!) and UMD come out of a weekend against Michigan Tech on the short end of things. Tech is now .500 on the year and 9-7-2 in the WCHA. Mel Pearson: I be like dang.
Anyway, when the dust cleared Michigan blipped down to seventh in the Pairwise and sixth in the CCHA, but it's not all that bad:
|Ohio State||10||7||5||1||36||22||1 1/3|
|Notre Dame||10||7||3||0||33||20||1 1/3|
|Lake Superior||9||9||4||4||35||22||1 2/3|
|8||Michigan State||8||9||3||2||29||20||2 2/3|
They are a point from a massive n-way tie for third. The schedule doesn't look that intimidating anymore, with series against #3, #8, #9, and 11, though of course there's little difference between 2-9 in the league.
What if we look at goal differential?
Michigan is #1 by a second ENG against OSU and faces #2, #7, #9, and #11. Suddenly things are manageable. After this weekend they'll be exceedingly so. Anything better than a split against Miami and they're rolling to the finish.
As for the Pairwise, pay no attention to the drop. Lowell, BC, and Ferris are ahead by RPI shavings. A collapsing OSU is ahead by a COP shaving. If Michigan plays like they deserve a one seed down the stretch they'll get it. The target number of wins to enter the CCHA playoffs as a top seed is six, which is very doable: sweep terrible BG and one other weekend, split the other two.
The only truly annoying comparison is versus CC, which overcomes a massive RPI gap by playing fewer TUCs (both teams are two games above .500) and beating Union instead of losing to them. Root against the Tigers from here on out.
Negative recruiting: not so much. Amara Darboh:
"A lot of the other coaches, when I would talk to them, they’d ask, 'What other schools you looking at?'" four-star Iowa receiver Amara Darboh said. "And then then they would talk badly about the schools, or bash where I just went.
"But, not Michigan. I don’t know why they didn’t, but I like that they didn’t, and it says a lot about them."
Wormley, Reeves, and Pipkins also vouch for that. And Darboh's guardian brings up Hoke's masterful self control during a key moment:
Dan Schaefer, legal guardian of Darboh, said he was highly skeptical of Michigan because of the failures of the Rich Rodriguez era and the instability of a coaching change. Two things changed his mind.
First, it was Hoke's measured handling of struggling punter Will Hagerup in the Ohio State game last season, which was Darboh's official visit.
"He wasn’t overreacting," Schaefer said. "Like, the punter missed the snap. But (Hoke) didn’t go over there and get in his business right away. I liked that. It gave me confidence he could handle Amara."
I was uttering every cussed cuss I knew and inventing six new ones as this went down. Mienke also has a story on Darboh's turbulent past. Turbulent as in "caught in a civil war."
'98 Wisconsin. Part of Michigan's recovery from that ugly 0-2 start ("Cross is boss! Cross is boss!"):
Via Wolverine Historian, obviously. You can also check out '83 Ohio State.
Well done, America. Texas hates Craig James:
Public Policy Polling just came out of the field with news that only 2 percent of Texas Republicans will vote for him for U.S. Senate. It's early yet, but if Republican political consultant Brian Mayes is correct, 2 percent is about where we should expect him to end up. In the interests of disclosure, I'm working for one of the Democrats in the race, and we aren't concerned with James in the slightest.
"I'm surprised it's that high," said Mayes. "If you ask the average Republican voter... he's remembered for the scandal at SMU and using his position at ESPN to get a wildly popular coach fired. He is by far one of the most hated men in West Texas."
"It's not that people in West Texas don't like him," said Mayes. "It's that nobody likes him."
The only downside to this is ESPN will rehire him on the Stephen A. Smith principle: ESPN hates us as much as America hates Craig James and knows we can't change the channel.
Let the looting begin. The NCAA has come to a fairly obvious realization in the aftermath of finding out there's an Indiana State:
Association President Mark Emmert said Sunday he'll appoint a working group to examine the issue, stressing it will focus on "the way in which Division I is organized for the purposes of making decisions" - and not on a competitive format that now groups football programs into bowl and lower-tier championship subdivisions.
IE, Indiana State shouldn't be able to say anything to anyone. Anonymous officials a bit later in the piece suggest Emmert is being coy in public and another split between football programs is at least going to be spitballed.
Anything that gets San Jose State out of I-A is fine by me, but it seems unlikely anything will come to fruition here. If it does, the break should be based on institutional support offered a football team. If it's over X, GTFO. Prediction: if there is a split, eventually those left behind from the current I-A will merge with FCS as it becomes increasingly difficult to tell the two lower divisions apart.
Success with… actually let's just scratch both. Penn State cuts freshman center Peter Alexis from its basketball team, effective at the end of the season. This is described as the result of a… "carefrontation." That is not a word.
Alexis appears to be a good student and has not gotten in any trouble. Two thirds of BSD voters say this is okay even if it was "purely based on his basketball ability."
This is what happens. Q: What is Molk talking about here?
"I don't like it; I don't care about it; it (ticks) me off," Molk said. "It just adds to my anger."
Also, Molk has to be Michigan's internet-era record holder for most bowdlerized quotes in the newspaper. This story alone has the above plus:
"Missing the Senior Bowl (stinks)."
And then Barwis gets in on it:
"It shows something to the NFL that the guy tore a tendon off a bone and played with a tendon off the bone, and he said, '(Forget) it, I'm going to dominate a game."
Etc.: The East side upper deck of Spartan Stadium is "kind of like 1980s Poland," says A Beautiful Day For Football, which I can vouch for since I've been in it three times. If it was just a holding pen for opposing fans it would make sense. It's not. How to tweet at recruits. I'm surprised Kenpom isn't sitting on top of something tall, screaming "COME AT ME BRO" about Wisconsin after the Badgers resurrected their season.
Bob Miller scouts U17 NTDP commits JT Compher, Tyler Motte, and Evan Allen plus fellow 2013 commit Michael Downing. TomVH gets Barwisized. Remember how Ohio State fans were outraged by oversigning? Never mind. Plague of non-caring students extends to MSU.
My modest hope is that James goes back to the SEC, uh CBS Network, where he started, and where they really don't care if he took money or not. It would at least remove him from the majority of games I watch. If they can put him back in the studio, it could almost completely remove him from my television.
I'm sure Ohio & Urban will end up with something ine excess of 25 LOIs, technically at the BIG limit but far over the number of slots that were thought to be available prior to the 2011 season. Considering the number of players lower on the depth chart that have been run off already, is more frequent use of medical scholarships far behind?
I'm impressed you were even able to speak when Hagerup.... you know. All I did was laugh. My bullshit meter for the OSU game was finally pegged. It was like Titus Andronicus when Titus is sent the heads of his sons just to cap off three acts' worth of tragedy rained upon his head:
Why dost thou laugh? it fits not with this hour.
Why, I have not another tear to shed:
Besides, this sorrow is an enemy,
And would usurp upon my watery eyes
And make them blind with tributary tears:
Then which way shall I find Revenge's cave?
I read TA for a class at Michigan and at one point the professor had a girl come up to the front of the class and act out the Lavinia-writing-with-a-pole-in-her-mouth scene, using an actual pole. Almost as awkward and horrifying as the Hagerup punt fiasco, but not quite.
So when are we going to see Brian mosey his way down to Barwis? Tom VH and Bacon have done it it's time for Brian to get dirty and go EEEEEEEEEEE for real.
He's got to rehab that knee anyway should be the perfect place for that.
"Come on Cook it's a just a little tendon Molk played a whole football game without one now push you !#$^!#^*@#$^*!$#%_)*!#$%*_!#$^)*!#$^*_#$*^!!!!!!
What did happen with Arnett? I'm thoroughly confused by this and don't buy the "we didn't have room for him" explanation.
I'm guessing he just like MSU better, but this is an incredibly difficult rationale for me to wrap my head around. In any case. With any person.
According to Webb ,any scholarships that are given are good for the entire academic calender and do not become free again until after the winter term. So whatever walk-ons given a scholarship, attrition (Stonum), their scholarships do not become available until May. That is a problem if you give enough walk-ons a scholarship to be at the 85 player limit.
Arnett desired to take classes in the winter term, and MSU was not sitting at 85 and had a scholarship available to give him.
However, scholarship issue aside, his WR coach at Tennessee is now on staff at MSU, so it seems like something that was probably in the works for awhile.
Charlie Baggett is not on staff at MSU.
I love Molk. Molk is the best. Molk for President.
However, I am not sure Barwis is accurate when he suggested Molk "dominate[d]" the Sugar Bowl. As one might assume, I suspect Molk's injury very much affected his play--which is only like duh. In fact, I just went ahead and laid most of the offensive struggles from that game at the feet of Molk's broken... foot. It makes me feel better to assume as much.
I would be perfectly happy for someone to prove me wrong.
Sounds like something a UFR for the game would solve rather easily
Eat. A. Lemon!
Eat. A. Lemon!
Eat. A. Lemon!
Seriously. Do it! That lemon statement totally jinxed Michigan's recruiting (has anything good happened since then?) and the only way to reverse the curse is by ritually eating a lemon.
Eat. A. Lemon!
Eat. A. Lemon!
Eat. A. Lemon!
Don't understand this:
"Also: no, Yuri Wright did not get expelled for some frickin' tweets. That does not happen."
Wright's coach is on record as saying that's exactly why he was expelled.
"He was expelled from the school for the things he had written on Twitter," Toal told ESPNNewYork.com. "It was pretty simple really, what he wrote were some graphic sex things. This is a Catholic school, things like that cannot happen. It was totally inappropriate."
Do we have some reason to think Wright's coach is wrong?
I have no inside info on this, but I do know a lot of Bosco alums as well as some faculty, current students and parents, and it seems to me there were almost certainly some aggravating factors. It's likely Toal told the truth, just not the whole truth.
I confess, I am a little taken aback by the hysterical and persistent it wasn't the tweets! movement. I understand that Michigan fans are supposed to hate the author of the Yuri Wright twitter article. That's fine. I agree to hate that guy. But I think it's silly for us to bend over backwards to ignore any evidence that the tweets might have mattered to someone. You say the tweets were a reason he was dismissed but not the only reason. I believe that. But I think being a full IWTT truther (denying that even his hs cared) is a bridge too far.
There were reportedly some other classroom-related issues, but he was told to stop tweeting stuff like that and kept on doing it. He was given repeated warnings, so I think that was a big part of it.
i think that's wrong. he reportedly had fine grades.
its a good way to annoy a Sparty fan by simply suggesting that grades is why he picked the easier school.
No sense letting the truth get in the way of a good (funny) theory.
The lesson that everyone should learn is that Brady Hoke isn't god. Everyone loses more recruiting battles than they win. (except urban Meyer). I'm joking, but it seems that way lately. Michigan will have a top 10 class and that's elite regardless of who you are. However, I think some Michigan fans are disappointed for two reasons mainly. Michigan had a chance to finish with a top three class and possiblly the number one class. If Michigan would have landed Wright/Reeves, Garnett, Payton/Diggs, Diamond/Kozan, and Dunn it would have been at least 2 if not 1 in the country. The second reason why some fans are pissed is that Ohio will have the best class in the B10. Despite a bowl ban, probation, and all the negativity that surrounded the program because of the scandal they still were better than us.
mean we have to stop talking about Urban?
If not, he was probably the only one who could've pulled off this class for osu. Dang his acid reflux, dang his retiring, dang his having a job he could get out of to go to osu, dang osu not getting a multi-year bowl ban, dang miami and psu over-shadowing osu's violations....argh.
Oh well, let's just beat them on the field. We should still have a higher-ranked class this year than a number of the previous years; if Hoke & Co. can continue to develop them and get the most out of them as they have this past year, we should be fine (fingers crossed).
The only downside to this is ESPN will rehire him on the Stephen A. Smith principle: ESPN hates us as much as America hates Craig James and knows we can't change the channel.
This is 172% the reason I am in favor of his candidacy. He probably won't bother me if he's in congress. He will bother me if he's on ESPN.
what, you want congress to make it legal to bury five hookers alive?
The first thing I see on this site isn't Sullinger's face anymore.
Don't have enough points to post ... did anyone happen to read this?
Craig was calling Leach DURING GAMES from the pressbox to get his son, Adam, in the game. Adam was approached by Leach regarding voicemails Craig had left the coach. Adam begged Leach not to play the voicemails in front of the team.
I think SBB outed themselves as "not exactly a rock of journalistic credibility" awhile ago. I wouldn't take anything they post as reality until you get confirmation from multiple other sources.
OP, your table for CCHA standings may/may not have some issues. According to USCHO the table should read:
Ferris 11-6-3-1 37 Points
Miami 11-9-2-1 36 Points
Ohio 10-7-5-1 36 Points
Western 10-7-3-3 36 Points
LSSU 9-9-4-4 35 Points
ND 10-7-3-0 33 Points
MICH 9-7-4-1 32 Points
MSU 8-9-3-2 29 Points
NMU 7-8-5-2 28 Points
Alaska 6-12-4-2 24 Points
BG 3-13-4-3 16 Points
He's been using that format, which accounts for the difference in games played, for a while now.
Count me in with the sky is not falling, all is well, this is a good character and good talent class coming in. However, the frustration is totally understandable.
Ever Since Chesson committed this has been the stream of news regarding recruiting/team makeup for 2012.
-Yuri Wright tweets and plays his way out of a recruitment
-Stonum gets pulled over and kicked off
-Arnett to STAEE
-Caleb Stacey decommits
-Weekend of pain
This could definitely be going better.
Seems we're begging for some good news here and I hope they find some signing day surprises or good depth guys who can contribute. Something tells me Diamond is going to follow the whole being intrigued by the SEC thing and head south, so I'm not sure where the spectacular news is going to come from, but it would be nice to see them fill out the class with a few under-the-radar/late bloomer types and then go get 'em early for 2013 the way they did for 2012.
We clearly are the freckle faced girl-next-door of college football programs. You have to patiently grow to love us over time.
We're not able to show up at your doorstep out of nowhere and make you change your life's plans.
Not like that slut down in Columbus.
Which is why we have to go for the stable, patient guy down the block who'd jump at a chance to go out with us and subsequently treat us like a queen aka the guys I keep trying to get my sister to date.
she is easy.
Also forgot the frustration of watching Urban come in, flip all of the good PSU guys and basically ensure Ohio won't feel any after-effects of the NCAA penalties.
The last couple months have never felt quite right with regard to our remaining targets. Too much hesitation, too much "50-50" reporting. Anybody else feel that way?
On the bright side, Diamonds can be forever.
Henry may have just gone Blue. (Per twitter).
I'll admit that when Arnett said he'd transfer to Michigan or Michigan State, I thought it was deliberate, to leave egg on the face of the other. Wasn't Arnett a Michigan fan growing up?
The Michigan vs. CC PWR comparison, as mentioned by Brian, will boil down to the TUC (Teams Under Consideration) comparison. Presently CC sits at 8-6-1 (.5667) and Michigan is 11-9-4 (.5417), thus CC wins the deciding comparison (they are tied for the other two, which are very unlikely to change). BUT, how this shakes out will not only depend on how each team plays against their future TUC opponents, but how the ever-present TUC-cliff plays out in regards to their previous TUC opponents (to read more about the TUC-cliff: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/info/?d=pwcrpi ). Essentially, only teams above .5 in the RPI are considered TUC.
Michigan faces 6 TUC games down the stretch [2 against each of Northern #12 RPI (Rating Percentage Index, one of the comparisons in the Pairwise, not Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute), Miami #13 RPI, MSU #16 RPI- none of them are in danger of falling off the cliff] plus playoffs. Of Michigan's TUC opponents, only Northeastern and Alaska are near the TUC cliff, with RPI's of .5147 and .5005 respectively (Michigan went 0-1 against Northeastern and 1-1 against Alaska).
CC plays 10 TUC games in the remaining regular season schedule (2 against each of Duluth #1 RPI, Denver #15, Nebraska-Omaha #25, Bemidji State #29, and Michigan Tech #30) plus playoffs. Of CC's TUC opponents, UNO, Bemidji, and Tech are all on the cliff, with RPI's of .5118, .5046, and .5039 respectively (CC went 1-1 against UNO, and 2-0 against Bemidji, and has yet to play Tech). In addition, two other CC opponents, St. Cloud and Air Force, are presently below the cliff at .4968 and .4903 respectively (CC went 1-1 against St. Cloud, and 0-1 against Air Force).
In order to win the comparison Michigan wants (other than CC losing and Michigan winning, obvs): Northeastern and Alaska to fall off the cliff, removing their 1-2 record against them; either UNO to split or sweep against CC and stay above the cliff, or get swept and fall below; either Bemidji sweeps CC and stays above, or gets swept or splits and falls below; either Tech sweeps or splits and stays above the cliff, or gets swept and falls off the cliff; Lastly, Michigan is rooting for St. Cloud and Air Force to get above the cliff. Of course, this is all subject to change depending on playoff matchups.
All this to say, I think Michigan has a good chance at flipping the comparison, so long as they play decently well, because, even if CC plays decently too, I foresee CC losing a few of its TUC wins under the cliff as well as potentially gaining a few TUC losses, while Michigan is in less danger of either. Wow that got long- and that's the joy of getting into the nitty gritty of the Pairwise.
You say that no one in our division is recruiting at Hoke's level. But isn't Michigan's ultimate goal not to outrecruit the division, but to outrecruit the entire nation?
I know you have to outrecruit the division, and then the conference, before you can outrecruit the nation (and if necessary the universe). But that is the ultimate goal, right? Tell me you agree.
But in some ways you have to acknowledge that it isn't possible at Michigan to recruit the same way as at Alabama or LSU, with more kids than you have roster space for, or Florida, with a couple of girls in every bed, or OSU with a tattoo in every driveway (#mixed metaphor). You still try and recruit the best kids, on and off the field, in the Country, but realize that the types of talent and classes that get you in the national title hunt every year for half a decade or more has (at least lately) been followed up by a lot of NCAA scrutiny. Or arrests. Or both. That's why the goal is to win the Big Ten Championship (which, if you're winning your division, you have a chance to play for). And if you make it through that undefeated, you have a shot at a National Championship. Then hope in one game, anything can happen. But if you want to recruit and win like Nebraska in the 90's, USC, Bama, LSU, Florida, OSU...expect some other problems along the way. Because they all had them. We haven't had any untainted dynasties in college football in a looonnnggg time.
Obviously, everyone would like to have the bestest recruiting class in the whole, entire world (sorry, universe) but I can only recall Michigan doing that once since I've been a fan.
Otherwise, I guess I don't see your point.
Michigan has a really good recruiting class. I'm not going to go jump off a cliff because there are more highly rated recruiting classes in college football. Out recruiting your division means you're out recruiting the teams that will make up most of your schedule.
Tthe ulitmate goal is to win football games.
Sorry, this was a lame, failed attempt at Drew Sharp satire (from the initial Hoke press conference). I needed to lay it on a little thicker for it to have any chance of being effective. Plus, what I'm making fun of was an exchange that took place over a year ago.
See, it was written much too intelligently for anyone to think of Drew Sharp. Maybe put in some one sentence paragraphs next time.
suggestion: when talking about the Ratings Percentage Index in college hockey, could we call it RPI (YTRPI) and when (if) talking about Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (1954 & 1985 National Champions), call them RPI (NTRPI)?
Confusing to those with short attention spans, that's all.
Loved the linked sparty article at the end. Their athletic director basically admits their students all have ADD. Just think, if they'd gotten ritalin sooner, maybe they could have gone to college! Yeah, probably not.
What did Hockey East do to suddently get 4 teams in the top 6 of the Pairwise??
As I'm sure you know (I've seen you post a lot about hockey), the Pairwise is heavily influenced by a small sample size of non-conference games, as it influences not only Common Opponents, but RPI, Head to Head and TUC's as well. Hockey East has the following records out of conference:
BU: 3-2-0, BC: 4-3-0, Maine: 3-1-1, Merrimack: 4-1-2, UMass Lowell: 5-1-0, Providence: 2-4-1, UMass: 4-2-1, Northeastern: 4-0-1, New Hampshire: 3-3-1, Vermont: 3-4-0, which as a conference adds up to 35-19-7, which is damn good. I would imagine that it is thier non-conference record that is driving their Pairwise dominance.
I guess I was under the impression that the CCHA had far and away the best noncon performance but i haven't actually looked into that