Preview: Ohio State 2013 Comment Count

Brian

ben-affleck-batman-fun-reactions-matt-damon-robin-tumblr[1]Essentials

 
WHAT Michigan vs Ohio State
WHERE Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN Noon Eastern
November 30th, 2013
THE LINE Ohio State -17
TELEVISION ABC
WEATHER partly cloudy, mid-30s
0% chance of rain
10 mph winds

Overview

panic

Run Offense vs Ohio State

sports_shazierONLINEFEATURE-694x360[1]

Ryan Shazier got better.

The Northwestern blip was just that: a blip, as Michigan's offense retreated back into its shell against Iowa. Thanks to buckets of Iowa turnovers this staked Michigan to a lead until late, but this was back to the pain factory. It was probably worse than usual, actually, as Gardner only suffered one sack. Take that out and Michigan rushed for 74 yards on 28 carries, a thrilling 2.6 yards an attempt.

This is still forward, I guess, and therefore represents progress. The kind of progress last experienced in the Dark Ages, but progress nonetheless.

This is too depressing to contemplate for very long. Michigan again went with a bunch of inside zone, whereupon Iowa linebackers fired into the gaps over and over again like Notre Dame did. Michigan has no idea how to deal with that other than "execute better"; they have no way to back those guys off; they have a bunch of play action on which the fact that the linebackers run literally to the line of scrimmage before going "oh" and backing into short zones is okay for the defense.

The unit they're going up against is not quite a vintage OSU outfit; it is still plenty good enough to see Michigan to another grunting performance under 100 net yards. Once you remove sacks, Ohio State's run offense is in a tier below Michigan State's face-crushing unit with Wisconsin and Michigan; they're giving up just under 4 yards a carry.

The existence of a healthy, clueful Ryan Shazier is particularly bad for Michigan. Two years ago he was a limping freshman who showed up in the hole against Denard Robinson and ended up left in the dust. This year he's nearing OSU records for TFLs against the worst team in the country at giving them up. His strengths—slashing into the backfield as soon as he reads run foremost amongst them—line up perfectly with Michigan's weaknesses.

The line is a slightly better matchup than it was last year with Jonathan Hankins in the NFL. They have not replaced him with a similar space-eater. Michael Bennett, their best DT, is 285. Unfortunately, he's a Jibreel Black++ type player with 10 TFLs and 5.5 sacks to his name. But that's another depressing section. Against the run he will be more moveable. Not that it's going to matter.

Key Matchup: Denard Robinson versus NCAA Eligibility Rules

[Hit THE JUMP for just don't hit the jump]

Pass Offense vs Ohio State

SPT-OSU29phh[1]

Hide yo kids, hide yo quarterback. The aforementioned Bennett is a problem against the weak interior of Michigan's line. Weak. I need a new word here that means WEAAAAAAAK; it doesn't appear one is coming.

Ohio State's acquired 36 sacks this year from a variety of organic and blitzing sources. Bennett has his; sophomore Noah Spence has 7.5; freshman Joey Bosa has 5. Various other linemen suck up almost all of the rest, leaving just Shazier's 5.5 and Curtis Grant's 2.5. OSU will send the occasional linebacker but is mostly content to drop back in coverage and see if one of their three effective rushers can get to the passer.

That is a terrible omen for Michigan. OSU will probably fling Shazier at Gardner and drop six plenty, which gives them 3 or 4 plausible avenues to Gardner on any given play. Iowa's single sack comes after Michigan giving up 19 in three weeks and is not likely to last.

When not getting buried under a wall of meat, Gardner will try to hit Gallon and Funchess, and basically only Gallon and Funchess. This will probably not go that well as OSU drops into the routes Michigan can run, which are few, and Gardner makes the kind of decisions you make when you are expecting a 300-pound ferret to burst into your chest at any moment.

Key matchup: Devin Gardner's Sternum versus Shattering Into A Thousand Pieces

Run Defense vs Ohio State

carlos-hyde-snaps1[1]

best case scenario

Foremost amongst the thousand depressing things about this game is Ohio State's superlative ability to manball its opponents. 242 pound Carlos Hyde has been tackled for loss this year.

Once.

Hyde is averaging 7.7 yards a carry despite not playing in OSU's first three walkovers and getting just five carries in OSU's equivalent of the Delaware State game, a grisly 76-0 beating of Florida A&M. He's done this without many distorting long runs. He had a 55 yarder against Illinois, but it's not like his stats are a Carlos Brown combination of 80 yarders and nothing.

But you knew that already. The #1 thing on Chris Borland's All-America highlight is a goal line stick of Hyde that anyone who saw live had a internal monologue that went "touchdown… OHHHHH NO WAY," because people do not stick Carlos Hyde. It just does not happen. They hit him and at best Hyde slides off to the side with his legs churning and picks up 2 YAC. Combine that with Braxton Miller and an offense that will happily screen you to death if you try to load the box and you get a lot of situations in which the best case non-Borland scenario when you try to tackle Hyde one on one happens five yards downfield.

Right: Miller. He's bounced in and out of the lineup with injury but has still rolled up 738 yards at 6.4 a pop without even bothering to remove sacks. You have seen him play against Michigan twice; you know the game-changing ability his legs bring. He's improved as a passer, as well. Between Miller and Keny Guiton, OSU QBs are over 1,000 yards on the season at 7.3 yards an attempt, without even bothering to remove sacks.

Finally, Ohio State has a three-headed scatback that is over 1,000 yards itself. Jordan Hall is the primary guy; freshmen Ezekiel Elliot and Dontre Wilson chip in. All are RB/slot hybrids to some degree, with Wilson the most slot-like and Elliot the most tailback-like; these guys flit out of the backfield to grab screens, take outside runs, sometimes just take inside runs, and are preferred in OSU's option game to Hyde for obvious reasons. Collectively they're averaging 7.4 yards an attempt.

As a team Ohio State has nearly 3500 rushing yards at nearly 7 yards a carry and 36 touchdowns. But it won't work in the Big Ten.

Michigan's run defense is pretty good and they have an edge weapon or two (read: Jake Ryan) that can allow Michigan to be more aggressive in the box without giving up a ton of easy edge stuff. It's not going to be enough. This is an A+ offense against a B+ defense, and to some extent they're going to get exposed.

Key Matchup: Brian's Head versus Mounting Internal Pressure. This is my worst nightmare as a fan. Michigan is going to watch this death machine rushing offense beat them by using spread concepts with huge animated question marks over their heads, and they'll ignore that as they go forward so they can go back to the glory days where the incredibly loaded 1999 offense rushed for 3.2 yards a carry.

Pass Defense vs Ohio State

braxton-miller[1]

The structure of the offense and Miller's continual improvement have made this another area to consider with a jaundiced eye. Miller and Guiton combine to average 68% completion rate and 7.8 yards an attempt; Miller has 19 touchdowns against four interceptions; Guiton has 14 touchdowns against two interceptions.

OSU only passes about 38% of the time because of the previous section, and a large chunk of those throws are wide receiver screens, so maybe 30% of the time an Ohio State quarterback will survey the field, looking for someone downfield. This results in the kinds of problems you'd expect: zero pass rush as a run-focused DL is caught off guard and is trying to contain Miller at all costs (13 sacks allowed on the year); guys running open as linebackers and safeties suck up; cornerbacks left on an island by Miller demanding safety attention.

Miller is still not Dan Marino, but it hardly matters in an offense that rarely finds itself in true passing situations—when you average seven yards a carry, third and seven is a standard down and how often are you even in third and seven?—and uses Miller's assets to open up great cavernous holes for him to explore with buckets of time.

OSU's WRs are not great. Devin Smith is probably their best; he makes spectacular catches and is their best downfield threat. Philly Brown is the guy with the most catches; often those are of a screen nature. They do throw to the tight ends, with Jeff Heuerman and Nick Vannett combining for 28 receptions; three-headed scatback has 36 receptions itself. Entertainingly mouthy Evan Spencer is a short-yardage third WR.

Michigan's held up pretty well here this year—actually that's an understatement when they have almost as many interceptions as they've ceded passing touchdowns. This is a good secondary, especially when they're not futzing with the safeties for no reason. Michigan will bring Gordon into the box, leave Ryan on the field over the slot, and try to live with Countess and Taylor in tight-ish coverage that may leave them exposed deep. But it might not.

This will be a sidelight to the run game, one on which Miller has plenty of time when Michigan isn't going for all-out blitzes on third downs. It'll be up to the secondary to cover long enough for Miller to engage terrifying scramble mode, and then Michigan will have to contain that.

Key Matchup: Mattison dialing up pressures that might confuse Miller on third and longs, which will occasionally happen?

Special Teams

Drew Basil has attempted all of nine field goals on the year against 66 extra points. I'm cold. I'm so cold. Aussie punter Cameron Johnston is averaging 44 yards a kick, and has only allowed six returns on his 34 attempts, though one of those was returned for a touchdown. Philly Brown is their punt returner; he is meh. Kickoff returns are almost irrelevant but Ohio State is pretty good at both phases.

Key Matchup: AHHHHHH YOU put it through the uprights to make the final score look a tiny bit better

Intangibles

Sad-Cat[1]

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

  • The xenomorph Max Bullough implanted in Gardner's chest finally bursts through on a third and thirteen, grabs the ball, and throws it directly into Noah Spence's helmet. Gardner is then tackled by all eleven Ohio State players. Eventually, Spence wanders into the endzone… FOR AN OFFENSIVE SCORE BECAUSE EVERYONE'S CHASING THE XENOMORPH… that makes the final 76-7.
  • You perceive one football program that has successfully modernized itself without internal strife, starting with their seemingly hidebound dinosaur coach, and one program that holds up 3.2 yards a carry with four NFL offensive linemen, Tom Brady, David Terrell, Anthony Thomas, and Marquise Walker as the pinnacle of football.
  • You are going to the game.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

  • Braxton Miller gets hurt… actually, no, that won't work.
  • Braxton Miller and Kenny Guiton get hurt, leaving Cardale Jones in to not play school? No, that probably won't work either.
  • It's the only thing you can do to prevent yourself from crying.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for They Are Good, +1 for We Are Not, +1 for Showing Manball Proponents What Manball Really Is, +1 for Michigan OL versus OSU DL Matchup Is Puppy Versus Woodchipper, +1 for WE GON DIE)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +5 for Obvious)

Loss will cause me to... thank God it's over.

Win will cause me to... DIV BY ZERO ERROR.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Michigan wins! At losing.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

  • 35,000 Ohio State fans.
  • A giant John Flansburgh rips off one of the press boxes and starts playing "She Was A Hotel Detective" at maximum volume level. The game is cancelled midway through the third quarter. A John Flansburgh statue is installed, commemorating his valiant effort.
  • Urban goes for two.
  • Ohio State, 39-0

Comments

ziggolfer

November 29th, 2013 at 1:39 PM ^

Everything I read today was mature and realistic. Thank you 

What should I do? Lebron James here. 

Should I go sit with my father because my mom is too cold to go to the game?

Should I sit with my one friend because the GA student section system prevents my 30 or so graduate school friends from sitting together? 

Or should I stay in the library learn about emerging viruses in the world, hope to become a better doctor someday, and pray the football program folds so my school puts more money into everything else? 

Last one was sarcastic. Enjoy the game this week folks don't be too negative; be happy you can watch a game on TV. 

PeteM

November 29th, 2013 at 1:47 PM ^

That said -- Ohio State beat Iowa and Northwestern by just 10 and gave up 35 to Illinois. If they have a meh game and Devin plays well we'll score.

CompleteLunacy

November 29th, 2013 at 5:59 PM ^

Michigan has one loss at home under Hoke.



In 3 years, only Alabama and MSU have blown M out....Michigan had a chance to win every other time.



OSU didn't do much last year against our defense.



This game is at home.



Michigan has nothing to lose. OSU has everything to lose.



Look, things aren't looking good for tomorrow, but you're not looking hard enough if you think there are literally no signs of optimism. The whine fest that has become this website is utterly absurd.

Shop Smart Sho…

November 29th, 2013 at 6:20 PM ^

In the last 3 years the B1G has been nearly devoid of good offenses, so is it surprising that Michigan hasn't been blown out?  

In the last 3 years Michigan has had one of the single best defensive coordinators in the B1G, so is it surprising that Michigan hasn't been blown out?

Michigan is about to play a game against one of the best teams in the country.  They have a great offense and an average defense.  They are taught from their first day in the that program that beating Michigan is the best possible thing they can do while in college.  They need to put up style points for any vain hope at making it to the MNC game.  Their coach is a douche.  

Sounds like a lot more reasons to believe that there will be a blow out.

kevin holt

November 29th, 2013 at 2:01 PM ^

If we got 3.2 yards a carry, then had a decent passing attack, that would actually not be that terrible. I'm not that well-versed in football, but if you run three times for a little over 3 yards, that's at least close to a first down if not past one, and with a decent passing game would be a pretty great offense. Add to that an A+ defense and you have a championship team.

But the future though.

Shop Smart Sho…

November 29th, 2013 at 2:15 PM ^

So you think a below-average running offense and a decent passing game makes for a pretty great offense?  That might be an offense that is good enough for the team to finish 2nd or 3rd in the B1G with an occasional 1st place.  Of course, that 1st place would mean we would be probably be playing teams with great defenses who would eviscerate what would be a predictable offense.  Sorta sounds like late era Carr teams to me.  No thanks.

The team doesn't need to run an up-tempo spread and shred offense like Oregon, but to be nationally competitive they aren't going to be able to copy the Alabama offense either.  They won't be able to continually have experience, upper-class, NFL level talent each year.  To that end, they need an offense that intelligently takes advantage of defensive shortcomings in opponents.  Telegraphing playcalls by alignment and hoping to out-execute everyone simply won't work anymore.

DelhiGoBlue

November 29th, 2013 at 2:12 PM ^

To be sure things look grim, but if team 134 takes the field it has a chance to win.  If you believe otherwise, why don't you spend your time pleading with Brandon to issue a forfeit rather than allowing the players suffer possible injury during an inevitable loss?

gwkrlghl

November 29th, 2013 at 2:23 PM ^

But everything I've seen this year and the recent history of this rivalry has many of us rightfuly expecting a painful afternoon tomorrow.

It's going to take a miracle of a game to win and with an offense attempting to become as completely inept as the 2008 offense, we're probably going to be fortunate to score 14 pts on offense

BradP

November 29th, 2013 at 2:38 PM ^

I don't think there has been one since 1961 where it seemed to be so lopsided.

 

For me, I think the offense manages one good drive where Borges pulls out a wrinkle that works. OSU makes defensive adjustments and the offense sputters.

The defense keeps it respectable in the first half, but the interior starts to get beat up pretty bad, and the secondary starts to get desperate - leading to multiple breakdowns in the second half.

17-10 at half, 38-13 Final.

UMForLife

November 29th, 2013 at 2:17 PM ^

They are not scoring that much. At least I wish they won't. Can we get a foot of snow and nobody scores and The Game ends 3-0 in OT.

That is the only possible way we have a chance to win.

Do we know if DG is even playing?

Blue X2

November 29th, 2013 at 2:18 PM ^

is if OSU is so overconfident they don't execute well and sputter on offense and we get some early breaks and momentum that causes the offense to awake from a 6 week funk.  I do not see either of these things happening, but stranger things have happened.  After all, we lost to App State.

So in summary, let's be App State and hope Ohio does not "show up".

My guess is that by series number 2 in the first quarter we will know the outcome.

Here's to 10% odds of winning.

dnatty

November 29th, 2013 at 2:18 PM ^

I'm not sure anything on offenses is going to work but I should like to see Michigan run a two minute offense right off the bat. Short routes, screens, quick hitting runs, qb sneak on first down if it's there . Anything to get positive yards on first down without the risk of of huge losses. Put Devin in shotgun where he doesn't have to drop back and set his feet. When they do throw down field either throw it away or arm punt it. If we win the toss go on defense first and hope for the defense to make a big play. At the very least the defense will get to rest at halftime thru however long our second half offensive possession lasts.
.

UMForLife

November 29th, 2013 at 2:22 PM ^

Man it is depressing reading all the comments. We are fighting about whether we will even score. That is pathetic. I just read what OHIO Governor was saying in his twitter. It seems like they have more confidence and respect us than we do. It doesn't sound like they are taking it lightly. Hope our team won't. At least put up a fight and take it to the last game.

I am a downer too, but have a slim of hope.

Go Blue!

tybert

November 29th, 2013 at 2:25 PM ^

Borges has been successful in early drives in most games, until D adjusts and holds us to 3. I suspect 52-17, with a garbage score late led by Morris.