Recruiting Mailbag With Steve Lorenz: Poaching, Appeal Of Harbauffense, WR Haul
Ed-Ace: Recruitnik extraordinaire, regular podcast guest, and noted darts enthusiast Steve Lorenz of Wolverine247, aka The Artist Formerly Known As Aquaman, is back with his weekly recruiting mailbag. If you aren't subscribed to 247 and want to read more from Steve and the gang, they're running a buy one month, get two months free promotion.
OwenGoBlue asks: Where can Michigan capitalize with so many traditional powers having terrible seasons/job speculations?
There are a handful of schools that fit the bill here.
The biggest thing to consider is not only where a coaching change may take place, but who is truly available to replace those open spots. For instance, there's only one Tom Herman available right now, and it's hard to see any other names out there that would TRULY move the recruiting needle right off the bat. Guys like Larry Fedora may end up being great coaches elsewhere, but it's not a name I think recruits are going to immediately.
LSU is an obvious one here, and I think we've discussed them already, with five-star offensive lineman Austin Deculus and Top100 safety Grant Delpit as big-timers that could end up taking officials to Michigan.
Another one is USC. Clay Helton hasn't been fired, and who knows if he will, but the Trojans aren't an attractive option right now for kids who don't want to invest their future in a staff that may not make it through a four-year time period. They're a program that is always going to get some guys, but there is enough talent in the Pac-12 footprint to where Michigan can possibly snag a guy who is either committed there or was considered a heavy lean throughout. They may actually be the situation Michigan can capitalize on most with 2017 and 2018 prospects.
Notre Dame is another one that comes to mind. Michigan hosted one of their commitments over the weekend in 2018 four-star running back Markese Stepp. Like USC, their schedule is tough, and while Brian Kelly's job doesn't appear to be in jeopardy yet, it could be if they continue to struggle. They will still do well on the recruiting trail because of their academic prestige, but Michigan is one of the few schools that can offer something close along with a tangibly bright future under their current coaching staff.
One prospect I would point to right now regarding where wins/certainty may be paying off is Aledo (TX) four-star tackle Chuck Filiaga. I labeled him as Michigan's most intriguing visitor heading into last weekend because most of the schools he was really high on (Oklahoma, Oregon, USC) are struggling mightily to begin the season. While the coaching situations there haven't heated up to a Texas/LSU level yet, they could, and Michigan has stability, NFL production and wins to stand behind under Harbaugh right now.
This is one of the bigger reasons why some of what goes on in the off-season recruiting-wise is mostly noise-based. You're going to see schools like Washington, Louisville and Nebraska potentially capitalize on strong 2016 seasons under staffs that have only been in place for a couple seasons. That's because they're winning, and their coaching staffs can recruit without looking over their shoulder. Michigan is in the same situation, and could be able to capitalize more than anybody.
[Hit THE JUMP for Steve on how Harbaugh's offense draws in recruits, his guess at the WR class, and more.]
Recruits have taken note of Harbaugh's QB development. [Fuller]
Farnn asks: Is Michigan's diverse offensive playbook appealing to recruits?
I don't normally ask those kinds of questions specifically. However, the three positions that seem to respond most positively to the way Michigan runs their offense are quarterback, the offensive line and tight end.
Tight end is an obvious one; Michigan utilizes it more and more effectively than almost any other program in the country. It immediately puts them in the conversation with almost anyone they offer at the position, and they've made it a point to pitch that they consistently dress six tight ends (if not more) for every game. Of course, they have the film to back that up as well, so it's recruiting gold for them in that aspect.
One good example of this was actually a player who didn't sign with Michigan in 2016 five-star tight end Isaac Nauta. His biggest appeal about Michigan was not just the fact that he'd get used frequently, but that he'd get used in so many different ways that he'd know the position inside and out by the time he left.
Offensive line wise, a couple prospects have talked a little about the fact that Michigan likes to run concepts that will get them moving around a little bit (a lot of pulls, etc.).
Quarterback is an obvious one. Kids are going to line up to play for Jim Harbaugh at quarterback. It's one reason why there should never really be much concern about who they're recruiting at the position. You can already see what they've done with Jake Rudock and Wilton Speight; kids notice that immediately.
Blue Carcajou asks: What's your best guess for Michigan's 2017 WR haul?
I'd have to go with where my 247Sports Crystal Ball predictions currently lie: Five-star Donovan Peoples-Jones and four-stars Nico Collins, Tarik Black and Oliver Martin.
Peoples-Jones and Collins are players I've had predictions in for a long time, and there hasn't been anything to suggest that they're leaning elsewhere, outside of a Georgia blip on the Collins radar.
Martin is someone I just told Ace and Brian that I didn't think I'd be putting any prediction in on the Iowa City star. However, it appears that Michigan feels pretty good about their chances coming out of his unofficial visit this weekend. Michigan State, Notre Dame and Iowa are still hanging around for now.
Black shifted up Michigan's board after the departure of Ahmir Mitchell. Whether it's Stanford, Auburn or Alabama, it appears Michigan is currently the far and away leader for him at this point. He is expected to announce at the Army All-American game in January.
Lightning Round
Julesh asks: Is there anything to the Aubrey Solomon talk?
A tweet with him wearing a Michigan jacket isn't really "talk" IMO. Getting a guy to recommit a second time is really difficult, and there's been no indication that the Wolverines can win mom over. I'd say it's still an uphill battle, but they're still trying.
Darup asks: Does Michigan have any silent commitments?
They probably do, but silent commitments are completely worthless. If you take anything out of these mailbags, please take that. If you aren't publicly committed to a program, you aren't committed at all. I never tease potential silent commitments on our site, and I never will.
The Blue Barracuda asks: Where will Michigan finish at ranking wise in the 2017 class?
A lot of factors to consider still, but I think anything below 5th would be a semi-disappointment for one simple reason: They should sign somewhere around 30 prospects this cycle. That alone should get them in the top five as long as they continue to win.
Drbogue asks: Are you hearing anything about Nike/Jordan as the fervor has died down again?
It's not a main talking point for recruits right now, but I think the cleats/shoes/gloves have been a pretty big hit for prospects who get to do the whole locker room experience when they visit. It's one of those factors that I don't think will ever truly decide a recruiting race, but it's one that can give them a unique edge in those types of areas. It's always hard to decipher how much that stuff really matters.
October 4th, 2016 at 3:33 PM ^
in virtually every ACADEMIC ranking. Michigan "can offer something close...?"
Pffft!
Please edit: "can offer something BETTER as well as..."
October 4th, 2016 at 3:54 PM ^
I think every ranking except US News has M higher. To be honest, I'm not sure how Notre Dame has such a great academic reputation. I just graduated and I have a buddy who went there in the same class (both of us are engineers). The pride of Notre Dame is their "Number One" business school, but my friend described it as academically a joke and a ton of people would flunk out of engineering and then just get a business degree (which is a far cry from how Ross is). And then comparing the standards of the two engineering schools and the work each of us were doing...Michigan's was so much better, not even close.
October 4th, 2016 at 4:02 PM ^
I was thinking the same thing. Except for USNews, ND trails Michigan by a wide margin in every other poll, especially the international ones where ND ranks in the hundreds. The academic prestige at ND seems to be more myth than substance. I even recall back in my academic years, there were hardly any citations in any academic literture in any field attributed to ND. Other than theology, what scholarly research are they known for or are leaders in? Maybe that's changed in the intervening years? Anecdotally as well, I've had people tell me ND was a joke academically and that the students are merely pampered, not challenged. USNews may be a product of the self-fulfilling fallacy that ND is academically prestigious--don't they factor 'reputation' metrics? I'm willing to be dissuaded.
October 4th, 2016 at 4:03 PM ^
Do they still include acceptance rate as part of their criteria? ND's is ~18% to UofM's 28%, but we reject a lot more applicants simply based on size. UofM's enrollment is almost 4X larger than NDs. I can see a recruit favoring ND's small campus environment over UofM's. But academically? With that larger enrollment comes a larger alumni network. Yes, a lot of people like Notre Dame, but the number who actually went there is much smaller than UofM.
October 4th, 2016 at 4:04 PM ^
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October 4th, 2016 at 6:49 PM ^
October 5th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^
When my brother was an ME at UofM, they told him the top X number of students at UofM had higher SAT scores than MIT. (X being the total number of students at MIT.) UofM has quality and quantity.
October 4th, 2016 at 10:37 PM ^
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October 4th, 2016 at 5:16 PM ^
ND's trump card in the U.S. News rankings is its "Alumni Giving Rate," which is consistently in the top 5 nationally while U-M, like most public schools, ranks considerably lower as a lot of people argue that they're already contributing through their taxes.
October 4th, 2016 at 7:43 PM ^
Michigan's endowment surpasses Notre Dame. Notre Dame ranks around # 12 with between $ 8.6 to 8.75 billion. MICHIGAN is the only public school in the top 10 ,ranking 9 or 10 with over $ 10 billion.
October 4th, 2016 at 8:50 PM ^
jmblue referred to alumni giving RATE. Meaning amount of donations per alum.
The number of Michigan's alumni (probably several fold larger) far outweighs Notre Dame's and overwhelms the relatively small difference between $10B and $8.5B (a small 15-20% difference).
Thus Michigan's RATE of alumni giving is clearly appreciably smaller than Notre Dame's.
October 4th, 2016 at 6:47 PM ^
October 4th, 2016 at 3:38 PM ^
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What's going on with Shanon Reid/Jordan Anthony's academic issues?
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Who are the most likely guys to fall out of the current commit class?
- Which of the 5 star guys are waiting until NSD to declare?
October 4th, 2016 at 4:00 PM ^
I don't think anyone is going to ever anser that question, and I actually think it's frowned upon here to even speculate as to possible decommitments. You're especially not going to get someone like Steve Lorenz.
The rumblings are that Kai-Leon Herbert is getting influenced by his friends and family to stay close to home (Florida), but we shouldn't speculate that he's leaving the class. We should simply acknowledge that he's part of this class, and has every right to continue exploring other Universities.
October 5th, 2016 at 7:59 AM ^
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October 5th, 2016 at 8:55 AM ^
October 4th, 2016 at 3:51 PM ^
Does the injury to Grant Newsome change how Alex Leatherwood, Jedrick Wills and other elite Oline prospects look at Michigan?
Perhaps there is now a road to immediate and almost a guaranteed starting position on the Oline.
Thoughts?
October 4th, 2016 at 4:01 PM ^
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October 4th, 2016 at 4:10 PM ^
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October 4th, 2016 at 4:18 PM ^
October 4th, 2016 at 4:45 PM ^
It's kind of a "hope for the best but expect the worst" scenario with Newsome now.
Leatherwood is a fully grown man. He could start at LT.
That said, I hope Newsome makes a full recovery, I'm not happy he's hurt because it could potentially help us with a recruit.
October 4th, 2016 at 6:24 PM ^
as we all hope happens, he won't have the position locked up. There might have been that perception without the injury.
October 4th, 2016 at 5:30 PM ^
uncomfortable, inappropriate question. Harbaugh spoke so highly of him and his family in his presser yesterday, yes hoping for the best but expecting the worst but also stating to the effect that if anyone can come back, Grant can. He's probably in surgery right now.
And you're asking about how recruits are reacting to this?
October 4th, 2016 at 5:49 PM ^
October 4th, 2016 at 3:53 PM ^
Wow, 30 commits means 13 more spots out there. Crazy.
October 4th, 2016 at 8:33 PM ^
October 4th, 2016 at 9:24 PM ^
We have quite a few defensive players trending our way too. We're always going to have more recruits that we have a good shot at than we have room for.
October 4th, 2016 at 10:02 PM ^
Would like to see some more LBers and their safety cousins.
October 4th, 2016 at 4:04 PM ^
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October 5th, 2016 at 9:00 AM ^
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October 4th, 2016 at 5:38 PM ^
question: are there or aren't there artesians?
October 4th, 2016 at 7:28 PM ^
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October 4th, 2016 at 8:23 PM ^
Lorenz put in a Crystal Ball for Oliver Martin to Michigan at 1:42 p.m. on Saturday.
http://247sports.com/PlayerInstitution/Oliver-Martin-at-West-Senior-144…
October 4th, 2016 at 8:36 PM ^
October 4th, 2016 at 9:49 PM ^
Interesting tidbit I heard regarding Wills is that he wants to play OT, and there are some reports that Alabama may be wanting him to play OG. I wonder what position we are recruiting him to play and if it will play any role going forward for us.
October 5th, 2016 at 10:30 AM ^
he could play his preferred position, then sort that out after he gets on campus.
October 5th, 2016 at 12:20 PM ^
If Michigan should bring Les Miles back "home" in some sort of capacity (like Biff Poggi or Gwen Bush, or Tuioti), does that move the needle for recruits who were considering LSU?
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