what I read, but he strikes me as a leader with an excellent work ethic. I think he will start by the 2-3rd game and generally rip it up.
no is that RR is going to pick the best Qb bc he wants to win.
hes gonna be really good 4 us.. im thinkin more like a colt mccoy rather than tebow... he runs wen he needs to... hes passed 4 almost 4000 yards his senior year (he is still in the playoffs)...
signonsandiego.com has his stats. He had 6 rushing tds his jr yr, he already has 11. He passed for more than a thousand yards more this season than last season (10 games so far this season to 11 last yr). Threw more interceptions this season but he threw the ball more... More tds this season too.
I think he'll start from day 1. Threet/sheridan proved that they cant lead a team. He has 8 months of learning everything. Plus, RR already said hes playing with the 1's the first day hes on campus.
wen did rr say tates playin with the 1s?? and yes i agree he will be the starter the 1st game nxt year he has an arm and good speed (something no qb at michigan has right now)
I've heard from a couple people that they thought his arm compared to Chad Henne. A couple coaches have said this also.
that's pretty awesome. i'm tempering my expectations because he'll only be a frosh next year but he should be pretty good.
Then the only reason he's low rated (relative) is because of his height? It's possible, but unlikely. Then again, given his 70% completion percentage as a junior and a Henne-esque arm, he should be in the top 3 of pocket passers. The only thing that would seem to be such a negative then is his height and the fact he can run? I'd be careful about saying his arm is Chad Henne-like because I seem to remember expectations set earlier this year around a defense that was 2006 esque because it had a sweet defensive line and was going to be Barwisized.
Also, unless he has a killer tatoo, he's no Chad Henne.
I don't want this to sound rude, but I don't get the comparison of a quarterback's arm to our defense.
Those star ratings a lot of the time are wrong. I said this in a different post, but I take those with a grain of salt. If you look at the other factors, he's very highly regarded. On rivals, his "rr" rating is a 5.9, which means they think he's a potential game breaker. He has offers from Michigan (obviously), Oregon, Penn State, Florida, Stanford, Texas A&M, and Arizona State. So he was highly regarded by the people that matter, the coaches. I'm not saying he's the best qb out there, but he's good.
That's kind of the point I was trying to make in my other posts in this thread. It isn't beyond plausible that Forcier will come in on day one as a true freshman and be better than either Threet or Sheridan will ever be in their entire careers. That's just a simple analysis based on natural talent.
Tom, with all due respect, I think Shock's point revolved more around setting unrealstic expectations for a kid we don't know much about, other than reading press clippings.
Sure. But there's a difference between "plausible" and "likely". It's "plausible" that the Dow will gain 700 points tomorrow, or that I'll randomly be promoted.
I'm not even saying that it's not "likely" that Forcier will be the starter. All I'm saying is that:
-Threet, no matter what people want to say, is physically talented. He also has made good decisions in this offense. He needs to improve accuracy, badly.
-Beaver, according to most talent evaluators, is roughly on par with Forcier, though he possesses a different skill set.
-It's generally unlikely that true freshmen are riotously successful at QB.
-Forcier's main knock, other than size, is that his level of competition in high school is thought to be sub-par.
So, I'm not saying that he won't be a good college QB, I'm not even saying he won't neccesarily be a good college QB next year. What I'm saying is that EXPECTING it to happen will, more likely than not, leave the person disappointed. THAT, I think, is where Shock's point comes in. Everyone thought that our defense was going to be god-awesome amazing. When our expectations weren't met, people freaked the fuck out and wanted blood.
I just hesitate to anoint a kid I've never seen play a second (other than a handful of highlights, which, by definition, are the best he has to offer, so not particularly useful for evaluation purposes - which is assuming any of us is qualified to evaluate a football player anyway) as our savior. ESPECIALLY when we have a decently-talented returning starter AND a classmate evaluated roughly as highly.
I'd say Forcier has about a 33% percent change of being our starter, and from there, maybe a 50% of being something we'd describe as "good", at least for next year.
how tall is chad? i kno tates only 6'0 thats y hes a "dualthreat qb".. hes alot quicker than chad
I don't know where this idea comes from, but you are listed as a dual-threat only if you ARE a dual threat. If Tate was 6'5" and had the same running skills that he does now he would still be a dual-threat, but higher listed because he is taller.
GoBlue00: I hope that he is successful at Michigan, but I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that his success or failure will have NOTHING to do with "he just looks sick when he plays(accessorie wise)".
And if we are starting a true freshman for the first game next fall, we will be very fortunate to have a winning record.
I completely disagree about the winning record comment. It is at least plausibly debatable that this years team "could" have had a winning record with a viable quarterback, freshman or otherwise. So, with everything else that much further progressed next season plus a viable quarterback, a winning record should be the minimum expectation (and no, I really don't think I'm setting my expectations too high).
We could have had 2 more wins this season just by not having such abysmal luck, and a couple more with better throwing ability.
make this comparison, but I don't see any reason why our 2009 offense can't be similar to OSU's 2008 offense. We'll have a serviceable line, an experienced power running back, and a talented true freshman dual-threat QB. Unfortunately, the other side of the ball is a different story...
Sheridan's lack of success can be directly tied to his lack of sick accessories.
It is a well known fact that Henne got his power from that panther tattoo.
Well i never heard the chad henne thing. Thats good thing though. Imagine if Chad henne has wheels is what i always thought, well i guess my dream came true because its tate.
U really think we'll have a losing record if we have a freshmen qb? Not so fast. Theres comments tate made about sheridan/threet, the things there doing wrong. Tate was talking about how when its 3rd and 2, the qbs just take a sack or throw it away when noones open.YOU RUN THE BALL he said.
Remember, chad henne and mike hart led us to a 10-2 record when they both were freshmen. and i know we had braylon, but he didnt win us the 10 games. Theres a new braylon in the making, and thats Daryl Stonum. Stonum and Forcier all day for 3 yrs. Thats championship after championship after championship.
I know Stonum is a Frosh and may well be very good at some point in his career at michigan. i hope he is anyway. but lets hold off on the braylon edwards comparisons just yet. nothing against stonum either, the bar is just really high
There are a lot of things that need to happen for this team to make the step up to 8 wins. The most important (in my opinion) is a major step forward in OL play. Its realistic to expect that.
The second most important is quality QB play. Not Chad Henne 2006, but no worse than Navarre 2001. And Navarre 2001 a redshirt sophomore in a system that he had spent two full years in and had started three games the year prior. Expecting a TRUE freshman to perform on opening day at the level of Navarre 2001 is not terribly realistic.
I can see a positive scenario whereby one of the freshman QBs can replace Threet during the second half of the season because they have had the spring camp, fall camp, and 1/2 season of practice to get to a point of being competent. But to think that they will be prepared to make all of the relevant decisions at game speed by the end of august is foolish.
No offense, but I don't see how it's foolish to think that. By the time that next August rolls around both Forcier and Beaver will have exactly the same amount of time that Sheridan and Threet had in the system this past August. The only difference is that both Forcier and Beaver have legitimate Michigan-caliber skills. I would be willing to bet good money that one of the two true freshmen starts game one next season and puts up significantly better numbers than either Sheridan or Threet did this year.
The number one reason the QB play will be much better next year is because there will be three viable options instead of maybe one. The best player out of Threet, Beaver, and Forcier is likely to be much better than the best player out of Threet.
Theyll be way more ready. For one beaver/forcier run the spread option type offenses in high school. For two, they can run, so it adds the running part of the offense,(and they can actually run) and they both got good arms.
Before this year 2001 Navarre stuck out like a sore thumb for worst quarterbacking at UM, I'm speaking Lloyd era not before. I think some athletes just have an intangible competitive edge, I'm avoiding saying Eye of the Tiger, Tate Forcier seems like this type. I think being at that Utah game he was convinced he could start here early. His scrambling ability is legitimate and that could be the difference. I'd be happy if Threet improves and starts. He has great arm strength, but terrible accuracy. Who knows maybe Beaver will start. Brian is right 3 lottery tickets are better than one.
You're right we should temper our expectations, but I feel a lot better about QB next season.
I'm just curious how you have any insight into Forcier's emotional makeup. This is projection of your desire, not an observation.
I certainly do desire him to be a fiery competitor. All I'm going by are a few things. Competition in college never worried him. When Newsome was a commit he still flew into town and attended camp. He committed right during his visit of the Utah game. I recall him saying "All I can say is that offense isn't for them, but it's tailor-made for me" in regards to Threet and Sheridan. Maybe he's just cocky, maybe he doesn't pan out, I'm just saying I like what I see from afar!
GoBlue00 -- I admire your optimism, but you are very naive. There is no receiver on the team right now that will recreate Braylon's 2004 production next year. Braylon was either the greatest or second greatest WR at a school that has produced a lot of great WRs in the last 30 years.
It is also unlikely that our OL will be as good as the 2004 unit. Here are some of the players that were up for preseason award watch lists in 2004:
Butkus: Reid and Woods
Walter Camp: Edwards
Thorpe: Jackson and Shazor
Not that pre-season rankings mean much, but they do imply some estimate of the team coming back. We were ranked 7th (Coaches poll) and 8 (AP Poll) and chosen as the Preseason Favorite in Big Ten. We are not that team next year.
Assuming Graham comes back, we will only have one guy to be on any preseason watch lists, and Mouton and Warren might get some publicity. THAT'S IT. We are not that team that could carry a true freshman to a conference title.
"Assuming Graham comes back, we will only have one guy to be on any preseason watch lists"
The Space Emperor is going to exile you from space with comments like this
Barring an injury to Threet, Beaver and Forcier will not have as much time in the system as Threet. Threet will be getting at least 1/3 of the practice snaps, if not more. Where threet split the snaps with sheridan leading up to this season.
Threet was also a year older than these two recruits and had been on campus an entire year. He had his feet underneath him when the new system came in. College will be a new experience for the two recruits, and I can't see their focus being on par with Threet's for that reason. And to think that they will pick everything up as quickly as Threet is optimistic.
I'm not sure how you can say that last sentence when Threet hadn't picked up the system well enough to be the starter in week one this past season. As for time in the system, what I meant was that both Beaver and Forcier will have as much time in the system at the start of next season that Threet had in the system at the start of this past season. Sorry if I wasn't clear on that.
Isn't the fact that an intelligent kid (Threet) COULDN'T pick up the system in that time more of an indication that it will also be difficult for Beaver and Forcier?
Not necessarily. Both Beaver and Forcier will be ahead of the game in that they've run it before.
In the film I've seen, what they're running isn't a read option. It's a generic spread.
Ok, and the problem with that is what? That means that they will have experience making the more difficult of the two types of reads (although against lesser talent). That's an advantage if you ask me.
It's not a problem - it's just that it's not "the same offense", as you claim.
I never said that it was "the same offense". That said, it's a hell of a lot closer to what either Threet or Sheridan had experience in when RR started, now isn't it?
Look 3 boxes up. You said they had run the system before. Now you're saying they ran "something like it". Threet ran a spread in high school. Again, if a smart kid (Threet) can't pick it up in the same amount of time, why would a kid who, according to his own father struggled academically magically be able to do it? The fact Threet COULDN'T is more of an argument for why Forcier will struggle with it as well, not that he won't struggle.
(1) Academic smarts doesn't necessarily translate onto the football field.
(2) Don't put words into my posts. I never said that they ran the same system. What I said in the box that you reference doesn't say what you claim. It just didn't.
(3) The fact that Threet COULDN'T isn't really an argument for why Forcier will struggle with it as well at all. It is only if your assumptions are true; which is particularly debatable.
(4) Try being a little more flexible in your reading of these posts. You nit pick at points that are addressed in other posts.
I would say that academic intelligence would highly correlate to the speed with which one can learn a playbook.
Why aren't you talking about his accessories? Clearly how pretty our QB is should be the biggest issue, not how well he "plays". Take a page from Notre Dame.
Look, to clarify: I hope you're right. I hope Tate is awesome. I think he'll end up being a good QB. I really do.
I'm not convinced that's going to happen next year - Henne was successful because he had Braylon. Being good as a true-freshman is hard. It just is.
I just shudder when I see these expectations being so high for him as a true freshman.
Just look to all the people calling for certian players to lose scholarships and certain coaches to lose jobs when hih expectations aren't met. Hell, look at Navarre as a Sophomore.
projecting a freshman that we haven't seen in person yet at the toughest position in sports in an offense that demands arguably more of a QB than Drop Back does is crazy. I understand the impulse (please God!) but history shows this is faulty thinking.
In Tate's highlights he does run the read a couple times FWIW
There are two positions on a football team that "natural talent" isn't enough to be competent, QB and OL. It takes time to learn what the hell to do.
And regarding talent, I question that either recruit will be as talented as Henne. And he struggled as a true freshman. What saved him was that he had a lot of excellent players around him for support. Who ever is QB next year won't have that supporting cast.
I don't disagree with what you are saying about talent w/r/t QB and OL, but there is a certain point at which all the experience in the world doesn't outweigh superior talent. I hadn't brought up Henne (I'm guessing that you're pulling that from another poster), but he's a good player to bring up in another respect. Yes, he certainly had his struggles during his first season. However, there is one important thing that Forcier has that Henne did not: mobility. I really think that's where the Henne comparison should end though. They aren't the same type of quarterback.
I know what you meant about being in the system, but I think a more nuanced analysis is required. there were two qb's taking the lion's share of snaps leading up to this season, Threet and Sheridan. Let's assume Sheridan is done. Now we will have three QBs taking snaps, Threet, Beaver and Forcier. So the two recruits will get less snaps to learn what to do than Threet had prior to this season.
And regardless of whether or not Threet started the season, he was making good decisions early on. He just had a fondness for Tacopants, fumbles and throwing poor swing passes.
Yeah, I know what you are saying. I don't disagree that Threet was making good decisions. I guess the difference here lies in whether Threet's improvement will supplement his lesser skill set enough to make him a more viable choice in week one next season than a player with a better skill set (I don't think you'd argue with that) and less experience.
GoBlue00 mentioned our success in 2004 with a freshman QB. That is the genesis of my Henne discussion.
I'm not going to argue that greater mobility would benefit Threet. But decision making is the trait that takes time and reps. And lets not forget that Threet was a highly regarded QB coming out of high school (top 10 rated as I recall). He may not be a perfect fit for the read option, but he has demonstrated an ability to make yards with his feet. so the recruits don't bring some ability that Threet lacks entirely.
But Threet has game experience that the recruits do lack entirely.
You're right, Rivals #9, 4 star, Scout #12. I didn't remember that for whatever reason.
Also, I do want to point out that I haven't clearly articulated to I don't believe that Michigan would be in that bad of a spot if Threet is the starter in game one, because as you said in your other post, there is no reason to expect that he won't make a typical Freshman to Sophomore transition. There are just some little things that I don't believe are readily teachable/learnable that Threet is quite deficient in (i.e. his short passing game). I just come from the standpoint that it is absolutely vital for the offense next season to have a downfield threat to loosen up the defense, and I'm not sure that Threet gives that (although he's CLEARLY more a downfield threat than Sheridan).
Interesting tidbit on Sheridan, speaking of ratings, etc.: Sheridan wasn't even first or second team all conference in high school his senior season. I made the point in another thread (and this is not meant as a slam on Sheridan), but man, he had to have been the worst starting QB in FCS this season.
he didn't even start a game for an FCS team this year
It's 2:30 in the morning. I made a typo. Please forgive me.
I believe Sheridan was injured his senior year of high school. I doubt he would have been a highly regarded recruit or all state, conference, or whatever, but I think I've heard he was injured a few times FWIW.
My hope with regards to the QB situation next fall is that Threet is the starter and one of the recruits shows some early promise. That recruit gets a handful of series each game early on. And if there is progress, more later in the season. And then in the recruits' sophomore season, they are really able to compete for the starting job.
I see two scenarios that would lead to one of the recruits starting. the far less likely one is one of the recruits is lights out leading up to the season and beats out Threet who had made the typical freshman to sophomore transition. I think that there is zero reason to expect this.
The second is more likely and would be grim for us. threet regresses and makes starting one of the freshmen a viable option. This is the doomsday scenario.
I don't see how Threet regressing would be a more likely scenario.
Finally. A quarterback that knows a thing or two about fashion. He's going to take us to the next level.
No wonder Clausen's been a failure. He dressed like a street pimp when he announced Notre Dame.
I agree with the need for a downfield passing threat. If we don't have that, regardless of the QB, we will suffer.
I am no expert when it comes to evaluating QBs, but one thing that Threet suffered from early was an OL that was very porous. Making it difficult to trust the pocket and step into his throws. Against ND, he starts hitting his targets (other than errant swing passes). soon after, he hurts his elbow and his ability to throw was greatly diminished. And he's been battling arm injuries for what seems to be 2/3 of the season. So i have a difficult time assessing his skill set.
That's a good point on the injury, I'll admit that I had forgotten about that. The one thing, as you mention, that worries me a lot about him is the consistent missing of the swing passes and the bubble screens. I really hope that's more coachable than I remember it being.
Also, I'm glad that you agree on the downfield threat. In my opinion that's a bigger hinderance to the offense progressing than having a mobile quarterback (although that will help too).
Is something else that could have been fixed by a better OL. If he had more time for plays to develop, he would eventually get better at making those throws.
The Threet regressing (or getting injured) scenario I view as more likely that the freshmen being lights out scenario. I view both of those scenarios (which would lead to a true freshman starting game 1) as less likely than Threet makes typical frosh to soph improvements and begins the year as the starter.
I really like Threet's work ethic, and his want to succeed, but I don't think that matches up with his talent.
Yes he was rated a 4 Star by Rivals. However, as I've stated before don't look too much into those stars.
Look at who he had offers from.....
Georgia Tech, Illinois, Indiana, N.C. State, Stanford, Wisconsin, Central Michigan, and Miami of Ohio.....
That's not 4 star caliber to me. A lot of his high school teammates have said he practices well, but then can't put that onto the field. From what I saw this year he's not going to go very far into next season.
I'm not trying to put the kid down, because I like him, but I think everyone is underestimating these 2 quarterback recruits. For one, we're not used to this system, where they can be brought in slowly, and run more if they have to, or throw screens. I just think Tate's got a great shot at coming in and earning that starter job, especially since Rich Rod wants his kind of qb on the field.
Plus, on the read option plays, how many of us thought Threet would actually keep the ball and run with it?? The defenses we played thought the same way. That offense can't work without another threat to run the ball.
I completely agree with you Tom, and I'm not underestimating the recruits. I think you are right on the money with that assessment (of course). This offense needs the keep threat on the read option and it needs a downfield passing threat. If Forcier can come in on day one and do both of those things (which I'd bet he can), there isn't really a reason to keep him on the bench. Also, the more I think about it, I'm not really convinced that the experience factor is that big of a deal with this offense because the keys in the running game just aren't that difficult.
quick question...with the whole Pryor saga last year (my first year following recruiting) i didn't pay any early attention to the 2009 class. Do you remember when rankings come out? I'm curious as to when they come up rankings for 2010. I remember they only do the top players early. I think the whole thing is complete sometime around June/July. But could you tell me when a player like Ricardo Miller, Jeremy Jackson, or M-Rob will have a rating?
Well, the juniors will go to the Army All American combine January 1-3rd and work out for scouts. They'll evaluate that, and their junior film then develop some sort of list once they get through it. I don't pay too much attention to the first list though, because it ends up changing so much. But I know Ricardo and Jeremy are both going to the combine, and I would assume Marvin too. They are going to be busy around National Signing day, so it's usually when they get to it after that. Does that help?
The passing is what was most deficient from our QBs this season. And it was really frustrating watching swing passes with such anxiety this year. That needs to get fixed next season (regardless of who is taking the snaps at QB).
Threet was able to pick up yards early in the season with his feet. When he kept it, he could make a DE pay for not respecting him by picking up 6-7. And he killed Wisconsin. His unwillingness to keep it later in the season is a concern, but we will never know how much his injury status had to do with that.
Yes, the passing deficiency is huge, which is something that a lot of people really misunderstood about RR's offense. For all of the talk of the value of the running quarterback, the passing ability really is more important. For as much credit as Pat White gets for his running, he really is a pretty good passer as well.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but how is this offense easier to run than the pro-style offense under Carr? On running plays, there is no read. On passing plays there are the usual reads of the defense.
In the read option system, the passing reads are likely the same, but there are reads on the running plays too.
I wasn't comparing the reads in this system to the reads (or lackthereof) under the old system. I was merely commenting on the difficulty of the reads in this system. Yes, there are both passing and running reads in the power option spread, but the run reads aren't difficult reads. Now I will admit that I am going off of my experience, which is obviously not in RR's system, but the reads appear similar enough that I can feel comfortable making that assessment. Also, for the record, if I'm wrong I'll admit it (I think my track record here proves that).
To clarify further, the key read on the read option that Michigan employs is on either backside end or linebacker, depending on the alignment. Which is why it's not that hard of a read. If they line up one way, it's a keep. If they line up the other, it's a give. And still further, several passes can be added to this, but even then they are not difficult reads. The beauty of the system is its simplicity; simplicity that is a nightmare for the defense because of the multitude of options from a single formation utilizing the exact same pre-snap and post-snap motion. But that right there is why the downfield passing component is SO important.
Originally I thought that Threet would start and one of the Freshmen (Tate) would work their way in around midseason to take the starting position. Now I am starting to think that Tate is going to start, however, I won't be surprised if Beaver starts.
Thinking about the system where mobility and quick, short, accurate passes are golden, I think that Threet will be outplayed in the preseason. Look at this season. Sheridan started because he was supposed to be faster and more accurate on those short passes. I think that says it all about who RR is going to favor.
One thing about the schools and comparing players ratings. On rivals, the last few schools are the schools there most interested in. Not the best offers.
Threet cud of got contacted by florida,USC,OSU, but maybe he doesnt like them so he rejected them ASAP, or when he narrowed his list he took em off.
Forcier on the other hand, i believe he leads all QBs in schoolarships with like 50 or something? until going to michigan.
His website is QBFORCE.com
but geez, could your man-love be any stronger? Yes, I certainly hope he wears all those different fierce colors too! How do you think his uniform will fit him?
I'm sure Feagin would've started at least 3-4 games this year if he had ANY FASHION SENSE... I mean really, is THAT how they accessorize in Florida???
*shuddering at myself, even in wanton sarcasm mode*
I doubt the coaches will allow him to wear "maize on one arm, blue on other. Wrist bands on each arm with the tshirt underarmour. One maize sock, one blue sock. With taped up feet..." At least they better not.
Two thoughts on this thread:
1) Rich Rod has shown a willingness to play a freshman QB if his skill set is conducive to the system. Pat White, people...Pat White. To say that Threet has an advantage because of his "experience" is false. In order to keep the starting job, Threet has to become a much, MUCH better passer because he will never add much as a rushing threat. Both Forcier and Beaver have much less pressure to be a great passer because they bring something else to the table that can make this offense successful.
2) The schedule next year will be much more manageable, so 7 wins is a very realistic goal regardless of who our QB is. Two MAC teams again, no Utah in game 1, and (hopefully) no fluke game vs. Notre Dame should equal 4 wins. From there I'd say it's very likely that we add a few more in the W column against the likes of Minnesota, Purdue, etc.
Saying Threet has an advangtage is not "false". His advantage is having run the system for a full season.
Experience isn't a complete equalizer. It can only get you so far.
you'd think being convinced that experience has a clear and significant value wouldn't be that hard.
totally. There's a reason teams like Ball State "come out of nowhere". It's because they benefit from a roster loaded with experience at just the right time.
No kidding that experience has a clear and significant value. I definitely didn't need this season to tell me that. However, I never said that experience didn't have significant value. I said that it isn't a complete equalizer; meaning that the practical value of the experience depends in large part on the underlying ability. In other words, no experience with a ton of talent is necessarily less productive than a ton of experience and no talent. Obviously Threet is somewhere in the middle. Which is what makes this entire topic debatable.
You might speculate on what number Forcier will wear next season, or Shavodrick, for that matter.
Certainly the #14 will be out there for OUR MAN TATE... he wears #4 if I'm not mistaken and he certainly won't be wearing that next year. PLUS that #14 on a quarterback will remind us all of a certain young man who led the Wolverines to glory....
Whatever advantage he might have by having a year of experience running the system is negated by his obvious lack of physical abilities. It's nothing against him per say, either. He might very well be a decent QB in the Craig Krenzel mode if he was in the right system. In THIS system though, the backfield lines up so far from the line of scrimmage that the QB has to be a legit threat to run the ball. If he's not, the defense stacks up against the RB and by the time the handoff has gotten to the line there are defenders all over the place. Add in the fact that Threet is not an elite threat to throw the ball and it's easy to see why defenses had such an easy time with us this year.
Steven Threet was a 4-star, top 11 QB. His "lack of physical abilities" may have something to do with the fact that he had two injured elbows and an injured throwing shoulder for the majority of the year, no?
Or, as Tom has suggested regarding other players, the ratings could have been wrong. Just saying'...
He didn't exactly light the world on fire before the injuries. The one time he ran for major yards was against Wisconsin. He never was an accurate passer.
Exactly. He isn't an accurate passer and that's tough to coach. Again, as I've said before, a consistent passing threat is more important to this offense than the qb's ability to run.
As Freshmen and Sophomores, Chadd Henne and John Navarre were inaccurate.
The answer to this question is answered in another post.
your statement is correct, but my belief (w/o looking up stats) is that Threet is WAY less accurate than those two were as freshmen
Threet was a freshman for god sake. People have these completely unrealistic expectations for inexperienced QBs that is beyond mind boggling.
Henne was not a good passer for his first two years on campus. Then he lights it up as a junior. Vince Young was not much of a QB for two years at Texas. Then his junior year he explodes, comes close to winning the heisman and wins the national championship.
This development of QBs does not happen over night.
While the examples that you give are very true, how about a list of the QBs that never make that development? Each of those players had outstanding underlying talent to build on. I don't see it with Threet. I feel obliged to say (as a few others have) that I actually like Threet, I just don't see his skill set developing appropriately for this offense.
I realize that there are some here who are much more knowledgable about Michigan (although I've been a fan since birth), and I recognize that. However, at the same time some of you (and I am not directing this at the post to which I am responding) need to recognize and admit that you know less about the offense that RR runs than others who have watched it consistently over about a decade.
Isn't that sort of why most freshmen don't start at QB? The list isn't very long.
The list isn't very long, but the odds improve when you run a spread system, especially a run based spread system.
henne was likely running a pro-style offense in high school. And he wasn't good at Michigan for two years.
regardless of what you ran in high school, it is very unlikely that you ran it against D-1 athletes. That difference in speed is what drives the difficulty in decision making.
These QBs will have trained in high school that when they see a certain relationship between receiver and coverage they have the arm strength to fit a ball in. In college, the speed of the players he will be playing against will be far greater. Suddenly, the decisions based on that physical relationship need to change because the window of opportunity has gotten far smaller.
Oh I completely agree about the level of competition. That's one of the reasons (among several) why I didn't want Pryor. For as great of numbers as he put up and as great as his highlights were, he played against NO ONE. The classification that Jeanette played in in the WPIAL just isn't that good. His running ability is neutralized to some degree at this level and his passing isn't particularly a strongsuit for him. Note that I am not saying that Forcier or Beaver are better than Pryor (I'm definitely not saying that), but it is fair to say that both of them are better passers than Pryor. But yes, your point about level of competition is fair.
Also, I agree with the decision-making part, in part. I agree for pass reads, but not run reads.
Tacopants came to life under Henne, because Henne was not an accurate passer early in his career. his last two years, accuracy was not an overriding issue.
Why is it difficult to believe that Threet's accuracy will improve with experience?
Tacopants comes around on a lot of QBs with very little confidence because they don't want to step into their throws which pulls the passes high.
Threet, however, throws balls high, throws balls short, throws screens behind the receiver, throws screens to far in front of the receiver, etc.
What I think gives Forcier an advantage over Threet and Beaver is that he's already an accurate passer. Henne's college accuracy was similar to his high school accuracy (best he did in HS was 64%, and his senior year was just under 60%). Mallett's accuracy was similar in high school to Henne's. Forcier was at 77% last year and is at 65% this year throwing more often, still better than Henne or Mallett managed in high school.
Forcier might not have a howitzer for an arm, but it's no noodle. He has to be the favorite to take over the job at some point next year.
Braylon didn't win them 10 games. Chad Henne was only on campus for 2 months before the season. Tate Forcier is going to be on campus in a month until Septemeber 5(his first game).
He has His first 4 games or w/e at home. He has a offensive team coming back from an embarrasing 3 win season, theyll help him threw the ride. Michigan is very talented, they only lost bc of horrible qbs and fumbles. That will easily be fixed in the offseason.
If Forcier makes bad decisions on a drive, he can discuss it with threet/sheridan who know where hes been. he will have help from alot of others.
The spread option isnt suited for Sheridan and Threet, it fits perfectly for Tate.
People may think tate runs the ball too much, scrambling around, but he has those things u cant teach, He'll settle down in college.
Pryor for example, he has things u cant teach, as does Tate. But, Tate can throw, Pryor sucks at throwing. And people thought pryor had a good yr? wait til they see tate. And pryor only got on campus 2 months before season.
Look, Henne was the #3 pro-style QB in this class, and #13 overall player. He was a 5-star recruit,
Forcier is te #6 dual-threat QB, and the #151 player in his class. He's a 4-star recruit.
I'm not saying he won't be good. But he's not Chad Henne. He also won't have Michigan's all-time best WR to throw 45% of his completions to.
Anthony Carter either
Tacopants came to life under Henne, because Henne was not an accurate passer early in his career.
Why is there all this revisionism about Henne's freshman year? As a frosh he completed over 60% of his attempts for 2,700 yards and 25 (!) TDs. Sure, it helped that he had Braylon, but those are still some damn good numbers.
And Henne's "bad" sophomore year? 58% completions, 2,500 yards and a 23-8 TD/INT ratio. Yeah, he had a couple of off games, but people are now blowing them out of proportion. He was still a fine QB.
I just hope our rivals don't start calling him "Taint Force" cuz, that just sucks.
Chad Henne had Braylon Edwards, Mike Hart, and Jake Long line up on offense with him. Those three players belong on all-time top ten lists in their respective positions not at Michigan, but in the Big-Ten's history. Tate Forcier will have who? "Marvelous" Martavious Odoms, Perry Dorrestein, and Brandon Minor?
This isn't an endorsement of Threet. He was awful this year. And I think his ceiling as a runner is about as high as it's gonna get. But he has a full year of experience in the college game. His passing SHOULD improve because it can't get much worse than it is now and I'm sure he's going spend every minute of his life from now until next season's opener working on it. I expect Forcier or Beaver to play (which means Sheridans's playing days are over) intermittently, but I'm pretty sure we'll see Threet start opening day. The only way I see Forcier or Beaver starting is if Threet has not improved at all as a passer, and if that's the case then the season is over and we might as well throw Forcier or Beaver in to start moving their development along.
It will become alarmingly apparent to Rodriguez in spring practice - that he has no choice but to start either Forcier or Beaver at QB. Threet and Sheridan are going to be 3rd and 4th string QBs by default. Think clipboard duty.
This is both exciting and scary for Michigan fans, IMO.
The downside is that these kids will commit lots of turnovers, interceptions and errant throws, no doubt. This will be frustrating and cost Michigan football games.
On the upside, these two QBs will be playing with an experienced and very high-talent receiving corps, a sick lineup of running backs and slotbacks, and a decent (not great) offensive line. But in RR's system you can get away with a "decent" OL because the QB can move it, move it, unlike the Greek statues that have been under center for Michigan since Bill Clinton was first sworn into office.
Forcier is probably the best option. He brings the full package. Good arm strength. Good throwing accuracy. Mobile skills and some speed.
I'd be concerned about any QB in RR's system. And I'm worried that Michigan may only have 2 QBs that can run the offense with any semblance of balance. Michigan needs 3 or 4 QBs that can do it. So it may mean another year's wait to 2010 and require the addition of Mr. Devin Gardner to make us feel safe as we fall asleep Friday nights in the autumn.