THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Ohio State, in a trolling maneuver for which I can only show grudging respect, is retiring Evan Turner's number tonight. With that in mind, let's remember the best of times. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE US

Caris LeVert is back! Well, sort of. He played 11 minutes, all in the first half, against Purdue on Saturday before gassing out, and whether due to lingering effects of his injury or being out of game shape (or both) he looked a step slow when he was out there.

As such, it's not a huge surprise to see that he's still a game-time decision:

LeVert, speaking with local reporters for the first time since the injury, said Monday that he will continue to be a "game-time decision" moving forward — basing his availability on how he feels through pregame warmups — and that he continues to progress from the injury.

"Pain is still going to be his guide," coach John Beilein said. "If he's feeling any soreness anywhere in his body, we'll pull him out and wait. It's important that he takes his time in getting back to full strength."

LeVert acknowledged the obvious—he's not 100%—and said he hopes to be at full strength by the end of the season. If he plays tonight, he'll be limited again, and almost certainly still coming in off the bench.

THE STAKES

Covered in detail yesterday. A victory would come close to locking up an NCAA bid while also keeping Michigan in fourth in the Big Ten. Moving up in the conference this week looks unlikely with Maryland and Indiana, both a game in front of Michigan, taking on Minnesota and Nebraska in their respective upcoming games.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

This year the Buckeyes are just sort of there. They have a decent assemblage of talent but nobody who looks like a star—D'Angelo Russell is missed—and they've compiled an 8-5 Big Ten record by beating the teams they should (8-0 vs. the bottom half of the conference) and losing to better squads (0-5 against Indiana, Maryland [x2], Purdue, and Wisconsin).

Their leading scorer is Jae'Sean Tate, who's 6'4" but plays like a power forward. While he remains an excellent offensive rebounder, his two-point shooting has dipped from 63% last year to 55% this year without Russell commanding so much attention; he has added the threat of an occasional three-pointer.

Wings Marc Loving and Keita Bates-Diop have both been inconsistent players while carrying a decent chunk of the scoring load. Loving is shooting just 40% on twos and 30% on threes in conference play, relying on a high free-throw rate to keep his scoring up. Bates-Diop doesn't get to the line as much but is a more effective shooter (51/34/80 splits in B1G play) and he also provides solid rebounding and shot-blocking. Sixth man Kam Williams plays close to starter-level minutes and is by far the team's best outside shooting threat; he leads the conference with a 54% mark from beyond the arc in Big Ten play.

Nominal point guard JaQuan Lyle came in as a top-50 prospect with a ton of hype that he's still working to fulfill. At 6'5", 200, Lyle isn't the most natural point, and while he's dishing out a little under five assists per game, he's also turning the ball over on nearly a quarter of his possessions. Lyle can get to the rim and finish or draw contact, but his outside shot (26% 3P) is a work-in-progress. He's lost a handful of starts to 5'9" freshman AJ Harris, who's worse in every major statistical category and, again, is a 5'9" freshman.

Trevor Thompson and Daniel Giddins provide two big bodies at center who can rebound and block shots; neither is a major threat as a post scorer, with Thompson (52% 2P in Big Ten games) faring better than Giddins (41%) in that regard. Both are quite foul-prone, which on occasion forces the Buckeyes to play small-ball.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.

Four Factors explanation

Aside from getting to the line, the Buckeyes are below-average in pretty much every major offensive category. They're especially bad at two-pointers (47%, 12th in B1G) and free throws (66%, 13th); they're marginally better at threes (35%, 8th) but they don't attempt many. Their offense ranks just ninth in the conference in efficiency.

The defense, on the other hand, is above-average in most aspects—fourth in the Big Ten against both two- and three-pointers and second in blocks—but they force few turnovers and commit a few too many fouls, so they're right in the middle of the pack at seventh in the B1G in defensive efficiency.

THE KEYS

Keep Lyle on the perimeter. JaQuan Lyle can be very effective when teams allow him to get to the basket—he went off for 27 in the loss to Wisconsin, making 8/13 twos—but when that doesn't happen he tends to disappear; in the four games prior to Wisconsin, he went a combined 0/6 from two and scored a total of 11 points with seven assists and 12 turnovers. If Derrick Walton stays in front of Lyle, he can shut him down.

Box out. OSU isn't much of a shooting team but they can generate second chances with their size across the board. Whoever matches up with Jae'Sean Tate—presumably Zak Irvin—will have their hands full on the boards, and the bigs will have to play their part too; the one way OSU's centers can really make a significant impact on offense is if they're hauling in rebounds. If the Buckeyes are one-and-out, they're not overly likely to make that one.

Pick spots (and pockets). The Buckeye bigs have a tendency to cough up the rock when they have it, and the point guards have really struggled to hang onto the ball. Michigan turned the game around against Purdue in large part because of timely double-teams that forced turnovers and led to easier offense on the other end; OSU doesn't run the ball through the post nearly as much, but Michigan could still replicate that performance by keeping a close eye on passing lanes and turning the pressure up on OSU's more turnover-prone players.

THE MOMENT OF ZEN

Might want to keep this handy when ESPN inevitably shows That Thing Evan Turner Did.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Ohio State by 2.

I actually like this matchup for Michigan quite a bit, but road wins are hard to come by and the Wolverines have had trouble containing slashing lead guards like Lyle. This one may come down to which shooter—Kam Williams or Duncan Robinson—gives his team a bigger lift.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Alex on M's two signature wins thus far.