SEARCHBITS XXI: THE TIELLUMINATI Comment Count

Brian

harbaugh-baalke[1]

Harbaugh wears ties for these kinds of events

IS IT HAPPENING? More unconfirmed reports that it's happening, including a number of people sending me a receipt for ties from Van Boven—a local upscale men's retailer—destined for one Jim Harbaugh in California. HE GOT SOME TIES is in the THEY'RE SHOPPING FOR A HOUSE vein of circumstantial evidence, except… somewhat less convincing. But I'm pretty sure Jim Harbaugh just got some ties from Ann Arbor. Or at least someone who knows him sent him some.

Please do not send Jim Harbaugh ties unless he's coming back, readers.

In less speculative connections: players on the team are pretty optimistic. Some recent grads have the same agent as Harbaugh and they are feeling good about it, and it's filtering out as they tell the people around them. The telephone chain is pretty long here (Harbaugh to agent to recent graduate to current player) and there's a natural inclination to turn "it might be happening" into IT'S HAPPENING along the way, but… yeah, players on the team are thinking it's happening.

I have totally unconfirmed reports that there's a verbal agreement and the only thing that could nix it would be an NFL team coming in with a ludicrous deal. I don't know if that should make you feel better or worse, because a ludicrous NFL deal is definitely a possibility. Conflicting reports on whether Hackett and Harbaugh have actually met/talked or if this is still at the agent stage. I don't buy the verbal agreement bit—too much telephone for that to be meaningful.

I can state that there is stuff going down at the regents/AD level, with meetings scheduled today and Monday. It is possible some of these meetings may turn into public events. Something is happening. Is it IT?

FWIW. I find the react posted by thosewhostay7 to be pretty credible; people have been questioning whether I still buy it. I'm not saying it's gospel, but it is a data point, one that agrees with other stuff I've heard: Harbaugh is just now seriously considering his future, Michigan wants this done by January 1st, and that even if an NFL team promises him the moon the fact remains that he has an owner who is likely to meddle. "Autocracy" is in fact what college offers, for the most part. Bayesian reasoning, man: this is not as good as getting a call from Hackett but it's enough to move the needle some.

This is in conflict with the done deal stuff, yes. I think the done deal stuff is less accurate than the above. I know you don't want to hear some of it; don't shoot the messenger. My current status: considerable, but fearful optimism.

ROSS IS NOT GETTING INVOLVED IN THE BAD WAY (FOR NOW). Ross puts it out in the media that he's not interested in being an NFL suitor for Harbaugh:

Despite widespread media speculation that the Dolphins will pursue 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, owner Stephen Ross has shown no indication that he has any interest in making a coaching change, sources told the Miami Herald on Thursday.

Furthermore, the organization has no desire to be used as leverage in Harbaugh’s upcoming negotiations — which some see as inevitable based on Ross’ previous relationship with Harbaugh.

Given previous speculation that he would jump in if Michigan was out, that's good news. For now.

MORE ON TIMING. December 23rd has been kicked around as a potentially important day; it is, but not because it's Harbaugh's birthday. I mean, it is important because it's Harbaugh's birthday. If he comes that's New Christmas. In terms of the coaching search, though, it's important because it's one of two scheduled meetings between Hackett and the team. That's a point at which we might get unofficial word, or at least a vibe on whether it's happening.

The second meeting is scheduled for the 28th. You will no doubt read something into that whether I tell you to or not.

THE PRECISE NUMBER. Bruce Feldman and John U Bacon both said the Godfather money mentioned by the NFL press is not accurate. If so it's not that far off, as I've heard numbers ranging from 45 to 49 pretty consistently and Webb is saying that is the number, period. PFT is on point with their article, noting that the offer is disputed "because of course it is." This coaching search, everybody!

The number that is likely in dispute is how many years it is, as that has ranged from six to eight. Have heard that in lieu of a traditional buyout, the contract is backloaded to encourage Harbaugh to finish out the deal.

Either way we are talking Saban money, enough that if Harbaugh does stay in the NFL it isn't about said money.

LET'S READ EVERYTHING INTO PRESS CONFERENCE QUOTES. Harbaugh did not say "screw you guys, I'm going home" yesterday, but in terms of reasonable presser outcomes this was pretty good:

-Q: Have you been offered a contract by the University of Michigan?

-HARBAUGH: As you know, I only talk about the job that I have. We’ve been together a long time. Always been my policy.

-Q: Trent mentioned recently that you and he met briefly this week and agreed that you’d talk about everything at the end of this season. Was that something you asked for? How did that come about?

-HARBAUGH: As you know, Trent and I have discussions every day. So…

-Q: You said in the off-season that your intention was to coach out this contract. Is that still your intention?

-HARBAUGH: Umm… Yeah, I’ve said I’m going to finish this ’til the end. My focus is the same as the players’ focus, it’s the same as the coaches’ focus, the focus on the practice field, the focus in meetings, by our players, by our coaches and by me.

That is our focus–this football game against the San Diego Chargers. And playing well and winning. That’s where our energy and focus is.

San Francisco beat writer and licensed internet troll Tim Kawakami thought there was something a bit different with Harbaugh:

You wont have Harbs to kick around anymore? Let's read into that excessively, okay? Okay. It's agreed. Based on a licensed internet troll's opinion of Harbaugh's body language, Harbaugh is a lock. Glad we could come to this opinion together.

YOU OWE US A DOLLAR. Steve Addazio signs an extension based on rumors that Michigan might be thinking about thinking about considering making him a part of their long list. This turns into:

This development removes Addazio from the search for a new coach at Michigan, where he was considered one of the prime candidates after San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh. Michigan didn’t make direct contact with Addazio, but a source said the school reached out to gauge his interest.

My eyes roll so hardcore at that. Yes, Michigan pinged Addazio's agent. They pinged David Cutcliffe. They pinged a number of people who aren't in need of an extension right now. None of that means anything except you are on the long list. Football Scoop of course took this as evidence that their previous take on Addazio was gospel and I mean… cumong man.

A lot of this is people talking to coaches. Why would coaches know anything about Michigan's search unless they are actively involved in it? Coaches are not sources.

I AM NOT IN HARBAUGH'S BUSHES. I had to miss my weekly spot on WTKA because I'm out of town, leading to a joke about how I'm in San Francisco. I am not, please don't blame me if everything falls apart. It is not because I'm creepin'.

A REMINDER. Chatsports is not credible, even if they've moved on from the Ace Williams moniker. Good luck at prom this spring though.

ETC.: I RTed Scott Paterno saying something really dumb. RIP to da mentions. Lesson learned. Miles says some more stuff that's not quite about not coaching Michigan. Harbaugh the recruiter.

Comments

GoWings2008

December 19th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^

Brian, regarding "the number," I'm curious what you think about the recent reports that it may not be as high as originally reported.

Lots of analysts/reporters have said that even if Harbaugh says no to the deal with Michigan, the fact that they've floated the originally reported $8M+ offer to him results in a "no lose" situation.  This because another suitor will know that UM is serious. 

SO, if that number isn't as high as we thought...should UM consider making it that high at some level, through bonuses and such, to make sure that the Plan B is as good as we can make it?

EDIT:  And do you think that the lower end of the years offer is more attractive to JH, giving him flexibility in the future?

gwkrlghl

December 19th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^

but the fact that the (most reasonable) conservative position is now "Is about 50/50 to take the Michigan job" I'm feeling thinking we should all have some cautious optimism

bigbrother

December 19th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^

I think this search has been a healing episode for all of us.

Brandon is gone and his minions are soon to be.

Hoke is gone and he got to go out pretty well, considering.

Hackett has all but proven he has the pimp hand.

Harbaugh is obviously the big fish, but even if we don't land him, this time it won't be because we are stupid and can't coordinate a big time coaching search. The leaked proposal will get the interests of the plan B guys, and Sam Webb still says Miles would be the next target. I think we will come out of this ok.

In the meantime I am just enjoying the ride.

michgoblue

December 19th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^

Seems to me that there is enough Michigan-centered chatter that Michigan's side of the table thinks that this is a done deal.  But, Harbaugh is kind of a strange guy (he has been described as "flaky" by more than a few people).  So, my biggest fear is not that the NFL will outbid us, but that before he signs on the dotted line, Harbaugh will "flake" or have a change of heart.

All of that said, my current expectation is that Hackett announces to the team on 12/23 that Harbaugh has agreed to become the next coach, and makes a formal announcement later in the day.  With one game left in the season, Harbaugh could totally accept and offer (which SF would reject) to coach the last game without looking like he is bailing.

stephenrjking

December 19th, 2014 at 12:05 PM ^

I suspect a lot of the Michigan confidence is a combination of hope, non-negative feedback from JH, and a conviction that the offer is so solid that there's no way he'll turn it down. Which is to say, I'm not as optimistic, because I think Harbaugh can be swayed by an equal dollar offer from a potentially competitive NFL team. I think he wants to win a Super Bowl more than anything, and it's obviously not happening here. So a team with a good QB and/or roster is a legit threat.

Njia

December 19th, 2014 at 12:49 PM ^

A quick count of teams so far in the potential discussion of retaining Harbaugh's services that fit your description equals exactly zero, except for the possibility of Miami. That's also the same reason that this is such a tough decision. Sure, theoretically, he could stay in the NFL and reach the Super Bowl. But with Oakland? Chicago? The Jets?

The "win now" mentality of the NFL doesn't inspire much confidence that he'd be given the runway to get that dream airborne.

aiglick

December 19th, 2014 at 1:48 PM ^

To be fair if Harbaugh comes and is getting $49 million in six or eight years it is more than fair for us to expect at least one Big Ten Championship within the first five years and maybe two or three appearances in the BTCG. We basically face the same BIG that OSU and MSU do and if he comes three of those five years will be OSU and MSU at home.

I think he could be the one and yeah I'm not going to pull the cart before the horse but I'm just saying we should be epecting big things within five years also. Now, maybe the NFL is more rediculous and expects things in three years but for Saban type money we're offering him we're going to need some hardware.

Edit: all of this is hypothetical of course since this is not a done deal but it does sound good.

Gene

December 19th, 2014 at 2:04 PM ^

Of course that will be the expectation, but quick turnarounds are a lot easier to achieve in college, at least amonst "elite" schools - you can bring the (hitherto wasted) institutional advantages to bear, which effectively means you're competing against a lot less teams; players are more malleable, as the are still early in their formulative years; and of course a team 3 years from now will bear almost no resemblance to the current team, simply from graduation and recruiting turnover. 

stephenrjking

December 19th, 2014 at 12:01 PM ^

I'm seeing more M fans totally convinced that it's happening (which is fine) rip on pretty reasonable NFL media guys who disagree. While I agree that the NFL guys aren't hearing the same info Brian is, it's worth noting that these NFL guys are not scrubs. If they were, someone else with better practices and sources would swoop in and supplant them. My point is: be careful about arrogant bashing of NFL types just because they're not as optimistic as we are. We are hopefully right; however, we have serious confirmation bias. Remember, in each of the last two national elections, one side has been stunned by the results because they chose to trust in (reasonable!) sources that predicted the outcomes they were hoping for. It's a natural human tendency. Don't get too carried away.

michgoblue

December 19th, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^

This is one of the better posts of late.  I know that we all hate hearing negative views on our coaching search, but the amount of anti-NFL reporter (and even NFL) vitriol around here is silly.  Sure there are some NFL hacks that are making stuff up, as there are some Michigan hacks doing the same (chat sports?).  But, there are also a number of respected, fairly-plugged in reporters who are simply what their sources are telling them.