Preview: Wisconsin
The Essentials
| WHAT | Michigan v. Wisconsin |
|---|---|
| WHERE | Ann Arbor, MI |
| WHEN | 4:00PM EST February 6th, 2010 |
| THE LINE | Michigan -1*(!?!?!) |
| TELEVISION | CBS |
*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.
When Last We Met
The Wolverines led for much of the game, despite the traditionally... difficult... officiating atmosphere in the Kohl Center. Wisconsin was throwing up 3-pointers with little success, and shot very poorly in the game overall. However, the Wolverines fell apart down the stretch, allowing the Badgers to claw back into the lead, and emerge with a 54-48 victory.
DeShawn Sims starred for the Wolverines, scoring 23 points on just 14 shots from the field, while collecting 13 rebounds. Manny Harris scored 11 points in 36 minutes, and Zack Novak also played for 36 minutes, though he had a poor shooting day, missing all six of his attempts from the field.
Since Last We Met
Michigan has been the ultimate tease, showing improvement against Purdue and Michigan State, though they emerged winless. That tease was brought to a new level with a blowout victory against Iowa, but the charade was exposed in a thorough beating in Evanston against the Wildcats.
Wisconsin, on the other hand, is adjusting to life without Jon Leuer, struggling against Penn State (an overtime win) and Purdue (a three-point loss), but laying the hammer down on Michigan State by shooting lights-out and turning over the Spartans 13 times.
Tempo-Free Breakdown
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.
| Michigan v. Wisconsin: National Ranks | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Michigan Rank | Wisconsin Rank | Advantage |
| Mich eFG% v. Wisc Def eFG% | 225 | 39 | WW |
| Mich Def eFG% v. Wisc eFG% | 172 | 72 | WW |
| Mich TO% v. Wisc Def TO% | 20 | 221 | MMM |
| Mich Def TO% v. Wisc TO% | 63 | 3 | W |
| Mich OReb% v. Wisc DReb% | 257 | 3 | WWW |
| Mich DReb% v. Wisc OReb% | 207 | 290 | M |
| Mich FTR v. Wisc Opp FTR | 333 | 116 | WWW |
| Mich Opp FTR v. Wisc FTR | 12 | 227 | MMM |
| Mich AdjO v. Wisc AdjD | 100 | 6 | W |
| Mich AdjD v. Wisc AdjO | 38 | 23 | W |
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.
Thinking at the most facile level, a 6-point road loss could easily become a home win, but that hasn't been how it goes with the Michigan-Wisconsin series in the John Beilein era. In all three road games, Michigan has hung tough, and in both home contests, they've been blown out.
The Four Factors clearly favor the Badgers here, and I think the trend of Michigan playing close in the Kohl Center and getting blown out in Crisler is unfortunately going to continue. KenPom only likes Wisconsin by 5 (and Vegas actually favors Michigan, for some reason I don't know - free money, that), but I think a double-digit beatdown of sorts is in order.
I was at the game yesterday and it was pretty sad.
Wisconsin was hitting on all cylinders.
I would have liked to see Coach B take out some of the starters if they are not having a great night. Stu is usually okay, but it was inexplicable that he played 37 minutes when he only produced 0 points, 1 rebound, and 3 assists. Novak was not much better in his 35 minutes.
LLP looked decent with 5 points in 7 minutes; he should have been subbed in a few more times yesterday.
that Michigan showed improvement against Purdue? I mean Purdue was ahead by 15-20 points for most of the game and Michigan mounted a run to cut the lead to 10 with seconds remaining in the game. The game was competitive only for the first 5 minutes when Sims was on fire.
It's like Iowa fans saying they showed improvement against Michigan because they lost only by 14 after barely being able to score in the first half. My point being that the final score being somewhat close doesn't mean either game was competitive at all.
Didn't think id live to see a team as bad as our football team has been the last 2 years.. Boy was i wrong. Were making Wisconsin look like the goddamn 97 bulls.
Stay true for Blue
Holy crap and berries, Ed Hightower is officiating this game. I have to go now and die of shock!
“I am going to treat you all the same. Like Dogs.”
For some reason, I have an excellent feeling about this game. Wisc didnt impress me in the first meeting.
- Greymarch
I write about Michigan sports at my website.
http://www.greymarch.com
Considering how close the game was in Wisconsin, Michigan has a darn good chance of winning this game. I like Michigan by 3, Michigan 64, Wisc 61.
- Greymarch
I write about Michigan sports at my website.
http://www.greymarch.com
I was surprised by how flat we looked.
To be fair, Wisconsin is peaking right now based on their past two performances. I would not be surprised if they went undefeated to finish out the big ten and get a piece of the conference title.
In contrast, the prospect of not making the NCAA tournament seems to be affecting our team morale.
We definitely have what it takes to win the B10 tourney, so I am just hoping for a late season run.
I've said before 17-13 and a Saturday showing in the BTT gives us a shot. (Or, of course, we could win the BTT.) 6-2 gets us there.
Our toughest home game is today. (Although going 3-0 vs the remainder is a taller task than winning just one today.) Win the Iowa away game. Then do the improbable by picking off one @OSU or @MSU. (@Minn would be helpful, too.) That gets us to 10-8 B10, 17-13 overall, with a strong finish.
2/06 WIS 4:00 PM
2/11 @ MINN 7:00 PM
2/16 @ IOWA 9:00 PM
2/20 PSU 6:00 PM
2/23 ILL 7:00 PM
2/27 @ OSU TBA
3/02 MINN 8:00 PM
3/06 @ MSU TBA
The win over Northern Michigan counts for absolutely nothing since they aren't D-1. And that would (assuming you don't lose to Iowa or PSU) mean six wins over top 100 teams. That doesn't even get you close, IMO. After the loss today, I don't think you have a chance short of making Sunday in the BT tourney ... and if you lose that one, it had better be your only loss the rest of the way.
How much coke do you have to do to come up with that line
A test for the system of betting the unranked favorite over a ranked team. A big test, to say the least.
the betting the next four hours should be interesting. i wonder if wisco wont be -1 by tip?
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