The Tenuous Case For Keeping Rich Rodriguez

What pushed me over the edge, has been our complete inability to beat anyone worth a damn in the last 3 years. It is sad how entirely predictable our games have become. I look for a sign that shows coaching acumen, one game where we were expected to lose and came out and outschemed an opponent. That hasn't happened once in the last three years. 

Every team we've beaten over the past 3 years, with the exception of the fluky Wisconsin win in 2008, has finished the year with a losing record. Every Single Team. And Wisconsin only finished 2008 7-6. Every team that we expected to lose to, we've gotten pantsed. And every half-decent team we expected to beat like PSU this year, we've still gone in and gotten our asses handed to us. 

I look for a sign, a spark, a something to tell me that this team can go out and beat a good team, but so far we haven't even managed to get lucky against a good team. Bo had OSU in 69, Harbaugh pulled out an upset against SC last year, heck even Danny effin Hope managed to beat OSU. These all foreshadowed better performances in coming years, a sign that of the trajectory the team was going to take (Purdue has been insanely unlucky, with all their skill players not injured, I would have taken them over us this year as well) Our games have sadly gone exactly according to expectation, and in most cases hasn't even been close.

I am sorry, I love Denard, and hoped to hell that RRod and his offense would work out, but I am done believing, and am ready to move on.

The "experience" argument is bullshit for a lot of reasons. 

One is that in 2008, we had a highly experienced defense, and we also had a junior Brandon Graham and sophomore Donovan Warren.  And the defense was terrible.  Absolutely terrible.  48 points to Purdue's true freshman third string wide receiver quarterback.  46 points to Penn State.  Over 300 yards allowed to MSU's shitty quarterback.  Everyone knew that the defense was poorly coached at the time.  That's why Shafer was run out of town with torches and pitchforks.  Everyone knew at the time that it was cataclysmic underachievement.  Now history has been revised and everyone blames "lack of talent".  The one year Shafer debacle has disappeared down the memory hole and the "no talent" meme popped up since then.  Meanwhile, Shafer is the architect of a Syracuse defense that is better than any of Rodriguez's terrible terrible squads.  Shafer obviously wasn't the problem.  Everybody knows this now.  That's why the Rodriguez apologists have shifted to the "no talent left behind by Carr" meme.  It's a shift of "Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia"-ish proportions.

Another reason it's bullshit is that freshman in all sports make mistakes, but they also improve.  That's what young players who are actually being coached well.  They get better.  Michigan is not getting better.  They are getting worse, and the defense has gotten worse as the year has gone along each season of the Rodriguez era.  Mouton has barely improved since Rodriguez got here, and Ezeh has not improved at all.  Furthermore, our freshmen have shown absolutely no bright spots whatsoever.  They have shown no sign whatsoever of having talent, outside of maybe Jibreel Black.  Talented freshmen at least show you flashes and reasons to have hope.  Our freshman have shown none of this whatsoever.  They aren't functional by any measurement.

another reason is that it's not that uncommon for guys with freshmen eligibility to contribute on a defense.  Remember William Petersen and James Whitley?  Both of them made  contributions on our 1997 defense.  They weren't eight miles out of position on every pass play.  They didn't blow every coverage, like our guys do now.  Remember Steve Morrison?  Erik Anderson?  Jarrett Irons?  Marlin Jackson?  Leon Hall?  David Bowens?  The list goes on and on, and it gets even bigger when you talk about sophomores.  We have had lots of freshman contributors over the years.  Contrary to popular belief, it's not unheard of for freshman players to be remotely functional and capable of playing better than a I-AA squad. 

And yet another reason is that it's partially Rodriguez's fault that we are relying totally on freshmen.  It is common knowledge that Rodriguez has touble connecting to the former coach's players and favors his own.  This was confirmed in the interviews with the former WVU players posted here (which weren't even all that negative about RichRod).  No wonder Donovan Warren didn't stick around.  His legendary position coach (who coached Charles Woodson) got kicked to the curb in favor of Rodriguez's buddy Tony Gibson, who has yet to get anything good out of a single player at Michigan.  Rodriguez's only corner recruit of the '09 class was a fiasco, and so was the guy who was supposed to play deep safety.   

doesn't care at all how I feel.

Seriously, I didn't realize until yesterday's semi-meltdown(s) how angry I really was/am about this weekend's performance.  There are no answers to unveil, no relief to give, and no sudden hope where there was none.  At this point, I don't care what has to be done, what has to be changed, who has to be fired, or what has to happen to make us winners again.  AND I'm realistic enough to know that there are far many people out there who have better ideas on how to make this happen than I do.  At the end of the day, we just have to have faith, not in Rich, but in Brandon, to make this damn thing work.

Should the worst-case happen, Denard's destination post-RichRod should be...wherever RichRod goes. I don't want him achieving 60% of his potential just so I can see him in Maize and Blue.

(Q: What's the difference between a Free Press columnist and a message board poster? A: Editors.)

When did we get editors?

Its nice to know that we can usually count on you for a "talk me off this cliff" type post!

Needs a few more notches. We haven't even seen what a real defense with depth will look like under Rich Rod. RR hasn't even had a senior class graduate yet. Next year some of his recruits will be seniors but not all of those players were recruitied by RR, the class was patched together late by RR. Can't we get a full depth chart with all of RR's players before we scream for firing a coach. I'd like to think Michigan fan is more rational than Notre Dame fan but this is getting to the point of becoming embarrassing. Sit back and realize what RR is working with on this defense. Rich Rod isn't the one missing thousands of tackles every Saturday.

Young players improve the most over an off season, not during a season. See Denard as an example. We have a lot of defensive players that are freshman and sophomores that have to be allowed time to develop before the defense can become something decent. If Dave Brandon isn't a complete moron which I tend to believe he is not, then he will at least give Rich Rod a senior class. While it won't be entirely his own players as the senior class he should at least give him next year. I'd be inclined to give RR 2 more years since that would be his first true senior class but then again I have patience and it seems that Michigan fans are lacking in this department for the most part.

Very much appreciate this post.

To start, in my 39 years of living, breathing, walking, talking and being a fan of Michigan football (at least for 34 of those years, since I remember the "decision" taking place in Kindergarten, at age 5), I  was left on Saturday night thinking that the Penn State game (er, defensive debacle) was the most disappointing loss that I can remember. Initially, I thought the Appalachian State game was in the pole position but, as time wore on, I realized I was in shock for a long time after that game and didn't experience the same level of existential angst and pain as this past weekend.

That said, I find myself today still supporting Rich Rodriguez and thinking/believing that, if given time, he can do something pretty special with UM football. The "D" must certainly be improved, and a coaching/philosophy change may definitely be warranted following the season, but I also remember 2-3 months ago thinking that, even under the best of circumstances, our "D" would cost us a few games this year - and after losing (very, very) arguably our best two players in Troy W. and Mike M., not to mention the extreme youth and lack of development/experience, I think we are a long, long way from our hoped for best of circumstances.

So, yes, I absolutely agree, I think Rich Rodriguez and the current program by far offer us the best opportunity to develop, grow, and succeed in 2011 and 2012 (and I'd argue 2015, as well), and my greatest concern at the current time is what might happen if we let him go in another month, or two, or maybe three, i.e. Needing to hire a new coaching staff, implement a new system, recruit for that system, and in the meantime "plug in" the players from this system and try to get by. We've been down that road the last couple of years and I think it would be an error to travel that same path right now, prematurely in my own subjective opinion.

My hopes for this season were 7-5 with a bowl game (and hopefully a victory there), and I think it is still possible, and while 6-6 would be something of a disappointment, I still fully support Rich Rodriguez (even while open to any possibilities that would improve our "D" now and going forward). All of this, as stated above, is merely subjective opinion and, so long as I continue living, breathing, walking, and talking I'll be a Michigan Man, and fully invested in the program, hopefully with Rich Rodriguez but regardless of how this season finishes and subsequent decisions go.

Go Blue! 

I like the idea of bringing in Casteel, if he is available.  If that doesn't work, demote RR to OC and bring on Harbaugh (sarcasm, I think).

I think you might be missing the point of the offensive criticisms, Brian. Everyone likes the numbers; a top-20 offense is eminently respectable, especially given our youth. And the fact that most of the points are scored in the second half means that the offense is resilient and not packing it in like last year. Those are unqualified good things.

What I--and I think others--are concerned about is the fact that they can't score early and they can't sustain a scoring drive when it would be most helpful to do so: when the game is close. Sure, the defense isn't helping, but the marginal utility of yardage, points, and possession is lower when you're far behind: you can't expect to win shootouts if you only show up for half the battle. You've already been shot to death by then. I just wanted to reiterate that I love Denard and co as much as everyone else, but we shouldn't ignore 7 TOs and 27 first-half points over the last three games--even if the stats are happytime.

Now, the real problems are with the defense, so ya'll can go back to talking about that. If our defense were better it would make the offense more comfortable, too.

I think the best possible outcome right now is for us to win the next two and get a defensive staff where the co-ordinator knows the scheme and the assistants buy in. That could be Casteel (since we know that'll work), or Hypothetical New Guy (with new assistants). I'm fine either way so long as the outcome is a defensive staff where the DC isn't undermined constantly. We might also consider shifting an offensive coaching slot to defense or special teams duty.

but where is this coming from:

including Dee Hart, though he probably won't end up at M if there is a change

hasnt he said he picked michigan because of the school and would come regardless of the coaches?

C'mon Blue, beat Illinois!

I'm withholding judgement on the entire coaching staff for one more week.

I really wish those Denard figures were real. I would buy 10 of them.

As for the coaching situation, I'm torn.

Let me fix that for you:

Q: What's the difference between a Free Press columnist and a message board poster?

A: Editors Moderators

Freep editors don't edit.

Bobby Williams and John L Smith at MSU had higher Big Ten winning percentages than Rodriguez and both of them were fired. Tim Brewster had a higher Big Ten winning percentage than Rodriguez and he was fired.  There was clarity at MSU and Minnesota.  I don't understand why there is no clarity with Michigan.  I never thought I would see the day when we had lower standards than MSU and Minnesota.

Anyone else want to hear a sobering stat?  Mike Debord had a MAC winning percentage at CMU higher than Rodriguez's Big Ten winning percentage.  Yes, folks.  We would have been better off hiring Mike Debord.

So, you say Dee Hart is going to leave if there's a coaching change?  Let's go to Dee for his response:

"I liked Michigan either way and if he were to leave it wouldn't affect me because I think I can play in any offensive system," Hart said. "So it really wasn't my concern."