Talent, Or The Lack Thereof Comment Count

Brian

So on Monday I said something like "talent? what talent?" A few readers had objections to that; one went so far as to dredge up Michigan's class rankings from the last few years.

Here you go:

Just dug this up.
Recruiting rankings of the Michigan classes by Rivals:
2008 - #10
2007 - #12
2006 - #13
2005 - #6
2004 - #5

First, let's stipulate that whatever talent exists in the 2008 and 2007 classes is young. Even if those guys are all "talent" you can take freshman five stars and lose to senior three stars by 40. So let's just look at the three classes that comprise Michigan's upperclassmen.

Second, what is "talent" according to the gurus? Four and five star guys, mostly, with definite gradations between the two. Sometimes a player has offers that defy their ranking; I'll try to note that were possible.

2004

  • Eligibility Expired: Henne, Branch, Graham, Adams, Hart.
  • Transferred, Injured or Quit Before Rodriguez Arrived: Walton, Cheathem, DeBenedictis, Ciulla, Mitchell, Martin, Rogers, Gallimore, Allison.
  • Departed After Rodriguez Arrived: Arrington (NFL draft).

AVAILABLE TALENT

Tim Jamison: a top-50 player who didn't quite live up to expectations but was an above-average defensive end.

Will Johnson: four-star who played like it.

Morgan Trent: four-star who ended up a three year starter; two disappointing years sandwich a good one.

Doug Dutch: top-100 player who was an obvious bust well before Rodriguez arrived.

Mike Massey: Four star DE who lost his job at TE to Carson Butler. Think about Carson Butler, and think about Lloyd Carr, and think about Pat Massey. What does that say about Massey's talent level?

Leftovers

There are only two other players from the class on the roster, John Thompson, a fringe three star who picked Michigan over Wisconsin and Minnesota who was a poor starting linebacker, and Charles Stewart, mid-three star, who was buried on the bench until Morgan Trent broke his hand during the 2005 Wisconsin game. Then he was torched by Minnesota, moved to safety, languished until graduation forced him into the lineup. He did not do well.

That's it. The entirety of the 2004 class that made it to this year was seven guys, two of them obvious busts before Rodriguez arrived, three of them high rated guys who played well (Trent is iffy, I guess), and two low-rated guys forced into the lineup who played poorly. Only one departure can even sort of be blamed on Rodriguez, and Arrington was just barely hanging on already.

Notable: every offensive lineman in this class washed out.

2005

  • Injured, Transferred, or Quit Before Rodriguez arrived: Bass, McKinney, Schifano, Germany, Simpson, Forcier, Sears, McLaurin, Richards
  • Left After Rodriguez Arrived: Manningham (NFL Draft), Slocum (academics).
  • Injured and Unavailable After Rodriguez Arrived: Zirbel.

AVAILABLE TALENT

Michigan pulled 11 four or five star prospects in the class of 2005, and Rodriguez got to use four of them:

Kevin Grady. Bust, and one that was obvious before Rodriguez's arrival.

Terrance Taylor. Very good multi-year starter who played well.

Brandon Harrison. Fringe four star was a middling multi-year starter.

David Moosman. Fringe four star looked locked on the bench; started at RG all year and was okay.

Leftovers

Other than Mark Ortmann, the rest of the class are non-contributors: Logan and Criswell never saw time except on special teams, Carson Butler is Carson Butler, and Tim McAvoy was never going to start until Boren transferred, at which point he was put out there until they were comfortable with their switched defensive tackle.

This class is the killer, a complete disaster with one very good starter, three meh starters, and no one else from the #6 class in the country.

2004

  • Injured, Transferred, or Quit Before Rodriguez Arrived: Mixon, Woods
  • Left After Rodriguez Arrived: Patilla, Boren

This class is mostly intact. (Jason Kates just left, but Michigan had him at his disposal if he wanted to use him.) The big recruits:

Five star Brandon Graham is a beast.

Five star Steve Schilling is a two-year starter but has just been okay; his first year under Carr was much worse. He has improved.

Carlos Brown is injury-plagued; had a good Northwestern game.

Jonas Mouton was a first-year starter after shifting from safety, was okay, and is now getting pretty good.

Stevie Brown is Stevie Brown.

Greg Mathews is a starting wide receiver.

Adam Patterson saw about a dozen snaps this year.

Brandon Minor was Michigan's most effective running back.

Leftovers

John Ferrara saw some PT as a redshirt freshman on the DL, then moved to guard. Dorrestein is a backup OT. Ezeh is a mediocre starting linebacker. CONER.

So, A Count

How much four and five star talent actually resides in the upper classes? We can discount Grady, Dutch, Massey, and Patterson; all appear to be busts and were definitely headed that way before Rodriguez arrived. The answer:

  • The Entire Defensive Line. And it played like it.
  • Minor and Brown. When healthy, played like it.
  • Mathews. Michigan's best receiver; ideally a #2 on a good team.
  • Mouton. Rough start due to inexperience; very good finish; likely future star.
  • Harrison, Trent, and Brown. Collectively, an enormous disappointment.
  • Schilling. Slightly disappointing but at least serviceable.

That's your talent. Four guys on offense who collectively missed about 15 games, the badass DL, one linebacker, and the secondary. Is that enough to make up for the worst quarterback situation in the conference, and possibly the entirety of BCS conferences, a lack of depth at linebacker and offensive line, and a slew of injuries and a slew of freshmen making stupid mistakes? No.

A second note: "talent" is only talent if there is depth behind it. There is always a chance a guy is a huge bust. When it's Grady or Patterson he's sitting behind other guys who were high rated and play well. When it's Brown, there are zero other options and you're forced to play the guy. You see depth of talent at RB (Minor, Brown, Grady) and DL somewhat (Patterson is left over), and nowhere else.

Michigan got killed by back-to-back classes that saw a ton of attrition at key spots. Basically the only thing Michigan has to show from the 2004 and 2005 classes is the defensive line, which was Big Ten championship caliber.*

The rest of the team? Is not.

---------------

*(Though it should be noted that the 2004 class wasn't exactly a bust; it's just that most of the awesome guys in it didn't redshirt. And the OL was a disaster.)

Comments

Ziff72

November 26th, 2008 at 1:30 PM ^

That should be the core of your team..Seniors and Redshirt Juniors and we got T. Taylor as a stud 1 of 22 guys is not a good ratio for really good players. Everyone is coming up with reasons for this debacle that is 08. I'll sum it up in 2 words...Perfect Storm.

Ziff72

November 26th, 2008 at 1:34 PM ^

That analysis made me feel better, but maybe it would help or hurt us more to take that same analysis to Ohio St and Penn St. and maybe Florida and Oklahoma to see if we're sipping RR Kool Aid to feel better or highlight how bad the 2005 class jammed us.

UMaD

November 26th, 2008 at 1:47 PM ^

Thats the natural response to this. Some degree of busts, early entries, transfers, injuries, etc. is expected in any class and doesn't really prove or disprove the Talent Argument.

I'd be interested to see how the "Available Talent" compares to other Big 10 teams. Especially if one was to make adjustments (Kelvin Grady to 2 or 3 stars for example).

I get the sense most teams would have happily traded their personnel's talent level for Michigan's, at least on the defensive side of the ball.

KRK

November 26th, 2008 at 1:47 PM ^

I read a little while ago that most teams lose 1/3 of a class to various things and that of that 1/2 meet or exceed expectations and 1/2 are under expectations. I don't have data for that but I thought that was from an interview with a coach.

Garvie Craw

November 26th, 2008 at 1:57 PM ^

I pretty much summed this up the same way before the season for a friend who thought Michigan was going to be pretty good. Don't get fooled by the ratings. A quick look at the roster told anyone all they need to know. Add graduation and defectors to the mix and it was inevitable. I hope Forcier is for real, because we need that position locked down for the next 4 years. Beaver looks awfully thin, and Forcier looks awfully short. Rich, quit recruiting electron midgets!!!

chitownblue (not verified)

November 26th, 2008 at 2:02 PM ^

**** Andre Amos - 3rd string CB
***** Alex Boone - starting star T
**** Jim Cordle - starting G
**** Todd Denlinger - primary DT backup, sees real PT
*** Brian Hartline - starting WR
*** Malcom Jenkins - starting star CB
*** Son f famous WWF Wrestler "Animal", James Lauranitis - starting star LB
*** Freddie Lenix - not on depth chart
**** Jamario O'Neal - 3rd string safety
*** Brian Robiskie - starting WR
** Anderson Russell - starting S
**** Rob Schoencroft - not on depth chart
*** Austin Spitler - backup LB, in line to start in Lauranitis' spot next year
** Donald Washington - nickel CB
**** Maurice Wells - 3rd string HB, got unseated by younger players such as Beanie, Saine, and Herron
**** Ryan Williams - not on depth chart
**** Laurence Williams - not on depth chart
**** Doug Worthington - starting DT

So, of 18 players, 8 started on this year's team, and 3 more (Washington, Spitler, Denlinger) who contributed to this year's team. They had 6 4-star guys not pan out, but made up for it by having two 3-stars become All-Americans, 2 more crack the starting lineup, a third contribute, and have two 2-star recruits in their starting lineup.

Further, the guys that "flamed out" - Maurice Wells didn't end up doing anything, but they have a legion of legitimate **** and ***** guys who are younger that filled in. Their DL recruits are the ones that flamed the brightest, but ended up getting replaced by a younger, better, Cameron Heyward. The two DB's that aren't starter (Washington and Amos, though Washington plays) are backing up a true sophomore. So, a large number of players that didn't play did so because of elite younger players taking their jobs.

imafreak1

November 26th, 2008 at 2:54 PM ^

I'm confused. You mention this "James Lauranitis" but make no mention of his father or how unpossibly good he is. Does OSU have 2 James Lauranitis's? Because that would be WILD! If so, do they both wear those totally awesome (not so much) spiky shoulders pads. How are those things even legal?

evenyoubrutus

November 26th, 2008 at 2:06 PM ^

Don't forget that Morgan Trent was a WR, I don't think he even played DB in high school, but even if he did nobody considered him one until Michigan realized they desperately needed corners so they switched him up. To me, that negates his star-ranking no matter what it was.

Michigan Arrogance

November 26th, 2008 at 2:07 PM ^

since that 2004 class w/ henne, hart, etc.... i've been wary of the recruiting classes. especially at OL. the question here, i think.... is what are the causes of this attrition? LC seemed big (at the time) on getting guys who wanted Michigan, blah blah blah. mallet, not so. boren, not so, most of the other guys (Germany?), not so. i guess the LC failure was in recruiting the right kind of guys* and retaining them.

*i don't mean Michigan Men, i mean... well, if you're selling them on M (as LC said he did) then they should be more apt to stick it out, no? also, he wasn't very good at recruiting guys who wanted to play football... those guys who took their degree and left were surprising, imo.

WolvinLA

November 26th, 2008 at 2:08 PM ^

That's surprising that guys like Jenkins and Lauranitis were 3-stars. Robiskie and Hartline too.

Did you guys know that Lauranitis' dad was a pro wrestler! You should see his picture!

Chrisgocomment

November 26th, 2008 at 2:14 PM ^

OM F'n G the Michigan - OSU game from last week almost caused me to have a meltdown with the constant man-love they were giving Lauranitis. Not just him, but just the over the top focus on OSU was infuriating. At one point my Dad said "it's like there isn't even another team playing" (which, is kind of true, actually).

Then the announcers started blathering about those stupid gold pants, pretending like they had never heard of them just so they could make sure we were aware of this amazing tradition when I yelled: "YEAH, EVERYBODY ALREADY KNOWS THE FUCKING GOLD PANTS STORY, THANKS!" Which, like, whoa...my family doesn't swear and I dropped a F-bomb...whoops.

caup

November 26th, 2008 at 2:10 PM ^

was that THIS amount of attrition and busts was an aberration. It was a perfect storm of negative events. His post was a DIRECT rebuttal to the MSM hacks who are saying "Look at the last 5 recruiting class rankings! This season was UNACCEPTABLE!!" and then (and this is important part) they STOP right there.

Brian is saying "Hold on, let's dig a little deeper than the topsoil, you friggin' douches."

chitownblue (not verified)

November 26th, 2008 at 2:20 PM ^

**** Jake Ballard - starting TE
*** Bryant Browning - starting T
*** Chimdi Chekwa - starting CB
**** Kurt Coleman - starting S
*** Walter Dublin - not on Depth Chart
*** Aaron Gant - backup S
**** Thaddeus Gibson - Starting DE
**** Larry Grant - not on depth chart
*** Antonio Henton - LOL Hookers
**** Ross Homan - starting LB
**** Mark Johnson - not on depth chart
*** Dexter Larimore - backup DT, sees time, probable future starter
*** Andy Miller - not on depth chart
*** Terry Moeller - backup LB, likely career, as Dorian Bell probably takes this starting spot next year.
*** Aram Olson - not on depth chart
***** Robert Rose - backup DE, probable future starter
*** Grant Schwartz - not on depth chart
**** Ray Small - starting PR, 3rd WR, probably future starter
**** Conor Smith - backup G, probable future starter
***** Chris Wells - Starting RB

20 player class has currently yielded 7 starters, 4 probably future starters, and one non-starting contributor.

chitownblue (not verified)

November 26th, 2008 at 2:24 PM ^

So - '05 class for us yielded us 3 2008 starters. OSU's yielded 8.

2006 class yielded us 8 2008 starters (as defined as topping the depth chart, not whether injury forced them in). OSU's yielded 7. HOWEVER, one could argue that Brown, Ezeh, and Ferrara would not be starting at their positions without a nightmarish 2005 class (and they'd be right). Ezeh would likely be a starter at some point, but likely not as a sophomore, and DEFINITELY not as a freshman.

It should be stated, also, that this class will likely eventually yield 11 starters for OSU, whereas our "8" number is not likely to change.

Surveillance Doe

November 26th, 2008 at 2:27 PM ^

I was watching a Tigers game at Buffalo Wild Wings late in the 2007 summer. The famous Hupe (hoopy) from Arrington's assault charge was the bartender. It was a slow night, so she and I were chatting a lot about Michigan football. She and Arrington had dated since high school in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. She moved to Ann Arbor with him, and she worked while he did his football thing. Her plan was to leave with him after the coming draft.

She said there was zero question whatsoever about Arrington not sticking around. She said that he had no interest in staying on the team after Hart, his best friend (she said this, and, if you ever went to the Brown Jug, you would know this because those two were inseperable), graduated. She said he was keeping it quiet, but he was 100% taking off at the end of the season.

So the stuff about Rodriguez scaring off Arrington or Mallett's transfer being a factor is just logical people trying to come up with logical explanations. Arrington was gone.

Six Zero

November 26th, 2008 at 2:42 PM ^

Is that the official take on Obi then? Leftover, mediocre?

I agree, not the best performance this season-- but I'm not sure I'm ready to throw in the towel yet. Third year starting as a junior in '09 has gotta be worth something.

Yinka Double Dare

November 26th, 2008 at 2:57 PM ^

Indeed. He had a lot of tackles, which stupid people (read: many columnists and commentators) mistake for quality. His large tackle total was in part because of his position, and in part because, well, there were lots of tackles to make, especially since several other guys sucked at it. His angles and reads were often wrong or he'd get sucked into blockers too easily.

I think he's learning, but he's not made nearly the improvement that Mouton did over the course of this season. I think Ezeh will be a serviceable and maybe even good linebacker next year, but Mouton shows star potential.

StateandMain

December 4th, 2008 at 6:22 PM ^

This article seems to confuse the talent argument, not clarify it.

The argument for those of us who claim that Michigan has talent (or had talent this season) isn't that our top-ranked recruiting classes necessarily translate into top on-field talent. The phenomenon of talented players never 'making it' in D1 is common to all teams, just like the phenomenon of unheralded players making a substantial impact.

Instead, the argument is that we at least have enough talent to outclass several of the teams we played this year. In several games that we lost this season, we should have won based on the fact that we outclassed the team on the other sideline by three degrees. This is not the case with OSU, ND, MSU, or even Illinois. But NWestern, Purdue, and certainly Toledo are games that we should win because there are few players on their sideline who have the talent to play at Michigan.

The mix of better-than-advertised/not-as-good-as-expected is common to all schools. Look at any major program and this is the case. Not to mention, this has been the case in the previous 40 winning seasons of UM football.

No one will contend that this team has top 25 talent, but this is definitely not a team with the type of dearth of talent that explains 9 losses in a weak conference.