||Michigan v. Wisconsin
||7:30PM CST/8:30 EST
January 20th, 2010
||Big Ten Network
*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.
Though UConn is hardly a world-beater this year, Michigan's win over the Huskies finally provides much-needed momentum for a hoops squad that has struggled badly. The Wolverines need to seize that momentum and steal a couple games they aren't expected to if they want the NCAA tournament to remain—or, rather, become—an option. This Wisconsin game is the first in a week of opportunities for that.
The defensive renaissance that started with the Kansas game (and has taken a couple breaks in losses to Indiana and Northwestern) needs to continue for Michigan to have a chance to win in Madison. It's clear that Michigan won't have a consistent third scorer, but if several guys take turns chipping in a few points, there should be enough offense with one or both of Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims carrying the load.
Something that's become a bit of a problem of late has been a newfound tendency for Michigan to turn over the ball. Everything is relative, as the Wolverines plunged from #1 nationally to 20th. That's an effect of shooting fewer threes, but Michigan has little choice but to go inside more given the ugly numbers they've put up from behind the arc.
The Badgers come into this game perched near the top of the Big Ten standings at 14-4 on the year, undefeated record in the Kohl Center. (Michigan hasn't won in Madison in ten years.) In the noncoference, the Badgers lost a neutral-site game to Gonzaga and at UW-Green Bay, with road losses to Michigan State and Ohio State in the Big Ten.
The Badgers will be without junior center Jon Leuer, who is probably out for the rest of the regular season with a broken wrist. He was one of the team's key players, leading in shot blocking and defensive rebounding. Wisconsin plans to go to a smaller lineup without him. Senior guards Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon play the lion's share of minutes for Wisconsin (both averaging over 32 minutes per contest). Sophomore Jordan Taylor will get a playing time boost from the newly implemented three guard look. Forwards Keaton Nankivil and Tim Jarmusz will be the primary frontcourt players for the Badgers.
The loss of Leuer is something Wisconsin is still adjusting to, but it might not necessarily benefit Michigan that much, as they performed so well against UConn's taller lineup by taking advantage of the Huskies inability to guard four players around the perimeter. On the other hand, Deshawn Sims has always struggled against significantly bigger opposition and was on a tear before he ran into UConn's usual array of enormous shotblockers. He could go off.
Expect Wisconsin to play their traditional style, slowing the game waaay down, and getting physical with the opposition.
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.
|Michigan v. Wisconsin: National Ranks
|Mich eFG% v. Wisc Def eFG%
|Mich Def eFG% v. Wisc eFG%
|Mich TO% v. Wisc Def TO%
|Mich Def TO% v. Wisc TO%
|Mich OReb% v. Wisc DReb%
|Mich DReb% v. Wisc OReb%
|Mich FTR v. Wisc Opp FTR
|Mich Opp FTR v. Wisc FTR
|Mich AdjO v. Wisc AdjD
|Mich AdjD v. Wisc AdjO
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.
This matchup favors Wisconsin in nearly every category, and rightfully so. However, Michigan's rankings in all factors have been climbing slowly but surely over the past month as they put together some of their best performances of the year.
Michigan's advantages come in holding onto the ball (which, unfortunately, is one of the few areas that has gone downhill of late), and keeping the opposition off the free throw line. They'll have to take advantage of those categories to pull off an upset, and play some of their best ball in other facets.
That's unlikely, however. The Wolverines haven't been able to play a team nearly as physical as Wisconsin in quite some time, and the Badgers are exceptional at defending the home court. They'll slow down the game, beat up Michigan in the paint, and take advantage of opportunities that Michigan provides. If Manny Harris learned his lesson from last year's contest in Madison (lesson: regardless of how hard you get fouled, the referees will not blow their whistles), Michigan has a much better chance.
In the end, this looks like a low-scoring game with Wisconsin never too far ahead. 56-50, Badgers.