So, That Happened
9/4/2008 – Michigan 20, Illinois 45 – 2-3, 1-1 Big Ten
Any attempt to list the full dossier of Michigan errors over the past few weeks would provoke a cascade of emotions from the reader starting with rage and ending with full-bore ennui. Along the way we'd touch grim sarcasm, depression, contempt, fatalism, resignation, dread, and a whole host of other things that in no way relate to happiness.
So let's skip it and just say there have been a lot.
It seemed like youthful nerves or inexperience in the first couple games. Against Notre Dame it seemed like the usual screwing over by Angry Michigan Ball-Oiling God. And, hey, we beat Wisconsin and the negative events therein were supplanted in our minds by the Thompson return and the unlikely Threet gallop and so on.
All of it could have been unfortunate randomness. The true abilities of Michigan's team would be unleashed as soon as they stopped turning the ball over every ten seconds or busting coverages that left, say, a guy running wide open downfield on fourth and ten. If they don't put themselves in a 21-0 hole against Notre Dame, if they just complete those bubble screens, if they don't suck on this play or that play &c &c &c.
As more evidence piled up it became harder and harder to justify the vague hope Michigan was a competent team stuck in Charlie Weis's body (it's like Innerspace except there's no machine to shrink you), but we endured. We are fans. Until such time as you declare EVERYTHING TO BE BROKEN because THIS IS THE WORST TEAM EVER and EVERYONE MUST BE FIRED NOW NOW NOW, people strive to find whatever hope they can. And also: how can kick returners just flat dropping the ball be a replicable event? Seriously. I want to know this.
But now it's pretty hard to come to any conclusion other than "they just suck." The last straw on my pet camel's back was Steven Threet dropping back to pass with Michigan down 45-20. Untouched, he cocked his arm to throw and fumbled backwards for the fifth time in approximately four games of play. This, like Ryan Mallett's mystifying inability to receive a snap, is now an event that will happen on a depressingly regular basis. There are similar events scheduled all over the field—especially in the secondary, where someone (Charles Stewart) has miraculously supplanted Stevie Brown as the whipping safety du jour.
We've passed the point where these things could be random chance. It's just a bad team. This revelation will probably be met with "duh" from everyone who's not a Michigan fan, what with skill positions that usually read junior, freshman, freshman, freshman, freshman, freshman and a coaching transition and, oh, I don't know, the nation's 110th best turnover margin. But, hey, we beat Wisconsin and for sports fans even lead balloons float when filled with hope.
My balloon is now filled with a sticky gray-green substance that smells like sewage and glows when the moon is gibbous. Saturday's event was tough to watch. While the long term outlook isn't affected much by the pratfalls to date, it's still no fun to watch 25-point beatings. Sadly, I just want to fast forward to 2010.
Eh, Bullets:
- I think Juice Williams may have the greatest ball fakes I've ever seen live. You know that thing where the cameraman follows someone who ends up not having the ball and freaks out when this becomes clear? I did that on like half of Illinois' runs. It was really annoying when I'd be watching the running back get tackled for no gain only for Williams to have the ball and run for a first down.
- Missing Hemingway and Stonum was a big deal, since it's obvious why Savoy can't get off the bench. Apparently the TV guys criticized the coaching on his long-bomb drop; I think the more plausible explanation is that a redshirt junior who hasn't seen any time is probably not very good.
- Holy Lord did Michigan get jacked on at least three different pass interference calls. Greg Mathews was obviously hit early on an unsuccessful third down conversion. Illinois got bailed out on third down by a PI call on a ball yards behind the receiver. Donovan Warren got shoved not once but twice on a downfield jump ball and drew no flag. The first two either ended Michigan or extended Illinois drives. The latter set up a third and two instead of a second and seventeen; the next play was the dagger Williams scramble.
- Michigan again used that goofy formation where Greg Mathews is 1) split out and 2) covered up by a receiver outside of him. They ran twice for minimal yardage. WTF?
- Despite Odoms' fumble he should definitely keep the return job. He consistently broke through the first wave of defenders and acquired Michigan excellent field position. The fumble just appeared to be a guy putting his helmet on the ball, which usually can't be helped.
- Perhaps the most disturbing event on the day was Illinois dominating the Michigan offensive line. The Illini had been shredded by all previous opponents. The offensive line is going to be an anchor around this team's neck for the remainder of the year.
I know that's exactly what Bo used to coach his players to do. He faced a lot of option teams in his day and he would have his best hitter on D (usually the Wolf) tasked with almost nothing but teeing off on the QB every chance he got. It seemed to work a lot of the time. The problem arises when you have big, rugged and fast QBs like VY, McNabb, and yes, 235-lb Juice Williams. It's hard to get someone big and fast enough to track down and really punish those guys repeatedly.
Having said that, I was disappointed that our D didn't hit Juice harder and more often, and I'd be willing to bet a fiver that part of RR's "soft" comments had something to do with that.
Go Blue
ISTR an article several years ago talking about a (mini-, and short-lived) resurgence of option football. Not the spread per se, but stay with me here. A DC interviewed for the article said something like "if you're going to run an offense where I get a free shot at your QB on EVERY SINGLE PLAY, sign me up!"
So I put this to gsimmons and the other experts out there - is that a viable way to stop the zone read? Don't just assign a guy to the QB, assign him to bust the QB in the mouth (whenever legal, of course), regardless of whether he hands off or keeps it? I'd like to think that would take a toll on anybody.
Or - and this is the scary question - is Michigan already trying to do this, and just isn't good enough to accomplish it?
UI has a blocker on our guy in the flat, but you'll notice that we have them outnumbered on that play. Trent has absolutely nobody between he and the back. If you pause the play right when the back catches the ball it would seem very obvious that the play will go for maybe 10 yards with Trent tackling him at that point.
Trent manages to run towards the sideline and the back cuts straight upfield, almost running exactly where Trent was initially standing.
I had our crew rewind that play to watch it right after it happened and it was just amazing how poorly Trent took himself right out of that play.
That guy just dumbfounds me 3-4 times per game. It is truly ridiculous.
If I had a voice in the Michigan locker room it would be me havign a sit down with Michigan's SR or returning starters in the Secondary. it was sad. Like walking away from that game must've left them saddened as to their whole outlook on life kind of sad.
I know exactly the play you're talking about. I was just as frustrated with you, seeing JT run over to where BG absolutely SPLATTED the RB. Me and a buddy watching the game were like "dude, YOU take the QB!" Blown assignment. 5th year player. SO frustrating to see that.
Go Blue
when he said "buy a clue, buddy. New scheme or not..."
ShockFX seems to think that the marginally new defensive scheme excuses the kids' lack of tackling, taking poor angles, etc?
Go Blue
I believe what I said is that new players learning new schemes are prone to overthinking and not reacting quickly, hence being a step behind and missing tackles taking bad angles, hesitating, etc. And by new players I mean our Linebackers and Safeties, which are the amazingly important against Spread teams (like the 2 that have beat us) or holding against a vertical passing game when max protect is on (ND).
Gsimms, IIRC, supported the idea that our linebackers are much better in the 3-4 rather than the 4-3 because they have fewer responsibilities, react quicker, and play faster.
Also, the game has changed in the past 3/4 years. We still have personell to stop the Wisconsins of the world, but not the linebackers that can play against the spread. The '06 and '07 recruiting classes were either terrible or injury/transfer prone (Forcier, Mallett, Schiafano, Zirbel, Boren, etc). We have a huge lack of quality sophomores and juniors. This is very evident on offense where our would have been Senior WRs are gone, the OL is rocked by no Boren, Zirbel, or Schiafano (was a 4 star in 06 but quit football or something) and no 5th year seniors, TE is headcase Carson Butler and RB Minor can't stop fumbling. This is also glaring on defense in the linebacking (Ezeh was a 3* btw) and safeties.
So while the new scheme is not a huge deal in and of itself, when a new defensive scheme adds decision making to the weakest parts of the team (LB, S), even if it's only a slight change from the last year, you have the issue that pushes it over the edge. When linebackers and safeties are making mental mistakes all game long, you end up with big plays against you.
First, I never implied M deserves 10 points just for showing up. My point was that M is a program that should be able to field players who can play smart, assignment football. Yes, this happened under English and Herrmann, too. I just expected Shafer to make a bigger impact because I though he was a marked improvement over English. So yeah, I'm such an asshole for thinking a bunch of upperclassmen, with good coaching, should know how play to play disciplined assignment defense by now.
Whatever. Fuck off right back atcha.
Go Blue
.....I have been thinking about epic UM fumblers.
Ricky Powers had these issues......he lost us a couple of games in 1993 because he could not hang on to the ball.....it torpedoed what could have been a great UM career after a nice freshmen season.
Not sure if he's worse than Minor or not, but I cant remember one guy who lost us 2 games in one season because of this issue a la Powers.
God Bless Your Cotton Pickin' Maize & Blue Hearts
I think, Kolesar, that you confused Caup with Shock.
http://www.wolverineliberationarmy.blogspot.com
Youa re correct. My bad Shockfx.
It's all good, I didn't attack back because I knew you had to mean Caup.
The play that was most representative of our difficulty defending the fake handoffs, is when they ran one in the red zone, and B Graham absolutely blew up the running back that got a fake and headed toward his side of the line. John Thompson was coming from the other side and could have tackled Juice but he obviously thought that the RB got the ball...the RB who was already in the arms of B Graham. Instead of tackling Juice just to be sure, JT runs by him and heads over toward BG who already has taken this runningback down.
I was seriously in awe about this play. I rewound it 4 times just because I was so shocked. JT knew that BG already had the guy and headed over to either celebrate or i don't know what. If he goes after Juice instead of running toward BG, its a loss of 5. Instead, they got a big gain (might have been a td, I don't remember) To me, this was the play that showed just how ineffective we were going to be against Juice and Co.
But you aren't blaming that putrid defensive performance on the offense, are you?
Michigan was still in this game until the 4th quarter. The defense gave up WAY too many big plays and points well before the game got out of hand. If the D was "pressing" at any point in the first 50 minutes of the game and blowing their assignments then that was 100% a MISTAKE on their part.
We're fucking Michigan. We have smart kids who should know how to play disciplined defnse for a full 60 minutes. We've seen Ron English's aggressive, stupid defenses. Can we please not go back there?
So yeah, this defense is NOT good. It's average. And the kids are making a lot of mental errors. At some point, coaching needs to take a little bit of responsibility for that. To RR's credit, at today's presser he said it starts with the staff, and they need to coach 'em up better. I know this is "the buck stops here" type of talk, but dammit either the kids are dumb or the coaches aren't drilling these things into their heads well enough.
Go Blue
"We're fucking Michigan. We have smart kids who should know how to play disciplined defnse for a full 60 minutes."
I forgot that because we're Michigan do we not only get 10 points at the start of each game, but when the players sign the LOI they suddenly know how to play disciplined defense. Because, you know, our team has played disciplined defense for the last 5 years right?
4 out of every 5 Troy Smith's agree, Michigan plays outstanding disciplined defense.
"I know this is "the buck stops here" type of talk, but dammit either
the kids are dumb or the coaches aren't drilling these things into
their heads well enough."
Or, you know, they are young kids learning new schemes under intense pressure performing acts you could never dream about. Get bent asshole.
with GSimmons %100. ShockFX, buy a clue buddy. New scheme or not, has nothing to do with tackling, taking angles, and covering the wr over the top in cover 2. Troy Smith, Dennis Dixon, and Juice are all very good qbs who have GREAT stats vs U of M. We make good players great in the spread and it does not seem unique to Lloyd and Co. I don't pin this purely on RRod and staff. I like him, and think he will be fine, but it amazes me how as things change, they stay the same. We would be better off forgetting about a nickel or dime package vs. the spread and add another pass rusher instead. If we are going to sacrifice the rush and give up big plays then it makes no sense. Another carry over from Lloyd and Co. is the propensity to give up big plays. We simply can't and should not be allowing 60 yard screen passes.
On offense, I dont understand why we proceed to run Mcguffie between the tackles. Especially on the goal line. He is tentative and small. He him to the edge where he can do damage. For all my bitching, I still have faith that the program is heading in the right direction. Any time you have that many 18-19 year old freshmen on the field at one time it is going to be ugly. 6-6 is looking like a really tall order right now. Go Blue!
First, I agree with Gsimms interpretation of the defense. What I don't get is how people are bemoaning that either A) These problems didn't exist under Carr, or B) If they do acknowledge they existed they bitch that Rich Rod hasn't totally solved them in 5 games when the teams that beat us were excellently executed spreads (Illinois, Utah) or holy shit debacle (ND).
I think, and this is just me, the reason we give up 60 yard screen passes is that the defense consists of a bunch of players that played for Lloyd for 4 years. Those are the same shitty LBs and Safeties we've had for years.
A good defense calms an offense and a good offense calms a defense. Once one starts to fade the other starts to think that they need to make up the difference. Then comes overly aggressive plays > out of position > big play for you or them. Last saturday we seen big plays by us, but against Ill it was them.
_____________________________________________________________ I'm constipated...
Couldn't give a shit.
Michigan has had 20 fumbles and lost 11 of them. There were no fumbles at all against Miami, FYI.
Threet is the fumbling leader, with eight altogether and four lost. (Sheridan has one fumble, recovered by M.) We also have three lost fumbles on returns (Mathews, Shaw, Trent) and two fumbles on returns recovered by M (Cissiko, Warren).
Now to the heart of the matter. On rushing plays, McGuffie, Grady, and Odoms have lost one fumble each, Minor has had three fumbles, one recovered by M.
McGuffie: 1 fumble in 84 carries -- 1.2% fumble rate
Minor: 3 fumbles in 13 carries -- 23% fumble rate
Grady: 1 fumble in 12 carries -- 8.3% fumble rate
Odoms: 1 fumble in 3 carries -- 33% fumble rate
This last statistic is deceiving, though, because this does not take into account his 23 receptions and 10 kick returns. If we recalculate as fumbles per touch, including McGuffie's 12 receptions and Minor's 2, here are the new percentages:
McGuffie: 1 fumble in 96 touches -- 1% fumble rate
Odoms: 1 fumble in 36 touches -- 2.8% fumble rate
Minor: 3 fumbles in 15 touches -- 20% fumble rate
Grady: 1 fumble in 12 touches -- 8.3% fumble rate
Thanks, that's some good work.
Wow, 3 fumbles in 15 ball touches. Ouch.
NOT quality ball touches if I do say so myself.
No question, Jim.
http://bleorgblog.blogspot.com/
are getting so many touches over Minor and Grady.
but I believe the one fumble credited to McGuffie was on a piss-poor pitch from Threet that he had no chance to catch, let alone cover.
We're just average. The only unit we have that is above average is the D-Line, and when they are not applying pressure then our poor linebacker and safety play is exposed.
Threet is a below average talent for a Michigan QB. The talent on our OL is average at best for the Big Ten; the marginal guys we hoped would never have to see the field are starting (outside Schilling who is not yet at expectations). Our WR and RBs are above average in talent, but that is moot with a poor OL. With the QB, since it is only one person, you can expect games that fall significantly above (Wiscy 2nd half) or below (ND) the mean in terms of performance. But with the OL it is unlikely that all five will have games above their average at the same time. So we can fare well against poor defensive teams, but will be dominated by average and good teams.
Average teams fight to finish 6-6. With a couple of good bounces maybe even 8-4. Every freakin' bounce has gone against us this year...maybe we're just saving the good karma for next year.
you actually think 8-4 is attainable?! lol! that's priceless! 6-6, at this point, is rich too! thank-you michigan fan for making my day! you should be 1-4, and except for an incompetent wisconsin team, you would be. as a notre dame fan who suffered through last year, let me tell you that i am savoring the train wreck that is the 2008 michigan wolverine football team!
Thanks for the belly laugh. Can I get whatever you're taking? Please. M would have crushed nd except for all the turnovers. nd should have lost the week before except for a fumble at the goal line.
It is what it is!
"Threet is a below average talent for a Michigan QB."
Except he's not below average. He's on his 3rd system in 3 years, and has no Oline and a bunch of freshman around him. What, exactly, would make you think Drew Henson as a freshman would be that much better? Or, more to the point, if Mallett was QB this year would things be different?
On a play-action ball fake the RB KNOWS he's not getting the ball. But RR's offense has that exchange as an OPEN possibility. So we've now seen at least twice where the RB "thought" he was supposed to take the ball (McGuffie vs. Utah) and once where he didn't "realize" he was getting the ball (Shaw vs. ILL). Both times led to dumb, debilitating turnovers.
Isn't this an aspect of RR's offense that will continue to be a very risky exchange that we should expect will lead to more fumbles for years to come?
Go Blue
if you are familiar with it. It is the QB's responsibility to either give it or take it depending on the read and the RB gets his arms into postion to take the ball every play. With time, practice, and getting familiar with each other the hand-off will become a lot easier to handle. Even to the point were the RB, just by feel, will be able to tell if the QB will keep it or give it.
......said the high school QB that ran the triple option.
_____________________________________________________________ I'm constipated...
Couldn't give a shit.
Dont matter at all, if you play your responsiblities and tackle all the elements on a play with a fake, you dont have a problem... Juice's ball fakes were ineffective when the defense was playing as a unit. Once they started pressing becasue of offensive woes, they started trying to make every tackle themselves, and started looking like an English defense vs the spread....
www.gsimmons85.blogspot.com
The times we played with disciple, we blew up even their most dangerous option plays (that damn triple-option screen bullshit they killed us on a few times). It's the difference between a 1 yard loss and a 50-yard gain. As a side note, the same thing happened to Wisconsin against OSU on the last play when TP scored. They got overly aggressive and lost discipline.
excuse the defense, IMO. I have the highest respect for gsimmons but I have seen a lot of this rationale the last couple of days, that the offense was the cause (or major contributor to) the defensive breakdowns. I don't buy it. the offense couldn't have been worse 1st half Wisc. but the defense was solid and performed. I think Illinois stepped up their game 2nd half and we couldn't do the same. Step up and perform.