I have to say Rudolph makes me nervous. He was killing us last year. I know we only gave up 10 points last game, but it was still a shaky performance. I thought alot of it was the poor QB play. Saying that, I can't wait til kick-off!
UFR 2010 Errata: UConn
I tried this last year but then dropped off, but I'll try it again: when you write 15k words about a football game people who know more than you are going to point out errors. This will be a collection of items people send me about stuff they think I got wrong; if I'm sticking to my guns I'll mention why, but this is all very complicated so reasonable people will disagree at times.
Chris Brown of Smart Football added some stuff that's not actually a disagreement but it would be a shame for it to molder in the inbox:
1. Michigan ran this play a few times with good success:
It was probably the best "dropback" pass I saw Denard run. I saw him throw both to the outside receiver and to the RB. In your description you called it a "slant" and the RB's route as a "screen," but the concept is called the "snag" concept (or triangle). I'd say it's currently the most popular route combination in the Big 10, as Ohio State, Purdue, Penn State and now Michigan all feature it as a staple play. I discussed it on Smart Football.
On the backside Michigan has some kind of fade/out combo but we'll see if he gives the QB freedom to go that way. It's a good play for Denard (and Terrelle Pryor, for that matter) because it's easily completed.
[Ed: this was the first instance of this route combo in the game; as the game progressed I got a handle on the combo and how frequently it's used. Good to know it's widespread and effective. Robinson completed each instance of the snag for good yardage except once when he threw the flare route when the LB was charging it down, opening up the slant bit.]
2. Denard's worst pass of the game was the bootleg where Roy Roundtree gets lit up. I think you were right that it should have been thrown to the outside receiver in the hole before the safety could get over.
3. The really encouraging thing though is that he followed it up with his best pass of the night [to Grady on third and eleven]. The long fake bubble pass was fun, but this was a college throw. The best part? The play was four verticals (I think you said it was a deep hitch). This wasn't exactly a "read" route but clearly the receiver had freedom to bend it and find the hole, and Denard threw it in the open window -- this wasn't where he was told to throw it, he reacted to the coverage. Great throw.
[Ed: Part of the disconnect here is I usually put down the route instead of the concept; that's something to work on.]
Genuinely Sarcastic's run chart is up and it's mostly in line with mine, though it appears toBrian is less inclined to give out pluses and minuses. He's higher on Molk than Schilling but still high on both, thought Koger was way better than Webb, and gave Omameh a solidly negative –6. Also Denard picks up a –2 but toBrian admits "this is where the metric is flawed." FWIW, I'm handing out pluses when the tailback does something that gains yards past what the blocking sets up.
Some complaints in the comments that I've been too harsh on Ezeh, and a response from Burgeoning Wolverine Star about the play specifically highlighted:
He picture-pages the play, highlighting Kovacs dropping into the deep middle and thus taking himself out of position to fill the hole on the interior.
Here, you can see that Kovacs is still backpedaling, now 4 yards deeper than he was pre-snap. Mouton is being hit by the playside slot receiver. UConn's left guard has now pulled across the formation and is in perfect position to block Ezeh. Ezeh's job here is to plug the hole that Todman is supposed to run through. He does this by hitting that pulling guard. It's then Kovacs' job to come into the play and make the tackle. Unfortunately, Kovacs isn't done backpedaling yet.
I don't know about this one. I pulled the play to highlight a trend I saw all day—Ezeh getting put on his butt—and wasn't really focused on the action of the deep safety. I think BWS is right that I should have minused Kovacs for a late read, which turned this from four or five yards into nine, but a linebacker in that situation needs to keep his feet and look to come off his blocker and tackle, which is something Ezeh managed on UConn's last meaningful(-ish) snap but didn't do the rest of the day. Whatever the responsibilities of the MLB in the 3-3-5, they include staying on your feet.
MGoUser AAL sent in some clarifications as well:
- On a 15-yard dumpoff to the FB (UConn drive 2, play 4), which I said "looked like a busted coverage" but could not tell who it was on: A misalignment and a bust. Michigan is playing Cover 3 behind a weakside zone blitz. First, Kovacs has the boundary third and is absolutely toasted if this ball gets thrown his way. (You can see he was busy trying to get untoasted, too, when Gordon arrives in the frame toward the end before he does.) The de facto OLBs should have curl-to-flat responsibilities and they both take initial curl drops. The curl zone is a greater threat because a pass to the flat takes longer to arrive and the defense can use the sideline to help. For some reason Ezeh is lined up over the center, then aborts his drop at the curl. Roh would be the hook-to-hole guy and takes a really poor drop which is probably due to lack of experience in pass coverage. The #1 receiver to strength runs a hitch, but given how long that ball would take to arrive there is enough time for the CB to recover and for the OLB to rally to the ball.
- On the next play, a 20 yard power run: I’d give Floyd more credit. If he allows himself to be reached, there’s one OL left to block Kovacs and the RB is going to the endzone. On the other hand Ezeh does everything wrong. One of the first things you learn as a LB is not to go underneath blocks. If you do, you have zero chance of making the play. There is a point where Ezeh sees the WR(!) coming to block him and makes that decision anyway. It cannot be more easily demonstrated than the WR doing nothing, but inviting him to go underneath and barely even touching him as he flails to the ground. By doing this, his chance of making the play went from 30% to near 0. [Ed: I did not minus Ezeh at all on this play.]
- On the next play, which was the post thrown to the goal line but low and not dug out: Gordon was very disciplined here. He has the deep middle third and has two verts coming up the hashes. He’s dead center and favoring either is certain death. For some reason Floyd had plenty of depth and doesn’t close down on the WR with the ball in the air. Could be mental/freshman/other mistake. Impossible to say. [Ed: I didn't neg the coverage or Floyd here; I did think Gordon was in position for a potential killshot if the ball was better thrown.
- First play of drive three, the first ball over Carvin Johnson's head, the dropped one: Another manipulation of Cover 3. UConn was using a levels concept into the sideline (deep/intermediate/shallow) to put the deep third and flat defender in a bind. Lots of time to come open when rushing 3. No idea what Gordon is doing. Also, more importantly this: when M was in Cover 3 vs. no width (TE only), Kovacs was playing up on the line and responsible only for running w/ the TE. He is absolutely toasted. [Ed: I gave a –2 to Johnson there; I've heard from other people that even if there's going to be a window there in cover 3, it shouldn't be as large.]
The overall impression is one of deep fear about Kovacs against Notre Dame, especially in his effort of cover Rudolph, though elsewhere AAL says he's not that impressed with ND's TE… when it comes to the NFL. Okay. Relevancy against Kovacs? Eh… not so much.
Elsewhere, the UConn blog takes a look at their first offensive snap, which didn't go well thanks to Cam Gordon.
one thing the blogosphere - and particularly this blog, obvs - dominates the MSM on is acceptance of constructive criticism. a hearty shoutout to you for a post that enhances all of our knowledge.
on the left-hand side of the page. What if we put a list of all M football personnel, THEIR NUMBERS and POSITIONS (or the two deep) over there? That would help those of us who are still learning and don't always know who is being referenced in the videos/UFR play-by-plays, or where to pick them out on the field. Just a glance over to the side would help orient me and hopefully others; sometimes now I either have to reference the two-deep (which I bookmarked) or reluctantly get back to my real work life. This way I could stay here and avoid work longer!
I am learning a great deal from these posts, btw; it really makes the games more fun.
on the right in the USEFUL STUFF drop-down. Cool. NEVER MI-YUND.
My only problem with Obi on this play
was that I thought he should have forced the play to Mouton. Instead, he ran right at the guard's right shoulder, allowing the RB to cut back. Now maybe JFK should have been there, but I'll take my chances forcing the play to Mouton, who is engaged with a spindly slot receiver (no offense, Tree). In my best Bill O'Reilly voice, "tell me where I'm wrong."
We don't know all their assignments, but I don't recall a coach ever telling me to take the inside shoulder of a defender on an outside run, the general theory is you want to funnel guys back to your help not spring them to the sideline. If you listened to Coach Carr talk about the defense on Michigan Replay for more than 30 seconds he would invariably bring up "leveraging the ball" which generally means don't let the ball get outside your help.
Also, it looks so simple on film, but Obi has no idea what is going on with Mouton as he goes to attack the lineman, so he can't try to make a last second adjustment to funnel the ball carrier.
No matter how good this guy Crist actually is, if we don't pressure the QB and take the run game away to some degree, he can sit back there and his guys are going to get open against our secondary.
One good thing about our defense last week definitely was that we were able to make plays at opportune times to keep UConn off the scoreboard. If we can have a few well timed stops/turnovers forced, with an offensive output that even remotely resembles last week, we've got a good chance to win. We don't need to win by 20 again, 1 or 2 points is just fine with me.
kovacs shouldn't back peddle to no mans land, he was still backpeddling as obi was falling to the ground. Read if no play action then its a RUN.
One thing I really enjoyed in the week leading up to and after the UConn game is TheUConnblog's style of self-deprecating humor. From their analysis of the first snap, bemoaning a play design that required two UConn wide receivers to block four collapsing Michigan defenders:
Masters [the left tackle] makes it 3-on-4, theoretically, if he can get to Roh. (Spoiler alert: he can't.)
I find myself chuckling with knowing glee every time I read TheUConnblog.
I think we match up really well against Notre Dame and tomorrow will most definitely prove it. 31-21 Meeeechigan