Punching The Ticket: A Marathon Saturday Awaits
Michigan could use a little help from Penn State. [Bryan Fuller]
Before digging into the current bracket projections, let's look at how the games listed in Monday's Punching The Ticket (and a couple I forgot to include) turned out. Michigan wanted the teams in bold to win.
- UNC beat Syracuse
- Kansas beat Texas.
- Kentucky beat Florida
- Vanderbilt beat Tennessee
- George Washington beat George Mason
- St. Mary's beat Grand Canyon
- Virginia Tech beat Pitt
- VCU beat Davidson
- Butler beat Seton Hall
- Arkansas beat Alabama
- NC State beat Boston College
- Providence beat Creighton
- USC beat Oregon State
It's a mixed bag, as these tend to be, but two SEC squads—Florida and Alabama—are on the wrong side of the bubble after losses this week.
Michigan's resumé as it currently stands:
Record: 20-10 (19-10 vs. D-I), 10-7 Big Ten
RPI: 57
KenPom: 49
RPI Strength of Schedule: 68
KP SOS: 53
RPI Top-50: 3-8
RPI 51-100: 0-2
RPI 101+: 16-0
Penn State remains just outside the RPI top-100 cut at #105, but they've got a good chance to finish strong and give Michigan a pair of quality wins in the process; the Nittany Lions finish the regular season with home games against Northwestern and Illinois. NC State didn't exactly cover themselves in glory with a one-point victory over winless-in-the-ACC Boston College; they still remain in striking distance at #115. The Wolfpack breaking into the top 100 would give Michigan another quality win. Yes, I still realize the top-100 cutoff is stupid and arbitrary, but that's how it works.
Not that this is a surprise since Michigan hasn't yet this week, but the Wolverines' standing in projected brackets remains relatively unchanged. ESPN and CBS still have them in a play-in game as one of the final four at-large teams to make the field; Yahoo still has them as an 11-seed narrowly avoiding a First Four game. While Michigan is one of the last four at-large teams on the Bracket Matrix, they're included in 94 of the 108 brackets. A victory over Iowa on Saturday night would almost certainly lock up a spot.
Here are your rooting interests for this weekend. You want the teams in bold; teams in italics are on the bubble; other games are included for RPI purposes:
- Memphis at Temple (tonight, 7 pm, ESPNU)
- Georgia at South Carolina (tonight, 7 pm, ESPN2)
- UConn at SMU (tonight, 9 pm, ESPN2)
- Cincinnati at Houston (tonight, 9 pm, CBSSports)
- Northwestern at Penn State (tonight, 9 pm, ESPNU)
- Yale at Cornell (Friday, 6 pm)
- Princeton at Harvard (Friday, 7 pm, ESPN3)
- Vanderbilt at Texas A&M (Saturday, noon, ESPN2)
- NC State at Notre Dame (Saturday, noon, CBS)
- Ohio State at Michigan State (Saturday, noon, ESPN)
- Providence at St. John's (Saturday, 12:30 pm, FS1)
- Syracuse at Florida State (Saturday, 2 pm, ESPN2)
- Pitt at Georgia Tech (Saturday, 2 pm)
- Marquette at Butler (Saturday, 2:30 pm, Fox/FSN)
- Creighton at Xavier (Saturday, 2:30 pm, Fox)
- Kansas State at Texas Tech (Saturday, 3 pm, ESPNews)
- George Washington at Davidson (Saturday, 3:30 pm, NBCSports)
- Alabama at Georgia (Saturday, 4 pm, ESPN2)
- Oregon at USC (Saturday, 4 pm, Pac-12 Network)
- South Carolina at Arkansas (Saturday, 5 pm, SEC Network)
- USF at Tulsa (Saturday, 5 pm, ESPNews)
- Oregon State at UCLA (Saturday, 6:30 pm, Pac-12 Network)
- Princeton at Dartmouth (Saturday, 7 pm)
- Yale at Columbia (Saturday, 7 pm)
- Florida at Missouri (Saturday, 7:30 pm, SEC Network)
- St. Bonaventure at St. Louis (Saturday, 8 pm)
- VCU at Dayton (Saturday, 8 pm, CBSSports)
- Colorado at Utah (Saturday, 9:30 pm, ESPNU)
- UNLV at San Diego State (Saturday, 10 pm, CBSSports)
- Portland at Gonzaga (Saturday, 11:59 pm, ESPN2)
- SMU at Cincinnati (Sunday, noon, CBS)
- Illinois at Penn State (Sunday, noon, BTN)
- UCF at UConn (Sunday, 2 pm, ESPNU)
- Temple at Tulane (Sunday, 2 pm, ESPN3)
Yes, you can conceivably bubble-watch on Saturday for a solid 14 hours. This is not recommended by the Surgeon General or your marriage counselor.
that people who don't think this Saturday is a win and in situation for Michigan are crazy. 21-10 and 11-7 in the BIg with 4 top 25 wins gets you into the tournament.
You are correct.
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And if we lose to Iowa and Penn State we're out. These games feel like they matter if we close L-W-L.
Will Iowa even be a top 25 RPI team if we beat them on Saturday? I knows semantics (top 25 wins would now be top 30 wins), but the quality of that potential win is dropping rapidly.
will be Top 25 when we play them, so I think it would still make the "quality wins" list on selection Sunday. I don't like Iowa coming in with something to prove though. I would much prefer them coming in feeling really comfortable and proud of themselves.
to prove game, would have been against Indiana on senior day.
You've tee'd this up in great form for those of us who have spouse/family/real jobs. ; ) I agree that a win guarantees us a spot. The question is which of your games are most crucial if we lose?
they will be playing a bunch of "opponent and start time still TBD" games in their respective conference tourneys this weekend.
Even MORE games to watch for those who want to risk their marriage and/or health!!!!
Surely you meant root for them - we want them to get the auto-bids from their respective conferences, because if they lose they might still get at-large bids.
Ivy League runner-up in serious consideration for an at-large? I actually hope so, but I'll, uh, eat a lemon if it happens this year.
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We're supposed to root for STAEE? Is the NIT that bad?
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just beat Iowa and win round 1 of BTT. don't have to think about all this nonsense
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