Preview: Wisconsin Comment Count

Ace

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT Michigan (20-9, 10-6 B1G) at

Wisconsin (18-10, 10-5)
WHERE Kohl Center

Madison, Wisconsin
WHEN 6 pm ET, Sunday
LINE Wisconsin -6 (KenPom)
TV BTN

PBP: Jeff Levering

Analyst: Jon Crispin

Right: Nigel Hayes is a big presence for the Badgers. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

THE US

Caris LeVert is doubtful for Sunday's game and even that might be optimistic; John Beilein said this afternoon he doesn't expect LeVert to practice the next two days. LeVert's availability for the rest of the season is in serious doubt. Beilein insinuated he could be shut down completely if he's not ready to play next week. This is depressing as hell.

THE STAKES

Covered in exacting detail yesterday. A win would all but lock up a spot in the NCAA Tournament. A loss would keep Michigan on the bubble; they'd have one more shot at a bid-clinching victory in the regular season next Saturday against Iowa. If Michigan loses both, they'd need to win at least one game—and quite possibly two—in the Big Ten Tournament to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.

This game also affects BTT seeding. Michigan sits a half-game behind Wisconsin in the conference standings. A victory would keep the Wolverines in contention for the #4 or #5 seed; a loss and they're more likely to be somewhere in the 6-8 range depending on the Iowa outcome.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss SIBMIHHAT
G 3 Zak Showalter Jr. 6'2, 184 77 13 No
Good role player. Low usage, leads B1G in eFG%, solid defender.
G 24 Bronson Koenig Jr. 6'4, 193 86 20 No
Excellent outside shooter, takes care of ball, struggling inside the arc.
F 30 Vitto Brown Jr. 6'8, 230 61 21 Kinda
Decent offensive rebounder, great midrange game, hits occasional three.
F 10 Nigel Hayes Jr. 6'8, 240 90 27 Kinda
Not shooting well from field, but gets tons of FTs. Good post passer.
F 22 Ethan Happ R-Fr. 6'9, 235 61 23 Very
Good rebounder, leads B1G in steal rate, draws lots of fouls, okay finisher.
G 21 Khalil Iverson Fr. 6'5, 205 33 15 Yes
Minutes vary wildly from game-to-game. Coming off solid showing vs. Iowa.
G 11 Jordan Hill R-So. 6'3, 178 31 13 No
Low-usage shooter hits 37% of threes, doesn't do much else.
F 25 Alex Illikainen Fr. 6'9, 220 25 14 No
Stretch four makes 50% of twos, 38% of threes. Not a rebounder.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Wisconsin started the season just 9-9 (1-4 B1G) and were a team in turmoil with the mid-December retirement of coach Bo Ryan, King of the Bug People. The Badgers have turned it around under longtime assistant Greg Gard, however, winning nine of their last ten with victories at Maryland and Iowa—their only loss in that span came at Michigan State.

The team's star is burly forward Nigel Hayes, who leads the Badgers in points and assists and is second in rebounds. While his counting stats are impressive, his efficiency has plummeted without Frank Kaminsky flanking him in the frontcourt; Hayes is shooting 41% on twos and 31% on threes. He manages to offset much of shooting issues by leading the conference in fouls drawn and sinking 74% of his free throws.

Hayes will be a tough matchup for Michigan, especially since he's joined by two other skilled forwards with size in the starting lineup. Vitto Brown crashes the offensive glass and boasts a really good midrange game; while he's not a sharpshooter from beyond the arc, he does make the occasional triple. Redshirt freshman big Ethan Happ is already one of the top rebounders in the conference and a disruptive force on defense—he leads the conference in steal rate, though he's not an imposing shot-blocker. Happ is a decent finisher around the basket and like Hayes draws a lot of fouls, though at 64% from the line he's not as good at converting his freebies.

Wisconsin doesn't have a true point guard. Their shortest starter, Zak Showalter, is a very efficient low-usage role player; he's making a nice 69% of his twos and 40% of his threes to lead the Big Ten in eFG%. He's also a quality perimeter defender. Bronson Koenig remains a very good three-point shooter (40%) but he's making only 36% of his shots inside the arc in conference play; he takes care of the ball but doesn't have a high assist rate.

As is the norm for Wisconsin, the bench doesn't get a lot of minutes, and the key reserves are all low-usage guys. Guard Jordan Hill and stretch four Alex Illikainen both provide solid outside shooting; guard Khalil Iverson is a good finisher who's struggled mightily with turnovers.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.



Four Factors explanation

It should come as little surprise that Wisconsin has the slowest tempo of any team in the conference; Gard has the team running essentially the same offense they had under Ryan. While the Badgers are a mediocre shooting squad, they're slightly above-average in efficiency because they get to the line as often as any team in the B1G.

Unlike the offense, the defense has a very different statistical profile from Ryan's squads. Under Gard, Wisconsin has relied much more on forcing turnovers, but they're not nearly as good on the glass. There's still a common thread: Wisconsin makes it very difficult for opponents to attempt three-pointers, though when they do they go in quite often (39% in B1G play). 

THE KEYS

Avoid fouls, especially if you're Mark Donnal. This is important for a couple reasons, first and foremost that Wisconsin isn't an efficient team when they aren't getting to the line. Avoiding fouls is much easier said than done for Michigan in this game—they'll be at a distinct size disadvantage at two of the three frontcourt spots. The one spot they won't is at the five; Mark Donnal needs to hang in there and avoid the silly fouls 25 feet from the hoop that he had against Northwestern. Michigan needs his shot-blocking and inside finishing.

Let Rahk create. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman has emerged as Michigan's most reliable offensive option of late and this looks like another game where he can lead the team in scoring. While Wisconsin's two-point defense is impressive, they don't feature a shot-blocker, and M is going to need someone to attack the basket in order to open up the perimeter—Rahk should be that guy.

Ride the hot hand. Both Duncan Robinson and Aubrey Dawkins are going to be minuses on defense in this game; whichever one is on the court is going to have to guard Vitto Brown and give up a lot of size. Since that's the case, Michigan might as well play the one who's making his threes; of late, that's been Dawkins.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Wisconsin by 6.

The matchups in the frontcourt don't favor Michigan and Wisconsin is good at preventing clean three-point looks. If the Wolverines don't drill a healthy number of their limited opportunities from beyond the arc, it's hard to see a path to victory, especially when factoring in the Trohl Center juju.

THE MOMENT OF ZEN

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview.

Comments

ijohnb

February 26th, 2016 at 3:07 PM ^

sleepy Sunday 6:00 PM tip time.  I typically like this start time for a road game, but I am not sure if I am crazy about it here for some reason.  I feel like this is a game that Michigan needs to play ASAP.  I fear a sleepy performance in this sleepy time slot.

h625

February 26th, 2016 at 3:34 PM ^

Even if Michigan loses out, I think they still make the tournament.

Michigan has a winning record in a strong conference. Plus no bad loses. Simply put: they're in.




Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

ijohnb

February 26th, 2016 at 3:42 PM ^

if they lose out, including a loss in the BTT tourney, they are 20-12, 10-8 in conference, only two wins over Top 50 teams.  The first round BTT loss would presumably be a "bad loss" which would take that part out of their resume.  With MSU, Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin, Indiana, Maryland already in from BIG, I think Michigan with that resume is in the NIT.  I think the first round BTT win would do it though.   I think they should just go ahead and win this one and get it out the way.

In reply to by ijohnb

M-Dog

February 26th, 2016 at 4:17 PM ^

Yeah, our record is not good enough to survive a 1st round loss in the BTT if we lose to Wisc and Iowa.  If we win in the BTT 1st round even if we lose to Wisc and iowa, we are solidly in.  

There really is no middle ground if we lose to Wisc and Iowa . . . we are solidly in with a BTT 1st round win, and clearly out with a BTT 1st round loss.  All or nothing.

 

Kwitch22

February 26th, 2016 at 4:56 PM ^

Is it just me or does everyone hate these guys? From the buzzer beaters, to the buzzcuts, to Bo Ryan's punchable face (yes I know he's gone, but wherever he is I know it looks like it needs a fist in it), I just can't stand them. Besides Bucky he is somewhat okay.

ijohnb

February 26th, 2016 at 7:36 PM ^

some reason I haven't developed an intense hate for Wisconsin hoops. Perhaps it is because I respect how they operate? I find them to be a self-made power, through sheer determination. I want to beat them badly but I don't have any issue with them.

Richard75

February 27th, 2016 at 10:43 AM ^

Yeah. They've had our number and then some. We're 2-14 against them under Beilein.

Besides the obvious (2-14), the frustration for me stems from the fact that the two programs are built on a lot of the same principles—working the shot clock, avoiding fouls and turnovers, developing non-elite talent—but Wisconsin does it better.




Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Go Blue in MN

February 26th, 2016 at 5:22 PM ^

Any chance Ryan dogged it earlier in the season to make things look better for his protege Gard?  No, I don't believe it either, but the scenario makes it almost impossible for Alvarez to do anything other than sign Gard to a long-term contract.  It couldn't have worked out better in terms of Ryan's desire to pick his own successor.

funkywolve

February 26th, 2016 at 6:00 PM ^

I seriously doubt he dogged it. but I could see maybe decrease in motivation and/or his figuring out a way to get Gard the HC job affecting Wisky's play.  At the same time, they lost some pretty good players from last year and it might have just taken the team a while to find their roles.

Agree though, it looks like it's going to be hard for Alvarez to not offer the job to Gard.

ijohnb

February 26th, 2016 at 8:10 PM ^

was the ultimate "dagger.". If ever that term applied it was for that shot. Whisky was at the end of a pretty substantial run before that shot. That was a "drop the mic" moment for Sauce, along with the Illinois 30 footer before half. (And basically the entire game at Breslin)

michiganfanforlife

February 26th, 2016 at 6:39 PM ^

I will root like hell for Michigan, but most games this year have been like pulling guts out of a zombie and scraping them all over your face and clothes. Ugh. Please god let us just put a whole game together. I know it won't happen but I would love to see Doyle and Donnell on the floor at the same time and let Zac play the three. Rahk at point guard and Derrick at the 2.




Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Wolvie3758

February 27th, 2016 at 8:12 AM ^

NW and NC State...Penn St  just moved into the top 100 which gives us 2 wins against top 100...NC state is 101 and NW 109..If they can move into the top 100 that gives us 2 more wins...and of course root for all the rpi top 40-50 to lose as we are currently #51

Teams we want to Lose Providence, Pitt, Florida , S Dakota St,  Alabama, Wich St,  San Diego St,, Akron and Monmouth....Root for UConn #43 as this helps our RPI and SOS if they win....

OkemosBlue

February 27th, 2016 at 5:53 PM ^

Yes there are similarities between how Wisconsin and Michigan build their teams, but there are also major differences.  On average, Michigan has had more talent recently--according to the rating services at least and Michigan's players do, in general, look more fluid and athletic to me at least.  More importantly, Ryan built his teams on defense and limited offensive skills--the opposite of how Beilein builds his teams.        

      These differences showed at tourney time until the last two years where Wisconsin almost always "underperformed" and Michigan tends to "overperform."   The recent record is humbling, but I would rather Beilein than Bo Ryan.   Too many recent defections to the NBA and too many injuries have caused Beilein's teams to disappoint those of us, like me, who would like to play for the National Championship every year or even a Big Ten championship.