I know that RR said Oklahoma came to Ann Arbor last year to discuss offense with RR and staff. I have noticed watching them a couple times this year that there are some similarities in both offenses. The big one that I noticed was the checkdown at the line scrimmage with the coaches on the sideline before the snap. Has anyone noticed any others?
RR's Influence on Oklahoma’s Offense
I think they came to learn about running a hurry-up / no huddle offense. I think I read somewhere that RR and Co. will be going to OK to learn some things from them as well.
I'm pretty sure there are a ton of hurry up teams that check to the line with the coaches... not just UM/OU.
ou got all messed up by the no huddle against wvu in the fiesta bowl so they came to learn it from rod last year
oklahoma's oc was at northwestern when rod taught them the spread, so they have a longstanding working relationship
A LOT of offenses check down before the snap nowadays...but the OU offense is probably what RRod would LOVE his to be someday
I thought I read something last year that Calvin Magee had been studying Missouri's version of the "spread" so that he and Rich Rod could find different ways of getting our TEs involved in the passing game. I hope RR and Magee are looking hard at Oklahoma's offense. My biggest knock against RR's read-option is the amount of hits that it exposes the qb to. It seems inevitable that your qb will get injured at some point in this offense.
if you're OL sucks it doesn't matter what offense you run, your QB will get killed. the thing about running QBs is that they generally get out of bounds or shield themselves from bigger hits. non-running QBs (steven threet) aren't used to shielding themselves and aren't athletic enough to dodge bigger hits. if you noticed VY never got hurt running the zone-read at texas and dennis dixon got hurt without getting touched in practice. the offense isn't what gets you hurt.
I think he was talking about RR's spread at WVU and not RR's spread at Michigan. Pat White took a lot of hits (and also avoided a lot more).
Yeah, but will the Michigan version ever resemble the WVU version? The reason they ran so much is because Pat White and Rasheed Marshall were much better runners than throwers. I doubt Rodriguez will ever have a QB like that at Michigan, so he'll probably always throw more, which means less hits for the QB. Also, I am not an expert, but I believe when you run the Zone Read play, either the QB or RB can be the designed runner. When you have a guy like White, he's obviously going to be the designed runner a lot. But if its someone like Forcier, who is going to be slower than the RB's he plays with, he is rarely going to be the designed runner, meaning he only keeps is the weakside DE crashes in, so they'll get less carries, so even less hits on the QB.
I highly doubt it (re: passing more). The reason why they ran so much is that the basis of RR's spread is the run; not the pass. At every stop in his career his spread has been a power running spread, with the first year typically being the least amout of run.
1997 - 54% run (first year at Tulane)
1998 - 58% run
1999 - 54% run (first year at Clemson)
2001 - 57% run (first year at WVU)
2002 - 72% run
2003 - 70% run
2004 - 69% run
2005 - 76% run
2006 - 72% run
2007 - 70% run
Also, I'm not sure why you would posit that he's not likely to have a dual-threat quarterback at Michigan in the mould of Woody Dantzler, Rasheed Marshall or Pat White. I think the likelihood tends toward him having access to a better one at Michigan because of better recruiting pull and also just based on the sheer number of quarterbacks available that play the style.
Regarding the zone read option, you are correct in that the primary read is to one or the other. That said, even at WVU during the Pat White years, White was only typically primary read about 10 times per game (or so). The fact that either Forcier or Beaver may be prospectively slower than White isn't really relevant to the way the plays are called and read. Hell, even Threet had decent success when he did keep. The key in this offense is to have a credible running threat from your quarterback AND a credible downfield passing threat from your quarterback so that the reads can be effectively taken advantage of.
The run is not the basis for his offense. He has consistently changed his offense to better suit his personnel. We don't have the numbers for Glenville State, but there he was throwing 75% of the time.
I doubt we will ever see Michigan run more than 60% of the time.
Yes, the run definitely IS the basis for his offense. It is a zone read option spread, which by its very nature is run first. If you look at the run-pass numbers and think about it for a moment something obvious stands out: his offense runs the least in his first year. Why? Because in his first year he's had the least mobile quarterback of his tenure at each stop. That's a sign of flexibility to adadpt away from the basic premise of his offense to adapt to the players he has, then once he starts getting his players his playcalling goes back toward the basic premise of the offense. As far as running more than 60% of the time at Michigan, I'll bet that they run over 60% of the time next season.
Your argument falls flat when you consider he only ran 60%+ when he freaking wide receivers at quarterback. The increase to 58% at Tulane was not abnormally high and considering he will have a mobile quarterback, not entirely surprising.
Look at it this way... Tate Forcier can run and pass for 3,000 yards. Do you think Rodriguez is stupid enough to ignore that downfield threat because it's not how he did it at WVU? Pat White at QB = 75% run. Tate Forcier at QB = 58% run.
But even if its around 55%, which is what I expect long term, that's still significantly less hits on the QB then at West Virginia.
I don't necessarily think that we'll never have a dual threat QB, just that when we do, he will be a better thrower than White or Marshall, so the playcalling won't approach 70/30 run.
The zone-read isn't very effective unless the qb keeps it a good portion of the time.
That depends on what you consider "a good portion of the time".
No, I don't think he is "stupid enough to ignore that downfield threat", but what I do think is that you are fundamentally misunderstanding the offense that you are going to see in upcoming seasons is actually designed to work. You actually do identify the phrase that is the key to it all, and that is "downfiled threat". The threat to go downfield is what is essential; not necessarily using it all the time. You also have to remember that a decent percentage of passing plays in this offense aren't credited as such, but are instead considered running plays. The ability for the quarterback to make the appropriate read whether to run (not the quarterback actually running that often) or to go downfield (not the quarterback actually going downfield that often) instead of handing off are the key to this offense. I'm sorry if this comes across as condescending (I don't mean it to), but I can guarantee you that I'm more familiar with actually watching his offense (and not just looking at stats) and understanding what he's trying to do than you are. I'm standing by my bet that next year the run percentage is over 60%.
You're wrong in your assumptions that I'm not familiar with the offense. I know what the offense looks like, I'm questioning that Rodriguez will run the same offense with a quarterback who can throw a ball farther than 10 yards as he did with Pat White.
I'm willing to bet it will be the exact same number as it was at Tulane: 58%. And it will only venture above that when the situation demands it.
I guess we'll see; reasonable people can differ. My issue with what you are saying is this: in 2007 WVU ran the ball 70% of the time and was ranked 15th in the nation in total offense (456 yds/gm). They were also ranked 5th in the nation in yards per play (6.64), 1st in the nation in yards per rush (6.15), 114th in the nation in yards per pass (7.8), and 62nd in the nation in yards per completion (11.74). The only one of those that isn' particularly good is the yards per passing attempt (which, however, was still better than Michigan's 6.77 yards/attempt, for comparison's sake), but yards per completion more than makes up for it (although about 1 yard per completion less than Michigan last year). While WVU ran the ball 70% of the time they still passed the ball fairly effectively when they did throw. It's not like they were totally ineffective when they threw the ball, and having watched almost every one of their games over the last several years, I can attest that these numbers accurately reflect that. The point of this is that he had his players, running his offense, the way that he wanted to at WVU and was the #5 offense in the country; why would you expect him to radically change his approach when the approach that he's been using works?
I don't think he's going to radically change it. I think he'll take a more balanced approach to take advantage of the talent he'll be able to recruit.
I see what you're saying and do agree that he'll be able to recruit better talent. That said, I don't know that it means he changes anything. I mean, Mike Leach runs his system at Texas Tech even though he surely could recruit the players to run the ball more than he does, but he doesn't because that's his system. That's how I see Rodriguez. He could do that, but that's not his system. We'll see. Good discussion though.
But Rodriguez was a balls out, pass on every play guy once upon a time, too. I'm not sure how devoted he is to any single offense.
Time will tell, either way we'll be a machiene.
Yes, I agree with you on your last two points. I tend to believe that coaches move toward what they really are the longer they've been somewhere; that's why I tend to draw my conclusion about what his real style is. If I remember correctly, there was an article (or maybe it was an interview) where he talked about the years when he passed the most and said that it to do with the talent that he had available in those years (which coincidentally were his first years). But yes, I think the main point to conclude to is that it's going to be fun to watch either way!