Seeding Projections

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March 7th, 2009 at 10:44 PM
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MC Hammer
Joined: 07/10/2008
MGoPoints: 6
Seeding Projections

With the win today (almost) securing a bid in the tourney, how do you think M will be seeded? Brian seems to think 11, but obviously it all depends on how we do during the tourney.

Here's my opinion on the seed we'll get if:

Lose opening BTT game: 11-12, and if to Indiana, be on the hot seat

Win 1 game (Iowa) - 10-11

Win 2 games (Iowa, Illinois)- 9-10

Win 3 games (Iowa, Illinois, Purdue) - 7-8

Win tournament (Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, MSU) - 5-6

A 5-6 if M wins might seem high, but my thoughts go back to Syracuse in 2006, when they were on the bubble before winning the Big East tournament, which vaulted them to a 6 seed. I think the most likely scenario will be 2 games, as I believe that this team is really starting to come together at the most important time of year. If they win 2 games, they'll be 21-13, with 7 wins against the RPI top 50.

Also, more love from Jay Bilas on College Gameday. He really has done a 180 when it comes to Michigan.

So what does everyone think about what we'll do in the BTT, and what seed we'll get?

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March 7th, 2009 at 11:27 PM | See Yinka's post... (Score:1)
Tater
Tater's picture
Joined: 08/13/2008
MGoPoints: 10378

...in the diaries. It is some great work. It answered every seeding scenario question I could have come up with.

 

 

 

March 7th, 2009 at 11:45 PM | I think you're being a little (Score:1)
MaizeAndBlueWahoo
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Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 11821

I think you're being a little bit optimistic. No way in hell we'll be a 5 seed even with a Big Ten title in hand. Not with 12 losses, some of them pretty ugly. Besides, I never ever ever want to be a 5 seed. 5 seed = NICK SHERIDAN.

I think 11 is a fair default. Winning one game in the BTT won't help, since we're supposed to do that. Two wins might get us to 10. I think the ceiling is 8 for winning the title. 7 at the absolute tippy-top. Definitely not 5 or 6. Honestly, though, there's no difference between the 7 through 10 seeds. You get a game with an evenly-matched team and then you get beat down by a juggernaut. I'd actually rather be an 11. Looking at Bracketology I'm not real scared by most of those 6 seeds.

"We've beaten Michigan the last four years.  So where's the threat?"

- Mark Dantonio

Blogging the Virginia Cavaliers at http://fromoldvirginia.blogspot.com/<

March 8th, 2009 at 12:29 AM | Ya at this point I'd rather (Score:1)
Nate-Dawg
Nate-Dawg's picture
Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 20

Ya at this point I'd rather be an 11 or 12 seed----then we wouldn't see a 1 or 2 seed until the sweet 16. I think its better to be an 11/12 than anywhere from 5-10 at this point.

By the way, it feels so good to talk about this subject. It's been too long.

I miss Keith Jackson.

March 8th, 2009 at 12:34 AM | Projecions (Score:1)
tpilews
tpilews's picture
Joined: 10/17/2008
MGoPoints: 1745

Is this like the spanish version?

March 8th, 2009 at 11:49 AM | Fixed. Mi mal. (Score:1)
MC Hammer
Joined: 07/10/2008
MGoPoints: 6

Fixed. Mi mal.

March 8th, 2009 at 1:22 AM | 05-06 Syracuse (Score:1)
SilverSD
Joined: 02/25/2009
MGoPoints: 0

People keep dismissing the idea that if we win the Big 10 Tourney we'd jump to a 5 or 6, but his Orangemen comparison is dead on.

Heading into the 2006 Big East Tournament, Syracuse was 19-11, 7-9 in the Big East and if I remember correctly, one of the last few teams in the field. They won 4 games in 4 nights (two of them on last second Gerry McNamara buckets) and vaulted all the way up to a 5 seed. They did promptly lose to Texas A&M in the First Round, but it isn't unprecedented for a bubble team to shoot way up with a tournament championship.

EDIT TO ADD: My first post. I recently discovered this site and as a fan of all things Wolverines, I decided to stop lurking and start adding my two cents.

Also, that 19-11, 7-9 is eerily similar to 19-12, 9-9.

March 8th, 2009 at 10:45 AM | I'm curious as to what scenario in the Big Ten- (Score:1)
Blue Balls
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Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 101

Tournament might actually hurt Michigan's chances of making the dance? Like Magnus pointed out in another blog, Michigan to this point hasn't been selected. Lets face it, when it comes to selecting teams for the dance, crazy things happen each year. I do believe at this point Michigan gets in but I'm concerned that the Big Ten Tourn. could actually hurt Michigan's chances. Should Michigan Fans be concerned?

March 8th, 2009 at 10:52 AM | Losing to Indiana (Score:1)
ChalmersE
Joined: 11/19/2008
MGoPoints: 1068

would hurt, but that won't happen unless they wind up with a 6 seed. Short of that (or maybe a loss to Iowa), they're in. Sagarin who has actually had Michigan fairly low all year, now has Michigan at 38 with the 8th toughest schedule in the country. Also, if you throw out margin of victory, which I believe the NCAA does, Michigan is in the 20's. Michigan also is 4-5 against the top 25 and 8-9 against the top 50. Barring a very bad loss in the opening round, they're definitely in -- and they may be in anyway. If they win their first round game, I wouldn't be shocked with a 9 seed.

March 8th, 2009 at 11:47 AM | Defense of 5-6 seed. (Score:1)
MC Hammer
Joined: 07/10/2008
MGoPoints: 6

FWIW, a BTT championship (which i do not expect to happen, but lets dream for a moment), would leave us hypothetically at 23-12

Begin most likely irrelevant speculation:

Assuming that our opponents are as I listed (Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, MSU), that would give us 3 more wins against top 50 teams. As long as all the other top 50 teams we beat stay in the top 50, it would leave us 9-9 against the top 50. In addition, those 3 games would be a boost to an already tough SOS. The committee looks at tough road/neutral wins and how you are playing at the end of the season.

FWIW, Pomeroy had Syracuse at 51 at the end of the season (including the BET and NCAA tournament. He has M at 54 now, before hypothetical BTT championship. M in this scenario is a little bit better than Syracuse in 2006.

End speculation.

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