Preview: Purdue Comment Count

Ace

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Matt pinged me (Seth) this morning because rates are really good--like good enough that even if you refi'ed in the last couple of years it might save you some K's to do it again.

This was right after we got another one of these emails: 

Brian -
I just finished a refi with Matt. Fantastic service and mortgage. I'd love to plug the experience on the site but am not sure how. Don't want to look contrived or break any OT offseason rules. Getting such a great mortgage made my wife not mind my mgoblog usage so much this week.
Thank you,
Texagander

Ditto here, and ditto for Brian. Matt will get you a better rate, charge you less, then join you in going full Old Yost on the Michigan Tech goalie. He still has a deal going on for two tickets to a basketball game if you end up using him. We highly recommend you do.

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THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT Michigan (18-7, 8-4 B1G) vs

Purdue (20-5, 8-4)
WHERE Crisler Center

Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN 2 pm ET, Saturday
LINE Purdue -1 (KenPom)
TV ESPN2

PBP: Mike Tirico

Analyst: Dan Dakich

Right: AJ Hammons will be on the floor. Will Caris LeVert? [Barron]

THE US

Caris LeVert's status had not been determined at the time I wrote this. If he does play, it'll almost certainly be in a limited role.

THE LAST TIME

After Michigan hung tough for the first half of their matchup at Mackey Arena on January 7th, Purdue blew the game open in the second and cruised to an 87-70 win. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman had 25 points on 10/16 FG; the rest of the team went 13/45. Full game recap is here.

THE STAKES

Michigan has one game out of their final six in which they're favored on KenPom (home vs. Northwestern). Making the 77%-safe assumption they take care of that one, the Wolverines still probably need two more wins out of these games to feel comfortable about their NCAA Tournament hopes (KenPom Win Probability as of Thursday evening):

  • Purdue (46%)
  • at Ohio State (42%)
  • at Maryland (15%)
  • at Wisconsin (34%)
  • Iowa (31%)

None of those look like particularly good bets; this game provides M's best hope of stealing a much-needed win for their resume.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss SIBMIHHAT
G 3 PJ Thompson So. 5'10, 188 56 12 No
Low usage, decent outside shooter, great assist:turnover ratio, high FT rate.
G 35 Rapheal Davis Sr. 6'6, 217 59 18 No
Reigning B1G DPOY now hitting open threes. True lockdown guy.
F 12 Vince Edwards So 6'8, 225 66 21 No
Inside-outside threat boasts team's highest assist rate.
F 50 Caleb Swanigan Fr. 6'9, 250 62 24 Yes
Heralded freshman is beast on boards, struggling with shot and turnovers.
C 20 AJ Hammons Sr. 7'0, 250 55 27 Kinda
Living up to his potential: monster rebounder and shot-blocker, shooting 60%.
G 31 Dakota Mathias So. 6'4, 200 46 14 No
Just A Shooter™, hits 36% of his threes.
G 1 Johnny Hill Sr. 6'3, 187 44 17 Very
Strong finisher for a PG, but lost starting gig due to TOs and lack of 3P shot.
C 44 Isaac Haas So. 7'2, 282 37 29 Very
Production and playing time have dropped, but still huge and dangerous.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Purdue has cooled off a bit since the first matchup, after which they moved up to #4 on KenPom only to promptly lose by 14 at Illinois. They've mostly held to form since, losing only at Iowa and Maryland and holding on for an overtime win over MSU on Tuesday, but they've dropped to #17 and the defense doesn't look quite as impenetrable.

The first preview still mostly holds true; I'll quickly cover more recent developments.

AJ Hammons has continued his dominance in Big Ten play, most recently dropping a 19-13-3 stat line with eight blocks against the Spartans. The other seven-footer in the rotation, Isaac Haas, has seen his playing time dwindle, in part because Hammons has been great and in part because Haas hasn't measured up; his rebounding and block rates are falling off—though still by no means bad—and he's making a pedestrian 54% of his two-pointers. Freshman power forward Caleb Swanigan is one of the best rebounders in the conference but he's still finding his way on offense, shooting 46% on twos and 17% on threes in Big Ten games.

Sophomore PJ Thompson has taken control of the point guard position; albeit with a tiny 12% usage, he's now the most efficient offensive player in the country by O-Rating. He's got solid 47/39/82 shooting splits with a high free-throw rate and a great assist-to-turnover ratio. Johnny Hill, a solid slasher and surprisingly good offensive rebounder who struggles with turnovers, has settled into a reserve role.

Rapheal Davis remains the most fearsome perimeter defender in the conference, if not the country, and he continues to make threes that opponents practically dare him to take at around a 40% clip. Vince Edwards is a solid all-around player who can do damage inside and outside the arc. Reserve Dakota Mathias is making 40% of his threes in conference play; perhaps because Mathias' shot has perked up, fellow bench shooter Kendall Stephens has dropped out of the rotation.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.



Four Factors explanation

While Purdue is merely decent at shooting inside and outside the arc, they make up for that with a league-best rebounding rate. Forcing turnovers, something Michigan failed to do well in the first matchup, is key to offsetting their overwhelming size.

The defense hasn't maintained it's national-best pace from early in the season, ranking fifth in the Big Ten, but they still make it difficult to score inside and even harder to get a second chance. Outside of the Maryland game, in which both teams were awful from three-point range, the common thread in Purdue's conference losses is hot outside shooting from their opponent.

THE KEYS

Keep Donnal out of foul trouble. Mark Donnal only played 13 minutes in the first matchup in part because of three fouls, and while he wasn't particularly effective when on the floor (0/4 2P, 2/2 3P), he had five boards (three offensive) in that short span—and no other Michigan center grabbed even a single rebound in the other 27 minutes. If Donnal picks up a quick foul or two and is subject to the John Beilein autobench, Michigan loses their best hope of keeping it competitive inside.

Unleash Rahk. If Purdue plans to negate Duncan Robinson by matching him up with lockdown defender Rapheal Davis, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman needs to provide secondary scoring. Really, anyone who isn't defended by Davis or Hammons/Haas will have to step it up; Rahkman might be the best bet after going off in the first game between these two.

Be decisive on defense. Michigan had the worst of both worlds defensively against Purdue the first time around. They sagged off of spot-up shooters when the ball got into the paint, allowing the Boilermakers to hit 9/18 three-pointers on a series of open looks. They still allowed AJ Hammons to dominate inside with 17 points on 7/10 FG and Purdue, a team that normally struggles with turnovers, coughed the ball up only nine teams. Michigan needs to either stick to shooters and live with the consequences in the paint or get more aggressive going for the ball; every rotation player except PJ Thompson has had some issues holding onto the rock.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Purdue by 1.

In a live-by-the-three, die-by-the-three game for Michigan, Purdue's size is likely to prove too much again.

Comments

zlionsfan

February 12th, 2016 at 5:43 PM ^

but I think a good bit of the rest is from Purdue's performance in conference play. Michigan's 104.0 OEff was the second-highest Purdue had allowed (only Iowa topped that, at 105.6) at the time, and was only the third 100+ effort the Boilers had conceded (the other two were Vermont (in a game where Purdue was at 140.6) and Florida). Since then, they've done worse than the Iowa game four times (including Iowa II) - they won two of them because they lit up Nebraska and because MSU??, but they also got thoroughly outplayed in three other road games.

Some degree of the defensive problems come from slow rotation - Mathias and Cline are most prone to this, but it's affected pretty much everyone other than Davis (even Hammons, sometimes). I think part of this is because Painter still hasn't found a starting-caliber 2 and part of it is because this team isn't a typical Purdue team defensively - they barely force turnovers at all anyway (only Cal - coached by fellow Keady player Cuonzo Martin - and MSU have lower TO% among power-conference teams), so it's not like there are one or two weak links in a strong team.

The main part is that I think they got in the habit of just funneling people to the hoop and letting Hammons, Haas and Swanigan send them away. That worked just fine in non-conference play when the only speed bumps were a young Florida team with a first-year coach and a Pitt team whose resume has been scuffing itself up in conference play ... except against Butler, who doesn't fall for that kind of stuff. In Big 14 play, it's been another story - too many quality teams, too many coaches who see the obvious and attack it.

That's the other piece. Painter's approach to halftime adjustments has been ... wanting. The in-state joke is that we've been laughing at IU fans for years because they (used to) think Crean is a great coach when he's basically a great recruiter who can't spell coach if you give him the vowels and consonants, but now it seems there may be more than one coach in the state like that, except Painter doesn't always recruit well either. The Iowa game in Mackey was particularly frustrating, because the Boilers played a first half that was far better than anything they'd done to that point ... and when Iowa came out in the second half and switched things up, Painter couldn't or wouldn't adjust.

Beilein seemed to take notes from that game, trying a halfhearted trap a few times because of how effective Iowa was at it (I mean, putting Robinson at midcourt caused Purdue's points to pick up their dribble, and it's not like he's a defensive terror), but unfortunately for Michigan, injuries mean his ability to adjust is limited. I suspect the game in January would have been different if he'd had more bodies regardless of quality, and in Crisler, he'd have that plus the crowd.

Purdue is just 2-3 in Tier A games in conference play, with the wins being MSU Tuesday and Wisconsin back in December when the Badgers were losing every Tier A game they played. (Wisconsin's only won one of those themselves: home to Michigan State.) Saturday is the third of a seven-game stretch that features six Tier A games for Purdue. If there's anyone on the Purdue side of things who feels comfortable with that 1-point spread, even if LeVert is out, I haven't spoken to them.

Fenrir the Righteous

February 12th, 2016 at 4:55 PM ^

To me, A.J. Hammons is the quintessential "how is this guy still in college? I feel like I've been watching him for 10 years" guy. Nice to see him playing well, but a dominant big man, not to mention multiple good front court players, signals danger/pain for us this year.

SagNasty

February 12th, 2016 at 5:14 PM ^

If Michigan fails to make the ncaa tournament I have to say this season would be considered a huge failure. I understand that they have lost two seniors to injury, but I just cant see missing the tourney after starting league play at 7-2.




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SFBlue

February 12th, 2016 at 8:11 PM ^

The 7-2 conference start (which is misleadingly good) won't be what disappoints me. It will be that somehow this assemblage of talent didn't gel. Some of it was bad luck (Levert's injury, Spike's career ending early). But it has also been that promising guys haven't panned out. Zak Irvin is not much better now than he was as a Freshman, and playing with Walton hasn't made him better. Chatman and MAAR remain raw. And Doyle and Donnal inconsistent.

Without Duncan Robinson emerging this is a fringe NIT team.

This may sound unfair to Walton, but what is missing the most is leadership. There is not a Rose, Rice, Rumeal, Morris, Novak, Burke, "get the fuck off my court"  emotional type. 

True Blue Grit

February 13th, 2016 at 7:23 AM ^

He's actually been a big bright spot.  He has turned into the most reliable scorer off the bench and has helped take the ballhandling load off Walton with Spike being out.   Yes though, guys like Wilson, Chatman, Irvin, and Doyle have either not gotten better or regressed.  Irvin has his good games here snd there but he's way more inconsistent than someone of his talent and experience should be.

Preacher Mike

February 13th, 2016 at 12:37 PM ^

Irvin is miles better than he was as a freshman, and the numbers show it. Plus as a freshman he had a much more balanced team to play on so he was able to be shine then as a freshman in a way he wouldn't have if he were a freshman on the current team. This is a one dimensional team which makes it very easy to defend and which takes away the opportunities for Irvin to do more of the things he could do on a better balanced team.

Perkis-Size Me

February 12th, 2016 at 9:58 PM ^

Maryland win notwithstanding, that 7-2 start is pretty misleading.

Wins against the likes of Rutgers, Penn State, Nebraska and Minnesota are really not all that impressive.

We had chances to establish ourselves against marquee opponents this year and we completely shat the bed almost every time.




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markjcooper

February 12th, 2016 at 9:53 PM ^

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urbanachiever

February 13th, 2016 at 1:43 AM ^

Would be interesting to see what Michigan's distribution around the mean expected Kenpom outcomes is. I would expect that a "live by the three die by the three" team would have large variance - few close losses and close wins and thus more large losses/wins than most teams.

I feel like a loss by one tomorrow is more likely than it is for the rest of the teams that Kenpom predicts to lose by one

LV Sports Bettor

February 13th, 2016 at 12:27 PM ^

I really felt this would be their "homerun" game. Beilein at home getting points since he's been at Michigan has been outstanding going 13-5 against the spread (excluding his 1st year at UM). It just looks like a really good spot here for the Wolverines IMO. I know about the Purdue edge inside but looking a little closer this caused me to pass:



Michigan has played 5 games this year against teams who are ranked in the top 5% in CBB in total rebounding percentage (rebounding rate) and in those 5 games they've went 0-5 overall straight-up losing by an average of 17 points per game with each loss by 13 points or more. 



Passing on betting the game but still think deep down think they've got a decent shot here in this one. Go Blue!!!







 

Preacher Mike

February 13th, 2016 at 12:30 PM ^

What the FUCK is wrong with LaVert??

I think Beilein is hiding the injury because if people knew what it really was it would hurt LaVert's NBA prospects. The problem is that at this point hiding the injury is probably hurting his pro chances just as much a revealing it, if not more so. Plus, by not playing LaVert's stock just keeps dropping anyway.

What pro program is going ot draft an injury prone prospect who takes a ridiculous amount of time ot heal? LaVert can't make it through 20 games of a 35 game season. How in the world will he survive an 82 game season plus playoffs in the NBA?

Dailysportseditor

February 13th, 2016 at 1:40 PM ^

It's astonishing the amount of criticism, explicit and implied, that Coach Beilin and Caris LeVert are receiving.  LeVert's well-known injury history should be enough reason to be ultra-cautious. If I were LeVert's dad, I wouldn't want him playing until after (1) his injury was completely healed and (2) he was in complete playing condition. If he plays today I would hope Beilen puts a strict limit on his minutes.  A fatigued player is more likely to reinjure himself.

Preacher Mike

February 13th, 2016 at 1:52 PM ^

I just would like to know what the injury is. It seems silly to be hiding that at this point. The mystery only makes it all seem much worse than it likely is. It is not helping LaVert to hide the nature of his problem.

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