THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Michigan won the first leg with ease. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE US

Caris LeVert is "unlikely" to return to the court tomorrow, though John Beilein said this afternoon that he's been doing more in practice.

Also of note from Beilein's presser today: he said either DJ Wilson or Kam Chatman needs to step up so the main members of the rotation can get more rest.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Penn State has undergone some lineup changes since they visited Crisler a few weeks back. Sophomore Julian Moore took the starting center job from senior Jordan Dickerson, starting guard Josh Reaves is out with mono, and two more starters—including PSU's top guard—are banged up:

Pat Chambers said Shep Garner (ankle) has not been practicing; will be game-time decision Sat. vs. Mich. Payton Banks dealing w/back injury.

— Jeff Rice (@JeffRice247) January 28, 2016

Garner's absense would be significant; not only is he their lead guard, but he plays a whopping 86% of the team's minutes and PSU is already thin in the backcourt.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Modified from the last PSU game preview.

Penn State's top dog is forward Brandon Taylor, who takes nearly 30% of the team's shots when he's on the floor, and while he's not deadly he's relatively effective at 47% shooting inside the arc and 35% from three. Taylor draws just under six fouls per game and makes 72% of his free throws. He'll draw Zak Irvin in a matchup of undersized fours that can stuff the stat sheet.

Sophomore Shep Garner is the nominal point guard on a team that doesn't have anyone who truly fits the profile. Garner's had a tough time finding his shot in Big Ten play; while he's at 82% from the line with a solid FT rate, he's making 40% of his twos and 26% of his threes. With Reaves out and Garner questionable, freshman Isaiah Washington, who's 8/35 from the field this season, might get a much larger share of the minutes than normal.

Sophomore wing Payton Banks does solid work on the boards and can finish inside the arc, but he's hoisting a lot of threes that aren't going in (20/74 3P), and now he's dealing with a back issue. Manning the middle is 6'10" sophomore Julian Moore, who's started the last three games over seven-footer Jordan Dickerson, one of the nation's best shot-blockers and a force on the offensive glass. Moore is fourth in the conference in defensive rebounding; otherwise his numbers don't match up with Dickerson's.

THE RESUME

Michigan thumped PSU by 23 at Crisler in the first meeting of these teams. Since then, the Nittany Lions have gone 2-4 in Big Ten games with wins over Minnesota and Northwestern. They gave Wisconsin a game at home, but were blown out by MSU, Purdue, and Ohio State.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only numbers.

Four Factors explanation

The PSU offense relied on second chances and minimizing turnovers to cover for sub-par shooting in non-conference play; their efficiency has been further hampered now that they're tenth in the conference in turnover rate, though they still get to the line quite often. Their shooting remains bad, especially from three, where they languishing under 30% in conference games.

The Nittany Lions force an average number of turnovers and are 11th in the B1G in the other three main defensive categories. They've been lit up from the outside; B1G opponents are hitting 39% of their threes.

THE KEYS

Make them earn it. Penn State isn't a good shooting team, so they lean hard on their free-throw shooting, getting 24% of their points at the line—more than any other Big Ten team. Michigan, of course, is notoriously foul-averse under Beilein, and outside of Brandon Taylor (6/6 FT) they did a good job in the first matchup of forcing PSU to make shots from the field. With the way this team shoots, there's no reason to give them freebies.

Run that high screen. I had this as a key the last time around and Mark Donnal scored 16 points on 7/10 FG while Zak Irvin tallied seven assists. So, yeah, do that again.

Find that last rotation guy. If Beilein is serious about getting Wilson or Chatman more minutes to save the legs of the rest of the rotation, this is the game to do it with Indiana and MSU looming next week. Wilson looks closer to being able to make a positive contribution; he's slowly but surely picking up how to play more like a big man. If he's capable of giving Irvin a breather at the four without too much of a dropoff, that'd be huge for this team. 

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 7.

The Wolverines manhandled PSU in their first meeting and the Nittany Lions are less healthy now than they were then. If Garner can't go, this should be a gimme game, and hopefully one in which Beilein can safely tinker with the rotation.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview.