I like where your head is at.
mesmerism! presidential assassinations! circuses on fire!
As Signing Day nears, people commit to schools. That's how it works. Michigan has had a long wait after their summer flood and now sits on five guys that will either fill out the class or commit heinous crimes that can never be forgiven. In the spirit of late January/early February recruiting overkill, a rundown of the prospects and what my own Bayesian spidey sense (assembled from message board trolling, tips in the inbox, and a few conversations) is feeling at the moment.
If you don't read every word of the recruiting roundups, let this serve as a 1,000 foot view.
OH TE Sam Grant. Grant recently decommitted from Boston College after a long period of being a commit in name only and is either down to Michigan and Oklahoma or those two schools and Arkansas, depending on who you listen to. I have no insider information on him but his visit schedule is telling. In chronological order, he took trips to:
That second trip is telling, likely an attempt to confirm his decision or bring a family member up to get them on board. With Kyle Kalis undoubtedly in his ear and Oklahoma flush with tight end recruits (three already), this one seems like the least dramatic recruitment on the board.
IL OL Jordan Diamond. Diamond has seemingly had Michigan in the lead for over a year now, when he popped up on Michigan's radar during their recruitment of Simeon teammate Chris Bryant. A recruit not committing to an obvious leader over a long period of time can be a bad sign—it's often a signal there's something impassable. In Diamond's case, once Meyer arrived and started shooting offers out to anyone with four stars in the Big Ten footprint rumors started swirling about an Ohio State commit; he visited.
That moment has passed, leaving Diamond with an official top four of M, Arkansas, Auburn, and Wisconsin. Unofficially, that top four is a top two of M and Arkansas. The delay here is supposedly alarm at Michigan's offensive line recruiting class and Diamond's seeming inability to start from day one at Michigan. If Michigan makes it clear that the need at tackle is dire and that a couple of the touted players in the class are likely destined for guard (like Kalis and Garnett if he chooses justice and light), he should be blue. People close to Diamond believe that he really wants Michigan.
WA OL Josh Garnett. The biggest fish on the board is down to Stanford and Michigan. There is an interesting divide between the most informed Michigan observers (Sam, Tom), who believe it will be M, and most national analysts, who believe it will be Stanford. Garnett is going to make a lot of people wrong no matter who he chooses. Tom's confidence has been on the wane a bit of late; Sam, too, has been a little more reserved about Michigan's chances. This seems based on vibe more than new information, which isn't forthcoming. Some of the West Coast analysts predicting Stanford admit that they haven't gotten any new information out of Garnett in forever.
Kevin Erik Magnuson [ed: damn my memory for obscure old M hockey defensemen] and Garnett twitter footsie has reached levels heretofore unseen. Garnett has a bunch of people snowed either way; the choice here is between distance from home and being able to enjoy a milkshake with Magnuson at a school that has a much better track record of sustained success than Stanford.
This one is a tossup on which I don't have inside info. But…
MA CB Armani Reeves. After decommiting from Penn State, Reeves is down to Michigan or Ohio State. Michigan came in second on Reeves's first go-round and familiarity on its side—Ohio State just hired their defensive backs coach a couple hours ago. Ohio State has a commitment from best friend and fellow PSU decommit Camren Williams. Quien es mas macho?
Nobody knows. This is another recruitment that will go into the hat dance a genuine mystery; Rivals East Coast analyst Mike Farrell was "surprised" that the Urban in-home didn't lock Reeves down and now gives Michigan a ludicrously specific 52-48 edge based on nothing more than Bayesian spidey sense vibes. It's likely that not even Reeves knows where he's going at the moment.
Verdict: Flip a coin.
CO OL Alex Kozan. Kozan is down to Iowa, Michigan, and Auburn, three of the four schools he took officials to. Ohio State, the other, was presumed to be the heavy favorite. The way that changed suddenly implies that OSU pulled its offer. With the lingering OSU fandom push him away or will revenge bloodlust push him towards Michigan? Nobody knows.
No one knows anything about Kozan, really. I can't find one thing that indicates he's leaning one way or the other and haven't heard anything personally. All I've got is that it's the Auburn site on 247 that seems to be posting the most relevant items, like his announcement date. Auburn is nowhere near the 25 maximum and though they are hypothetically near 85, things happen, you know.
Verdict: Flip a three-sided coin.
Random Surprise Fellow. I think Michigan can take all five of the above if the chips fall their way. They have 23 with three early enrollees and have 27 scholarships open right now with one blindingly obvious candidate to not receive a fifth year. If Michigan strikes out on one or more of the above, do they have an Englemon in their pocket?
I have heard they do, a generic three-star defensive lineman currently committed to another BCS school. Michigan initially did not pursue him heavily but if there's a signing day flip don't be shocked. I think it'll take more than missing out on just one of the above for that to happen, but if it's a choice between leaving three scholarships open and taking a mystery guy I'm betting on mystery guy.
I like where your head is at.
That makes me a little less confident about landing all 3 OL recruits.
It's likely just in case things don't go the way the coaches want. They're probably just as stumped as us fans are. He's a tackle though, so that might not make sense, considering Diamond, the only tackle out of the 3, is committing after signing day
These coaches have been recruiting for decades. I highly doubt they are "stumped" right now. They probably have a pretty good feel for where they stand with these prospects. Everyone should stop parsing every word or action or visit, and just wait one week when everything is answered.
Unless Brian got mixed up, it wouldn't be Muller because he said a defensive lineman.
Grant and that it. Josh is not leaving the West Coast and Diamond like the SEC. Come on guys. Reeves is our best bet, however, I think he goes to OSU.
brian, if you're wrong, we can never forgive you...
I can't help but wonder what a 3 sided coin would look like, or how to flip it fairly.
Dice/assigning 2 sides of a 6 sided object doesnt count. And google images just gave me a bunch of Nickelback crap.
It would have to be a cylinder tall enough to make landing on the curved side as likely as landing on one of the flat sides, right?
...but I'm more a functional kind of guy, so it'll have to be up to you engnineers to figure out how to make it work.
Who had those put in.
Kinda. There are plenty of ways to evenly decide between 3 outcomes. Roll a 6 sided die with 2 sides per outcome. Flip 2 coins (HH, TT, and one of each) a price-is-right or wheel-of-fortune style wheel with 3 options... but flipping a coin is interesting. Throwing something like that, making it balanced, etc....
I really need to learn how to turn the engineering part of my brain off.
so your HH, TT, HT is not an equiprobable experiment. You'll get HH about 1/4 the time, TT about 1/4th the time, and a mix 1/2 the time.
The die of course works fine!
wrote that out incorrectly, you caught me. Could have left it as "multiple coin flips".
Advanced Math 425 was a long time ago... and all I remember from it is how to gamble.
And come to think of it, a standard coin is actually an unfair three sided coin, not a two sided coin.
I am the mystery 3* linemen. I still have one year of eligibility.
Is the #mysteryguy the same as #mysteryteam? Because we all know the mystery team wins (Pujols, Fielder). Very Jon Heyman of you, Brian.
I didn't post this when I talked to Josh last night because I have to take his word that he's "50/50" and I didn't want to get anybody's hopes up so I held off. But he made one interesting statement to me last night when I was texting with him and now that his announcement is just hours away, I figured I should defend my opinion. Before I let him go last night, I wished him the best of luck and joked that he wasn't going to get an ounce of sleep last night because of his decision. His response: "Haha, I know. Thank you though man. It's sad, Michigan nation has had my back more than Washington people have, ha". I thought it was interesting to say the least.
I can't tell if that's good or bad.
Given he's made it fully aware he's choosing between two schools, I just thought it was a peculiar quote. I suppose I should plaster a giant FWIW to any opinion or quote I convey.
Right, but as Tripp mentioned below, it's tough to get a read on whether it's "sad" just because you would think his hometown people would be more supportive than Michigan people, or because it's "sad" because he's going to let us down by going to Stanford instead.
Or maybe I just care way too much, whatever. We'll see in a few hours I guess.
is not in Washington. If he said No. Cal, instead of Washington it would have been a lot more interesting.
Unrelated to Stanford-Michigan. He's (probably) referring to UW fans, who are probably the most insane (not meant in good way) on the West Coast.
this does absolutely nothing for me.
when i hear sad, i think that he is not going to UM because that would make me sad. but that would not make him sad. if he is sad that people in washington don't have his back, which i agree, is sad, then it implies that washington people want him to go to stanford, which i don't know for a fact to be the case, but i can suppose that is the case since geographically he would be closer. but people who would want him to be closer would be his family and it seems like family would have your back no matter who you chose so AHHHHHHHH!!!!
I think you're reading too much into it, but again that's just my opinion.
as much, because he's going to Stanford, and that is their Pac-10 rival, so they are pissed that he's going to be playing against them.
Hope a few a-holes in the fan base don't get on him via twitter if he chooses Stanford. I think the vast majority of this fan base know he's picking between two great options.
Also, that statement to me suggests he's leaning to Stanford (i.e., UM fans will be more supportive of him spurning U of M than UW fans were of him spurning the local school). Hope I'm wrong.
i think that Brian's mystery recruit is a total red herring. he is sitting in his control room right now, alongside Warren Buffet, skyping with Dick Cheney, saying "you guys think you have power, watch this, i will singlehandedly reduce productivity in the midwest by 7% and increase clicks to recruiting sites by 33%."
*reads post about mystery commit*
*checks Purdue's DL commits for 3 star*
But I will now. Thanks.
I've heard we have a good shot at landing Ernie Sims.
"...that has a much better track record of sustained success than Stanford."
"With the lingering OSU fandom push him away or will revenge bloodlust push him towards Michigan?"
Fantastic. The man is making an argument without making an argument. I'll bet this is what it feels like to be loved by a woman who isn't your mother.
Thanks a bunch, Brian!
What time is the Garnett announcement today? Is it going to be on TV/radio/streaming at all?
6 EST. Apparently ESPNU.
Kevin Erik Magnuson
I'd pay a nickel to the printer to have that in the program next year.
Don't get me wrong, I want all of the Final 5 we're after. But to me -- it's the Reeves recruitment that sets the tone between Hoke/Meyer for future targets. Meyer needs to know that he doesn't get whatever he wants just because he had some success in Florida.
Armani, if you're reading, come be a part of something special in Ann Arbor. Coach Hoke and Mattison are building a champion, and you could be an integral part of history at Michigan.
Does anyone know if tickets are available to the Garnett presser this evening? I live close to his high school and was hoping to see him announce he's blue
I hope we haven't gotten to that point yet.
On a serious note, I hope Brian has some extra severs later today. I am willing to bet that the servers will go down.
What the guys in the Recruiting HQ group saying?
This seems overly optimistic.
Optimistic? Yes. But, overly? Maybe, maybe not.
“To land my commitment, the school is going to need to have a great school legacy of football, great players and coaches ... and a great bioengineering program,” Garnett told Sporting News last year.