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Unverified Voracity Knows Numbers

By Brian — September 23rd, 2008 at 1:36 PM — 13 comments

A couple site notes: if you're using IE7 and the text runs off the screen, reload. I don't know why this is happening but it appears to be a temporary issue. Also: I planned on getting one half of UFR up today but I discovered this morning that I can't split either torrent I downloaded, and I can't convert them either. Maybe this is an NBC thing? If anyone can help, please send me an email. If I can't figure it out by tonight I'll put them up sans video.

Press conference newsbits won't appear here this week—I'm running a bit behind after spending large chunks of the last three days in a car—but they are up at Michigan Sports Center.

The main takeaways:

  • Ortmann should be okay to play this weekend, but…
  • Dorrestein nicked up his knee and is questionable.
  • Shaw is at full health.
  • Huyge is practicing at guard.
  • Robinson won't play. (Redshirt on its way?)
  • Kick returns are wide open: Trent, Harrison, Cissoko, Odoms, Rogers, Horn, McGuffie, and Shaw were mentioned.

There is an updated depth chart with a distinct lack of "OR": Threet and McGuffie are your starters in writing now, and the rest of the RBs go like so: Shaw, Minor, Grady, Brown. Savoy has been supplanted by Stonum opposite Mathews; Ortmann and Dorrestein are listed as co-starters at left tackle.

Sigh. The second most annoying statistic on the planet is "red zone efficiency." (#1: time of possession.) It has an arbitrary cutoff point and mostly serves to confirm the idea that not scoring is bad. This does not count as enlightening.

But that's not even the worst part. The worst part is that they don't even calculate it right. The NCAA is now tracking the statistic officially. This is how they do it:

The NCAA grades on a percentage basis, and eight teams have a perfect 1.000. They range from undefeated Oklahoma, which is 18-for-18 with 17 touchdowns and one field goal in three games to winless North Texas, which has reached the opponents' 20 only five times in three games and has three touchdowns and two field goals.

Argh. No, no, no. If you are really attempting to measure who the best teams are when the field shrinks—not a completely crazy thing to do—you probably shouldn't come up with this equation:

TD = FG

AKA "3 = 7." Three does not equal seven. Three equals three.

The current system suggests that Northwestern and Oklahoma are equally proficient at scoring when they get inside the twenty. Sanity notes that Northwestern is acquiring 75% of the maximum points and Oklahoma is acquiring 96% and these are nowhere near equal.

Ding for them. Meanwhile, Badger redshirt freshman John Clay is questionable for Saturday:

According to a source, redshirt freshman tailback John Clay missed practice time before the players were given off for the bye week and did not practice again Sunday because of an apparent injury.

His status appears uncertain for the Michigan game. The players generally are given Monday off before going through had practices on Tuesday and Wednesday.

PJ Hill and Zach Brown are healthy so it probably won't be much of a factor.

I wave my wand and poof. UMHoops has an extensive recruiting update on the basketball team worth checking out. Michigan is still looking for another 2009 player; anyone they pick up will probably be a low-rated guy destined for role-player-dom. Its 2010 and 2011 where the magic is happening, as articles have been flying back and forth about a trio of big recruits who have Michigan at or near the top of their list: PF Nate Lubick, SG Trey Zeigler, and 2011 combo guard Brandon Kearney.

Lubick and Zeigler are scheduled to visit in the near future; PG commit Darius Morris was supposed to come in for his official at that time too but had to reschedule. Meanwhile, Kearney and Zeigler know each other and talk about attending the same school. Kearney's got ties to both MSU and Michigan—Braylon is his cousin.

And then there's PA SG Cameron Ayers, current the #55 player in the class of 2010 to Rivals:

Favorites: “I like Georgetown [and] Michigan so far. That’s really it.”

Morris was the first step, an indication Beilein can acquire high-rated talent, and there are three or four guys who could come in over the next few classes that would put Michigan's talent level on par with anyone in the league. Someone's got to jump first, though.

Wheeee. Our scheduling outside of Notre Dame is going to suck forever. Evidence:

Michigan has contacted Delaware regarding paying a visit to Ann Arbor for a nonconference game, Keeler said. He added it is unlikely Delaware would be interested, since he would prefer a nonconference schedule concentrating on I-AA home games, which can earn Delaware as much as most I-A road games and give the Hens a much better chance at winning.

I guess the pitch there is "see Michigan play a team that looks just like Michigan! The spring game… except it costs like 80 bucks!"

Etc.: Urban hates clock rules; being Carlos Brown… kind of lame.

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September 23rd, 2008 at 1:56 PM | Red Zone Numbers (Score:1)
Doctor Sardonicus
Joined: 09/18/2008
MGoPoints: 30

I've always felt that red zone scoring should be evaluated based on average points per red zone possession.  For simplicity's sake, I'd just award 7 points for a TD and of course 3 for a FG.

 

Oklahoma would thus be 17*7 = 119 + 3 = 122 in 18 red zone possessions, or 6.8 points per possession, which is astounding.  I'm guessing 5 is a more typical average. 

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September 23rd, 2008 at 2:35 PM | red zone (Score:1)
jamiemac
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7490

One thing worth mentioning is that in our first 2 games, our Defense was faced with 5 first and goal situations.

And, they allowed 1 TD, 3 FGs and forced a turnover. That is pretty solid.

The ND game changed that. I think they had 3 different first and goal situations and all three equaled TDs.

Help My Friend Allison Fight ALS 

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September 23rd, 2008 at 2:36 PM | screw our scheduling. (Score:1)
matty blue
matty blue's picture
Joined: 08/01/2008
MGoPoints: 235

college football scheduling has become a complete freaking farce.

the ncaa could solve this - six home games, six away games, no games against 1-aa.  presto. 

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September 23rd, 2008 at 2:51 PM | CMU, EMU, Toledo (Score:1)
Mat
Mat's picture
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 776

would still get to play UofM.  UofM would  just ask for a higher share of road gate than others and EMU would ablige because they could charge $80/ticket and know they have a sell out.

 It would create more quality matchups but it wouldn't fix the problem of scheduling chumps because teams would get around the home game issue.  It would just cost UofM a lot of money.

If you want better games you have to move to a resume-based ranking system that rewards team for quality wins more than punishing for losses.  Losses should be nearly ignored in favor of ranking by quality win resume.

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September 23rd, 2008 at 2:57 PM | I think that TV networks (Score:1)
Hannibal.
Hannibal.'s picture
Joined: 09/09/2008
MGoPoints: 2163

I think that TV networks could solve the problem by tying ratings to the values of their TV contracts.  Make the conferences accountable for scheduling a bunch of shitty games that nobody wants to watch and you might start seeing watchable matchups again.

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September 23rd, 2008 at 2:39 PM | A Portend? (Score:1)
Yostal
Yostal's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 2713

Is this a sign that, perhaps, the 12th game is not all it is cracked up to be?  Michigan want, reasonably, to schedule as many home games as possible (this goes back to Don Canham trying to convince Northwestern to move a UMich/NU game at Dyche in the 1970s to Michigan Stadium because it would draw better.) and the fact that Michigan Stadium is such a cash cow that playing road games hurts the bottom line.

Are we going to need to see situations in odd numbered years where Michigan tries to find a situation where it can get a 2 for 1 contract where the 1 will be hosted at a larger NFL stadium (ideas include Rutgers at the New Meadowlands, North Texas/Baylor at the new Cowboys Stadium, Rice/Houston at Reliant, Wake Forest/UNC/Duke/NC State at Bank of America in Charlotte, etc.)  It seems to have worked for Northern Illinois, why not give Michigan's large alumni base in places like Texas or New York City a chance to see Michigan live?

Craig Barker || The Hoover Street Rag || Twitter

"The Michigan fanbase: a cynical, Eeyorish bunch even in the best of times."

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September 23rd, 2008 at 4:05 PM | I'd love to see that but (Score:1)
Brian
Brian's picture
Joined: 05/26/2008
MGoPoints: 46896

I'd love to see that but everything I hear about Michigan's scheduling indicates that they will *never* go on the road in the noncon to a place that isn't ND. Which... come on!

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September 23rd, 2008 at 2:46 PM | Scheduling..... (Score:1)
jamiemac
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7490

.....I have a question about next year's schedule.

Namely....who is on it?

mgoblue.com just shows our league schedule for next year. From cross referencing at ND's site, I see the ND game is on 9/12....but what about our other three OOC games?

Does anyone know have those games been scheduled at all......or we still negotiating with teams........and, for the record, I vote 'no' on scheduling Delaware.

Help My Friend Allison Fight ALS 

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September 23rd, 2008 at 2:54 PM | WOW! (Score:1)
Mat
Mat's picture
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 776

Mgoblog with unbridled enthusiasm for UofM hoops!

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September 23rd, 2008 at 2:55 PM | Dumbass clock rules (Score:1)
Hannibal.
Hannibal.'s picture
Joined: 09/09/2008
MGoPoints: 2163

Thank God at least somebody is speaking out against the dumbass fucking clock rules  Didn't the NCAA learn its lesson two years ago?  I think this year the clock rules are even worse.  This year so far Michigan is averaging a paltry 62 plays from scrimmage.

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September 23rd, 2008 at 4:07 PM | brian, what programs are (Score:1)
anthem_1
anthem_1's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 75

brian,

what programs are you using to try and convert and/or split the video files.

what format is the file currently in, and what would you like to convert to?

i have found that winff: http://code.google.com/p/winff/

is able to handle the conversion of pretty much everything i have thrown at it. plus very simple - drag, drop, convert. no real fiddling with settings necessary.

virtualdub has always been simple program for editing video clips.

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September 24th, 2008 at 12:01 AM | if the idea of the winged (Score:1)
bluetell
bluetell's picture
Joined: 07/03/2008
MGoPoints: 2935

if the idea of the winged helmet was to be able to see receivers downfield would both teams passing attacks be completely ineffective if we played delaware? lets try and find out

Rudy watches inspirational movies about Shawn Hunwick

 

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