The Recent Football Moves Make Me Nervous
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Upchurch
I mentioned this on the podcast, but here's a text version: the recent shuffling in the football program does not fill me with a feeing of warmth. Three things that have happened that make me frown about where we are right now:
Moving Jake Ryan to MLB. The linebackers were slightly disappointing last year but mostly because they ended up playing behind guys like Nose Tackle Jibreel Black and Richard Ash. They weren't kept clean, ate a lot of instant-release blocks, and tried to cope.
Desmond Morgan is a quality player and James Ross will be once someone blocks a dude in front of him; Michigan also returns both of their backups. There is zero reason to move Ryan to the interior.
Meanwhile, SAM is much closer to the WDE spot than either interior one. Michigan will flip its line on up to 40% of their snaps, whereupon Ryan essentially is the WDE. He has never had to read run/pass from behind a defensive line. He's is prone to breakdowns he can get away with on the edge, given his athleticism and time. He has a spot as a WDE in nickel packages that gets him rushing the passer, which he's really good at. He's not used to the zone drops he needs to take from the interior. His best asset—rushing upfield—is going to happen on way fewer snaps.
That move is flat-out nonsense. Who plays SAM now? Are they moving Ross there? Playing Gant? McCray? Any knowledge we don't have about why they're making this move is bad knowledge to have about the future: it basically means that the current returning starters on the interior can't play, unless you want to be a Mike McCray booster.
Reshuffling every defensive assistant. Cornerbacks coach Roy Manning, who has never played or coached cornerbacks, sounds… not good. I'm willing to throw anyone who can recruit at a RB or WR position, but corner seems like a thing that you should either have done yourself or have a heap of previous experience doing.
Other guys do have some experience with the roles they step into, but shuffling these guys around is redolent of panic and seems unlikely to do much of anything to help. They had something very good going with their DL development, something that personnel issues may have obscured last year.
And the defense was basically fine last year until the last two games, when they got ground down by the best rushing offense in the country and blasted off the field by Tyler Lockett. Neither was entirely surprising. Meanwhile, the offensive staff is sacrosanct save the coordinator.
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Chris Bryant's departure. Not that I had much hope that Bryant was going to contribute once we'd heard about yet another surgery for the poor kid.
The issue here is that the exit, which Michigan certainly knew about or could predict before signing day, makes the whole no-commits-since August thing look even worse. It reinforces the toxicity that descended on the program midseason. It's one thing to lose the two DL you have on the hook because you can't run for yard one; it's an additional thing to replace them with air.
Depending on the status of a couple of special teams players, Michigan is one or two scholarships short and if inclined could have given a firm handshake to a couple of graduated fifth year guys. It's one thing to have a 16-man class when you've really only got 16 spots; it's another to leave three or four potential slots open, especially when you're the opposite of careful with redshirts.
That's why this class isn't quite what the star average makes it out to be, and why the recruiting tailspin hurts more than just on the defensive line.
These are the reasons I'm feeling nervous. But hey I was just feeling super optimistic in August so I'm probably totally wrong about this! That's the ticket!
February 25th, 2014 at 12:20 PM ^
February 25th, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^
2011 D also had mike martin, RVB, Kovacs and a young JMFR who could generate pressure relatively consistently, last year we didnt really have anybody who would get home even when we did blitz. If the blitz wont get to the QB consistently then you really can only be passive and hope for the mistake like we did.
February 25th, 2014 at 1:27 PM ^
Maybe we remember the 2011 D differently. I remember pretty much the whole year that the D couldn't get to the QB without blitzing. RVB did lead the team is sacks though with like 5 or something.
February 25th, 2014 at 3:35 PM ^
become MSU's defense! I want a defense as good as MSU's. SO maybe (please please please)...we are trying to emulate MSU's. Press coverage, gap blitzing, etc....Jake in the middle helps become more like MSU and Ross at SAM as well...now we need Taylor, Countess, Peppers, etc.. to press the crap out of receivers....
February 25th, 2014 at 11:50 AM ^
Is easier after a hit of Xanax.
February 25th, 2014 at 11:50 AM ^
I'm actually encouraged that the coaches are changing things around. If we had gone into next year with just about everything intact I would have been pretty afraid.
February 25th, 2014 at 11:53 AM ^
You're either trying to improve or you're going backward. In a world in which everyone else is trying to get better status quo = regression.
February 25th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^
Yeah that move to the 3-3-5 worked wonders in 2010.
February 25th, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^
February 25th, 2014 at 12:20 PM ^
Right, but "trying to improve" typically doesn't mean conducting a Chinese fire drill with the roster and coaching staff.
February 25th, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^
Hoke out, anybody but Jughead in.
February 25th, 2014 at 11:53 AM ^
Shuffling the staff is an admittance that something was amiss last season. But there's a difference between shuffling and admitting people aren't working. Beilein completely scrapped his staff after a few season because it simply wasn't working. Deep down I was kind of hoping Hoke would do something similar, but we'll see how this pans out.
February 25th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^
I was hoping the same. I dont know if reshuffling the same guys under new shells is going to make a difference.
Bigger picture games are won in the trenches and we are substandard 4 years into this regime. The DL was coached by both the HC and DC and was not impressive, and the OL was historically bad. Until these things change the end results won't be different other than at the margin. And enough about "just wait until next year" which has become the annual cry.
February 25th, 2014 at 12:40 PM ^
So you think Hoke should have scrapped his entire defensive staff?
February 25th, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^
These moves are being made because Morgan was terrible in 2013. Yes, while part of that had to do with a dismal defensive line, he too frequently missed tackles. You can't have a middle linebacker that is going to fall off tackles that often.
As for Chris Bryant, there is nothing but depth and young talent on OL -- now whether that turns into Big Ten championship talent is yet to be seen. But I'm not sure how this hurts Michigan and why you would even talk about Bryant's absence and the defensive line in the same sentence.
February 25th, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^
Michigan basketball Michigan basketball Michigan basketball Michigan basketball
February 25th, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^
As for recruiting my sense from the smoke around things is coaching staff really thought they had Hand and quite strongly on McDowell. But especially Hand. So your 16 spots are 17, and potentially 18. They didnt seem to have an adequate backup plan but they did try to get a RB but that fell through too. There was really nothing happening on recruiting front (14 or 15) post September other than I believe Runyan and 2 decommits so it was a bad fall on all fronts.
February 25th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^
Its been six long months since Michigan got a 2014 or 2015 commitment (2016 OL Swenson committed 11/25). That's an eternity in recruiting. And the lack of a backup plan to either Hand or McDowell (two very hard to read recruits) was just naive by the staff.
Supposedly they've told Damien Harris that they are taking only one back in this class, and since he's not announcing until signing day, it could be another all or nothing year at a crucial position.
February 25th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^
Everything I've heard is that Michigan is recruiting Weber fairly intensely at this point. Where did you hear that we promised Harris he'd be the only RB?
February 25th, 2014 at 12:52 PM ^
Harris' mother was told by the coaches that they're only planning on taking one RB in this class per TomVH
February 25th, 2014 at 1:05 PM ^
solid as iron while Harris remained committed. Once Harris decommitted it would be irresponsible not to go after one or more other RBs especially with Harris strongly implying that he won't make a determination until NSD.
February 25th, 2014 at 3:16 PM ^
well that's dumb. you can't potentially have no RBs for two years in a row.
February 25th, 2014 at 1:05 PM ^
Damien Harris' mom said Damien's feelings for Michigan haven't changed or lowered, just want to do it the right way.
— Tom VanHaaren (@TomVH) February 25, 2014February 25th, 2014 at 1:07 PM ^
signing one and Damien seems to know and accept that two will be signed based on comments I have seen.
They should probably clear it up with his mother though.
February 25th, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^
I think this is going the way of Hand's recruitment. Saban gets what Saban wants and now that Bama is in the recruitment, Harris I think, is gone. Glad they're working on other backs and especially Weber, the Cass Tech pipeline got hijacked, it's time to lock it back down.
February 25th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^
After Rawl's departure and not signing any RB in the last class, there's no way they only take one in 2015. You look at the depth chart, and it's clear they need at least two.
February 25th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^
It sounds dumb as you and many others have suggested (and I would agree), but Harris was apparently told by the coaches that they are only taking one RB in this class. And since he's holding out until signing day to make a decision now, if Michigan wants Harris, they either have to tell him something different about their RB situation, or wait for an all or nothing situation with him.
I don't think they can afford to wait. You absolutely need one RB in this class. At least. So if Weber or someone else good wants to commit, then you have to take that commitment and hope you can convince Harris to be part of a two RB class.
The whole just clarifies what an absolute fuck up the last six months of recruiting have been for Michigan.
February 25th, 2014 at 1:39 PM ^
Rawls' departure is immaterial - he was going to be a senior in 2014.
February 25th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^
That's not how I remember it.
February 25th, 2014 at 3:41 PM ^
but I remember a ton of times yelling at the games or at my TV for the defense to be more agressive (a great example was the end of regulation against the FRESHMAN PSU QB.....)
February 25th, 2014 at 11:57 AM ^
Maybe the coaches feel confident about the athleticism and/or playmaking ability of the guy(s) who will take over Ryan's spot or an attempt to get more speed on the field?
February 25th, 2014 at 12:01 PM ^
it's his senior year. rather than spending it being JMFR on the edge, he's going to have to learn to adjust.
February 25th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
Is there a possibility that Gedeon becomes the SAM? He played well last year and while I agree that it seems strange, Ross-Ryan-Gedeon seems like a talented LB corps if Gedeon and Ross continue to develop and Ryan gets the MIKE down.
February 25th, 2014 at 1:27 PM ^
I've been thinking the same thing. He's got all the tools you would want in a Sam.
February 25th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
February 25th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
I'm not worried about Roy Manning as cornerbacks coach. He coached the running backs at Cincinnati and did a fine job, and I don't think cornerback is going to be too difficult to coach for a guy who has played outside linebacker and coached the position. You're still occasionally reading similar keys and using similar techniques to shed blocks, jam receivers, etc.
I'm interested to see who Michigan uses as an edge rusher in nickel situations, but I don't think putting Ryan at MIKE precludes him from putting his hand down or blitzing. He's a good edge blitzer, but he's also a good interior blitzer. The bottom line is that he's good at stuff. I do remember seeing him lined up on slot receivers in slot or trips formations, and running the other way - or at least running inside - seemed like a good way to keep him out of the play. This alleviates that problem, because it puts him right in the middle of the fray.
If teams aren't going to use tight ends and try to run the ball down our throats, I think we're okay with a guy like James Ross at SAM. And if teams (MSU, Wisconsin, etc.) want to line up with a couple tight ends and run straight ahead, there are adjustments Michigan can make - they could bump Ryan out to SAM in preparation for that week, put Morgan back at MIKE, etc.
Anyway, these reshufflings don't really concern me at all. The middle of the defense is the most important, and this helps improve the MIKE position while potentially weakening the outside position slightly. There is potential for this to backfire, but until I see Jake Ryan fail at playing MIKE, I won't be concerned.
February 25th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^
You and your God damn rational positivity!
February 25th, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^
The thing I'm concerned about is the offensive line.
February 25th, 2014 at 12:10 PM ^
Any sense of crisis begins and ends with the OL, to me.
But if we can find more reasons to be nervous and scared, why not drill into those seams for all they're worth in the meantime, right?
February 25th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^
Guys moving backwards on defense.
February 25th, 2014 at 1:02 PM ^
Well played.
February 25th, 2014 at 1:50 PM ^
Totally agree. I'm a little suprised at Brian's take on Manning. There is a long history of coaches that have had success bouncing around between positions. The NFL is full of those types.
All of the assistant's know the system, the techniques, etc. I think giving all of the players a new position coach could be a healthy move for player development.
February 25th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^
Why we ended up being so short and knew it was quite possible we would lose Bryant is mystifying.
I have brought this up before, but will keep doing so b/c with Bryant out, it increases the already high-likelihood of mgoblog posts about how young are OL is and that it is a valid excuse for Hoke if we go 7-5/8-4 this year.
Here is the list of the top JC OL tackles: http://247sports.com/Season/2014-Football/CompositeRankings?InstitutionGroup=JuniorCollege&Position=OT
Notice the schools who brought these folks in: Alabama, FSU, A&M, Tenn, Maryland, Arkansas, Indiana and hey...Michigan State (two of them)!
When you have lack of experience/size/depth at a position, and scholarships to use, you should do something about it, especially when some of your main competition is. Nothing short of malpractice by Hoke & co.
February 25th, 2014 at 1:03 PM ^
The company line that I always read about why UM doesn't pursue many juco's is that it's tough for them to get into UM (credits transferring??). Doesn't mean they shouldn't try if there's a need though.
February 25th, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^
But if the JUCO players aren't going to get admitted, then the coaches would simply be wasting their time going any further. UM is strict about what transfer credits they accept. They're not alone in that. You rarely see JUCOs at any of the upper echelon academic programs.
February 25th, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^
1) We've had Juco's in the past - not very many (e.g., Russell Shaw, Austin Panter) but we've done it.
2) Beyond that, if you look at that list of Juco recruits, you'll see schools with similar academic profiles as U of M -- Cal Berkeley, Indiana, Purdue, Florida (along with UCLA and Penn State offering a couple guys, just not getting them).
I find it unbelievable that those schools can figure out how to find guys whose credits transfer to their schools, but U of M is flummoxed on how to do it themselves. I can understand not being able to find many guys who qualify, but not being able find any means the coaches just aren't looking.
February 25th, 2014 at 3:29 PM ^
This is not a recent development, and it doesn't just apply to athletes—UM has been extremely strict about transfers for at least 40 years. A good friend of mine was trying to transfer from another school into UM in the early 1970s, and he was able to transfer just a small portion of the credit hours he took at the other institution. Believe me, he felt like he got screwed, and he wasn't an athlete.
I have no problem that the football program is not free from the same constraints. Now if you want to take the view that this is a cynical ploy by UM to increase tuition dollars at the margins, fine, but this is not a case of anybody being flummoxed except for those who refuse to recognize the underlying nature of the situation, which is rooted in academic standards, whether for ill or good.
February 26th, 2014 at 12:13 AM ^
Personal experience is always helpful, but bringing the example of one person from 40 years ago doesn't show anything, one way or the other. I had two friends -- one 20 years ago and another 10 years ago -- who successfully transfered 60 credits, each, from Michigan CCs to U of M.
But beyond our anecdotes, college has changed a great deal due to costs, shared degree programs, etc. For example, about a year ago UM formalized a program with Washtenaw CC to allow ease of transfer credits from both schools. More importantly, this story notes "100 students transferred from WCC; overall, 377 students transferred to U-M from community colleges (in 2012)".
So you're telling me U of M has the ability to take 350-400 kids a year from CCs, yet somehow can't figure out how to have any of those kids be football players?
I'm not naive. I am 100% positive some of the HS seniors we take only got into U of M b/c they are very good at football. Hopefully, they are succesful students while at U of M, but football was the reason they got in. The same standards can be applied to junior/community colleges.
http://www.annarbor.com/news/new-agreement-allows-washtenaw-community-c…
February 25th, 2014 at 9:37 PM ^
To my knowledge, you literally just named the only two JUCOs at Michigan in the last 20 years.
February 25th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^
The way that this defense was gashed during the season (whenever they played a decent offense) I really don't have an issue with the moves. Of course I am holding my true judgement, until I see if they really work or not. On the bright side, it will be much more difficult for teams to take Ryan out of the game....
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