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The Situation: Basketball

By Brian — March 2nd, 2009 at 1:36 PM — 33 comments
Filed under:
  • basketball
  • bubble watch
  • wisconsin

maya-bubble gopher

Jamiemac has beaten me to it, so the 1,000-foot summary:

The Wolverines probably had the most neutral week of any of the bubble contenders, evening out a great win over Purdue with a good-looking loss to Wisconsin. They did not surge like Providence, nor did they crater a la Kentucky and Florida.

A total of 36 brackets on the Bracket Matrix have been updated since Michigan’s win last Thursday night over Purdue. The good news: Half of those brackets include Michigan. The bad news: Most have not updated yet to include yesterday’s loss at Wisconsin. In fact, only five brackets have been updated since last night and the Wisconsin loss. None of those include the Wolverines.

All of the updated ones have Michigan on the cusp of the field; you have to think that a road win over a Minnesota team that either is in the tourney or will barely miss it would move Michigan up enough to grab a bid. It looks like the conventional wisdom that solidified at the beginning of the conference season—.500 will do it—should hold as long as 1) Michigan doesn't gack a first-round Big Ten tourney game and 2) there are not extensive hijinks in conference tourneys. With vanishingly few mid-majors looking like candidates for at-large bids scenario 2 doesn't have a high probability of coming to fruition. Still, you're in favor of Butler, Gonzaga, Siena, and the two leading A-10 schools until the moment they're knocked out of their conference tournaments, at which point they become FRAUDS(!).

As for the Wisconsin game: Periods of zero defense at the beginning of the first half and zero offense at the beginning of the second doomed them. They got crushed on the boards. Manny was very, very good but could have been a tiny bit more efficient. I let out a frustrated f-bomb when Sims missed an open, potentially tying three, and that was that.

I'm not upset or anything, just frustrated. Everything pointed to the team Michigan's had the entire year, one that intersperses moments of brilliance with things like that Amaker-like possession with around two minutes left. Michigan aimlessly chucked it around the perimeter for 25 seconds and ended up airballing a three as the shot clock expire. That reminded me of the good old days, and by "good old days" I mean "I am poking my eyes out with a stick." OTOH, Sims was making NBA-style turnaround jumpers and Manny was rebounding like a rebounding champion and they clawed themselves out of a hole that seemed surely fatal to actually lead at the half. I am remarkably serene about the team's fate and the program's future; that seems to directly correlate with walk-ons at the point and the only scholarship senior getting stapled to the bench.

I still don't get the rotation. Anthony Wright was dusted off and inserted for periods in both halves and did nothing in particular; Jevohn Shepherd couldn't get off the bench, etc etc etc. I've made this observation/complaint before. It probably doesn't matter nearly as much as I talk about it. It's just odd, is all.

Insert complaint about inconsistency of refereeing here. CJ Lee getting a foul for obstructing some Wisconsin guy's path when Wisconsin guys have been doing that all game immediately followed by a Manny Harris drive on which he is pawed at twice without a call is this game's shining WTF moment.

Many people are unfamiliar with the rules of causality. …But who am I to defy many people? I have been urged by multiple folks to forgo a Minnesota liveblog because of The Liveblog Curse. This is a transparently silly thing to believe in and a transparently silly thing to accede to, but the chorus of complaints is strong and I'm not in the business of intentionally pissing off readers. So the best thing to do is to wash my hands of the decision and leave it up to the readership at large.

Determine our fate, O Reader:

poll by twiigs.com
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March 2nd, 2009 at 2:11 PM
#2
Other Chris
Other Chris's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1213
Hmmm

I voted Coner because I'm all about the comedy third option, but I'm thinking I should have waited and voted yes because people, this is nuts.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 2:36 PM
(Reply to #2) #3
Yinka Double Dare
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 6247
You'll love our nuts!

You'll love our nuts!

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March 2nd, 2009 at 2:19 PM
#4
Rush N Attack
Rush N Attack's picture
Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 556
I'm guessing there will be more....

"NO" votes, but Brian will have a "CIL" anyway.

Ha!

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March 2nd, 2009 at 2:22 PM
#5
Tacopants
Tacopants's picture
Joined: 07/06/2008
MGoPoints: 2714
Hmm...

Dewey Wins!

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March 2nd, 2009 at 2:22 PM
#6
Amazin-Blue
Amazin-Blue's picture
Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 0
Causality

I grew a goatee and Michigan won the Citrus Bowl against Florida!

This is not nuts!!

(Of course, the goatee was not so great for last year's football -- obviously goatees only work for Lloyd not RR.)

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March 2nd, 2009 at 5:10 PM
(Reply to #5) #7
Ernis
Ernis's picture
Joined: 09/23/2008
MGoPoints: 2554
Not nuts at all

For my part, I contributed to the Red Wings winning the Stanley Cup last year... but that is a long story. Let's just say, the Angry-Yet-Pacifiable Hockey Gods were clearly pleased with the sacrifice

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March 2nd, 2009 at 2:26 PM
#8
brian -- not th...
Joined: 01/20/2009
MGoPoints: 27
a vote for no liveblog

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal's_Wager

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March 2nd, 2009 at 2:48 PM
#9
mjb
mjb's picture
Joined: 01/03/2009
MGoPoints: 199
curse

anyone with a Michigan degree who thinks that a Live Blog can affect the outcome of the game should immediately surrender that document.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 2:52 PM
(Reply to #8) #10
tubauberalles
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1101
And stop going to church too

eom

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March 2nd, 2009 at 3:17 PM
(Reply to #8) #11
His Dudeness
Joined: 11/24/2008
MGoPoints: -104
That makes sense.

That makes sense.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 4:14 PM
(Reply to #8) #12
wile_e8
wile_e8's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 6033
What about believing in the

What about believing in the Angry Michigan Safety Hating God?

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March 2nd, 2009 at 6:53 PM
(Reply to #8) #13
Noah
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 111
That's completely besides the

That's completely besides the point. The issue is not causation, it's correlation. Sports fandom is completely irrational and filled with superstition - and that's not a bad thing!

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March 2nd, 2009 at 2:50 PM
#14
Jeff
Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 1432
Coner

So more people would prefer to see the Coner as our QB (or point guard perhaps?) than have a liveblog. That reminds me of the Seinfeld joke about how public speaking is the number 1 fear in the US.

"People would rather be the guy in the coffin, than the one giving the eulogy."

Yes, I know that a vote for Coner doesn't actually mean they want him as the QB.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 3:22 PM
#15
Sgt. Wolverine
Sgt. Wolverine's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 3707
This sudden rash of

This sudden rash of rationality is strange.

I'll say what I said in another thread: fandom is more about emotion than logic, so correlation is king. If not having a liveblog makes people feel better about the game, there's nothing wrong with that. I doubt most of the people voting against liveblogs genuinely believe the liveblog changes the game.

So let's not criticize fans for being emotional fans who would feel better without a liveblog instead of logical onlookers who think about things like causality in connection to their favorite team.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 3:35 PM
#16
Michigan Arrogance
Michigan Arrogance's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 15317
coner

> yes to a CiL

OMG people, closed timelike loops DNE.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 3:57 PM
#17
Dan Man
Dan Man's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 762
No offense

but it's insane to think that having a live blog causes weakness in our shooting and rebounding.

Brian - please - be a leader and not a follower here. You shouldn't allow for tyranny by democracy. Think about Constitutional principles here.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 4:06 PM
(Reply to #14) #18
His Dudeness
Joined: 11/24/2008
MGoPoints: -104
Here.

Here.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 4:13 PM
#19
Wide Open
Wide Open's picture
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 1053
Aye. Coner.

Eventually we're going to have regression to the mean (or in this case *pro*gression to the mean), and liveblogs will lead directly to flawless victory and a national championship.

Therefore a liveblog could be CRUCIAL to our short-term success...

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March 2nd, 2009 at 4:19 PM
#20
YoungGeezy
YoungGeezy's picture
Joined: 08/01/2008
MGoPoints: 2032
Those who vote no...

...will be Champions.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 4:20 PM
#21
medals
medals's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 545
my avatar . . .

requires me to say: Let's dynamite the Gophers!

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March 2nd, 2009 at 4:49 PM
#22
Ernis
Ernis's picture
Joined: 09/23/2008
MGoPoints: 2554
It's disturbing

how many of you outspokenly follow a materialist, linear-causation paradigm. I shall say this much: It is insanity! To think that the outcome of a given situation can only be determined by factors of which you are immediately aware and make sense within the pathetically limited capabilities of human understanding is naive at best. In this case, it could be disastrous.

The evidence speaks for itself; because you cannot draw a causal "line" between the liveblog and the outcome of the game does not necessarily indicate that such a relationship does not exist; rather, it may simply reflect a lapse in your understanding! Imagine that!

Perhaps a causal relationship is highly unlikely (I'll admit it) but with consequences so grave on the line, are you really willing to take the chance? And for what? The benefits are marginal for most, significant for the minority that cannot watch the games; but would you rather get up-to-the-minute info on us losing, or learn of our intrepid victory after the fact?

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March 2nd, 2009 at 5:24 PM
(Reply to #20) #23
Sgt. Wolverine
Sgt. Wolverine's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 3707
Actually, the liveblogs

Actually, the liveblogs aren't THAT informative. The audio from mgoblue.com or the live scoreboards on sportsline or espn will keep you up to date just fine. The liveblogs are great for inside jokes and fan analysis, which may or may not be reliable and useful.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 6:49 PM
(Reply to #20) #24
Noah
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 111
correlation

There may not be causation, but there sure is correlation! And that's good enough for me.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 5:04 PM
#25
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
Well, 68% of more than 2,000

Well, 68% of more than 2,000 votes are "No." And if you toss out the Coner non-votes, it's 82% for "No." Just consider this: if you host a liveblog and we lose, you will hear about it forever.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 5:07 PM
(Reply to #21) #26
Ernis
Ernis's picture
Joined: 09/23/2008
MGoPoints: 2554
Better yet

If no liveblog is hosted and we win, Brian will be a hero!

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March 2nd, 2009 at 6:16 PM
(Reply to #22) #27
Amazin-Blue
Amazin-Blue's picture
Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 0
Yeah But

Wouldn't that also mean no more live blogs -- EVER!!

(Until we lose, without one??)

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March 2nd, 2009 at 6:52 PM
#28
Starko
Starko's picture
Joined: 10/08/2008
MGoPoints: 594
What do Anthony Wright and liveblogs have in common?

They are both completely useless and I hope not to see for the Minnesota game.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 7:44 PM
#29
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
My working theory is that the

My working theory is that the Liveblog Curse is related to our tourney drought. When we finally return to the tournament, our Liveblog demons will be destroyed and it will be safe to host them again.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 8:00 PM
#30
M-Dog
M-Dog's picture
Joined: 07/06/2008
MGoPoints: 147119
I Voted No on the Liveblog.

I'm not Catholic, but I still don't tell jokes about the Pope's funny hat. Just in case, you know?

Same thing.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 9:02 PM
#31
RDDGoblue
RDDGoblue's picture
Joined: 09/07/2008
MGoPoints: 914
Liveblog vote

I voted yes on the liveblog, because superstition is silly. But for the record, I really wanted to vote Coner.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 9:24 PM
#32
dabadeeblue
dabadeeblue's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 112
No.

That is all.

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March 2nd, 2009 at 10:42 PM
#33
KidA2112
Joined: 10/18/2008
MGoPoints: -22
Prize???

My No vote pushed it to 69%, do I win something?

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March 3rd, 2009 at 3:41 AM
#34
cbuck54
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: -1
Vote NO

The Sri Lankan cricket team was attacked. This is getting worse. Who knows whats next?

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