The Rest Of The Class Comment Count

Brian

Tim provides the day-to-day but we haven't had a 1000 foot view of Michigan's recruiting in a while. Here's that.

ondre-pipkinskyle-kalisjames-ross

Ondre Pipkins, Kyle Kalis, James Ross

With the addition of Ondre Pipkins Michigan is down to about four open scholarships and one vast gaping hole that really needs filling, wide receiver. In the opinion of the internet, nose tackle has a fairly large hole that still needs a good bit of filling, too.

Let's dig up UFR alter ego for a quizzing:

How many players will end up in the class and how will they get to that number?

Michigan's current roster features 18 players with junior eligibility, including Stonum, 20 with sophomore eligibility, and 26 with freshman eligibility. That's 64 players, leaving Michigan with 21 spots for next year.

Michigan will have the option of bringing back the following players for fifth years, or more to the point, not bringing them back: Mike Cox, Roy Roundtree, Terrance Robinson, Brandon Moore, Patrick Omameh, Ricky Barnum, Elliot Mealer, Rocko Khoury, Kenny Demens, JT Floyd, and Jordan Kovacs.

Most of those guys are contributors. Cox, Robinson, Floyd, Mealer, and Moore could be offered a firm handshake if needed. A couple of those guys will emerge into guys Michigan needs to keep around. Moore will be the only upperclass TE on the roster other than Ricardo Miller, who's going to need a lot of bulk if he's going to contribute. Michigan needs upperclass OL, the RB situation is unsettled, and any warm body in the secondary is something to latch onto with claws. It seems like they'll get two, maybe three of the necessary spots by not offering fifth years.

The other two will resolve themselves in the next six months. Losing two or three guys between now and Signing Day would be somewhat low amount of attrition for anyone, let alone a team radically changing its offense and defense.

What do they do with the last four spots?

amara darboh

IA WR Amara Darboh – via Public Paul & Media

They clearly need at least one WR after taking none last year and seeing the previous year's class whittled down to just Jerald Robinson and Drew Dileo. One of the other three spots appears ticketed for a sixth OL.

The last two are wild cards. It seems like they've thrown in the towel on acquiring another quarterback and the only running back they're seriously involved with is Bri'onte Dunn, an Ohio State commit. They've stepped up the chase for cornerbacks Armani Reeves and Yuri Wright recently. Even if that has something to do with Terry Richardson's wandering eye, both Wright and Reeves have said Michigan had a change of heart and wants another corner in the class.

And then there's NT, which currently has Ondre Pipkins but is still desperately thin. In-state prospect Danny O'Brien is a consensus four star who has all manner of folk working on him; if there's a spot still he's at least 50-50 to take it.

So your final four or five spots:

  1. WR. As of two days ago this was a murky area with some vague options, but now Michigan appears to lead for IA WR Amara Darboh and CA WR Jordan Payton, both four stars. So let's make this one of them.
  2. WR. Probably the other. If not, a generic three star we haven't heard about yet.
  3. OL. With Jordan Diamond getting a little fuzzy about things this could be any one of a half-dozen guys, all of whom are highly rated. Likely to be another tackle but Josh Garnett, one of the top ranked guards in the country, is moving up his visit.
  4. DT/CB. Everyone wants the DT, I think, but Michigan is apparently recruiting corners again. Michigan's in the top two for Wright and top three for Reeves, though Reeves is set to announce and it looks like Penn State. Complicating factor: Wright wants to announce at the AA game.
  5. DT/CB/RB. If they get a fifth or sixth spot chances are they'll focus on skill position players, a second NT (if they did not already acquire one), or another corner.

What class rank will Michigan end up with?

This will vary by site, as it appears Scout and 247 are higher on the class than Rivals and ESPN. Michigan's currently #1 in Scout's rankings, fourth in Rivals's and fifth in ESPN's. (ESPN's does not reflect the addition of Pipkins. ESPN thinks Pipkins is meh, though, so if they got a bump it wouldn't be a huge one.)

We can actually calculate Michigan's final score if they close out the class with Darboh, Payton, Diamond, and O'Brien, which is realistic. Scout assigns points like so:

Team Rankings are a math formula that based on a player's rating and his rankings. 5-Star is a rating, No. 1 quarterback is his ranking.

5 Star = 200 points
4 Star = 120 points
3 Star = 40 points
2 Star = 20 points

The No. 1 player at a position is worth 100 points, counting down to the last ranked player at his position to 0.

For Example, assuming Scout ranks 100 quarterbacks.

5-Star, No. 1 QB = 300 points
4-Star, No. 10 QB = 210 points
3-Star, No. 50 QB = 90 points
2-Star, No. 75 QB = 45 points

The Team Rankings are compiled of the Top 25 players per class. Some teams will over-sign, but only 25 count towards the Team Rankings.

Diamond is a five-star and the #10 OT. The rest are four-stars. O'Brien is the #13 DT, Darboh the #23 WR, and Payton the #12 WR. Collectively they're worth 902 points. Some guy with three stars worth around 90 points will get the boot because of the 25-per-class limit. This would give Michigan about 5800 points. Last year this would have been good enough to tie for second with Florida State. (Previous comparisons are probably not valid since scores seem much lower overall.)

Other services will probably be a bit less generous but if they finish strong it's easily a top five class, which will spur yet another round of Brady Hoke grape peeling in the media, which will help recruiting down the line unless those pesky game things get in the way.

Comments

All-American

August 10th, 2011 at 3:44 PM ^

Honestly the RB position is the main focus of my anticipation for this season. Whether it is Cox, Toussaint, Hopkins, Rawls, Shaw or Hayes, I can't wait to (hopefully) see one of these RBs seperate himself from the group and become the featured back!

PS: Almost forgot Vincent Smith, who has looked good in practice so far.

UM Fan NY

August 10th, 2011 at 2:47 PM ^

"Other services will probably be a bit less generous but if they finish strong it's easily a top five class, which will spur yet another round of Brady Hoke grape peeling in the media, which will help recruiting down the line unless those pesky game things get in the way."

i'm seriously beginning to think that hoke could win every game and x-pac would still find something to piss and moan about. hypocrite.

Mengin06

August 10th, 2011 at 2:48 PM ^

Let's just hope the results of those pesky game things add fuel to the recruiting fire as opposed to quench it with water. I think an 8 win season will be sufficient to keep the momentum going.

bklein09

August 10th, 2011 at 3:45 PM ^

Well, with the media already on Hoke's side, I think an 8 win season would be more than enough to keep the momentum going.

I mean look at the hype Kelly and ND are getting a year after going 8-5. Sure they won their last 4 games (beating Utah, USC, and Miami - which isn't that impressive but was definitely surprising), but they also lost to Navy (by 18!) and Tulsa (at home).

Yet they are getting tons of respect from the media and recruits as well. So if Hoke can have anything near that kind of year the train should just keep on rolling! 

bronxblue

August 10th, 2011 at 3:57 PM ^

To be fair, ND has been returning to glory since I was in junior high.  It is one of those programs that, despite all evidence to the contrary, people expect to be in the top 10 every year; its consistent failure to do so apparently doesn't temper expectations one iota.

BigShotDave

August 10th, 2011 at 2:56 PM ^

I'll be dissappointed if anyone from this class opts to go somewhere else, but recognize it is likely.  Aside from T_Rich, are there rumors of other guys in the class going elsewhere?

Noleverine

August 10th, 2011 at 4:41 PM ^

but I have been following recruiting for about 6 years now (since starting college) and don't think I have seen a class that I was so sure would all end up on campus. There may be a little swaying, but I get the feeling most, if not all, are going to stick with Michigan. They see what is happening here and they want to be part of the magic.

TTUwolverine

August 10th, 2011 at 3:17 PM ^

why the staff hasn't offered William Mahone.  The dude is a consensus top 15 running back, has a borderline great offer list, is from Ohio, and seems to fit the power back profile that we're after.  Yet, no offer.  I'm sure the coaches have their reasons, but I really can't fathom what they could be.  Anyone have an idea why?  Is Brionte Dunn really that much better that we don't want anyone else that's available?

bronxblue

August 10th, 2011 at 3:59 PM ^

Maybe he has made it clear that he is looking at either ND or PSU (the two top teams on his list IME)?  No idea, but sometimes coaches won't waste their time if they don't think the recruit is that interested.  Dunn has shown some interest in UM, so they figure it is easier to turn him blue than try to pry a kid away from two other established programs not currently crumbling under accusations of cheating.

WolvinLA2

August 10th, 2011 at 4:07 PM ^

If we get another top OL and any of the receivers we're after, this will be a great class. Whether we get another WR, Dunn, O'Brien, Wright or any of the others discussed, this class is awesome.

Johnny Blood

August 10th, 2011 at 5:35 PM ^

Has something happened to him?  I thought he was in the same class as Dileo and J. Robinson?

 

My question is regarding the statement:

 

They clearly need at least one WR after taking none last year and seeing the previous year's class whittled down to just Jerald Robinson and Drew Dileo.