SEARCHBITS XIII: A COMPETITOR FOR CHEESE Comment Count

Brian

INSIDER BITS TODAY: MEH. Holding pattern time. I don't have anything specific to tell you that isn't out there already, just continued opinion that Harbaugh is very much in play and Michigan is still focused on him, with everyone else Plan B. I think we might see some movement over the weekend or early next week, especially if the 49ers are officially eliminated from the playoffs (a 49ers loss and Lions win will make it 100%).

Expect Michigan to start reaching out to potential replacements in earnest soon; that won't mean that Harbaugh's definitively out, it'll mean that he hasn't definitely said yes. Harbaugh won't have a truly clear picture of his options until the NFL season is over. He does not know what he wants to do now.

If Michigan doesn't get deeply involved with a short list over the next couple weeks that's a good sign.

Sep 15, 2012; Madison, WI, USA;  Utah State Aggies head coach Gary Andersen (left) and Wisconsin Badgers head coach Bret Bielema (right) talk during warm-ups prior to their game at Camp Randall Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

WE THOUGHT THIS WAS ASHLEY MADISON DOT COM, NOT MADISON, WISCONSIN. SEEYA.

BARRY ALVAREZ MUST SMELL LIKE ROTEL THAT'S BEEN IN THE FRIDGE SINCE THE BIG TEN WAS RELEVANT. Oregon State's shock hire of Gary Andersen after just two years—two quite successful years—at Wisconsin moves a coaching opening much closer to Michigan in both geography and prestige. Well… probably, as far as the latter goes. Wisconsin's now had coaches bug out for the post-Petrino wasteland at Arkansas and the 10th best job in the Pac-12*. I can't see that happening at Michigan.

I don't buy most of the explanations out there for Andersen's departure. Wisconsin doesn't pay its assistants like a program with their success level would be expected to, but Oregon State doesn't either. Family reasons cited by Alvarez are transparent bunk. Everyone's talking about academic issues, which I guess could be jarring as you move from Utah State, but Wisconsin's done just fine with whatever standards they've had forever. It kind of looks like Alvarez is a Brandon-esque figure hovering over his coaches. In his defense, he was a really successful football coach instead of a guy who sold cardboard disks purporting to be pizza.

Will Wisconsin's search impact Michigan? It's doubtful but not outlandishly so. After getting burned by consecutive outsiders, Wisconsin may prefer a Wisconsin Man and go for Pitt HC Paul Chryst, NC State HC Dave Doeren or Seahawks OC Darrell Bevell. If they eschew those options they might promote DC Dave Aranda, who had very shiny stats before OSU bombed them, or go with a mid-level HC not currently on Michigan's radar. It's probable that Wisconsin finds a guy without pinging anyone Michigan would ask after.

Any impact would come if both teams end up hunting coordinators, and even then it seems like the teams would split the two obvious Big Ten candidates and be happy with it. Pat Narduzzi makes more sense than Tom Herman for the Badgers: Wisconsin knows what it is on offense and wouldn't want to change it. Herman makes more sense for M because they need offensive repairs desperately.

BUT SERIOUSLY. Wisconsin should hire Bo Pelini.

NO SERIOUSLY. I'm serious. This is not just for the epic trolling it would set up.

SERIOUSLY. Seriously.

*[Colorado and WSU are worse. Probably.]

ONE OTHER POSSIBLE EFFECT. Herman and Aranda were in fact teammates at Cal Lutheran back in the day. If M does end up going for Herman and Aranda is cut loose at Wisconsin that would be an obvious option for DC.

ca07ecdab035e7290b1c2e2d3a1644ee[1]DETROIT, MI - OCTOBER 16: Jim Harbaugh head coach of the San Francisco 49ers argues with Jim Schwartz of the Detroit Lions during the NFL game at Ford Field on October 16, 2011 in Detroit, Michigan.  (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

never not funny

HARBAUGH HARBAUGH HARBAUGH. Tim Kawakami had an interesting piece on parallels between the Harbaugh-49ers rift and that between Mark Jackson and the Golden State Warriors, a post that also roped in Chris Mullin. This bit is the most directly applicable to you:

Harbaugh will not talk about the strife. Not publicly or–I believe–privately.

He tried to deny that there were any true tensions this off-season, because that’s his usual tactic, but as the stories have piled up starting from the early weeks of the regular season, Harbaugh has just generally refused to comment on the meaning of all this–and he won’t deny the possibility that management is doing it, either.

He’s not doing this as a zen practice, Harbaugh is doing this because he’s hunkered down, fighting through every day, and if management wants to conduct a campaign against him, that’s only going to sharpen his wits for the next move (while staying silent about what it might be).

Another similarity: Mullin naturally took the quiet high road because he knew he’d succeed elsewhere. I guarantee you that’s what Harbaugh feels now. …

This is all–I firmly believe–coming from 49ers management.

We know Harbaugh is talking a bit privately, but even then he plays his cards very close to the vest. He gave Charles Woodson a press conference answer when they talked…

"I spoke to him briefly, just said 'what's up,' and I almost started to get into the conversation but he kind of game me the same line he gave everybody at his press conference," Woodson said Tuesday on The Rich Eisen Show. "The well-being of his team and the well-being of his family. That was about as far into it as we were going to get."

…(since that press conference answer made the press, that was a good move). Meanwhile he's refusing to mention anything other than the next game, and he was relatively circumspect with the former M players he watched the OSU game with. I've gotten reports that he is cagey with everyone, with small cracks that may let people in on his intentions. A few people who've known him forever get Harbaugh's unvarnished thoughts—and even they don't know what he'll do.

This would explain a great deal of the disconnect between NFL reporters and the Michigan guys. Everything the NFL guys get is coming from management types who have a vested interest in Harbaugh staying in the NFL, either because they want him or want to trade him. Guys who talk to him personally get a different take.

BUT NOT CHARLES. Woodson continued:

"The way it sounds to me there's not even that one in a million," he added. "It doesn't sound too good to me.

"I guess you do have a slight chance. But man. It ain't looking good."

This is still not the opinion of people who have spent a lot of time canvassing all available information. Yikes all the same.

ON ASSISTANT SALARIES. USA Today published a database of assistant salaries, which promises to be more useful than the head coach listings. Head coaches have erratic, large bonuses that cause big swings. Those kinds of things are much rarer with assistants.

Michigan was 9th in overall assistant compensation with a relatively unbalanced structure: both coordinators were 800k+, recruiting coordinator Jeff Hecklinski was just under 300k, and everyone else around 240k. LSU was #1 in overall compensation with both coordinators at 1.3 million and their lowest-paid dude at 310.

M is almost two million dollars behind LSU in annual compensation(!). They're right on par with OSU, FWIW. Mississippi State is a million dollars back of M, on par with Colorado, Maryland, Rutgers… and Wisconsin.

Upshot: unless there's a big shift Michigan is going to be able to pay on par with everyone else. There's enough money to pay a big time coordinator for the other side of the ball if M goes with a Narduzzi/Herman type.

PLAN B. Here's a weird-ass name I don't fully believe but know they're kicking around at some level inside the department: Marvin Lewis. The Bengals are currently at the top of the AFC North but Lewis has been on precarious ground for a while now—he got a one-year extension just before this season and would likely have to be extended again. The Bengals have been on the verge of a change there for a long time. Lewis comes with all the usual NFL hangups but at his age (57) he would likely be retiring at a hypothetical college job.

Wouldn't put too much into that since a boatload of names get kicked around, but if Cinci does fire the guy keep an eye on him.

Beyond that, I've heard that you shouldn't take reports that so-and-so college coach isn't interested at all seriously. That's a good general rule. It is a better one in this specific case. I know that people who have supposedly ruled themselves out have done no such thing and would welcome sincere post-Harbaugh interest from M.

Etc.: You could read all these posts or just this one EDSBS glossary, after which you know everything I do. Shemy says time to come home.

Comments

sleeper

December 11th, 2014 at 1:49 PM ^

what is meant by "after Chirstmas"? Does it mean between Christmas and the new year or between Christmas and next years opener? My thinking is if it means before the New Year could be waiting on college coaches to play in their bowl games before making an announcement? I tend to lean toward the longer this plays out, the more likely Harbaugh will be the next coach. Here is a list of college coaches mentioned and their bowl game dates:

Mullen: 12/21

Adazio: 12/27

Stoops: 12/29

Miles: 12/29

Mora: 1/2

MGoVictory

December 11th, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^

I believe Hackett told the players that a new coach would be hired by the time they returned from Christmas break. Classes start up on Wednesday, January 7th. I would assume that football players would return to campus on the weekend of January 3th-4th.  

Indiana Blue

December 11th, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^

"Expect Michigan to start reaching out to potential replacements in earnest soon; that won't mean that Harbaugh's definitively out, it'll mean that he hasn't definitely said yes. Harbaugh won't have a truly clear picture of his options until the NFL season is over. He does not know what he wants to do now."

This is YOUR opinion only.  No one on the planet right now KNOWS what Jim Harbaugh ACTUALLY THINKS.  These CC threads are getting ponderous.  I cant wait until the decision is made so that 1,000 posters can claim they called it right !!!

Go Blue!

MGoVictory

December 11th, 2014 at 1:51 PM ^

Question: I've read many statements along the lines of "Harbaugh would have told Michigan no already if he wasn't interested" or "Hackett would have been informed of Harbaugh's non-interest if he wasn't coming". If Harbaugh has told Hackett "no", would we necessarily know? I would assume so, at least through back channels or leaks, but I am worried that he has already said "no" but we are not aware (much less "fully aware").

Granted, I sure hope this isn't the case.

 

Wendyk5

December 11th, 2014 at 2:05 PM ^

I agree with the sentiment that if he has already said no, we might not know, or be informed. I think given our voracious appetite for JH, if we heard a "no" before there was a "yes" from someone else, it would be very hard to manage the (even temporary) fallout. Plus, I don't know if Harbaugh is thinking about our, the fanbase's, well-being at this point. He might not want to come here, but he doesn't want to cut ties just in case nothing else pans out the way he's hoping. There are a lot of scenarios here. It's just very hard to be kept hanging for this long so we're all looking for the scenarios that play into the outcome that we want. 

True Blue Grit

December 11th, 2014 at 2:35 PM ^

But, it's very likely Harbaugh really doesn't know yet because he's waiting to see what all of his options are before deciding.  Maybe he wants to see if the Raiders or another team comes thru with some huge money offer and almost total control of personnel.  He knows Michigan is always there in case at least one of these NFL options doesn't materialize after the season.  If an attractive NFL offer DOES come thru, then he will have to choose which path he takes. So, this is why (IMO) he's playing it so close to the vest and Michigan is proceeding so deliberately without revealing any favorites or what we're looking for. 

MGoVictory

December 11th, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^

True. But, not the worst all-time based on average point differential:

  • Georgia State -13.58
  • Florida International -7.82
  • Florida Atlantic -6.60
  • Texas El-Paso -4.41
  • Kent State -4.41
  • Northwestern -4.31
  • UNLV -4.25
  • Wake Forest -4.17
  • Buffalo -3.88
  • Louisiana-Monroe -3.87

Northwestern is the only power 5 conference team on this list, though.

Other power 5 conference teams with negative average point differential:

  • Indiana -3.28
  • Kanasa State -1.89
  • Iowa State -1.47
  • Oregon State -0.73
  • Kansas -0.70
  • Washington State -0.02

Best positive average point differential:

  • Oklahoma 14.23
  • Michigan 13.12
  • Alabama 12.87
  • Notre Dame 12.49
  • Boise State 12.26
  • Ohio State 11.67
  • Nebraska 11.65
  • Florida state 11.22
  • Southern California 11.21
  • Penn State 11.17

michgoblue

December 11th, 2014 at 2:22 PM ^

I am a huge proponant of Herman as my choice ahead of everyone other than Harbaugh, Stoops, Miles and possibly Mora.  But, I do think that we need to reserve judgment.  The guy has done well at prior stops, but as has been pointed out, there are question marks.  Several.

That said, I am not sure that the game against the #1 team in the country with his 3rd string QB playing would move the needle much.  Sure, it is anothet data point.  But, one game shouldn't make or break the decision on him.

michgoblue

December 11th, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^

Brian, you said:  "I think we might see some movement over the weekend or early next week, especially if the 49ers are officially eliminated from the playoffs (a 49ers loss and Lions win will make it 100%)."

Is this based upon insider bits, or is this more of a speculation based upon where you think things are moving? 

True Blue Grit

December 11th, 2014 at 2:27 PM ^

I talked to a guy who knows a Wisconsin insider that said the reason Bielema left was because he and Alvarez "didn't get along".  So, Anderson leaving after only 2 years just can't be a coincidence.  I'm not sure what Alvarez is doing that is pissing off his football coaches, but active meddling seems pretty believable.  Whatever it is, he's either not doing it with Bo Ryan or the latter isn't bothered much by it. 

Stringer Bell

December 11th, 2014 at 2:43 PM ^

Alvarez wasn't a basketball coach, so he's probably not meddling the same way with Bo Ryan.  But this does give some credence to the whole "no big time coach will come here with Dave Brandon in charge" idea, if the reports are true that Brandon was a meddling AD.  It seems no coach worth their salt wants to work for a guy like that.

sj

December 11th, 2014 at 3:57 PM ^

Wisconsin has had 3 head coaches in 25 years.  Both Beilema and Andersen basically follow Alvarez' model to the same or better outcome. Bielema took over a program that Petrino had 17 -15 in the SEC and has gone 2-14 in-conference himself. Andersen is previously a spread coach who seemed to run the offense Alvarez was teaching him. In spite of very pool local talent and underpaid assistants, they're pretty clearly the #2 or #3 program in the Big 10 and get to dance in pools filled with unspent money. Now they'll get new massive O-linemen, no quarterback, and keep on keeping on. They need to hire a new coach, but I simply don't see a problem. 

UofM Die Hard …

December 11th, 2014 at 2:43 PM ^

Jim Hackett: "Its my pleasure to introduce Jim Harbaugh as the new Michigan head coach"

Applause, cheering 

Jim Harbaugh: "Thanks everyone, well......I am standing here because of two reasons, one I wanted to come home and two I want to kick some ass.......looks like 1 is off the list"  walk off stage

 

 

 

 

 

Julius 1977

December 11th, 2014 at 2:47 PM ^

I don't think that's a fair characterization of Dominoes.

The guy is gone.  MGoBlog had an impact in his removal.  All that is fine.  But we haven't heard a word from Brandon since, and continuing to piss on him doesn't look good.

Blue Balls Afire

December 11th, 2014 at 3:02 PM ^

Schiano seems like an ideal fit for the Badgers.  If Wisconsin passes on Schiano for a subjectively 'lesser' name coach, then I will have to re-evaluate my thoughts on him, which wasn't all that high, but still much higher than the prevailing sentiment of him on this board.

evenyoubrutus

December 11th, 2014 at 3:13 PM ^

I really believe that Harbaugh being so quiet about what he's planning to do has to be a positive sign. If he were really leaning towards not going to Michigan he would simply just tell people. Whereas if he has decided in his own mind that he wants the job and will take it he sure as hell wouldn't announce that to anyone as it would inhibit his bargaining power.

mgohusker

December 11th, 2014 at 3:41 PM ^

"Wisconsin should hire Bo Pelini."

Not going to happen.  Shawn Eichorst's low opinion of Bo Pelini is shared by Barry Alvarez (and NU chancellor Harvey Perlman). 

larisimilitude

December 11th, 2014 at 4:01 PM ^

I can't decide how concerned to be about the possibility that if Harbaugh does come, he'll still be lusting after NFL opportunities. If he's having a hard time making a decision, it seems to indicate that he feels he has unfinished business in the NFL.

I realize that, at the moment, that sounds like a pretty good problem for us to have. But I do wonder how long he would be content at Michigan and whether we'd be facing yet another coaching search in five-ish years.

cromartie

December 11th, 2014 at 4:57 PM ^

To give you a pro example, everyone on planet earth knew the Colts were going to release Peyton Manning and draft Andrew Luck. You could objectively look at a situation from the outside and see that that was the logical choice to make based on the money, injury, state of the franchise and the opportunities the NFL Draft that year presented.

Everyone knew this except Peyton Manning. He had no idea. He was rehabbing and preparing to enter the season as the QB of the Indianapolis Colts.

It's entirely possible that, while the media can talk to Jim Harbaugh about these possibilities, and while you may have back channel conversations galore, and reasonably so, Jim Harbaugh himself may have no idea what he wants to do because, in his mind, he's the Head Coach of the San Francisco 49ers and that's his time horizon as much as he knows about it as of this moment.

In a sense, that's how generally top tier professionals work, with conscious blinders of their place outside the organization and the challenges in front of them. It's maddening for us fans, to be sure, but in a way, a univeristy that (rightfully) considers itself top tier wants this type of candidate, no?

MStopRed

December 11th, 2014 at 5:23 PM ^

You wanna know why Gary Andersen left Wisconsin? Because he's Mormon and from Utah. As a Mormon who grew up in Michigan, let me tell you that traditional Mormons from our west do not like it in this part of the country one bit. Aside from their discomfort toward the mountain-less landscape, they can't handle how small the Mormon community is. They prefer to socialize within a circle of their own faith, which in Madison is very very small. It creates an entirely new lifestyle for his family. If he has children still in school, then that to me is the nail in the coffin. I would expect that to be the number one issue. They didn't want their kids having to grow up in a community without greater opportunities for Mormon friends

It's not really about anything more than that. Oregon is far more comfortable than Madison for a Mormon family. Especially one that is born and spent most their life in Idaho and Utah.

This is not meant in a derogatory way. It's just the truth. Trust me on that.



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Don

December 11th, 2014 at 5:42 PM ^

and on an angle I hadn't considered. Hell, I was wondering if just the midwestern landscape—i.e., lack of mountains—would be problematic, but when you throw in the question of religion it takes on an added dimension.

I take it the Mormon community in Wisconsin is not nearly the size it is in Corvallis.

MStopRed

December 12th, 2014 at 4:22 PM ^

I've seen many families move out to Michigan from Utah to take promising jobs in the auto industry. They're lured out by the fact that the pay and prestige is far better than any job available to them in Utah.

Usually though after a year or so being so far from the rest of the extended family in Utah gets too hard. It can sort of feel like an exile situation, or that they're "out in the mission field."

Now having been born and raised in Michigan myself, I've never had any desire to live in Utah, and the mitten is my homeland. But I understand where they're coming from.

Even if the Mormon population in Corvalis isn't much larger or the same as Madison, it's not a liberal like Madison, the terrain feels more like home, it's a shorter distance to family and the homeland, and the percentage of their children's classmates that are Mormon is like larger.



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad