unless my brain is more pickled than I knew, Leach graduated a year before AC arrived.
Spring Stuff: The Mostly Offense Bit
Long. Splitting into halves.
It's a trend: Michigan spring games have returned to their sleepy past, meaning little and failing to reveal Savior Quarterback Who Will Save Us. This is a good thing, since the titanic importance of spring games under Rodriguez was symptomatic of a program drunkenly staggering from one rickety support to another.
It would be nice if Michigan could put together an actual game like you see at OSU, ND, and many SEC schools. Maybe next year.
Anyway, highlights to remind you of some of the things chattered about below:
The most important thing that happened yesterday was Hoke muttering something about Jake Ryan's return timeframe:
"I'm not a doctor, but possibly middle of October. Some people react differently."
That would be excellent. The critical bit of Michigan's schedule is… well, all of November, when they play State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa and OSU, ie: the top half of their division, Iowa, and The Game. The only games before November that look competitive are against Notre Dame and Penn State, and Penn State should start dropping off what with their sanctions.
Ryan may even be back for that one, which is on the 12th. Indiana and a bye week follow, so Ryan may not just be back by the important bits of the schedule but established. As far as devastating season-ending ACL injuries to your best player on defense go, I like this one more than I expected I would.
Meanwhile, Blake Countess and Fitzgerald Toussaint both warmed up like nothing untoward had happened to them. (Neither was taking contact.) Countess's injury is far enough in the past that it's reasonable to expect that. Seeing Toussaint out there was a moment of shock for me. He didn't take any contact but if he's out there running five months before the season he will certainly be available in fall, which is when those soccer players who had the same injury came back anyway.
Devin Gardner Looked Good
this picture feels goooood (Eric Upchurch)
If Denard Robinson hadn't gotten hurt, this would have in fact been a Big Deal, as Gardner would be an heir apparent with no track record except his performance in the three previous spring games: awful, awful, and awful. With five starts dwarfing all spring data in importance, it's not a big deal. It is nice. Precisely nice.
In this one he did throw his traditional pick six to a linebacker he doesn't see coming underneath a receiver (Desmond Morgan dropped this one); aside from that he was 11 of 15 for about 140 yards, picking up where he left off in the fall. That's a very large jump from last year, when Gardner's performance had everyone buzzing about how Russell Bellomy looked like a plausible backup and let's just move Gardner to wide receiver already.
Here's the part you'll see about six more times before the opener about how if you extrapolate Gardner's statistics out to a full season you get some crazy numbers: 60% completion percentage, 9.7 YPA, 29:13 TD:INT, and nearly 3200 yards passing. That would be a Michigan record for TDs and brush up against John Navarre's 2003 season for yards. It would also vie for the best YPA season in the era when offenses throw the ball more than ten times a game—Jim Harbaugh hit 9.9 in 1986*.
Those numbers are a touch flattering since they include the bail-out against Northwestern and a couple of long touchdowns generated more by the defense screwing up than Gardner doing anything amazing—thinking primarily of Roundtree against OSU here. But then again we're talking about a guy who had been playing most receiver before being thrust into the starting job against Minnesota and a statline assembled against a set of defenses that were collectively pretty good. Pass efficiency Ds for the five Gardner opponents: 23rd (Minnesota), 33rd (Northwestern), 75th (Iowa), 29th (OSU), and 34th (South Carolina). At most one of those is a flailing patsy, and even the dismal Iowa defense was a far cry from MAC snacks not named Central Michigan.
Anyway: Gardner's calm demeanor and accuracy is another chunk of evidence to put on the pile. Maybe a small one, sure.
*[Rick Leach had a whopping 11 YPA in 1979, but only threw the ball 130 times. Yes, he only threw 130 times when he had Anthony Carter as an option. Football has changed.]
Running Backs: Wait Until Fall
With Fitzgerald Toussaint now certainly on the list of running backs not participating on Saturday who will be major threats for playing time, any conclusions drawn here are likely to be about the guy getting two carries a game behind Fitz and Derrick Green or DeVeon Smith. But it is spring, when we display our most colorful obsessions in an attempt to win mates. Let us proceed.
Going by the substitution patterns it seemed like Justice Hayes was tentatively your starter. He took advantage of this situation to average 0.5 YPC on two carries. Drake Johnson picked up less than a YPC himself, leaving Thomas Rawls and Dennis Norfleet to pick up the only real gains of the day by a tailback.
Both of those backs were going up against primarily backups. Usefulness: not assured. I mean, in one of the longish Rawls runs above he breaks a tackle from Terry Richardson, who's still about a buck fifty soaking wet. In the other a walk-on SAM gets crushed inside and the corner is open for days.
It will surprise no one that I thought Norfleet looked good. In the run featured at 2:10 in the highlight video he's behind mostly walk-ons and facing mostly starters. Black beats up Blake Bars and forces Norfleet away from blocking. Norfleet slips behind that block so fast that RJS has no shot at him, then he jukes Jeremy Clark out of his jock—and this is important for any coach but especially one Brady Hoke—to go north-south. On his other quality run (sadly not included in the highlights) he did the same thing: threaten outside so he could cut north-south and finish his run.
(@ right: Upchurch)
They did include the blown up zone stretch, and on that one you can see he just doesn't have a chance as Keith Heitzman rips through a block and forces Norfleet outside into Cam Gordon. He probably should have just eaten a two yard loss instead of testing Gordon.
Here's the thing though: Michigan didn't show a snap of pistol or much of anything, really. You know Al Borges loves his throwback screens, especially when he's got a guy as mobile as Gardner threatening the other side of the field. Who do you want grabbing those? Obviously Norfleet. Okay maybe Hayes, but we haven't really seen anything from him in that regard yet. Whoever gets that role has got to be plausible enough as an inside runner and blocker to not be a flashing throwback screen signal. I think we saw a couple things from Norfleet that bode well in that regard.
It's harder to get excited about Rawls given what we saw from him last season. Norfleet has the advantage of being a new toy, at least when it comes to getting carries in the backfield.
Receivers: Are They Supposed To Be A Problem?
Jeremy Gallon is going to catch a billion passes this fall, lots of them hitches, some of them hitch and go, some of them comeback screens. It's not so much the frequency with which Gardner targeted him on Saturday that makes me say this but the ease of the connection. When Gardner's throwing at Gallon it just seems easy.
Gallon reminds me of that moment after Braylon's departure when Michigan tried to establish Breaston as a deep threat. This was a rousing success until the moment Breaston had to bring in a ball over his head. IIRC he dropped it literally every time. But by God he was open.
Gallon is like that. His change of direction is elite, and Michigan is going to go hitch hitch hitch seeya this fall. By God, Gallon will be open. The difference: Gallon can actually catch downfield. His stature always makes him a tough target—see that corner route Gardner zinged well over his head—but we've seen him make a bunch of tough catches. Hell, he's even effective on fade routes in the endzone, a development that is still mindblowing even months afterwards.
Upshot: don't care if he's small, Gallon is a legit #1. Hell, he was fourth in the league in receiving yards last year despite operating in a Denard-centered offense for most of it. Let's have more Fun With Extrapolation: Gallon's hypothetical stats if Gardner was QB all year: 81 catches, 1330 yards.
Meanwhile, the guys surrounding Gallon will be fine. Drew Dileo didn't do much in the spring game but we've established who he is: a sure-handed slot guy who will find the foot of space he needs to convert on third and six. Devin Funchess should be a much bigger factor in year two. This is a proverbial weapon:
Darboh looked good finding a 30-yard fade on the first play from scrimmage; Jeremy Jackson made some plays. They'll have 4-5 solid options to go with a great #1. As points for concern go, this one doesn't register with me.
As for the second-year guys, Darboh seems a bit ahead of Chesson; both will play. You can see why Chesson redshirted last year when you get him next to Darboh, as Bryan Fuller did:
Still a bit of a Caris LeVert vibe from Chesson. They might have to protect him against jams by having him off the line, that sort of thing. Darboh looks like that won't be a problem.
I can't tell you I noticed a lot of details live, but one thing did jump out: Graham Glasgow seems to be making a serious push for playing time. He got plenty of snaps with the ones at both guard spots and center. He was the nominal starter at left guard over Ben Braden; at the very least it seems like he'll be the first interior lineman off the bench in the event a starter is hurt. He's their utility infielder.
The rest of the line seems set, with Kyle Kalis taking a large majority of the first team RG snaps and Jack Miller the same number at center. It is vaguely possible the arrival of Patrick Kugler or emergence of someone down the depth chart upsets the order of things, but I think that's your interior line: Glasgow OR Braden, Miller, Kalis. Joey Burzynski seems to have dropped back from the group with serious playing time prospects. Chris Bryant was well down the depth chart but did get on the field some. He could emerge if the injury is still holding him back.
Performance was a mixed bag. Michigan seems to want to pull Kalis to Lewan on a lot of plays. Good in theory; not entirely executed in practice. For example, at 1:10 in the highlights above you get a replay of last year's MLB misidentification: Michigan wants to run power behind Lewan with Kalis pulling; Michigan blitzes the A-gaps; Miller doesn't read this and sets up to block nobody; an unblocked Ross meets Johnson in the backfield, with Morgan unblocked right behind. Braden got smoked by Black for a sack a bit later.
Michigan yanked Lewan relatively early. Michigan put Erik Magnuson out there, and he did just okay. Pass rush was a lot easier to get with Lewan out of there (surprise!). Given the push Braden is making at guard I bet that any Lewan injury—knock on wood—sees Schofield flip to LT with Braden moving to RT and Glasgow drawing in at guard, if he's not already on the field. Michigan prefers a best-five-guys approach over any specific positional backup.
Defense in a bit.
It was John Wangler that averaged 11.0 YPA on 130 attempts in 1979, in AC's freshman season. Although AC averaged 27.2 yards per reception (!) that year, he only had 17 catches. Our leading receiver was TE Doug Marsh, with 33 catches for 612 yards.
And Wangler was only a part time quarterback in 1979. I think B.J. DIckey received most of the snaps and Wangler was brought in for passing situations. Wangler became the full time quarterback a couple of games into the 1980 season. There was one attempt in the 1979 Indiana game that had something to do with boosting Wangler's YPA stats.
and rick hewlett started in 79 v OSU - a surprise move by boio because Dickey had started pretty much the whole year. but hewlett went out in the first half with a knee injury and is now practicing law in detroit. i think he is at butzel long. cool story bro.
I came away cautiously optimistic about the offense, and specifically the starters at OL. I thought Braden was a bit better than Gasglow despite less playing time. They all certainly look the part. Wellman may not have the hype Barwis had, but he's doing an amazing job. The guys that needed to drop some weight (Logan Tuley-Tillman, Ondre Pipkins come to mind) looked great, and the guys that needed to put on weight for the most part looked like they put on good weight (Taco is HUGE)
Spring Game is nothing to get too concerned over, obviously, but I sure hope Jack Miller gets better. He looked shaky to me. If the center isn't solid then the whole line isn't solid. I miss Molk. I think Jack can do the job, I just hope he gets better than what I saw watching the Spring Game.
Started picture paging the "James Ross blows up your play" and it's currently evolving into "yea but whoopsies several offensive lineman." Such is a spring with 3 new starters on the interior, but I'm still hopeful for what some size at the guards can do. Ben Braden is a large human being, even standing next to Taylor Lewan on the sideline. Please continue to develop.
to say David Norfleet
Just looks so relaxed back there and throws the ball so far so easily. I don't know why the leap in performance since last spring, but he looks to me as if he will be the top QB in the Big Ten by the end of the year. And I am really llooking forward to seeing what an early-enrollee Drake Harris and Devin can do in 2014.
It certainly helps to have some confidence in your pocket. That Hayes blitz pick-up on the Funchess grab wasn't exactly Vincent-esque but it was the difference between a knockdown and a downfield completion. More of that this year please.
Hayes wasnt the only guy blown up by Ross this spring. Also thatbwasnt the only blitz pick up Hayes had.
I'm very interested to see what kind of player Funchess is in his second year. He didn't have much issue shedding defenders at the line last season- if he comes out as an effective blocker, he's the player i'm most excited to watch on any given play.
He needs improve his blocking, otherwise everyone and their brother will know it's a pass play when he enters the game.
On Rawls TD:
Must have been a blown assignment in there somewhere. Kalis pulls but has nobody to engage because the T and G were blocking the DE and DT. Meanwhile, the LB is standing in the hole. Rawls wisely bounces that outside for the score.
That said, I thought the line did better than I expected, considering they were going up against decent DLinemen.
None of the RBs stand out to me. Norfleet will be a good change of pace/ backfield reciever type guy. Rawls looked better and in better shape, but who knows. Nothing about Hayes jumps out to me. Johnson has gotten alot of mention from the coaches but he looked average to me. I don't know about Fitz. Was the lack of production before the injury a symptom of a bad line or something else? We will see where Fitz is when he can make contact. Spring ball basically means nothing but I could see both incoming freshman making a big push for playing time.
Damn Darboh is big. He is starting to look like Junior Hemingway.
Even though we don't have what is considered an "elite" WR, I think the WR group will be suprisingly productive this year. Darboh should be good.
out there, I still expect big things from the two little guys, Gallon and Dileo. I love the development they've shown over their careers, as I initially truly didn't expect much from either of them when they first committed to Michigan.
Shows again that it's not always the size of the dog in the fight as much as its the size of the fight in the dog.
Is LTT taller than Ben Braden? I was taken aback by how big Ben Braden is. Braden made LTT look small. I don't think the numbers from the spring roster are accurate. It looked as though Braden is a couple inches taller than LTT. The weight differential is believable.
|Ben Braden||OL||6'6''||314||RS FR|
They were standing next to each other at one point, and Braden looked an inch or two taller.
I've seen Brian make the Jehu Chesson/Caris LeVert comparison a few times. What does he mean by that, skinny?
Skinny and will be playing for Natties soon.
Welcome to the world. Are all movie critics great actors or directors, were all political analysts once President, and did Peter Gammons win a Cy Young?
So...only formal college and professional athletes are allowed to be critical? Regardless of their educated opinions? Do you watch anything other than ESPN?