Recruiting Mailbag With Steve Lorenz: Redshirt Bonfire, 2018 QBs, Positions Of Import
McDoom/Crawford/Bredeson are but a small part of the great redshirt bonfire. [Fuller]
Ed-Ace: We are excited to debut a new feature today. Recruitnik extraordinaire, regular podcast guest, and noted darts enthusiast Steve Lorenz of Wolverine247, aka The Artist Formerly Known As Aquaman, is providing a weekly recruiting mailbag. Steve does a tremendous job running the show at Wolverine247, and if you're somehow unfamiliar with his work, they're usually giving some sort of deal to get you in the door that involves getting premium access for free for a while, which seems like a bargain to me. Without further ado, here's the first edition of Steve's mailbag; keep an eye out for Steve's posts on the mgoboard—that's how he's collecting questions for these posts.
Other Andrew asks: How may the redshirt bonfire affect recruiting? Is there any benefit in how this may influence decisions of top talent?
Strictly in the recruiting sense, it's about as good a scenario as you can ask for if you're Michigan.
There's no doubt that the staff is working to get as many first-year players acclimated to the field because of the departures they will face next season. However, it's also indicative of Harbaugh's meritocracy mantra in that the best players will play, regardless of what class they're in.
This is something the coaches can take into the living room of a top player with tangible proof that they are willing to play guys if they put in the work. The tangible proof part is important because telling elite players that they will play is one of the most basic recruiting pitches out there. A lot of times, it's a simple smokescreen designed to help reel in a player. If you can show that you will play young players and play them often, it's a huge benefit because players prefer to play as quickly as they can, regardless of the program they commit to.
Michigan has been consistent in their message with this also. I haven't heard many instances of them being a "promise" type staff. If you beat the guys ahead of you, you will play. That's their philosophy, and they've stuck to it so far. Because they've stuck to it, it could give them an edge with some kids who are aware of how schools handle those types of situations.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the mailbag.]
Ish asks: Can you break down the 2018 quarterback class?
With Dylan McCaffrey locked in for 2017 and Brandon Peters obviously already on campus, there are two things I'm seeing in the way Michigan is recruiting quarterback in 2018. One, they have evaluated (not offered, yet) more pure dual-threat type guys in the cycle than they did in either 2016 or 2017. That tells me they like what they have in Peters/McCaffrey and may take somebody with some different abilities in 2018. Secondly, they are playing with about as close to house money as you can when recruiting quarterbacks in 2018 because they got guys near the top of their 2016 and 2017 boards.
I'd rather just give a quick synopsis on each guy they've offered (in no particular order):
Five-star Trevor Lawrence (PRO): Lawrence is the nation's top overall prospect. He is very likely to stay down south (UGA, Clemson, Tennessee), but may visit Michigan this fall. I don't think he will, but we'll see.
Five-star Matt Corral (PRO): Corral committed to USC early on and is rock-solid to the Trojans as of today.
Four-star Joey Gatewood (DUAL): Gatewood committed to Auburn early on and is rock-solid to the Tigers as of today. Malzahn's seat is at least warm right now, and I think Michigan will monitor his situation, although I don't expect much to come of it.
Five-star Jacob Sirmon (PRO): Sirmon committed to Washington early on and is rock-solid to the Huskies as of today. Michigan contacted him on September 1st and would like to have him up for a visit. Chances are so-so of that happening.
Four-star Artur Sitkowski (PRO): Sitkowski is the mystery-ish recruit at quarterback in 2018. He had a decent satellite camp (Paramus) and A4 Camp in June, but Michigan seems to have slightly backed off. I still think he's pretty high on their board, but not their top guy as of today. Florida (Nussmeier) is among those contending early.
Four-star Cam Rising (PRO): Rising recently committed to Oklahoma. I think he had really high interest in Michigan but they didn't recruit him hard early on, while the Sooners and others did. He's another committed guy I see them keeping tabs on.
Four-star Jack West (PRO): West committed to Stanford a couple months ago. Stanford commits rarely flip unless they don't qualify academically, which I don't believe will be a problem with West. Michigan liked, but didn't necessarily love him. He satellite camped at South Alabama in June.
Four-star Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DUAL): As we first reported in June, Thompson-Robinson is Michigan's #1 target at QB in 2018 as of today. Mom went to Michigan, and he's already been on campus. He's an interesting prospect because he hasn't started a game in his career, but he satellite camped in Los Angeles to give the staff an idea of what he's capable of. This should be a Michigan/UCLA battle.
Four-star Allan Walters (PRO): Michigan offered Walters early on in the process, and he was silently committed to the staff after last year's A4 camp. I don't believe he is that high on their board, and his transfer from Paramus Catholic probably didn't help things either.
The Future, provided he's not usurped by The Future 2.0. [Upchurch]
Stephen R. Kass asks: What are the three most critical position groups to recruit?
In my opinion, it's quarterback on top of everything else, and then both sides of the line, with the interior of the defensive line being very vital.
I think some would argue the trenches are the most important and use Alabama as an example, as they've won titles with less-than-spectacular quarterback play. However, an elite quarterback is basically synonymous with success at the college level, and it's one of the primary reasons why Michigan should consistently win big under Harbaugh and his staff.
Of course, quarterback and offensive line are probably the two toughest positions to evaluate. A lot of players up front start to develop as they're hitting 18/19 years old, so coaching staffs are trying to project future production but also guys who may not have filled out right away either. Michigan commitment Joel Honigford is probably a good example of this. He's a three-star prospect on film, but had 30 offers or so before committing to Michigan because of an anticipation that he will continue to develop at a rapid pace.
Every position has its role, but winning up front on the recruiting trail usually translates to wins on the field. It's one reason why Michigan's 2017 haul on the offensive line will be vital for them going forward.
stephenrjking asks: Who is a recruit in the past that Michigan has really regretted missing on (thought they had/could have had)?
There are a few that stand out immediately in my mind:
Michigan was devastated when four-star offensive tackle Devery Hamilton flipped to Stanford shortly before National Signing Day last January. We see how Michigan will be taking a lot of offensive linemen in 2017, and part of that is due to missing on Hamilton, a player the staff had near the top of their recruiting board at offensive tackle and a player they envisioned as both a future producer and future leader for the team.
Cass Tech running back Mike Weber was someone Michigan believed they reeled back into the fold after he flipped to Ohio State after Brady Hoke was fired. However, Stan Drayton and Urban Meyer were able to keep him on board with a last-minute push and now he's starting in his second season for the Buckeyes. He would be seeing some carries in Ann Arbor in my opinion and fit Harbaugh's offense perfectly.
An oldie but goodie to me is current Arizona State running back Kalen Ballage, who scored eight touchdowns last weekend against Texas Tech to tie the single-game NCAA record. Michigan pushed for him early, then pulled back later in the 2014 cycle and then tried to push again for him late, but by then they probably had little to no shot. If they had stayed consistent with him, they would have almost assuredly gotten him. Instead, he's at Arizona State now and may be a dark-horse Heisman contender. In fact, three of the four running backs Michigan pushed hard for late in 2014 have turned into productive players, with Marlon Mack (USF) and Vic Enwere (Cal) starting for their respective teams.
September 12th, 2016 at 3:38 PM ^
I am not sure I'll ever get over the Mike Weber situation. The fact that Drayton left literally the day after he signed infuriates me to no end.
September 12th, 2016 at 4:18 PM ^
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September 12th, 2016 at 4:25 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 6:05 PM ^
Everything else is accurate, but we didn't push Weber out.
We got Higdon, OSU flat lied to him over the phone until they couldn't talk to him over the phone anymore, he decided to go with OSU.
But he still could've come to Michigan on signing day, there was room and a scholarship waiting for him. He chose to listen to the liars and it took him months to get over it.
September 13th, 2016 at 3:08 AM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 4:30 PM ^
I'm with you EastCoast on losing sleep over Mikey Weber.
That being said, the one I will truly never get over was Justin King. He was in the bag, but then Lloyd & Co got lazy and PSU didn't. Incredibly costly mistake. You put him on the '06 team, and we win in Columbus and are in the NC game.
Go back and look at the PSU-O$U game that season ... King was the only CB in the B1G who put the clamps on Ginn, who in turn put up over 100 yards and a TD in the Game ... and, crucially, tore into us at critical moments (e.g, that bomb early on into the red zone).
Morgan Trent was a good soldier* ... but you put King on that D and we would have been something else. And I think we would have matched up against UF in the NC game way better than O$U did.
(* Pete Carroll showed in the Rose Bowl just how important that isn't)
September 12th, 2016 at 5:13 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 5:24 PM ^
If you're going to come at me son, come correct.
King was an '04 recruit. He was a veteran player in '06, not a freshman. He was all-conference that year.
Lloyd absolultely did not "back off" ,,, he sat back and stopped working. PSU sent King a letter every single day. We did nothing. They turned the tide in no small part by "showing him the love." He was very clear on this point. His words, and the words of those close to him.
But go on taking shots at posts where you admit you don't have depth of knowledge. I do, and that's why I posted it ... because it really, truly cost us deeply. Worse than RoJo, even.
(FYI, I wasn't referring to the next year's bowl, either. I'm talking '06 Wolverines versus '06 Gators. If we have King on that team, we win. Matchup very much in our favor.)
September 12th, 2016 at 6:26 PM ^
Jai Eugene was the CB that UM lost out on in 2006. Decommitted on or close to signing day with rumors about Les negatively recruting by saying that Lloyd was sick.
Either he or King might have made a significant difference in the 2006 OSU game. That secondary went 5 guys deep. Hall, Trent, Mundy, Jamar Adams, Brandent Englemon. When Adams (I think) went out for the game in the second quarter, they were basically screwed against a spread. UM was left with a choice of walking Chris Graham out over the slot or playing Johnny Sears. There's basically no right answer to that quandry. Either of those CBs would have allowed UM to at least reasonably match up.
September 13th, 2016 at 1:17 AM ^
Eugene already had a kid. I don't blame him for wanting to stay close to home.
September 12th, 2016 at 3:39 PM ^
If I'm an elite DT, I am already committed to the wolverines.
Talk about an opportunity to play early.
September 12th, 2016 at 4:18 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 4:50 PM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 9:47 AM ^
Ditto.
Should Hurst leave early for the draft,
2017 DT/Nose depth chart is whatever is left of Mone's legs & Dwumfour. That's it.
Yes, the two-deep is a hole about three gaps wide, filled by ... well, it could be you!
September 12th, 2016 at 3:47 PM ^
I think Lorenz is great on Mgoradio and this is a great addition to the weekly features but the questions selected were lame. I'm blaming Ace. Ha.
September 12th, 2016 at 3:51 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 4:12 PM ^
Has he done anything this year? Part of me hopes he's a great success because he seemed an awesome kid and I want him to do well, part of me hopes no because I'd be even more crushed if he was as good as we all hoped and he ended up elsewhere.
September 12th, 2016 at 4:23 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 8:46 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 11:39 PM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 1:18 AM ^
Really? I thought the word was he was the silent commit but the coaches told him they didn't have room.
September 12th, 2016 at 4:00 PM ^
I have no logical reason for this, but I will be crushed if Isaiah Wilson doesn't come to UM.
September 12th, 2016 at 4:04 PM ^
I'm really glad you guys brought Steve on board. I love his no-nonsense approach.
September 12th, 2016 at 4:05 PM ^
So many recruits that have Michigan in their top 5 or top 10 mention playing for a coaching staff that knows what it takes to get to the next level and play in the NFL....
Who was the last ohio state qb to have a successful NFL career? Hoying, Germaine (who got a superbowl ring sitting on the bench behind Warner in ST. Louis) Troy Smith was on a few rosters and started a couple games, flamed out. Pryor is trying to be a WR in Cleveland, Miller, WR in Houston, Cardell "who comes to ohio state to play school" is probably a back up TE in Buffalo.
There is the whole National Championship thing, but those don't pay very well, do they?
September 12th, 2016 at 4:06 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 8:46 PM ^
....but don't worry, DWTS will be thrilled to get him eventually!
September 12th, 2016 at 6:54 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 4:18 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 4:22 PM ^
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September 12th, 2016 at 4:28 PM ^
Steve - can you explain a little about Harbaugh "cooling" on kids? I understand that there are expectations that a recruit continue to develop, but does some of that also hinge on the availability of other prospects? For example, if the staff tasks a kid with maintaining weight or playing to a certain level, but somebody at the same position that is higher up on their board is interested in Michigan, does that change the kid's standing?
September 12th, 2016 at 4:31 PM ^
Thompson-Robinson hasn't started a game? So he's a backup on his high school team? But ranked four stars and Michigan's #1 target?
Seems like there must be more to this story somehow... Can't imagine this is as simple as "Backup high school QB goes to camp, is so good that he picks up 4* and gets offers from elite programs, still can't win starting job at school."
That seems insane unless he's at the same high school as Trevor Lawrence.
September 12th, 2016 at 4:37 PM ^
He's at the same high school as Tate Martell, 2017 #1 Dual Threat QB committed to Ohio St. There, your more to the story is now fixed.
September 12th, 2016 at 4:57 PM ^
Well that explains it. See, I knew there was a good reason.
September 12th, 2016 at 4:37 PM ^
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September 12th, 2016 at 4:40 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 4:38 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 4:39 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 5:42 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 5:02 PM ^
There are two factual statements being made here, but they're getting conflated into a dubious point.
Harbaugh loves him a meritocracy and will play freshmen IF they beat the guys in front of them. But so far those cases have been quite rare and for the most part due to a position of need -- LT and slot, in particular. Perry was basically hand-picked to fill a void when it seemed Harbaugh didn't immediately take to Hoke's slotbug guys (Norfleet, Canteen). I think the only cases of freshmen beating out real depth have been Gary and Evans, and Gary is hardly a dark horse story as the consensus #1 recruit.
As noted, Harbaugh's been pulling starters early to break in next year's team, but most of these guys were 3rd- or 4th-stringers. This isn't something we'd have seen with anything less than a 5 TD lead. Last year's OOC slate was tougher (and the team thinner) so until the injury bug hit we didn't see much of anyone past the 2-deep.
I don't think Harbaugh's meritocracy is BS, but fact remains, if you're a true freshman it's hard to make the 2-deep unless there's literally no one in front of you. All these burned redshirts isn't any indication Harbaugh's freshmen are outplaying the upperclassmen en masse. It happened because Harbaugh's trying to get the most he can out of a joke of an OOC slate set up by DB.
September 12th, 2016 at 5:25 PM ^
Because McDoom, Crawford, Onwenu, Bredeson and Asiasi are LoLing at the premise of your post. They've all worked themselves right into the two deep.
And that isn't counting Long or LHill, one or both of whom will be playing (though more likely for reasons along the line of your depth-only conjecture).
September 12th, 2016 at 6:30 PM ^
If these guys play against MSU, then they are certainly in the rotation. In that case tspoon would be correct.
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September 12th, 2016 at 8:41 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 5:08 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 5:23 PM ^
That would have really changed things up and having yet another fire-breather on this defensive line would just be huge. I agree with your premise. Webber would help, but how much is debatable and OSU will always have a guy, McDowell not on MSU is a big game changer in a lot of ways.
September 12th, 2016 at 5:23 PM ^
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September 12th, 2016 at 5:41 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 6:16 PM ^
Need some options at QB, no question, but also someone you can move who isn't a lock to transfer if a guy like Peters or McCaffrey is starting for awhile.
Only problem is...after you've done this once or twice, if these guys aren't winning the QB battle and starting, future recruits will notice. But then again, that would be 10 years from now...and you'd be silly not to want to play for the 10x (in a row, 13 overall) National Champion Wolverines.
September 12th, 2016 at 6:29 PM ^
September 12th, 2016 at 7:05 PM ^
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