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The Situation: Hockey Comment Count

Brian

2/27/2009 – Michigan 6, Ferris State 1 – 25-10, 19-8 CCHA
2/28/2009 – Michigan 4, Ferris State 0 – 26-10, 20-8 CCHA

mitera-022809_300

hey-na, hey-na

Everyone held serve this weekend, with Michigan and Notre Dame both sweeping inferior opponents. The critical comparison remains as grim as it was last week (PWR rankings from Sioux Sports, as usual):

Pts Michigan vs. Notre Dame Pts
0 0.5711 RPI 0.5821 1
1 1 H2H 1 1
0 0.6000
9-6-0		 TUC 0.5556
5-4-0		 0
0 0.7407
20-7-0		 COP 0.8269
20-3-3		 1
1   Total   3

I could break every category down in detail, or I could just give you the upshot: Notre Dame basically has a two-game lead on Michigan. If they bomb out of the CCHA playoffs in the second round Michigan can pass them. That's unlikely. The best team they could face in the second round is UNO, which has a –14 goal differential compared to ND's +43. The other option is for ND to lose twice at the Joe while Michigan wins the CCHA, which is more plausible but still a slim window.

So it's best to just accept the fact that Michigan is either a 2-seed or getting shipped.

Compounding the bad vibes is Denver's flight up into a tie with Michigan despite 1) being way back in RPI and 2) splitting this weekend. DU got a lot of fortunate results around the TUC cliff and now owns that point along with common opponents, which overrules the, you know, season. So they win that comparison with Michigan and are currently the #3 overall seed with Michigan slipping to #4. With nine relevant games sitting in the last four RPI slots, this comparison is going to be hugely unstable until the end of the season.

Slipping to the last #1 seed doesn't really matter, as any spot behind ND results in getting shipped and PWR's just going to throw up some random stuff at the end when it comes to the brackets.

The Whole Situation

Michigan's PWR status by category (some "lock win" teams may not be TUCs at the end of the season but Michigan will win the comparison with whoever replaces them):

  • Lock Wins: Air Force, Alaska, BC, Cornell, Lowell, CC, Minnesota, UMD, Mankato, UNH, North Dakota, OSU, Princeton, RIT, SCSU, St Lawrence, Wisconsin, Yale
  • Lean Michigan: Miami, Northeastern, Vermont
  • Tossup: Denver
  • Lean Opponent: ND
  • Lock Losses: BU

Okay, that's a pretty good situation. Michigan is guaranteed to be at least a #2 seed and it'll take some doing to not be a #1:

  • Miami has basically lost the M comparison if Michigan sweeps its first-round playoff opponent; even a head-to-head victory wouldn't be enough to move things since H2H games don't count in either of  the other categories. This is a near-lock.
  • Vermont has COP but is well back in TUC and about a game and a half back in RPI.
  • Northeastern loses COP and it would take some fortunate playoff matchups for any chance of that changing; they'd have to sweep BC to take TUC and that would remain precarious depending on the results of conference tourneys.

The upshot: unless Michigan fails to make or gets swept at the Joe, the only thing that can prevent M from being a one-seed is sustained hot streaks from Northeastern and Denver coupled with unfavorable results near the TUC cliff. They have a one-game lead, basically, with few opportunities to lose it.

Things That Aren't Math

It's worth noting that since Michigan finished trundling to a 9-7 start, they've caught fire. They're 17-3 since, and two of the losses were one goal games featuring not one but two obviously incorrect decisions on goals. Michigan dominated those games, outshooting ND 38-22 and Ohio State 37-25. The only game that Michigan has just straight-up lost since November was, bizarrely, a home game against last-place Bowling Green.

And they did all that without Mark Mitera, the captain and last year's INCH defenseman of the year. Mitera returned to the ice this weekend and put up two points. Even if he was rusty—and though I didn't see the game @ Ferris most commenters at USCHO said he was to blame for the lone Bulldog goal of the weekend—he's got three weeks to round into shape before the NCAA tournament arrives.

So… yeah. It appears this team is in position almost as good as last year's team to make the Frozen Four and, hopefully, break the painful streak of semifinal exits. Though they don't have the elite All-American sorts on the top line they did last year, they're fast and tough defensively and almost unbelievably deep on the blueline. My excitement levels are getting dangerously high. I worry about what happens if Michigan goes down a goal without a Hensick sort on the team, but 17-3 with an asterisk is 17-3 with an asterisk. One team in twenty has outplayed Michigan. One.

Comments

wooderson

March 2nd, 2009 at 3:07 PM ^

I think there actually is something to be said for being #3 as opposed to #4. Being #4 means playing BU in all likelihood in the semis. BU is the one team I think Michigan fans really don't want to see, at least not until the final. Luckily according to USCHO Michigan should stay ahead of Denver as long as they don't lose before the CCHA final.

Joined: 07/28/2008

MGoPoints: 343

Yinka Double Dare

March 2nd, 2009 at 5:21 PM ^

It would be Bridgeport, as BU is closer to Manchester and likely would be put there. Yale (Bridgeport), New Hampshire (Manchester) and Minnesota are all host schools that have to be put in their respective regionals. I think that presuming Notre Dame doesn't blow it in the CCHA tourney allowing us to seize Grand Rapids, we're probably better off being the #3 seed and going to Minneapolis, but ONLY if Minnesota continues their crap play and doesn't make the tournament. I do not want us anywhere near that regional if Minnesota finds its form again and vaults itself into the tournament, as that regional is played at Mariucci if I remember correctly and gives them a monster advantage. They have what should be a sweep this weekend (Michigan Tech is terrible), followed by a home series for the opening round of the WCHA tourney. We need them to either honk that, or tank at the Final Five.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 9743

casmooth

March 2nd, 2009 at 5:06 PM ^

I like the momentum this team has entering the tournaments. In addition, I really like our current goaltender situation. unlike Sauer, Hogan is able to shake off a bad goal and not let it affect him. He has also proven himself as not being prone to the occasional weak goal. Sure, we don't have any 'all-stars' on this team, but the depth at D is something we have not had in quite some time. I don't expect I will see anything remotely similar to the collapse we had in the first period against ND last year in Denver with this team. As long as we can score a couple goals each night, we can beat anyone in the nation. We won't be giving up too many goals with our current squad. Is anyone planning on going to any of the NCAA tourney this year? I must admit, I was a little disappointed with the UofM representation in Denver last year, and am hoping the distance had something to do with it. All in all, I like our chances, as we are peaking at the right time of the year. GO BLUE.

Joined: 11/21/2008

MGoPoints: 582

lhglrkwg

March 2nd, 2009 at 10:53 PM ^

my excitement level is excessively high. we have been on a roll since the first series of december and we haven't been on a roll like winning games a bunch of games 2-1. we've been crushing on offense in most of the games (especially at home), hogan consistently gives 1 or 2 a game which works nicely when you scored 4-6, and the PK unit seems to have stepped forward light-years. knock on wood, we should be a reeeeally good tourny team

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 87818