Unverified Voracity Drops By Half Comment Count

Brian

Harbaugh hanging out with Rich Eisen. 24 minutes:

Remarkable how much different Harbaugh is when he's talking with a person he's comfortable with.

Rashan hype. Jourdan Lewis is impressed:

“You should see Rashan move,” Lewis said this week. “He’s very, very light on his feet. He and (nose tackle) Bryan Mone, it’s crazy. You should see them on the ladder drills. Oh my goodness, it’s unbelievable. At that size, you can’t teach stuff like that. It’s mind-blowing.”

Mone is listed in the spring roster at 6-foot-4, 320 pounds, while Gary is 6-5 and pushing 300 pounds.

The ladder drill develops footwork and quickness.

“It’s about how clean you are, and they barely touch that ladder,” Lewis said. “They are really fast on the ladder, and it’s really crazy.”

Hooray for that. Also hooray for quotes in the offseason. What sorcery is this?

Zordich's impact. We heard a ton about Greg Jackson a year ago but no so much about Zordich. Lewis offers up some praise for Michigan's second-year DBs coach:

“When Coach Zordich got here, he really broke it down for us. We have to know every formation by name. He has specific names for formations and we’ve got to know them. That’s the standard. Technique always has to be precise, because that’s the difference between a pick and a reception. I had knowledge of the game and knew when I could do certain things. But when he came in and he showed us these different formations and tricks when you see different looks, it has really helped my game. He’s been a huge part of our development as players.”

Before Zordich and Jackson came in Michigan's DBs coaches were a linebackers coach and Mike Curt Mallory, who Michigan wanted to get rid of but Hoke held onto because he was excessively nice.

I have a lot of problems with you people. The Michigan Scout board recently had a kerfuffle about ranking in the aftermath of Dylan McCaffrey dropping out of their top 100 in aftermath of the Opening. I shrug at that, like, opinion, man. I think whoever doubts a guy with the last name McCaffrey playing quarterback for Jim Harbaugh is eventually going to look real dumb, but it's just one dude.

I do have a thing that bugs me about Scout's rankings.

ce8ddb37fc222f4de53e4a61ceefb55e_crop_north

That is a map of NFL players by home state. Scout's Midwest region consists of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Kentucky. Collectively those states provide 260 NFL players, 16% of the league's total membership. While college rankings aren't direct NFL projections, all the sites admit that it plays a large role since they're so often judged on their ability to project guys to the league. Meanwhile football players are generally good or not good; serious disagreements between spread-heavy colleges and the pros are mostly limited to 5'10" quarterbacks and slot receivers. For the other 95% of players NFL counts are an excellent proxy for ideal recruiting rankings.

Scout has a top 300; by NFL reckoning this means that approximately 48 players in the Midwest should make that list. This no longer happens. You have to go back to 2014 to get a representative sample of 47 Scout 300 members from their Midwest region. Since there has been a steady and unexplained decline. There were 39 Midwest Scout 300 players in 2015, 38 in 2016, 29 in 2017, and 27 in their early 2018 rankings. Scout has made no effort to explain why they believe the number of future NFL players in the Midwest has dropped 50% in just four years. Talent fluctuates year to year but that's not a fluctuation—it's four straight years of decline, a severe one in 2017 and 2018.

And while I'm on the subject of recruiting ranking things that bug me. Most every year sees 3-6 kickers and punters drafted. The top end guys should get four stars.

Other adventures in Michigan's turnover luck last year. Per LSU blog And The Valley Shook, PBUs convert into interceptions at a relatively reliable rate:

Interception rate is a lot more steady. Last year, defenses intercepted 19.14% of the passes they defended. The average team defended 63.07 passes and had 12.07 picks. The 2014 rate was 21.44%, so we're looking at a fairly constant twenty percent rate. Still, we'll use the 2015 average rate of 19.44%.

Michigan had 55 PBUs a year ago and ten interceptions so that's very close to on point. It's really the lack of fumbles forced that made Michigan's defense lag TO expectations a year ago.

Rule changes. There aren't many new rules this year. You've probably heard about coach ejections being a thing now. They're probably not an actual thing, though:

The NCAA Football Rules Committee has brought football in line with other intercollegiate sports and increased the accountability a coach has in maintaining decorum. Just as with a player, a coach is now disqualified if he collects two unsportsmanlike conduct fouls during a game.

IIRC Bo Pelini did get hit with two unsportsmanlike flags in one game. That's the only instance I can remember in which this rule would actually get deployed. Even the infamous Will Muschamp rage only resulted in a single flag.

The other change of interest to Michigan fans is a clarification of the rules on sliding to the ground:

Rules-makers continue to expand the scope of targeting. Now they will protect any ball carrier who slides feet-first, giving sliding players the kind of protection they've had in the NFL, as some have advocated. If a defender makes "forcible contact" to the head or neck of a runner who has "given himself up," the defender will incur a 15-yard penalty for his team and be disqualified for at least the remainder of the game.

Jake Rudock took two or three nasty head shots on feet-first slides a year ago. Harbaugh actually changed the way he taught sliding as a result, with Rudock falling forward a couple of times in the bowl game. This year anyone blowing up a QB who's going to the ground will get booted, which kind of sucks for defenders expecting to tackle a ball-carrier instead of a guy sliding into second. No word on whether getting blocked into the QB after a play is still an ejection.

I call it trips TE. MMQB breaks down the "Y-iso" formation. Y-iso isolates your pass-catching tight end:

ISO3

That's Greg Olsen to the bottom of the screen, and he'll catch that corner route for a big chunk as Richard Sherman bails for the inside slot receiver's deep route.

Y-iso snaps have doubled in the last four years of the NFL and with Jake Butt on the roster and Harbaugh's million NFL contacts, not least his brother, there's a good chance you see a significant dose of this in 2016. The rationale given for the formation certainly applies:

“If a team played man, your tight end is gonna get a safety or a linebacker on him and all the corners are gonna go over there and match up on the receivers,” Smith explains. “The tight end has to be talented enough to win that. That has to be a match up you want, depending on the team you’re playing. There’s probably not many of those match-ups that we don’t look at as favorable with Kelce. He’s that kind of player.”

The number of players with the speed to keep up with Butt and the frame to challenge him on balls up high is vanishingly small.

FWIW, I don't think Michigan lined up with the TE split out like this last year; when they ran this it was Butt in a three-point stance.

Mostly right but when you're wrong whoah buddy. ESPN publishes an "all-century" team that cops out on QB by listing Denard Robinson as an all-purpose player. It's mostly right, though it does that annoying thing where you list two running backs, no fullbacks, and two wide receivers. Also they list three corners and one safety. Marlin Jackson is one of those corners and he did play safety as a junior so whatever man. Errors as I see them:

  • Bennie Joppru over Jake Butt. Joppru did have a big senior season; Butt just about matched it last year and is set to shatter the all-time TE receiving mark held by Jim Mandich.
  • Gabe Watson over Mike Martin. I defend Watson endlessly to people disappointed in his two-time All Big Ten first team career, but Martin was far more impactful. Watson occupied guys; Martin blew through them.
  • Shawn Crable over David Harris. Harris is an all-timer MLB. Crable's nutty 28.5 TFL season in 2007 was as a defensive end, and I'm still taking Woodley and Graham over him.
  • Ernest Shazor over most Michigan safeties in the past 16 years. Big play factory largely responsible for Braylonfest having to be Braylonfest. Did murder that Purdue WR, then fell off a cliff. Prefer Jarrod Wilson.

Etc.: Feldman names Michigan the #4 secondary in the country; no anonymous coach quotes this time. CU athletes refer to their academic center as "the Plantation" and CU's president is talking about why they do this and how to address their grievances. New letter jackets for female letterwinners have gone out. Jibreel Black doing a ton of volunteer work. "The Ballad of the Sloop John Belein."

Comments

Brian Griese

July 18th, 2016 at 12:54 PM ^

site membership, so I'm just guessing here, but do you think the problem with them skewing their "top xxx" lists towards the south is due to the fact they've skewed most of their talent evaluators in that direction? If so, your stats clearly show they're wrong.  

Lanknows

July 18th, 2016 at 2:10 PM ^

The NFL data are for 2014 and are consistent with the 2014 recruiting rankings.  There is no data beyond that for the NFL, so the data can not be shown to be inconsistent. 

What Scout is doing (effectively) is making a prediction that the midwest is going to decline. Is that prediction nefarious, incompetant, easily explained by variance, maybe even based on evidence?

Census data indicate that the midwest has a declining share of the population (though that hardly explains going all the way from 48 to 29). 21% of the population is from the Midwest (per census) compared to 16% of NFL talent.  The geography is probably different, but it introduces a plausible argument that the midwest has less talent per capita.  Are these static data or are they indicative of trends? What if the number of Midwest guys in the NFL was a lot higher in the past and the number has fallen steadily?

I would say the lists for 2017 and 18 are worth watching for potential regional bias, but it's so early and far from conclusive that anything dubious is going on.

Rabbit21

July 18th, 2016 at 2:17 PM ^

Well, one possible explanation is that the chart is for states where guys were born and not where they played High School ball.  Given the demographic shift in the country as a whole to the South, that could be one part of it.  The other may be that a lot of the guys out of Wisconsin and Minnesota may be OL, which are tough to project and don't necessarily get the Top 300 rankings.  When it comes to NFL players you're also looking at a trailing indicator.

This is all spitballing, but I don't see the mismatch between the chart and the recruiting rankings as being much of an indicator that there's something funny going on.

Edit: As an aside, I can't believe I agree with Lanknows about something.

Bando Calrissian

July 18th, 2016 at 1:08 PM ^

Didn't Bo get dinged for two 15-yarders at once during his epic tirade in Iowa City in 1988? Watching the film, it's amazing a guy who had heart surgery less than a year earlier could essentially blow every gasket in his body, spike the headset, run twenty yards on the field, and completely lose his mind on the official and not fall over on the spot.

EDIT: Here it is, 28:30:

Pepto Bismol

July 18th, 2016 at 1:14 PM ^

Expanding targeting to any feet-first-sliding ball carrier seems like a bad idea.  I understand the idea, but too many QBs like to slide underneath tacklers late and referees are forced to err on the side of player protection with late hit flags.  And it's always high contact to the head and neck because the runner's lower half slides underneath the tackler.  

I predict some pretty unreasonable ejections based on this change.

dragonchild

July 18th, 2016 at 1:29 PM ^

"Err on the side of player protection"?

I get the general point, but it's kind of hard for me to give any farts about the change.  Rudock couldn't get a targeting call if a defender swung a sledgehammer at his head.  And that was our QB.  Smith's unlikely to slide ever, but even if he did it'd take someone running him over with a cement mixer to get a targeting call.

Then again, come to think of it our linebackers will now probably have to play two-hand touch to avoid getting ejected.

ijohnb

July 18th, 2016 at 1:41 PM ^

like the overall formal of how they call targeting.  They make the call of the field, Unnecessary Roughness with Targeting, and then review the video to confirm or reverse the targeting.  For officials who are trained to look at video for "irrefutable video evidence" to overturn something, they nearly always confirm the targeting and the ejection even when the video shows that it was likely not a targeting act. 

The referees should be at liberty to call unnecessary roughness, generally, without the need to originally call it targeting or not.  Then they should check the tape to determine if any further action is warranted against the player. (I don't think Bolden or Ross would have been ejected if the refs did not have to make a targeting decision before reviewing the video) There are many instances in which a defensive player commits a reckless act that he should be penalized for, even if the act cannot be properly categorized.  However, typically there is no intent to injure, or very little chance of injury occuring, and that act does not warrant a suspension.

In other words, the 15 yards is punishment enough in nearly all circumstances.  The targeting/ejection call should be reserved for the most blatant, dangerous occurences where injury was intended or at least likely.  It should not be called every time James Ross gets a little too amped and reminds some dude who's boss.

Hail Harbo

July 18th, 2016 at 5:35 PM ^

What galls me is when the unnecessary roughness penalty is predicated upon targeting and the review says there was no targeting, the 15 yard penalty still stands.  To me, totally mind bottling.

Next thing that galls me, but just a bit less, though they are included in the rule, the next offensive player ejected for targeting may well be the first ever.

Last, but certainly not least, are the targeting calls against D players which only became targeting because the offensive player intentionally lowered themselves into the path of the tackler's attempt.

ijohnb

July 18th, 2016 at 8:52 PM ^

a targeting call is reversed but the penalty still stands. I think unnecessary roughness can happen without targeting and should be rightly penalized, but it is the suspension for targeting that is overkill. In most circumstances, the suspension is what is completely unjustified.

dragonchild

July 18th, 2016 at 2:49 PM ^

I got real tired of defenders mauling Rudock's noggin and getting away with it.  That better not carry into this season's QB but I fear the worst.

I don't suspect an anti-Michigan or pro-whoever bias so much as I susect the refs HATE Harbaugh.  He's verbally abusive to them, that's not good but he's hardly the only one, but he's usually right, and refs -- like most proud folk -- don't like being shown up.  But the answer here isn't to literally put players in danger, because by swallowing their whistles that's basically declaring open season on winged helmets.  I mean for fuck's sake the UM Athletic Department took a well-deserved grilling for their incompetence in keeping Shane Morris safe (which, BTW, that hit wasn't called for targeting either but IIRC that game otherwise wasn't out of whack).  Well, the refs are culpable if we have a targeting rule but they only use it to stick it to Harbaugh by ejecting his middle linebacker.

The targeting rule may be stupid, but it's punitive for a reason, and I don't see anything remotely professional about how it's used.

Mr Miggle

July 18th, 2016 at 4:29 PM ^

He was new to the Big Ten. Maybe that was why we got the short end of too many calls. However, that style of coaching has worked for many other coaches. Bobby Knight surely got a lot of favorable calls. I could make a long list of others in BB. Bo got a lot of calls too - from the Big Ten refs. There was a thought that refs in bowl games treated him differently. He was new to them and they were out to make a point.

Harbaugh isn't new to the sport. If what he does was backfiring over the years, he would have adapted his style. I think he understands the guys who rarely say anything don't get the best calls. Nor do I think the guys who complain every single time. It helps to be right a lot. You want the refs to respect you and fear your wrath too.

kevin holt

July 18th, 2016 at 1:59 PM ^

Wait I don't understand the change. There was protection last year too right? Or does this mean they only protected QBs before whereas now the rule applies to any ballcarrier?

If the latter, then I'm in favor of that change. As long as it's called consistently. And maybe you should have to somehow declare your intention to slide far enough in advance. I don't know how to have a compromise there. Maybe if it's not clear that the player could have stopped then it shouldn't be an ejection.

Edit: Just had an idea. What if there were a 5-yard penalty on the offense for sliding too late?

Sione For Prez

July 18th, 2016 at 2:23 PM ^

Previously there was no protection to any ball carrier when they slid. College considered you down once you hit the ground and doesn't take into account if you were "giving yourself up" by sliding or not. Which is why we saw some of the hits on sliding QB's go uncalled.

IMO sliding was the worst play you could make as a ball carrier becuase you get no benefit being considered given up and your head is just asking to get bounced off the turf like a basketball. Diving, as Rudock began doing in the bowl game, essentially does the same thing as a slide but gives him a chance to protect his head and upper body from a big blow.

In the NFL I believe you are considered down as soon as you initiate a slide which in theory takes the guessing game out of the defenders mind. I'm hoping this new rule change does the same for college.

Sergeantturnip

July 18th, 2016 at 1:32 PM ^

Makes me happy that Gallon got first team, he is still so under appreciated. I don't know if he was actually better than Avant though, maybe just had more balls thrown to him




Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

ijohnb

July 18th, 2016 at 1:52 PM ^

think because Manningham was essentially a "skinny Braylon," they may have wanted the second to be more of a kind of slot-ish player.  However, if that is the case, I think Marquise Walker was probably better than Gallon also though he admitted did not have the same kind of numbers.

funkywolve

July 18th, 2016 at 1:41 PM ^

Hey Brian

How good of a blocker was Joppru?  You criticize Butt a decent amount for his lack of blocking when it comes to the TE support in the running game.

Space Coyote

July 18th, 2016 at 1:46 PM ^

Most teams have a base defense and then they have change-ups to that defense. A cover 4 team will have a trap coverage or play MOD/MEG at different times. A cover 2 team will play straight cover 2, then trap, then quarters and sink on the quarter route. Etc.

Most teams only employ a couple checks for handling trips, and while that check may change based on opponent, you won't likely progress through a game not knowing what to expect. That's why I love trips, because it forces the defense to become predictable.

That's a bit different in the NFL, with more practice time, but the theory still applies. In the case for that article, Sherman is known for undercutting the #3 crossing, which is a huge threat out of trips. Knowing that he does that allows you to have a China concept on the short side of the field and overload the weak side of the coverage (Sherman's side) and high low a LB or safety. Easy pickings.

Other teams will just go to a straight man. They may keep their CB over to defend the Y. Well now you have a CB covering a TE, and can take advantage of that matchup either by utilizing the TE's body in the pass, or utilizing the TE as a blocker in the run game.

Too often, trips gets looked at for its benefits on the trips side of the ball. But the isolation on the backside of the formation is often just as dangerous, if not more, because of how the defense is forced to rotate their coverage and become more predictable to cover the trips. Harabugh has utilized a lot of trips in the past, and I expect him to keep doing so, whether the TE is in a 3-point, 2-point, or part of the bunch inside the trips.

dragonchild

July 18th, 2016 at 2:39 PM ^

Too often, trips gets looked at for its benefits on the trips side of the ball. But the isolation on the backside of the formation is often just as dangerous, if not more, because of how the defense is forced to rotate their coverage and become more predictable to cover the trips.

Agreed, but the OC & HC have to be comfortable with the QB looking to that side of the field.  I love me a QB that can read the entire field, but that's not something to take for granted at the college level (hell, I swear some pro QBs drop reads off their radar).  Just because they can see the backside doesn't mean their brain's there.  It looks to me they just glance (if they glance at all), see a "covered" receiver (never mind that's a 5'8" CB covering a 6'7" TE) and forget the backside entirely.  Probably shy about resetting their feet for that lone receiver in case a DE's about to break through the pocket.  Defenses will roll with a mismatch precisely because they can sometimes get away with it.

But yeah, if you've got a QB who can exploit the iso -- and Harbaugh will always want that guy -- then yeah, let's make the defense feel some pain.

JGonzo

July 18th, 2016 at 5:36 PM ^

There was def. a Y-iso package in SF with Vernon Davis, although it was as much about loading the FS over to the trips side and getting Kapernick into space on the boot as anything else. My guess is that Rudock's perceived lack of ability on the move (he isunderrated, but it's hard not to be when you're rated as a lead-footed zero) probably made the package less intriguing.

Also, putting Butt's hand in the dirt allows a chip on the DE/OLB and that makes a major difference when the line was as green/suspect as last year. 

robpollard

July 18th, 2016 at 2:16 PM ^

Wow.



Somehow, I'd never heard that number. That's insane. Heck, Ndamukong Suh had 'only' 20.5 TFLs during his all-world senior season (though obviously he was double-teamed more) and Brandon Graham had 'only' 26 TFLs during his super-duper senior year.  I remember Woodley, Branch, Harris and Hall much more from that 2007 team than Crable; heck, the biggest thing I remember from Crable in 2007 is him hitting Troy Smith out of bounds (which is obviously unfair).



...and on a related note, while Googling Mr. Crable, I learned he is now a Coordinator of Parent Engagement at an Early Child Development center in his hometown of Canton. As he states, not what you'd expect of someone who was an all-star recruit who was drafted into the NFL, but he seems to be enjoying it, as he's been there for three years now. Good luck to him.

http://www.indeonline.com/article/20130913/NEWS/309139864

https://www.linkedin.com/in/shawn-crable-39675644

 

JeepinBen

July 18th, 2016 at 3:01 PM ^

I used to love that picture. I've definitely posted it on here before. As we've learned more and more about head trauma and former athletes killing themselves (Seau, NHL fighters, etc) the less I can enjoy that picture. At this point I see it and I hope that Morelli doesn't have CTE in a decade.

(Sorry for the Debbie Downer)

Steves_Wolverines

July 18th, 2016 at 2:33 PM ^

But Tom Dienhart over at BTN just ranked his Top 10 B1G D-Linemen. Let's just say his Top 10 is very different from our Draftageddon team.

Link? Link

His Top 10, which are included in the Top 10 DL from Draftageddon:

1-McDowell, 2-Smoot, 3-Wormley, 5-Replogle, 7-Glasgow

Those our Draftageddon team either overlooked, or Dienhart is too high on:

4-Jaleel Johnson (Iowa), 6-Tyquan Lewis (OSU), 8-Demetrius Cooper (MSU), 9-Steven Richardson (Minnesota), 10-Roman Braglio (Maryland)

Those our Draftageddon team were higher on than Dienhart:

Hurst, Mone, Hamilton (Rutgers), Charlton, and Hubbard (OSU)

 

Lanknows

July 18th, 2016 at 2:35 PM ^

QB: Henne

RB: Denard  (strong consideration for the senior version of Perry here for having the full package)

TE:  Joppru  (Butt's not the blocker that Joppru was, but with a great 2016 he could surpass.

WR1:  Edwards

WR2:  Manningham

WR3:  Gallon  [brilliant combination of reliability, awareness, and playmaking]

OL:  Long/Lewan/Hutchinson/Backus/Goodwin [Molk was great but he and Bass were both centers.  Backus and Goodwin were excellent as well and showed to be better players at the next level. Hutchinson or Goodwin can  play center, Backus can swing inside to OG. --Maximizing talent.]

-----------------------------------------------------

Agree with Brian's 3 subs on defense (Martin for Watson, Harris for Crable, and Wilson for Shazor).  Jackson could could play safety.  After this year I think you will be able to remove Foote for Peppers.

 

Lanknows

July 18th, 2016 at 3:58 PM ^

Avants consistent, but he's never even had a 700-yard year in the NFL.  Manningham had 2 in his first 3 years in the league before getting struck down by injuries.

The Avant vs Gallon argument is tougher.  Obviously Avant has a long NFL career and Gallon doesn't, but Gallon had a far more impressive college career. Both are rock-solid reliable, but I like Gallon's versatility and big play potential more and he fits nicely with his slot experience as a complement to Manningham and Edwards.

JayMo4

July 18th, 2016 at 2:44 PM ^

"And while I'm on the subject of recruiting ranking things that bug me. Most every year sees 3-6 kickers and punters drafted. The top end guys should get four stars."

 

Glad I'm not the only weirdo that cares about this.  There are a lot of points that come directly from the kicking game, and a ton more that come indirectly as a result of being able to shift field position (or failure to do so.)  If your kicking game is good enough/bad enough, it can easily turn multiple losses into wins/wins into losses.

For such a consequential position, it seems ridiculous that even the best kicker in the country is lucky to reach 3*, and it's rare that you see anyone at the position above 2*.  There are hundreds of receivers (for example) ranked 3* or better, and several dozen ranked in the 4* range.  It's a minority of them that will ever make the kind of impact an elite kicker will make on his team.

 

I do often hear that kickers are tough to project, and that is why they aren't rated highly even when they're great.  But offensive line is also notoriously hard to predict, and that doesn't stop any of the services from loading up on 4* and 5* linemen.

Lou MacAdoo

July 18th, 2016 at 4:08 PM ^

I thouroughly enjoyed that Harbaugh interview. I wish he could've done the whole three hours with him. He's gotta have just an amazing amount of experiences and stories he could share. What a life he's lived up to now.

It was nice to see him so comfortable with Rich. With other guys he just really seems to be able to see their motives as soon as they start asking their question. He sees right through their crap and has no time for it.