Punching The Ticket: Yes, That Was Bad Comment Count

Ace



Same. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

Surprise! Getting four cracks at a fourth top-100 victory only to fall short in all of them is bad for a team's NCAA Tournament chances. Michigan was already in a precarious spot heading into the weekend; after falling to Iowa, they need at least two wins in the Big Ten Tournament to avoid missing the dance for the second straight season.

Michigan's resumé as it currently stands:

Record: 20-11 (19-11 vs. D-I), 10-8 Big Ten

RPI: 70

KenPom: 54

RPI Strength of Schedule: 69

KP SOS: 54

RPI Top-50: 3-9

RPI 51-100: 0-2

RPI 101+: 16-0

Unless Penn State (#114) pulls some upsets in the BTT—they draw Ohio State in the second round for the right to play Michigan State—Michigan isn't going to pick up any more RPI top-100 victories without an upset over Indiana; that, of course, would require the Wolverines to beat Northwestern on Thursday, which KenPom projects has a 57% chance of happening.

Of the 89 brackets currently comprising the Bracket Matrix, Michigan makes only 46 of them, and the more recently updated brackets almost all omit the Wolverines; they're the second team left out of the field in the consensus. After updating his bracket last night, CBS's Jerry Palm placed M as one of the first four teams out, citing the lack of quality wins as the primary reason they're not in:

Michigan has fallen off the bracket for now. The Wolverines lost at home to Iowa 71-61 on Saturday to fall to 3-9 against the top 50, 3-11 against the top 100 and 10-11 against the top 200.

Those are all bad numbers. Michigan will have a lot of work to do in Indianapolis at the Big Ten tournament.

Michigan fell off the Yahoo big board. They're the fourth team out to ESPN's Joe Lunardi. Notably, Michigan is projected to miss the tourney before accounting for the inevitable bid-stealers that will arise from the conference tournaments this week. Even if the Wolverines get a lot of help from other bubble teams, it's difficult to see a path to the tournament that doesn't involve a victory against Indiana.

I guess I'll post a rooting guide anyway. Teams you want are in bold, bubble teams are in italics.

  • Monmouth vs. Iona (MAAC championship) (tonight, 7 pm, ESPN)
  • Green Bay vs. Valparaiso (Horizon semifinal) (tonight, 7 pm, ESPNU)
  • Pepperdine vs. St. Mary's (WCC semifinal) (tonight, 9 pm, ESPN)
  • BYU vs. Gonzaga (WCC semifinal) (tonight, 11:30 pm, ESPN2)*
  • Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh (ACC 2nd round) (Wednesday, noon, ESPN)
  • Washington State vs. Colorado (Pac-12 1st round) (Wednesday, 5:30, Pac-12 Network)
  • UCLA vs. USC (Pac-12 1st round) (Wednesday, 9 pm, Pac-12 Network)
  • Arizona State vs. Oregon State (Pac-12 1st round) (Wednesday, 11:30 pm, Pac-12 Network)
  • Arkansas vs. Florida (SEC 2nd round) (Thursday, 1 pm, SEC Network)
  • Butler vs. Providence (Big East quarterfinal) (Thursday, 2:30 pm, FS1)
  • Penn State vs. Ohio State (Big Ten 2nd round) (Thursday, 6:30 pm, ESPN2)

*You want St. Mary's to beat the winner in the title game; both BYU and Gonzaga are on the bubble but the Zags are closer to getting in.

Comments

In reply to by ryholly

Stringer Bell

March 7th, 2016 at 5:41 PM ^

Who improved this year? Donnal who went from awful to merely bad, and Rahkman who went from little used bench player to decent starter? Otherwise everyone either got worse or stayed the same.

schreibee

March 7th, 2016 at 5:51 PM ^

Well you did just answer your own question there String.

Donnal improved and not just a little, a WHOLE lot.

And Rahk improved a great deal as well.

And I actually liiked Walton's game quite a bit this year. Better than I had before.

Agree that most of the rest treaded water at best.

And then there's Kam Chatman. Sheesh, what a miscalculation we (and the recruiting services) made on his talent! He could do with a return to the West Coast, maybe some E. Washington/S. Oregon type school where he could get his mind right.

Portland State still exist?

who was that guy that led the nation in scoring from that school?

Stringer Bell

March 7th, 2016 at 5:57 PM ^

I would've liked to have seen Chatman get more run this year. I thought he showed decent potential and an improved shot towards the end of the year, but Beilein kept sticking with Duncan who couldn't make a 3 pointer to save his life and is awful defensively, and Dawkins who is quite possibly the worst defensive player in the country. At least Chatman brings size, rebounding, and playmaking ability if nothing else. Oh well.

matty blue

March 8th, 2016 at 8:47 AM ^

without turning this into a yes-no beilein post, that's been a disappointing part of this season...there've been any number of games where we really needed a spark, and instead of throwing chatman out there to see what he could do, he might run andrew dakich.

i know, different roles on the team, different skill sets...and the beilein system notoriously takes some time to gather, but come on - dakich is not going to lead you anywhere.  kam chatman actually might, if he can get his legs under him.  let's see what he can do.

In reply to by ryholly

N. Campus Tech

March 7th, 2016 at 5:47 PM ^

My concern is that we were saying the same thing last year. While this year's squad did earn 2 additional Big Ten wins, and didn't lose to an EMU/NJIT caliber team, the team looks really bad. Worse than. last year's team.

There was so much promise coming into the season based on the expectations of the 2014 class and healthy upper classmen.

Something went horribly wrong. My basketball knowledge isn't good enough to know what the cause is, bus the symptoms are manifesting as a shit Defensive efficiency, turnovers and a lack of hustle/grit (there's no Novak or Burke in the locker room)

N. Campus Tech

March 7th, 2016 at 6:41 PM ^

They played close games against tough teams. they played to their full potential.

You can't say that about this year's team. Even with Caris and Spike out, they played down to inferior opponents, and we're run out of the court by any team with a pulse (Maryland and Purdue games excluded).

In reply to by ryholly

AmayzNblue

March 8th, 2016 at 8:36 AM ^

This is all truth. We basically lost one of the best players in the Big 10 in Caris and Spike was electric with the ball. Spike also seemed to instill confidence in the rest of the team when he was on the court. This year is like playing with 65% health of the team and what's left is a bunch of freshmen




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Wolvie3758

March 7th, 2016 at 5:55 PM ^

about this team today as I was Sat and the last 2 months...Basketball is dead to me again..It feels Like Eleerbee and Amaker all over again..and the Hockey team too..Minny has done everything possible to hand the title to Michigan and as they have the previous 3 years they have absolutey CHOKED

Swayze Howell Sheen

March 7th, 2016 at 6:06 PM ^

honestly, this is not a team that is fun to watch. they just lose against reasonable teams. it's boring and they look bad. you can say what you want about firing/not firing, but the team is not very good.

 

PGDC

March 7th, 2016 at 6:33 PM ^

Jebus. I am 44 and grew up in AA. What exactly are we complaining about? Michigan isn't an historical bball powerhouse. JB was the right and best hire for us. Expectations of this fan base is out of whack. We can be a clean program that can be proud or cheaters. JB is still one of the most respected coaches in the nation. Trying to campaign for his firing will only make his difficult recruiting job that much harder. Enjoy what we have and trust next year will be better.

Stringer Bell

March 7th, 2016 at 6:44 PM ^

You realize there's a middle ground between "clean and proud" and "cheaters"? There are programs that recruit well and make the tournament on a regular basis that have never been linked to cheating. Just because you don't recruit like Kentucky or Duke doesn't mean you have to recruit like a MAC school (and play like one).

Glennsta

March 7th, 2016 at 7:29 PM ^

I could accept 20-11 from this team, given the talent level.  But what bothered me was HOW they looked, especially how they got clowned by Indiana and MSU before getting mildly smoked by Iowa and looking hopeless in those games.  All of those 3 games were at home and they were all against teams that they should have had a chance against when they played them.

The weak talent level is a whole 'nother issue.  But, to me, this team did not look like it was prepared to play winning basketball.

adcough

March 7th, 2016 at 10:13 PM ^

Let's be real here. It is on the coach. He struck out on recruiting and the cold not instill defensive or offensive principles. So depressing to see more athleticism on a random big 10 team such as Penn state. Spare me the knee jerk reaction that UM beat PSU.

Go Blue in Tampa

March 8th, 2016 at 10:07 PM ^

Like calling for the ouster of JB after bringing this program back from the Brian Ellerbee days... I was at Michigan for the Fab Five, and JB has gotten us back to that level. if he would just offer hookers and blow to the recruits like everyone else, we'd be in business...

chatster

March 8th, 2016 at 6:46 AM ^

Not great, Bob
 
  • Iona beat Monmouth 79-76
  • Green Bay beat Valparaiso 99-92
  • Saint Mary's beat Pepperdine 81-66
  • Gonzaga beat BYU 88-84

And Big Apple Buckets' NIT Bracketology gave Michigan the two seed in the "Pittsburgh Region," opening against IPFW. LINK