Rivals QB Reranking ... Not So Fast

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 7512

This is a good point. Would

This is a good point. Would we be so convinced he's going to be a super star if he had committed to Ohio State?

July 24th, 2009 at 7:21 PM

(Reply to #27) #8

Tater

Joined: 08/13/2008

MGoPoints: 30564

I wouldn't..

because his talents would be wasted in Tressel's soon-to-be-anachronistic offense.

July 24th, 2009 at 8:37 PM

(Reply to #38) #9

Joined: 01/12/2009

MGoPoints: 11831

Color me pessimistic, but

Color me pessimistic, but Tressel's offense seems to have done well up to this point. It may not be the new shiny spread, but he has put together some fine scoring teams. I don't see them falling off a cliff any time soon just because he doesn't run primarily out of a spread. Maybe that's just me though.

July 24th, 2009 at 9:06 PM

(Reply to #42) #10

tpilews

Joined: 10/17/2008

MGoPoints: 2496

Here's osu's ranking of total

Here's osu's ranking of total offense for the past 6 seasons. I guess I'm having a hard time agreeing with what you said when given this data. Outside of having a QB named Smith, I'm failing to see where "putting together some fine scoring teams" comes into play.

2008: #76
2007: #60
2006: #15
2005: #38
2004: #103
2003: #97

July 24th, 2009 at 9:10 PM

(Reply to #48) #11

Joined: 01/12/2009

MGoPoints: 11831

I stand corrected.

July 25th, 2009 at 1:12 PM

(Reply to #48) #12

tpilews

Joined: 10/17/2008

MGoPoints: 2496

Just in case any of you were

Just in case any of you were wondering how UM stacks up during that time span, it ain't purty.

2008: 109
2007: 75
2006: 33
2005: 55
2004: 46
2003: 12

I really thought the UM offense was better than what the rankings show.

July 25th, 2009 at 6:08 PM

(Reply to #60) #13

Farnn

Joined: 07/07/2008

MGoPoints: 11636

What was WVU's offensive

What was WVU's offensive rankings during that time?

July 25th, 2009 at 9:49 PM

(Reply to #65) #14

Joined: 01/12/2009

MGoPoints: 11831

Total Offense 2008: 59 2007:

Total Offense
2008: 59
2007: 15
2006: 5
2005: 50
2004: 26

Scoring Offense
2008: 73
2007: 9
2006: 3
2005: 31
2004: 29

Don't know about 2003. The site I use only has aggregate data going back to 2004. I'm sure a google search could procure the information but I'm lazy.

July 25th, 2009 at 11:24 AM

(Reply to #38) #15

Phinaeus Gage

Joined: 10/02/2008

MGoPoints: 203

Nice

Excellent use of anachronistic.

July 24th, 2009 at 6:05 PM

(Reply to #13) #16

tpilews

Joined: 10/17/2008

MGoPoints: 2496

Not only that, but think of

Not only that, but think of it this way. You see how we, as 18-45 years old drool all over these rankings, think about high school kids in the same class, and even younger guys. I bet they're looking at them more than we are. If you're a great WR, seeing that UM hauls in a 5 star QB may make UM more appealing to that prospect. Snowball effect???

July 24th, 2009 at 3:22 PM

(Reply to #6) #17

dundee

Joined: 03/29/2009

MGoPoints: 29

why

why are we so infatuated? i don't really think it's us (although it could be) i know it's not me. the thing that makes me "infatuated" about scout and rivals agreeing with us is the fact that ,i belive, that the rankings do have some bearing and influence on the 17 yr old recruits sitting at home looking at the websites and seeing who's going where and where they are ranked, especially if they have more than just one favorite college to go to. i mean don't kids want to go somewhere they have talent that's gonna be playing along side them?

July 24th, 2009 at 4:04 PM

(Reply to #6) #18

Joined: 07/09/2008

MGoPoints: 6619

Yeah, but everyone likes

Yeah, but everyone likes their own recruits. Having an outside neutral source affirm your infatuation is at least reassuring.

July 24th, 2009 at 2:54 PM

(Reply to #4) #19

ShockFX

Joined: 07/16/2008

MGoPoints: 4069

I don't think it matters, but

I don't think it matters, but stuff's a bit weird this year. Nick Hill is a 5.7 with offers from EMU/CMU/Stanford/MSU. Austin White is a 5.6 with UM/LSU/Iowa/Wisco offers. That's just...not quite right.

I prefer that the players that are committed do well at camps and against higher rated players. Whether or not Rivals/Scout re-rank them higher is a very low concern relative to their actual performance.

July 24th, 2009 at 1:41 PM

#20

dinkmctip

Joined: 11/05/2008

MGoPoints: 434

Brunetti, realizes he is no

Brunetti, realizes he is no longer number one, notices he's a midget, moves to slot, and commits to UM.

July 24th, 2009 at 2:09 PM

#21

West Texas Blue

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 1843

Hmm, alot of the newer

Hmm, alot of the newer posters on these boards have been obsessed with star rankings; I sense scout and rivals board members making a move over here...

July 24th, 2009 at 2:20 PM

(Reply to #7) #22

Korean Wolverine20

Joined: 12/16/2008

MGoPoints: 681

if you're talking about me

I don't care much for star rankings at all. A Michigan man is a Michigan man. It's pretty much what MrVociferous says. It just kinda looks better if a player you know is great, is acknowledged for his achievements.

And it gets hella annoying when buckeyes and spartys go like
"OMGZZZ ALL YOUR STAR RANKINGS ARE BELONGZZ TO UZZZZZZZ!!!11`!1~~1!`1"

July 24th, 2009 at 3:40 PM

(Reply to #8) #23

http://sports.espn.go.com/highschool/rise/football/news/story?id=4352245

Joined: 01/12/2009

MGoPoints: 11831

Then hella ignore it. It's a

Then hella ignore it. It's a bit like arguing with a child really. People like that don't see reason and logic doesn't matter.

Most of the time the people that are bothered by comments that much are the same ones that would be gloating if the tables were turned.

July 24th, 2009 at 2:20 PM

#24

TomVH

Joined: 10/21/2008

MGoPoints: 16654

This is....

This is all opinion anyway, but if it matters at all, the counselors at the Elite 11 camp didn't rank Devin Gardner in the top 5.

July 24th, 2009 at 2:32 PM

(Reply to #9) #25

West Texas Blue

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 1843

Yeah I saw that yesterday.

Yeah I saw that yesterday. Gardner will be good, but everyone needs to get off this idea that Gardner should be 5 star/ super recruit because one site rated him the best prospect in one camp. Just be happy we're getting a great athlethe that fits our offense perfectly.

July 24th, 2009 at 3:14 PM

(Reply to #11) #26

The Other Brian

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 1229

Wait...people should stop

Wait...people should stop clamoring that Gardner should be a 5-star on Rivals because Rivals named him the best QB at a camp full of the best QBs in the country?

I generally don't give a crap about rankings, but Rivals is definitely in the wrong here. I don't think Gardner is a 5-star (yet), but there aren't 170 players better than him. He is a top 100 prospect (and probably will be when Rivals updates their rankings again next month). Everybody in the state (except the lunatic fringe of the Spartan fanbase) knows that Gardner is a better player and better prospect than Boisture, and Rivals has had them far apart in the rankings for a while now...and then last night the guy they sent to cover the Elite 11 ranks Gardner #1 and Boisture #12. That isn't something that just magically happened overnight. Gardner's always been better than Boisture, and Rivals has refused to acknowledge that until recently.

July 24th, 2009 at 3:21 PM

(Reply to #17) #27

Jay

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 576

I don't think the word

I don't think the word "wrong" can be used to describe something so subjective as ranking and evaluating 16 & 17 year old quarterbacks.

July 24th, 2009 at 6:18 PM

(Reply to #19) #28

Joined: 09/08/2008

MGoPoints: 41326

Couldn't disagree more

Yes, the rankings are subjective. How do you explain the disparity between his ranking out of the elite 11 and other camps, and his overall ranking? He did not just suddenly get that good.

July 24th, 2009 at 7:36 PM

(Reply to #34) #29

Jay

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 576

Well, his overall ranking was

Well, his overall ranking was done before the Elite 11 Camp ended, I believe. It is possible that Gardner has improved since his last evaluation. It is also possible that many of us just tend to think that our own commits are better than they may actually be, don't you think? Remember how so many fans were convinced that M. Rob & Ricardo were both going to be five star, top 100 recruits before the initial rankings and evaluations were released a few months ago?

July 24th, 2009 at 8:31 PM

(Reply to #39) #30

Joined: 09/08/2008

MGoPoints: 41326

Yeah

I wasn't as big on Ricardo as I was/am on MRob. But, I'm gonna have to agree to disagree about Gardner's ranking. He has obviously improved a ton since last year, but his ranking was after he had already camped twice(?), and killed it both times. I guess I'll just have to wait and see where he ends up, not that it "matters", I guess.

July 24th, 2009 at 8:51 PM

(Reply to #41) #31

Jay

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 576

For the record, I'm not

For the record, I'm not saying Gardner's ranking is right or wrong. It just seems somewhat pointless to debate the ranking of a kid who has yet to play his senior season of high school football, imho. His rankings can (and probably will) change fairly soon as long as he continues to impress.

July 24th, 2009 at 8:53 PM

(Reply to #43) #32

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 7512

Co-signed

It's July. In all likelihood, Inkster will win the state title again and Devin will have ample opportunity to show the world how good he really is. He's definitely high 4* material and I'm confident he'll get to that point by signing day.

July 24th, 2009 at 8:58 PM

(Reply to #44) #33

goblueritzy92

Joined: 01/26/2009

MGoPoints: 3524

Inkster lost to EGR in the

Inkster lost to EGR in the Division 3 title game, but yeah they will compete for the title again, even without Gordon

July 24th, 2009 at 9:06 PM

(Reply to #46) #34

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 7512

Especially if Ricardo does go

Especially if Ricardo does go there, as some have speculated.

July 24th, 2009 at 9:11 PM

(Reply to #49) #35

goblueritzy92

Joined: 01/26/2009

MGoPoints: 3524

I thought that was just

I thought that was just wishful thinking?

July 24th, 2009 at 9:17 PM

(Reply to #51) #36

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 7512

It was mentioned as a

It was mentioned as a possibility in the Free Press, so I believe it is one. I think Inkster accepts out of district students, so not living in Inkster shouldn't be a problem.

July 24th, 2009 at 11:59 PM

(Reply to #52) #37

TomVH

Joined: 10/21/2008

MGoPoints: 16654

That's not...

That's not where he's going. He wants it to stay quiet for now, but it's not Inkster, I'll tell you that.

July 25th, 2009 at 12:12 AM

(Reply to #55) #38

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 7512

I'll assume it's a Washtenaw

I'll assume it's a Washtenaw County school then... the other options the Freep gave were Saline, Huron, Pioneer and Chelsea.

July 25th, 2009 at 11:52 AM

(Reply to #49) #39

mghorm

Joined: 07/06/2009

MGoPoints: 170

Ricardo is going to pioneer

Ricardo is going to pioneer and is goint to play inkster in one of the showcase games.

July 25th, 2009 at 8:21 PM

(Reply to #58) #40

lhglrkwg

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 27668

i was gonna say, i thought

i was gonna say, i thought this came out in another thread. they're playing at EMU's stadium i thought

July 24th, 2009 at 8:58 PM

(Reply to #43) #41

Joined: 09/08/2008

MGoPoints: 41326

You're right. I usually don't get carried away w/ rankings and what not, but I'm excited to see this kid play, and all of the Sparty love is getting to me I guess.

Edit: season come

July 24th, 2009 at 9:04 PM

(Reply to #45) #42

Jay

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 576

Just so you know, I'm really

Just so you know, I'm really excited about Devin Gardner, too. Not to disparage Tate or Denard, but, I think Gardner has the raw talent and ability to be a VERY special player for us one day. He's a cut above the rest, imho.

July 24th, 2009 at 9:46 PM

(Reply to #47) #43

Joined: 09/08/2008

MGoPoints: 41326

Yessir

July 24th, 2009 at 3:36 PM

(Reply to #9) #44

BiaBiakabutuka21

Joined: 05/21/2009

MGoPoints: 1561

Question for Tom

Do you give more credence to the opinion of the counselors who are actual players or to the talent evaluators at Scout, Rivals, etc...?

July 24th, 2009 at 4:24 PM

(Reply to #21) #45

TomVH

Joined: 10/21/2008

MGoPoints: 16654

Neither.....

Neither. If anything, the Rivals guys have been watching these kids longer than anyone else, which should give them the advantage. In that aspect, I would give them more credence.

As someone said before, this stuff is all subjective to someone's opinion. It's hard to say who I trust more, because I don't know anyones track record.

A kid could have a bad outing at a camp, and could affect how people rank him.

The fact is, the kids that were at the Elite 11, were there for a reason. They're all good. I think it's fair for Rivals to rank someone higher off of a good performance, more than it is to ding them for performing poorly. A lot of this is off of potential, so that makes sense to me.

July 24th, 2009 at 6:09 PM

(Reply to #28) #46

BiaBiakabutuka21

Joined: 05/21/2009

MGoPoints: 1561

Thanks Tom

Thank you for your answer. Very informative.

Always love your work!

July 24th, 2009 at 2:21 PM

#47

MGoJoe

Joined: 10/02/2008

MGoPoints: 353

Is anyone keeping track of

Is anyone keeping track of the movement in our recruits rankings from the day they committed to us until the day they signed with us? I think it would be interesting to assess the net movement in the rankings of those players across the major recruiting sites. A high positive net movement score indicating improvement in rankings would speak (roughly) to Rodriguez's ability to identify talent early.

July 24th, 2009 at 2:33 PM

(Reply to #10) #48

Farnn

Joined: 07/07/2008

MGoPoints: 11636

I don't think that

I don't think that information would be very useful without a sample of comparisons. Would definitely be an interesting ranking to set up for next season for say the top 10 recruiting classes or so. I may look into it but that would really be a long term project.

July 24th, 2009 at 3:04 PM

#49

MattC87

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 409

I firmly believe that in this

I firmly believe that in this offense, Gardner is a "5-star" elite prospect.

July 24th, 2009 at 3:10 PM

(Reply to #15) #50

the_white_tiger

Joined: 02/07/2009

MGoPoints: 5224

And that's all that matters.

July 24th, 2009 at 3:45 PM

(Reply to #15) #51

ryngonzalez

Joined: 07/24/2009

MGoPoints: 158

NFL Potential

Yes, in an offense that suits Gardner's athletic ability and technique at Quarterback, he would be considered a five-star.

Also, remember that even though they don't say it outright, Rivals and Scout base a lot of their rankings on how well a prospect would fit at their position when they're in the NFL. Pryor and Vince Young at the top of the classes as Dual-Threats are outliers to what they usually consider when reviewing prospects, at least in my opinion.

July 24th, 2009 at 4:11 PM

#52

UNCWolverine

Joined: 10/06/2008

MGoPoints: 6205

God, I hate to be such a dick

God, I hate to be such a dick sometimes but

WHO GIVES A SHIT IF A KID THAT IS ALREADY COMMITTED TO MICHIGAN RISES OR FALLS IN SOME PURELY SUBJECTIVE RANKING SYSTEM?

This post is just ridiculous. How can you allocate 1% of concern in your life to something like this? Will him shooting to the top 5 QBs honestly give you incremental happiness to pet your dog a few extra times or skip to work/school tomorrow? If he drops a few spots will your opinion of Gardner (and it's "Gardner" by the way) fall along with the rankings?

I swear to god some people care more about recruiting rankings in the offseason more than they do records and rankings in the fall, and I am dead seious when I say that.

Fugging sad really.....

Go Blue.

July 24th, 2009 at 4:39 PM

(Reply to #25) #53

MattC87

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 409

Boom. Malletted.

July 24th, 2009 at 7:01 PM

(Reply to #25) #54

Durham Blue

Joined: 10/09/2008

MGoPoints: 4205

You are correct.

The rankings give fans something to brag about/discuss, I guess.

July 25th, 2009 at 1:19 PM

(Reply to #36) #55

Joined: 07/09/2008

MGoPoints: 6619

They also do a fairly good

They also do a fairly good job reflecting potential...

July 25th, 2009 at 1:34 PM

(Reply to #25) #56

Joined: 07/09/2008

MGoPoints: 6619

The causal arrow points this way

Most people don't cheer a Michigan recruit rising in the rankings because they think the new ranking makes him better. They cheer because it reflects service's improved opinion of him.

July 25th, 2009 at 8:24 PM

(Reply to #25) #57

lhglrkwg

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 27668

call me crazy, but i feel

call me crazy, but i feel better about a recruit when he gets ranked higher since watching HS film does nothing for me

July 25th, 2009 at 9:14 PM

(Reply to #25) #58

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 7512

It's a symptom of following

It's a symptom of following football on the internet in the middle of July. On average, 80% of Michigan fans probably have no idea who Devin even is.

July 24th, 2009 at 4:14 PM

#59

Huss

Joined: 07/08/2008

MGoPoints: 1925

I think

You guys should ignore Devin's rank(He's still the second-ranked scrambler, dudes), and praise rivals for jumping on the Cornelius Jones bandwagon. Dude is pretty much ranked right where Florida wonderboy Trey Burton is. With much more exposure going into his senior season, his ranking has a lot of upward mobility.

July 24th, 2009 at 4:31 PM

#60

chris16w

Joined: 12/18/2008

MGoPoints: 135

Sorry, don't feel like

Sorry, don't feel like discussing.

July 24th, 2009 at 5:59 PM

#61

alabluema

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 229

I'm going to buy some vodka

I'm going to buy some vodka RIGHT NOW! BAM! He's off!

July 24th, 2009 at 6:51 PM

#62

Blue boy johnson

Joined: 03/15/2009

MGoPoints: 6357

I think it is safe to say,

I think it is safe to say, all the QB's at the Elite 11 are very talented. If Gardner is willing to continue to work hard to become a great QB, along with Tate, Denard and Jones, we have a lot to look forward to, irregardless of the rankings.

July 24th, 2009 at 7:10 PM

(Reply to #35) #63

CPS

Joined: 10/20/2008

MGoPoints: -407

Irregardless?

Come now, Gordie. You know better than that. ;)

July 24th, 2009 at 7:27 PM

(Reply to #37) #64

Blue boy johnson

Joined: 03/15/2009

MGoPoints: 6357

Actually I didn't know better

Actually I didn't know better than that. Thank you CPS, I will never make tnat mistake again, regardless of what anyone tninks.

July 24th, 2009 at 9:25 PM

#65

jabberwock

Joined: 07/04/2008

MGoPoints: 44179

While I think Michigan can

While I think Michigan can recruit against anyone, I really don't mind if some of our guys don't end up "maxing out" their rankings.

The less Carrol, Meyer, & Tressel are interested, the less chance a 5* ranking will go to a players head and have him jump ship. It's a long time until signing day.

I don't have a problem with recruits still going to camps after they've committed because these guys are elite competitors, and Michigan wouldn't want them if they weren't.

I guess I just like the idea of RR finding underrated, hungry players, and coaching them into unstoppable fire-breathing, Dread Ninjas.

July 25th, 2009 at 12:41 PM

#66

baorao

Joined: 08/08/2008

MGoPoints: 1075

People care

because its an independent corroboration of what every Michigan fan is being told by pro-Michigan media. It ultimately doesn't affect anything on the playing field, but until this coaching staff takes us to a BCS game its completely understandable for people to want a second opinion.

Notice how Beilein gets carte blanche to do what he wants now that we've returned to the NCAA tournament? That wasn't quite the case a year ago when he recruited Douglass and Novak, or even this year when Lubick turned us down and then we took a commitment from Smotrycz (before he blew up) even though we still had no clear picture on either Prather or Zeigler.

July 25th, 2009 at 5:25 PM

(Reply to #59) #67

jmblue

Joined: 11/07/2008

MGoPoints: 56282

Actually, Smotrycz committed

Actually, Smotrycz committed after we made the tournament, and lots of fans still bitched at the time. Even Brian seemed unimpressed at first. It was only when he blew up over this summer that everyone became convinced that Beilein made the right call. And even now, some people aren't certain that recruiting Tim Hardaway Jr. was a good move. Fans are going to find things to bitch about no matter what. Winning a national title didn't spare Lloyd from lots of "Why are we offering _______?" rants every year.

July 25th, 2009 at 5:32 PM

(Reply to #63) #68