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Punching The Ticket: The Song Remains The Same Comment Count

Ace


Michigan is running out of margin for error. [Patrick Barron]

Michigan's loss at Wisconsin was far from unexpected. Nonetheless, the Wolverines are even closer to the wrong side of the bubble than they were heading into the weekend. The loss to the Badgers didn't help; neither did a couple results that affected opponent RPI rankings.

The resumé as it currently stands:

Record: 20-10 (19-10 vs. D-I), 10-7 Big Ten
RPI: 57
KenPom: 47
RPI Strength of Schedule: 67
KP SOS: 49
RPI Top-50: 3-8
RPI 51-100: 0-2
RPI 101+: 16-0

Two teams that would give Michigan a combined three more RPI top-100 victories sit just on the outside of that cutoff: Penn State (#105) and NC State (#106) both lost over the weekend. The Wolfpack's defeat was doubly disappointing since it came against Syracuse, another bubble team currently ahead of Michigan on most bracket projections.

The updated Bracket Matrix sums up Michigan's position: in the field but on the edge. Despite being included in 72 of the 77 brackets, they're one of the last four at-large teams included in the consensus field; most projections have them on the 10- or 11-seed line. After being a nine-seed to both Yahoo and ESPN heading into the weekend, Michigan is a ten on the former and projected to a play-in game as an 11 on the latter. CBS still projects M as one of the last four teams in the field, playing a ten-seed play-in against St. Bonaventure. The Easy Bubble Solver also has the Wolverines as one of the final at-large squads.

There is, of course, one more chance for Michigan to all but lock up a bid in the regular season. KenPom gives M a 46% chance of beating a reeling Iowa squad on Saturday; it's hard to imagine the Wolverines missing the field with 11 Big Ten wins and a fourth against the RPI top-50.

If Michigan misses that opportunity, they'll at the very least need to win their Big Ten Tournament opener, and they're essentially locked into the eight-seed after the Wisconsin loss, which would set up a second-round matchup against Penn State, Nebraska, or Northwestern, followed by a third-round matchup against the top seed (currently Indiana, with Maryland and MSU still in the running).

Here's your rooting guide for the week. Team you want to win is in bold, fellow bubble teams are in italics, other games included for RPI purposes.

  • Syracuse at UNC (tonight, 7 pm, ESPN)
  • Kansas at Texas (tonight, 9 pm, ESPN)
  • Kentucky at Florida (Tuesday, 7 pm, ESPN)
  • Tennessee at Vanderbilt (Tuesday, 7 pm, SEC Network)
  • George Mason at George Washington (Tuesday, 8 pm)
  • Grand Canyon at St. Mary's (Tuesday, 10 pm)
  • Davidson at VCU (Wednesday, 7 pm, CBSSports)
  • Seton Hall at Butler (Wednesday, 8:30 pm, FS1)
  • Boston College at NC State (Wednesday, 9 pm, ESPN3)
  • Creighton at Providence (Wednesday, 9 pm, CBSSports)
  • Oregon State at USC (Wednesday, 11 pm, FS1)
  • Memphis at Temple (Thursday, 7 pm, ESPNU)
  • UConn at SMU (Thursday, 9 pm, ESPN2)
  • Cincinnati at Houston (Thursday, 9 pm, CBSSports)
  • Northwestern at Penn State (Thursday, 9 pm, ESPNU)

I'll update this heading into the weekend.

Comments

bronxblue

February 29th, 2016 at 3:08 PM ^

If it plays out as is, the one seed I don't want UM to get anywhere near is MSU. IU and Maryland feel far more tractable, even given IU beating them earlier.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171377

gjking

February 29th, 2016 at 3:09 PM ^

This may be a controversial opinion, but I'd rather go NIT than play in one of those stupid play-in games. I refuse to watch those games or aknowledge that they even exist. Would rather see fewer teams make it. 

Win the next two games and I think we can get into the real tournament (i.e. field of 64). 

 

 

 

 

Joined: 10/16/2011

MGoPoints: 601

jmblue

March 1st, 2016 at 9:36 AM ^

No scenario exists in which the NIT is preferable to the NCAA tournament.  Quite simply, no one cares about the NIT.

We won the NIT in 2004 and what happened?  People talked about how we hadn't made the tourney since 1998.  

Joined: 11/07/2008

MGoPoints: 102724

JeepinBen

February 29th, 2016 at 4:33 PM ^

I think there's been more than one Communication Breakdown. We're a long way from a Celebration Day. I hope they will Bring it on Home, even with the odds against them I expect the team to give No Quarter. But, if they don't make it, it'll be Nobody's Fault but Mine. Winning that tourney is turing out to be this team's Moby Dick.

Joined: 01/22/2010

MGoPoints: 32224

PinballPete

February 29th, 2016 at 4:44 PM ^

Yeah, if they win that tourney I'll have a Whole Lotta Love for Beilein, for which I'll say Thank You. If they dont make the NCAA then How Many More Times will it take? Coach might be headed for the Gallow's Pole. 

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 1105

Kwitch22

February 29th, 2016 at 4:18 PM ^

I think the easiest path is beating Iowa, then hopefully a non-Penn State team in the B1G tourney. Should be enough, even without help. It's hard watching these other teams make their own luck by winning games, while we sit there letting chances get away.

Joined: 12/04/2015

MGoPoints: 2918

Semenrew

March 1st, 2016 at 4:42 AM ^

Всем привет. Хочу сделать ряд фотографий для размещения в соц.сетях. В связи с этим хотелось бы применить опцию сверх скоростной съёмки. В съемке разместить лого организации. Как я думаю, ее будут в социалках пересылать друг другу из-за "крутости" самой фотки, а при этом будет работать логотип. Авария замедленная съемка: [url=http://www.sedatec.ru/]http://www.sedatec.ru/[/url]. Взрыв снаряда в замедленной съемке.

Joined: 11/03/2015

MGoPoints: 1

NittanyFan

March 1st, 2016 at 4:25 PM ^

but nope ----- Grand Canyon.  They exist.  Had never heard of them.  Antelopes, good nickname.  Recent D-2 call-up.  They actually have a fairly decent record (against very weak competition, admittedly).  24-5.  And coached by Thunder Dan Majerle!!!

Joined: 12/04/2012

MGoPoints: 42968