Searchbits IX: Dramamine Time
like the mean streak, this coaching search will jerk you around
HARBAUGH HARBAUGH HARBAUGH: HOORAY. I hope you guys like rollercoasters. Yesterday it was all sun and butter, because when the money comes in someone's hearing something:
Jim Harbaugh 2015 Coaching odds suspended after a stream of bets on Michigan moved them from 8-1 to 2-1 yesterday afternoon
— Sportsbook.com ® (@Sportsbook_com) December 6, 2014
Note that this is not a "who will be Michigan's coach" prop, it's a "where will Harbaugh be" prop. The sportsbook had a low maximum bet on this event (2k) but had so much Harbaugh-to-M action coming in that they couldn't set the odds high enough to discourage it, and thus yoinked the bet.
At the same time this was going on the insider rumble got near-fervent at Rivals, partially from unofficial sources, partially from official ones. For the first time it really felt like it was happening; I heard some chatter that Schlissel and the regents have been brought into discussions. That implies that negotiations reached the part where numbers are involved.
The only pause came last night when Sam re-iterated that a couple of his sources were skeptical, and even he later said he thought Harbaugh was probable. Hooray! Stack the pancakes and get the syrup catapult out, we're having Harbaugh for brunch!
HARBAUGH HARBAUGH HARBAUGH: HELP. Then this morning the NFL guys weighed in with the same thing they've been saying since it became clear Harbaugh was headed somewhere else after the season: nope. Many of them did so.
The problem with these assertions is that many of them contain nonsense within them. CBS:
While many are connecting Harbaugh to the opening at Michigan, where he was a star quarterback, sources close to the coach maintain he is not interested. Harbaugh's family has close ties to outgoing Michigan coach Brady Hoke and Harbaugh is much more interested in NFL possibilities.
Ties to Brady Hoke are not a reason to not take the Michigan job. I'm sure these guys are all getting information from people who know something about something, but they seem to just repeat it without considering whether or not that source is reliable in this matter. The story goes on to assert that Steven Ross "could" end up being the primary competition with the Raiders for his services when people have reported that his focus at the moment is getting him to Ann Arbor—and away from the Jets.
So I'm skeptical of that, but poke an NFL insider today and he's saying Harbaugh to Michigan ain't happening. Ian Rapoport said Michigan "reached out" and "left convinced he wants to be an NFL coach"; FWIW he is the guy who asserted a few weeks ago that Ross wanted Harbaugh at M.
So the usual, with all sides escalating. Someone's going to look dumb.
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
MORE PLAN B STUFF. Michigan is still focused heavily on Harbaugh and will be until he gives them a flat no. But they're not putting all their eggs in one basket, which is an improvement from the 2007 search (no basket, eggs anywhere and everywhere) and the 2011 search (basket reads "HARBAUGH!!! hoke i guess). I get the impression that Michigan is contacting a lot of people, either because it's a good idea or because it's the ultimate smokescreen.
So I have a series of unconfirmed reports, all about different people who have had the proverbial feelers extended to them. Along with the guys mentioned yesterday (Whittingham, Mullen, Addazio, Mora) I've had blips on David Shaw, Mora (again) and even Gary Patterson. Patterson is unlikely unless his team misses the playoff—we'll know that today. Previous reports that he'd flat turned M down are premature but likely to be correct in the long run.
And… ugh… people keep talking about Greg Schiano, who Florida passed over for a third year coach with a 7 million dollar buyout and Nebraska passed over for a 62-year-old. Scout's Brian Dohn reports($) that Schiano is making a "strong push for the job" after turning Michigan down in 2007; it should be noted that the strong push is coming from the Schiano side of things… which like yeah duh. I haven't heard anything about the interest being reciprocal.
In re: Schiano's attractivness. Nope! He had one really good year in 2006, and then spent the next five years going 16-19 in the post-defection Big East. He deserves credit for rebuilding Rutgers, but his star has collapsed since he seemed plausible in 07.
ON THE ACCESSIBILITY OF MULLEN. I forgot to include a link to a Matt Hinton piece on Grantland describing the various ways in which Mullen has cobbled together a top ten team from discarded ham and kumquat-flavored toothpaste. Hinton includes a couple of charts that demonstrate how impressive Mullen's season has been and why he's liable to GTFO of Starkville at the first reasonable opportunity:
I cross-referenced every player listed this week on official depth charts released by Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M against their original recruiting rating, and on paper, at least, the difference between the top of the division and the ostensible bottom is a yawning chasm:
Mullen’s only five-star signee, sophomore defensive lineman Chris Jones, is listed as a backup; of the four-stars on hand, only four of the eight are listed as starters, all on defense: senior defensive tackles P.J. Jones and Kaleb Eulls, sophomore linebacker Beniquez Brown, and senior safety Justin Cox. Everyone else on the no. 3 team in the nation, by the standards of the rest of its own division, arrived as an afterthought.
And this is a considerable improvement on MSU's previous recruiting! It is super-hard to maintain against that kind of recruiting thunder in a division where Hugh Freeze might be the worst coach. (Seriously. Who is the worst coach in the SEC West?)
And Scout's Jamie Newberg says "he just knows" that Mullen would leave for the Michigan job if offered it.
CUMONG MAN. The hotdog rumors will not die:
One bit of Michigan search info I can share--there’s one well-known current head coach who believes Michigan is going to hire Sean Payton.
— Ben Estes (@benestes91) December 5, 2014
Last January Payton signed an $8-million-per-year extension that extends to the 2017-18 season. It makes him the highest-paid coach, period. Buying him out of that and giving him a commensurate contract is a financial commitment on par with those debunked Godfather offers, and presumes he wants to leave the Saints franchise he's been with since 2006. Also, all he has to do is suck less than the Falcons to make the playoffs this year. This doesn't pass basic common sense.
CUMONG MAN II. Gil "Thorpe" Brandt has a case to make for Schiano:
My wildcard for #Michigan is Greg Schiano, might even be front-runner. Will get excellent recommendations from high-powered #NFL coaches
— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) December 5, 2014
It is not a good case. The NFL does not like him one bit. Also: remember how we thought Nebraska's search was nuts? They could have hired Schiano in a hot second. Schiano is the only way Michigan can come out of this hiring troika with a guy the other two definitively passed on.
Etc.: Les Miles tells a recruit he's not going anywhere. I think he thinks that's true because he thinks he's not going to get a sniff. Here is a comprehensive rundown of everything that's been said so far.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:54 PM ^
*Stephen Ross
December 7th, 2014 at 7:27 PM ^
Charles just intercepted S.F. to seal a Raiders victory...
Don't stop ... 'Baughlieving!!!
December 7th, 2014 at 12:57 PM ^
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December 7th, 2014 at 12:57 PM ^
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December 7th, 2014 at 3:01 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 5:11 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 7:20 PM ^
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December 7th, 2014 at 1:48 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:27 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:50 PM ^
that I see him leaving either, but its always tough to jump to a new program in the same conference. It would be much more palatable to go from TCU to the B1G than another Big 12 team.
December 7th, 2014 at 4:57 PM ^
I believe he turned KSU down in their 2009 coaching search, before they were in conference
December 7th, 2014 at 2:59 PM ^
He's crazy if he's not. He's been shown the clear path: Beat only one or two good teams, win the weak Big Ten and you are in.
Coaches have egos. If Meyer can do it at OSU, he'll think he can do it at Michigan.
December 7th, 2014 at 3:10 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 3:13 PM ^
TCU used to be mainly a pro-style offense in the same vein as MSU and Stanford. Patterson changed the offensive style this year.
December 7th, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^
So, you're saying he's not stubbornly fixed on one certain style of offense?
December 7th, 2014 at 1:02 PM ^
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December 7th, 2014 at 1:05 PM ^
Sometimes there is simply not a great group of coaches available- this may be that year
I often wonder if a program shouldn't just put things off a year and let Nuss coach as an interim and see what turns up next year
This is where you find out if Hackett and the committee have their act together- do they have several exciting dark horse candidates? Or have they just settled on 2-3 people and are now screwed?
Miles ain't coming- just wants more $$$ from LSU
Harbaugh likes the glamor of the NFL and the west coast
Maybe we should consider the OC of Oregon? TCU's HC? anybody?
Don't let it be a reject like Shiano or some crazy one year wonder
December 7th, 2014 at 1:31 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 2:01 PM ^
Not saying you're not real well-informed and all... but seriously, what's more glamorous than coaching Michigan?!
December 7th, 2014 at 3:00 PM ^
Florida. And look how they did.
December 7th, 2014 at 3:58 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 5:02 PM ^
Absolutely F**ing Right!
If we fired Brandon and Hoke with no plan, somebody should burn!
December 7th, 2014 at 1:06 PM ^
Rod Carey just might be the man for Michigan. We need a Chris Petersen clone, but since that's not possible, let's look at the MAC, always a fertile field for good coaching.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:25 PM ^
I disagree that we need a Chris Petersen clone. He hasn't shown an ability to win consistently at a high level. Washington got beat this year by every good team they played.
I disagree that the MAC is always a fertile field for good coaching. Other than Urban, what former MAC head coaches are currently succeeding at a high level? Gary Pinkel?
December 7th, 2014 at 2:01 PM ^
Nick Saban.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:06 PM ^
How much does Sean Payton actually get paid? Both articles you link to say that people "Estimate" around 8 million and the only thing I can find with definitive numbers is a forbes article saying it is worth 37.5 million over five years which would be 7.5 but those numbers are from estimates as well. Either way, if Michigan can offer Harbaugh 8-10 a year why can't they offer that to Payton as well?
December 7th, 2014 at 1:06 PM ^
If it turns out he does have interest, and Michigan can get a deal worked with him, wouldn't that be better to have a very good coach in place than waiting for the possibility that Harbaugh might come and might be a better coach?
December 7th, 2014 at 1:08 PM ^
My studying efficiency has dropped to zero with this rollercoaster of a coaching search going on. C'mon Jimmy!
December 7th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:11 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^
He could be our head coach and Dallas's GM. Great pipeline for NFL talent
December 7th, 2014 at 1:12 PM ^
Here is my opinion on the Harbaugh yes/no pendulum:
Harbaugh hasn't made up his mind. Friends/colleagues/acquaintances are constantly asking him about the Michigan job. He gives his thoughts without giving a definite answer. The people asking are left to read in between the lines because "He hasn't decided" isn't buzzworthly insider new. So they give their personal spin on it.
Most NFL guys read into his indecision as a "no" because they believe no one would ever leave the NFL if they didn't have to (as Brian keeps stating). Most Michigan guys read into his indecision as a "yes" because what michigan guy wouldn't want to be the new Bo? They are just defaulting to their own current bias on the situation.
So really, we just have to wait until Harbaugh makes up his mind. All this crap is just people who don't know shit giving us their opinion about Harbaugh's indecision.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^
I wonnder how many of the NFL reporters' sources are just guys in the NY or SF offices spouting their opnion. And then these reporters just say screw it. My editor wants a report; I have a source; why question whether my source knows anything since he's saying something perfectly sensible.
I'd be interested in understanding (perhaps after it's all done) how many local people actually know anything. I assume Hackett ain't talking. How many others would be in a position to know something? I suppose it's the case that someone would know that Hacket and Schizz had a meeting, though it could simply be an update on where we are in turning the culture.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:46 PM ^
We KNOW Harbaugh is interested. We know this because if Harbaugh was not interested, we would have made offers to other top candidates already.
As long as we do not hear anything about other coaches being offered, Harbaugh is interested. Period.
As soon as Harbaugh turns us down, you will know because a serious offer will be made to another candidate and the news will leak (most likely by the targeted coach's current adminstration). No such news has been leaked, which means Michigan is still on Harbaugh's trail.
All these Harbaugh No/Yes rumors are useless. Harbaugh is interested, that is the only scenario where all these actions fit. You will know very shortly after Harbaugh makes a decision.
Which is why the longer this continues, it is better for Michigan since that means more and more likely that Harbaugh is going to say yes, because saying no takes no time.
December 7th, 2014 at 2:37 PM ^
Dec 29 is a Monday, day after the last 49er game. This is the day Harbaugh is introduced as new Michigan coach. (My crazy theory)
Think about it, what does Harbaugh need right now, time and a smokescreen. Lot's of misinformation to put all these pundits looking everywhere but Michigan. Hackett clears out all the assistants, that gets rid of any leaks that might happen. Hires the headhunters to make it look good and probably to look at anyone else just in case something happens at the end and you have to go to plan B.
And until Harbaugh comes out and says in public, no, we just don't know.
Dec. 29
December 7th, 2014 at 2:25 PM ^
Jim Harbaugh has a job, which cannot end before 12/28/14, unless his employers decide to end it sooner. Which they may if SF loses to Oakland today. Or if he walks out Petrino style - but who sees that happening?
He's not going to SAY he's leaving the 49ers for Michigan (or anywhere else) until he's free to do so. As his predecessor said - "Can't do it!"
The only speculation that makes any real-world sense in relation to actual events as they are unfolding is that Harbaugh may have a tentative agreement in principle to come to M, but it cannot be fully negotiated or revealed while he still coaches another team.
Clearly the 49ers are struggling (on offense) with strategy, motivation, execution... everything Harbaugh would be most involved in. By now word of his "irreconcilable" split with GM Balke has been pretty well publicized. The calling out of their performance by the owner's son/CEO tells a pretty clear story of how much they value Harbaugh at this point.
We thought he was coming here in '10 but Brandon dawdled until SF jumped 1st (and bigger $). That's not the case this time. Now I'm not saying he won't possibly decide to stay in the NFL after all - as eveyone keeps pointing out, who has ever left a successful NFL career to return to college coaching? But I really think Harbaugh is heading back to A2 for at least a 5-6 year stint, get us on champioinship level footing, then consider trying the NFL again. He's still young, he could do it all.
December 7th, 2014 at 4:42 PM ^
Saban left MIami to coach Alabama. I believe he was above .500 when he left Miami. Harbaugh certainly knows what Saban has done since returning to collegiate football. The same can be said for Pete Carrol and his success at USC.
December 7th, 2014 at 5:40 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 2:28 PM ^
Double post - laptop hates the site today apparently!
December 7th, 2014 at 3:36 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 3:46 PM ^
That sounds like he was never offered the job
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December 7th, 2014 at 5:45 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 5:39 PM ^
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December 7th, 2014 at 6:02 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:13 PM ^
Suddently, I am not optimistic one bit for a good coach.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:13 PM ^
I think Patterson will listen if offered after how he probably feels he got screwed today. I have always thought that Mullen would take the job after his comment that he didn't think his team would get in when they were at one loss, insinuating that politics would keep his team out.
It should start heating up in the next day or two.
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