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The Stalactite Of Fear

By Brian — July 3rd, 2008 at 2:34 PM — 48 comments
Filed under:
  • charlie weis
  • column-type things
  • football
  • lloyd carr
  • Michigan
  • posts in which i say HOWEVA
  • rich rodriguez
  • sunday morning quarterback
  • tyrone willingam
  • Notre Dame

I'm out for the fourth tomorrow. See you Monday.

I get an email that starts like this about every week:

Brian,

So I'm searching for reasons to be optimistic about the upcoming football season.

I got the first one ten seconds after Manningham, Mallett, and Arrington all lit out for the NFL or Arkansas. Each one drips through my consciousness, leaving a residue of paranoia. We can't really lose to Utah, can we? Or Minnesota? Or Notre Dame?

SMQB says... maybe!

The main reason I'm so much more skittish about the Wolverines, maybe the sole reason, is because of their nearest parallel entering the season: 2007 Notre Dame. This is not a logical comparison based on probabilities. ND was in the same kind of woeful shape, personnel-wise, heading into last season, and everybody knew it; the Irish didn't get a vote in anyone's preseason top 25, either, off back-to-back BCS games. Losing a slew of quality career starters will do that for a team. But it won't necessarily result in the worst record in school history, or one of the worst offensive performances of all time; there are no demerits for failure to predict depths so completely outside of anyone's experience. Applying the same pessimism to Michigan based on one nearby, at-the-ready example is beyond hyperbole, if for no other reason than the Wolverines won't be facing ten straight bowl teams to open the season; even if they did, two of them would play in the MAC and another from the Mountain West. It's not the kind of schedule that will let any halfway respectable outfit bottom out that quickly.

The incredibly incompetent Notre Dame team of last year also pops up in the season prediction of Nittany White Out, though as a Penn State blog that actually posts things like "Rich Rod is a traitor and a snake" their opinion must be taken with a grain of salt large enough to encompass a decade-long losing streak.

This is what every emailer that starts off with some plea to reassure him wants to know. Nobody expects to beat Ohio State or even make a New Year's Day bowl, but Jesus, did you see Notre Dame last year? Humans are exceptionally good at modeling others' emotions, especially when said others are rivals of yours, and it takes little cognition to arrive at the conclusion that Notre Dame 2007 was Not A Good Time.

Take it from Brian Stouffer, the impresario from the (sadly dormant) House Rock Built and the man who wrote this year's Notre Dame preview for Hail To The Victors 2008:

Under a pale November sky in Palo Alto, Jimmy Clausen accepted a snap from center, trotted back a step or two, and dropped his knee to the ground, sending the final dozen or so seconds of the game clock spinning off into the history books. A strange, sullen silence draped itself over the Irish fans in a crowded bar on the north side of Chicago as it slowly dawned on everybody that the season was finally over. Thank you, sweet merciful Heaven, I thought to myself, taking a long swig from my tenth or fifteenth beer of the night, this godforsaken season is finally over.

Michigan fans appear to be kept up at night by the spectre of that emotion at year's end. And it's not just the Notre Dame parallel that many of the college football digerati draw that bothers. No one outside of East Lansing and Ann Arbor paid it any mind, but the Michigan basketball team just hired an offensive genius from Morgantown, bestowed upon him a rickety roster that was a poor fit for the genius's genius system, and had a Notre Dame of a season.

After a midweek game against Minnesota that saw 100 weirdly enthusaistic Gopher fans outcheer the entirety of a dismal Crisler arena, I wrote a post titled "It's Only Dark In Your Hearts" that concluded like so:


I have four more tickets sitting at a drawer at home; I don't know how many more of them I'll use. [I turned out the answer was 'all of them', by the way. I'm a sucker. -ed]

The idea of feeling like that after a football game against Minnesota haunts many.

So why won't this happen? First... it might. Michigan is unlikely to sink to the horrific depths Notre Dame did solely because of math -- hooray Gaussian distributions -- but failing to reach a bowl would be a real blow to the internet argument capabilities of Michigan fans. And that's totally within the realm of possibility, especially since the Big Ten mandates all 7-5 teams have to be picked before 6-6 teams. So this is not a "ha, that won't happen, you are stupid for attempting to predict the future because my ability to predict the future is much better than yours."

HOWEVA, I don't think it will. And I think so for these reasons:

1. Rich Rodriguez is not Charlie Weis. Charlie Weis is an immensely overweight sociopath who had never coached a team stricken by youth or, really, accomplished anything whatsoever without the aid of the opponent's defensive signals. Rich Rodriguez forged West Virginia into a national power despite operating with recruits far less highly touted than the ones Michigan has at his disposal.

This is by far the number one reason available. Outside of ludicrous pipe dreams like Urban Meyer or Mack Brown or Pete Carroll, Rich Rodriguez was perhaps the bar-none top candidate for any college looking for a coach. The only reason he was not a ludicrous pipe dream was the poisonous relationship Rodriguez had with West Virginia's dysfunctional leadership. He is proven. Over seven years at West Virginia he took a program that had fallen considerably during the last few years of Don Nehlen's tenure and turned them into West Fuckin' Virginia, and he did it with his system and his coaches and his players as the head coach. Charlie Weis was a below average offensive coordinator who left his team no worse off after he left.

Raise your hand if you think the Bill Stewart era is going to go well at WVU. Yeah.

How did Rodriguez do this? I don't know. I do know that some people can relate to the sort of people who end up as really serious college football players, can motivate them and organize them and inspire them, and that this is a real skill possessed by a very small number of very rich people.

Weis, meanwhile, implemented a half-ass version of the spread 'n' shred he would abandon a quarter into the season, neglected fundamental things like teaching people how to block, and alienated his players to the point where several of them bolted the team midseason despite plenty of opportunities for playing time. It was without question the most abysmal coaching performance at a BCS school since John Mackovic experienced armed insurrection at Arizona. It was three standard deviations below the mean.

2. Lloyd Carr was not Tyrone Willingham. Notre Dame fans' favorite excuse for the failings of Weis E. Coyote -- Tyrone Willingham likes golf -- was legit. The 2004 Notre Dame recruiting class was almost impossibly atrocious:

SIGNED LETTER OF INTENT Pos Stars Ht Wt 40 RR
Anthony Vernaglia ATH 6-4 218 4.5 5.9
Junior Jabbie DB 6-0 185 4.4 -
Maurice Crum LB 6-1 215 4.6 5.7
Justin Hoskins RB 5-11 190 4.4 5.7
Terrail Lambert DB 6-0 185 4.43 5.7
Darius Walker RB 5-11 197 4.45 5.7
Chauncey Incarnato OL 6-6 280 5 5.6
John Kadous OL 6-7 310 5.6 5.6
Brandon Nicolas DE 6-5 260 4.86 5.6
Ronald Talley DE 6-3 233 4.76 5.5
David Wolke QB 6-3 205 4.68 5.4
Abdel Banda LB 6-2 215 4.5 5.3
Justin Brown DE 6-4 225 4.7 5.3
Darrin Bragg QB 6-1 190 4.5 5.2
Leo Ferrine DB 6-0 180 4.4 5.2
Tregg Duerson DB 5-10 180 - 4.9

Take away the names and this could be Michigan State or Oklahoma State or any crappy team that manages a couple of good athletes and backs it up with garbage. It gets worse when you consider that two of the very few contributors were the first rats to flee the Good Ship Weis: Darius Walker entered the NFL draft early (in the same way I could enter the draft: he was undrafted) and Ronald Talley decided he'd rather start at Delaware than start at Notre Dame.

But wait! It's still worse: in reality the class was worse than that as a lot of the guys in it got overrated because they committed to Notre Dame. There is one area in which recruiting sites do fudge rankings, IMO, and that's with the tail end of the class at big deal schools. Almost anyone who commits to Michigan as an unranked or two-star player will end up with three stars if the services have time to rerank them. Normally this is a small effect, but when ND starts bringing in a full class of questionable recruits the big school bump becomes a major factor.

These guys were the seniors and fourth-year juniors on last year's team, and the class after them -- the Willingham-Weis transition year -- was hardly better. Michigan's recruiting has never been close to that dire. The 2005 class was #6 nationally; 2006 was #13. Even with the outflux of talent to the NFL and Ohio State's bench, Michigan has far more talent than Notre Dame did last year. The Willingham classes started out with hardly any talent and then experienced major attrition; at least Michigan is starting from a lofty perch.

The magical 2007 Notre Dame season was a lethal combination of awful coaching and awful talent. Michigan has excellent coaching and okay to good talent. I'm not saying you should make plans for New Year's Day, but this ain't gonna happen en route to 3 and 9:



Clearly, there will be growing pains. A season like Tressel's initial foray at Ohio State -- a bleh 7-5 that would have been 6-6 without JohnNavarre's exceptional generosity -- is well within the realm of possibility. And by that I mean "is the most likely outcome."

This should be fine with you. Michigan needs a year to pupate, and then?

DEATH BUTTERFLY


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Posted on: July 7th, 2008 at 11:08 AM #1
the sweater vest
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there is no way Michigan
there is no way Michigan doesn't get to a bowl game.
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Posted on: July 7th, 2008 at 1:38 AM #2
The Barking Sph...
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MMB 82
Wow, how Scout-neurotic of you to post some useless ass shit like dat. Why didn't UM just hire your fucking genius self and eliminate the middle man? Poor fucking Rich Rodriguez, all he has to go on is 20 years of coaching experience, and you waltz up in this mug and he's totally *PWNED. Yeah, fucking Lloyd Carr let Rodriguez draw up the game plan. Is it too hard to accept that Lloyd was finally, THANKFULLY calling it quits and he just said, "Aw gee, we have all these good players, what do you say we actually let 'em do something! And you never know, Mike (DeBord), maybe DickRod will have an 'accident' sometime before next season, and you can still be my successor" By the way, what the fuck is with having to scroll down for half an hour before the Blog comes up? Like my teacher back in first grade said "That's alot of wasted paper there, Mr Sphincter". I of course, very respectfully said, "I'm sorry, did I ask you for your opinion, Biyatch? Why don't you teach me something REALLY important, like how to fuck an older woman in the ass?"
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Posted on: July 7th, 2008 at 11:13 AM #3
Cool Blue
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He's Back
The Sphincter is healthy again. Good to see that you are back to your old self.
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Posted on: July 6th, 2008 at 10:14 PM #4
MMB 82
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(This is a test, with some
(This is a test, with some relevant posting material included) My question- does RR have to go COMPLETELY to a new system, or can he put in something similar to what we saw in the Capitol One Bowl and bring it on gradually?? I have wondered if he didn't have a hand in the game plan for the bowl game....
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Posted on: July 6th, 2008 at 8:25 AM #5
BlueSeoul
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how is he wrong about saban?
aren't there still three kids that have to be grayshirted or three bench warmers who have to be arrested/sent to the hospital?
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Posted on: July 6th, 2008 at 3:03 AM #6
The Heffalump
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I actually agree with you.
You won't have as bad a season as everyone is saying. I can't believe I'm agreeing with you after all the Alabama/Saban has too many recruits, numbers won't work nonsense. I actually agree with you about your season. You were wrong about Saban btw. So, so wrong. I'm not one of those "we dodged a bullet not getting Rod." Alabama fans either. I think he's a great coach who is going to make any team he coaches a contender. I would have loved to have gotten him if he hadn't turned us down, though I'm happier with Saban. Who you were wrong about. Please beat Ohio.
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Posted on: July 5th, 2008 at 8:28 PM #7
Topher
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Practice as conditioning
My high school coach was an Army Ranger in Korea, he conditioned us bigtime because he knew we couldn't expect to win based on talent. Our DC (his son) told us practice was conditioning, and there wasn't a lot of standing around. Being well-conditioned gives two advantages - you can execute better physically and mentally, and as the game rolls on you get a psychological advantage because you expect to play better than the opposition. When I got interested in coaching, I was somewhere between surprised and shocked to learn that many programs didn't have dedicated conditioning, and how much time was wasted in my opinion at practice.
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Posted on: July 6th, 2008 at 12:07 AM #8
TeamDP
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test
test
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Posted on: July 5th, 2008 at 10:24 PM #9
gsimmons85
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topher
so are you a coach then?  where?
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Posted on: July 5th, 2008 at 11:21 AM #10
doxa
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EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
This is why I'm not in self destruct mode about this year and have high expectations for the future- "Taylor has made a number of adjustments in the off-season, including his training. He claimed he returned from the Capital One Bowl in January weighing 327 pounds. Now, thanks to Michigan's intense workout regime, he's below 304 and plans to be at 295 by Aug. 4 when twice-a-day practices begin." "The NFL scouts are watching, and Taylor knows it. While Michigan has sent a few recent defensive tackles to the league -- Gabe Watson in 2006 and Alan Branch in 2007 -- both had a reputation for dogging it". Taylor admitted to being out of shape after last year and said: "I didn't feel like I really did anything I thought was great."
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Posted on: July 5th, 2008 at 5:23 PM #11
MGoObes
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likewise
i'm definitely feeling what TT is saying in that article. Michigan will be better than mr. cook expects
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Posted on: July 4th, 2008 at 9:12 PM #12
Electron Erectshon
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Haloscan didn't use to truncate Sphincter's name
I miss the Haloscan days when Sphincter would tell us how he really felt. Sphincter's spouting off is a type of anal leakage I can live with.
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Posted on: July 4th, 2008 at 8:31 PM #13
Cool Blue
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Saucy Sphincter?
Somebody started drinking early. I am just jealous.
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Posted on: July 4th, 2008 at 1:28 PM #14
Nate-Dawg
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Dude...are you ok? Seriously
Dude...are you ok? Seriously that's f-ed up.
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Posted on: July 7th, 2008 at 1:42 AM #15
The Barking Sph...
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God Hates us All
That's why we're football fans in the first place. Especially if you like Purdue or Indiana. But really, he's One of us, isn't he? And he has as much self loathing as the next guy. I mean, how would you like to create something and then every couple thousand years have to wipe the place out and start over? And remember, to "God", a couple thousand years is like 8 seconds. Maybe not even that long. And how some if he's so cool, the best name we can come up with for him is "God"? I mean, I'd be pissed if I created a race of fucktards and they named me after a swear word! Sure, some putz is out fucking his sheep in the mountains one day, and the Man sends a burning bush down to him, and he says "God DAMMIT! I was just about to blow!" and the Bush says, "YOU rang?" From that day forward, the voices in the heads of Moses, et al, is named "God Dammit". Man, that would suck.
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Posted on: July 4th, 2008 at 11:30 AM #16
caup
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The Horror wiped out...
...all of the hype and publicity that Navy FINALLY beating Notre Dame IN SOUTH BEND NO LESS(!) would have generated. This should have been an ESPY-worthy feat. No one talks about it. It's like it didn't even happen. Stanford over USC in the Coliseum? Didn't even happen. BUT WHOA, HOW ABOUT APPY STATE, HUH!?!?! BLEAHHHARGH!
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Posted on: July 4th, 2008 at 9:32 AM #17
ohmigods
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Big Ten active winning streak leader is...
  • Michigan 1 game
  • Penn St. 1 game
  • Purdue   1 game
every other team will start season with a losing streak. not sure if this is of any importance, (pretty sure it isn't) but does show how down the conference was last year. makes me think Mich football could finish year with anywhere from 8-10 wins.
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Posted on: July 4th, 2008 at 8:49 AM #18
Nate-Dawg
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swag-ger (v, n)- to walk or
swag-ger (v, n)- to walk or strut with a defiant or insolent air; to boast or brag noisily; ostentatious display of arrogance (See Charles Woodson during the '97 season)
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Posted on: July 4th, 2008 at 3:08 AM #19
Tim Waymen
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Does ND have an o-line?
I don't know just how much ND's o-line can improve just over the course of the summer. I doubt that they'll improve much. I expect Clausen and the defense to improve, but unless the o-line improves, ND's offense will be torn apart by Michigan's defense. I wouldn't expect ND to score much against us, but that doesn't necessarily mean that we'll win.
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Posted on: July 4th, 2008 at 2:20 AM #20
The Barking Sph...
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Bullshit Idioms
What the fuck is "swagger"? That's one of those "Aw shit, I have no idea what I'm talking about, so just insert it here" words. Nobody has swagger. Like Mike Tyson said, "Everybody has a plan, till they get hit in the mouth". What the fuck does that have to do with anything? Nothing, dickhead. I just felt like putting it there. If you don't like it, I'll swagger you, you mother swagging swagger.
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Posted on: July 4th, 2008 at 2:16 AM #21
akblue
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Why not win 'em all?
Maybe I'm a delusional homer... but I can't bring myself to predict any losses... I say we go out and beat the snot out of the whole lot. I'm expecting to win every one. I hope the team feels the same way.
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Posted on: July 3rd, 2008 at 10:05 PM #22
M - Flightsci
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Notre Lame
The only reason Notre Dame's '07 season turned out the way it did was because God hates them. http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/group.php?gid=2355042381
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Posted on: July 3rd, 2008 at 9:53 PM #23
Tim Waymen
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Maybe Grady's .281 wasn't so bad...
From wikipedia: "The invention of the breathalyser provided law enforcement with a non-invasive test providing immediate results to determine an individual's BAC at the time of testing. It does not, however, determine an individual's level of intoxication, as this varies by a subject's individual alcohol tolerance. Also, the BAC test result itself can vary between individuals consuming identical amounts of alcohol due to gender, weight, genetic pre-disposition." Also, some scientist tried using a breathalyser with binaca, and he registered .81 for up to 18 minutes. Funny shit.
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Posted on: July 3rd, 2008 at 7:59 PM #24
Electron Erectshon
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Joined: 2008-07-02
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Subject: Always Blank (Tribute to Old Haloscan)
We have a pretty favorable home schedule. 8-4 should be a real possibility with the toughest games being IMO, Wisconsin (H), Penn State (A), Purdue (A) and Ohio State. I find comfort in recalling just how bad Lloyd and his staff were on game day. We're going to throw teams for a loop this year. Our playbook hasn't evolved in over 10 years so teams won't know exactly what to expect from us. If we get through ND undefeated I say we go 10-2 and fuck up everyone's office bracket Sean Higgins style.Aug 30 Utah - WIN (tough game but RR's first in A2 so it's gotta be a win for symbolic purposes, just like Lloyd losing his first and last games at home last season - symbolic of his time here when trying to win big games without players named Woodson)Sep 6 Miami (Ohio) - WIN Sep 13 Notre Dame - Toss up since at ND but I'll take our defenseSep 27 Wisconsin - probable loss but game is in A2 so we'll have a shot Oct 4 Illinois - possible loss but game is in A2 Oct 11 Toledo - WINOct 18 Penn State - probable loss since game at PSU & they're dueOct 25 Michigan State - WIN (fuck sparty)Nov 1 Purdue - possible loss (Tiller's farewell)Nov 8 Minnesota - WIN (they're shit)Nov 15 Northwestern - WIN (game in A2) Nov 22 Ohio State - possible win (if we would have hired Brian Kelly)
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Posted on: July 3rd, 2008 at 6:57 PM #25
mth822
Joined: 2008-07-03
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old and new.........
I honestly think, and I have been saying this a too much. That Michigan's low ranking is a cumulative force that has no real backing other than it's history. If you tell yourself over and over,"Michigan is weak, new coach, lost all their good top older players." You'll miss the reality that there's strength in,"New coach and medium to young players as well." Different attack, or different form of energy, but if coupled correctly, the potential is there. And another over looked thing is pride. Pride about being a new hybrid form of Michigan. These guys know that they will forever be that,"Ohh yeah yeah you were there that first year of Rich Rod werent you dog. You were the new regime and all that." They know damn well what their legacy is. My hope is that they overcome fear or the fears of failure. I've heard Coach Weis give a lecture and there is some fear mongering there, lol.....he has a lot four lil verbals. But I want this class to see beyond the yelling and start the cycle. They have a chance to open up with a 3 pointer or a lead off base hit. No ones asking them to hit home runs, just get on base you know. Do the little things like block and tackle....sorry for the fishing reference....if that is a fishing reference. But the pressure is only there if it's reinforced. And to do that would be unfortunate. All together now........I can almost hear the roar of the crowd......and see the headphones of Rich flying off and the scamper for 6........what I really am hoping for is the players, moving in time, representing the staff that recruited them as well as who they are playing for.
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