Brian - Quick correction the game is on ESPN not ABC.
things go poorly
Other stuff: Festivities you won't go to because you have a tailgate. Soccer doubleheader tonight, though: men at 5, women at 7:30. The MZone provides Know Your Foe. BWS previews the Irish. One Foot Down reviews the Michigan offense. Too little data so they make big, but it's worthwhile.
|WHAT||Michigan vs Notre Dame|
|WHERE||Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI|
September 10th 2011
|THE LINE||Notre Dame -3|
|TELEVISION||National on ESPN|
|WEATHER||High sixties dropping to low sixties; 40% chance of rain; NO SUN!!!!|
|MY AWESOME KELLY NICKNAME||Zach De La Coacha|
This remains an enigma after an abbreviated, well-in-hand game against a MAC opponent. Michigan mixed a bunch of different formations and blocking schemes—minus the stretch—en route to 7.3 YPC.
What they'll do when a rivalry game is on the line bears little relation to what they were running out with a two-score-or-better lead against Western Michigan. But if I had to guess, and I do, it will look more like Michigan's first possession than the rest of the game. When they got the ball for the first time they were down a touchdown and there was no guarantee the defense wasn't still a flaming tire fire.
On that drive Michigan operated exclusively from the shotgun and ran Robinson four times. When they were nervous, they went back to the well. In a huge, meme-establishing matchup for Brady Hoke's career he might as well run those power plays with 1) his best running back, 2) an extra blocker, and 3) the possibility of QB Draw Oh Noes.
In addition to a wide array of QB power, look for the zone read. Michigan ran it to good success late and Notre Dame was irresponsible on the zone read against USF. Three times in the first half they let the outside guy in the zone read break contain. Once it was an inverted veer on which both the give and take would have picked up eight or so. While USF's overall stats were bleah, they moved the ball fairly well in the first half despite having absolutely no hope of completing a pass longer than zero yards. In the second half they were content to run the ball into stacked lines.
[SIDE NOTE: One reason the zone read was successful may have been a USF tweak to it: running it out of the pistol. Michigan's current setup isn't far off. After the QB steps forward, he's almost at pistol depth. The difference is the positioning of the running back. In the pistol he gives nothing away because he can head to either side of the QB. In the traditional shotgun the zone read is on one side or the other. You can flip this assumption with speed options and other plays that make the optioned-off guy a playside defender, but Michigan hasn't done this and the pistol seems like a cheap way to sow uncertainty in the defense. I don't expect to see it against ND, or ever, since Borges is focused on other things.]
As for the rest of Notre Dame's run defense, it remains largely the same. They've got a bad situation at ILB next to Te'o, where Carlo Calabrese lost his job to Dan Fox… and then Fox was pulled for Calabrese midway through the USF game. The outside linebackers seem a bit confused. The ends are good, though—I can see Lewan handling Ethan Johnson but on the other side of the line Michigan might want to option off Kapron Lewis-Moore. That's a matchup that does not favor Huyge. Michigan will remain left-sided.
I hesitate to offer much in the way of predictions given the uncertainty here—I think Michigan will struggle to move the ball on the ground from under center, but there are opportunities to get a defense that seemed vulnerable to confusion last week out of position.
Key Matchup: Molk/Omameh/Barnum against NTs Cwynar and Nix. If Michigan is going to run power they're going to have to blow the NT off the ball in the 3-4. That will be much easier when the relatively slight Cwynar (6'4", 285) is in. Nix is a 340 pound hambeast who, while only a redshirt freshman, may be able to stand up to double teams.
But can he deal with Molk reaching him? I'll be watching ND's substitution on the nose and how Michigan reacts to it. I'm hoping they make Nix move laterally while pounding Cwynar.
This is also almost totally unknown. BJ Daniels is awful. In the first half when USF racked up 16 of their 23 points, Daniels completed zero (0!) passes past the LOS. The only thing we can take from the USF game is that Notre Dame has trouble defending bubble screens. The Bulls consistently racked up 5-10 yards despite the wholesale suck of Daniels. Chalk up some free yards on the outside.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame's late-season defensive surge came against Utah, Army, and the backup quarterbacks at USC and Miami. The former was passing in a driving rain storm; the latter had 282 yards on 33 attempts and a passer efficiency rating of 152.
What data we have on Notre Dame's pass defense leans towards not so good, but it's mostly "ask again later." Denard Robinson got thirteen dodgy attempts against Western. A lot of different things are within the realm of possibility.
These are basically the same teams as last year, when Denard went 24 of 40 for 244 yards and a touchdown, but extrapolating from that is dangerous. Michigan debuted QB Draw Oh Noes for a 30 yard touchdown, got something similar for another seam throw down the sidelines to Odoms, could have had a couple more to Roundtree, etc. Michigan's snag package was new, too. All the things Denard could do were new. Not so much anymore. He'll will have to do new things against a veteran secondary. Every starter is a senior. They remember what happened to them last year.
Meanwhile, Michigan has a new offensive coordinator with a totally different passing game that he has already installed. We did see a QB Oh Noes or two against Western and a lot of familiar things, though, and it's not like Borges can't dial up a high-low read of a cornerback. The issue will not be slants and flares and various underneath passes but the mid-level stuff and beyond, particularly getting the same results out of Denard without getting him killed or asking him to fit it in a tiny window.
So who knows?
Key Matchup: Borges vs Acquisition Of The Big Easy Play. Even assuming that Denard just had an off day and is about as accurate as he was last year, Michigan's not going to go up and down the field just based on his arm. The omnipresent threat of the run and the lack of safeties that implies will be critical. I think Borges knows this and will take advantage, but to do that he's got to force those safeties into the box with Denard's feet, or at least the zone read.
Against USF, Notre Dame's rushing offense looked a lot like Michigan's might over the course of the season. They operated from the shotgun and ran tons of power from it. They didn't use the quarterback on these things, but they still go good yardage. Starting tailback Cierre Wood is a talent. I've hardly seen Toussaint run so this might sound dumb, but the two backs are carbon copies: fast, agile, bouncy, with an inside edge. Wood might be a bit more athletic but it's hard to tell given the limited evidence available.
Wood averaged 5 YPC on the day. While he was less than explosive against a USF team that lost three starters off its line, the Bulls were a solid defensive team last year and project to be one again. Backup power back Jonas Gray did 4.3 but also lost a back-breaking fumble that was returned 98 yards for a touchdown; he's a guy who just runs straight ahead and gets what he can. Wood is the threat.
Notre Dame's line is powerful—virtually every guy on it was recruited by Michigan. On short yardage their ability to cave in the center of the USF line was impressive. Often backs had to do little other than run up the backs of their offensive linemen to pick up a good gain. When Notre Dame pulls they often pull two linemen because center Braxton Cave is agile enough to get outside. He and a backside tackle will frequently show up at the point of attack—don't think Notre Dame can't put MANBALL yards on your face because there isn't an H-back on the field.
As for Michigan, they brought on a 220 pound true freshman to play DE in their passing spread and got burned for it. Other than that the Broncos didn't pick up much. At night in temperate conditions expect much more from the starters than we saw in week one. Brennen Beyer will be relegated to the bench and hypothetical extra DE will be Jake Ryan, who was an impact pass rusher last week. The rest of the line should be able to hold up on the interior, and Kenny Demens will be hard to run past.
Unfortunately, it's not hard to envision Wood exploiting Michigan's weak edges with his ability to bounce outside. It will be easy to lose contain against him; Michigan's outside linebackers were thoroughly bleah against Western; Michigan will lose contain. If Wood doesn't go over 100 yards that will be a surprise. Holding him to 4 YPC instead of the 5 and getting Kovacs to slice him down to live another down will be keys. They'll get yards. Michigan has to make them earn touchdowns.
Key Matchup: Mike Martin vs Cave, etc. Martin is supposed to be banged up. If he's ineffective that takes a major source of the zero-yard plays Michigan needs to kick ND off the field out of play. This is the time to Make A Statement.
Last year this was either walk-ons at QB for the Irish or DOOM. This year the guy who got yanked in favor of that walk-on after doing this…
…is in charge. Unfortunately, he's not fresh off the pickle farm anymore. Now a sophomore, Tommy Rees came in at halftime after Crist had bombed himself down the depth chart and lit up the USF secondary to the tune of 296 yards on 34 attempts. He was victimized by drops, one of which led to a crippling interception. (The other INT was Rees's brain going "FLOYDFLOYDFLOYDFLOYDFLOYD" despite Floyd being double covered.)
Rees's situation was a major factor in those numbers. South Florida entered the second half up 16 and played to not give up the big play. Almost a third of Rees's yards came on an all-but-meaningless drive that started on the ND 11 with two minutes left and USF leading by ten. Before that he was playing strictly against a GERG-style three man rush that never got home. He was able to leisurely survey the defense and grind down the field as USF gambled that playing like idiots wouldn't catch up to them before the end of the game*. He was really good at this.
And then there's Michael Floyd (@ right), who I don't have to describe to you. ND's other receivers are just all right. Theo Riddick might be good if he learns to catch. TJ Jones is currently holding his binky tight and sucking his thumb in case the bad man yells at him again. Tight end Tyler Eifert isn't Rudolph, but he is pretty good. He'll be a source of frustration.
Michigan's situation here is far less doom-ridden than last year. Woolfolk should return. I'm betting they put him over the top of Floyd in the hopes that his speed and height can break up some of the deep stuff. Avery and Floyd both had their moments against Western and will put the theory that Tony Gibson's real name is Debbie and real profession is pop start to the test. Kovacs seems like he's moving to genuinely good. The main issue is the situation at non-Kovacs safety. In the nickel Michigan figures to be running much of the day that was Carvin Johnson or Marvin Robinson, neither of whom seems ready for primetime. I wonder if Michigan will roll out Avery as that nickel corner—something he played last year—and move Gordon back to the safety spot.
Meanwhile up front, Michigan used an array of blitzes to freak Alex Carder out. They didn't get much pass rush from the front four save freshman Jake Ryan, but the starters were sat for much of the game due to punishing heat. I don't think that override what we've seen for the careers of Martin and Roh and Van Bergen. They'll get to the QB whether by blitzing or not. Rees will probably get a read first.
Key Matchup: Mattison's zone blitzing against Rees's ability to react quickly. Some of the blitzes won't get home and Michigan will give up chunks. What happens when Michigan's blitzes do slip guys through unblocked will decide the game. Does Rees panic and throw balls up for grabs? Does he shut down like a deer in the headlights as Kovacs bears down and he can't find a receiver? Or does he zing evil passes to evil Mike Floyd for evil yardage that makes us lose?
*[Seriously: Skip Holtz went full Lloyd in this one. It was a little repulsive to watch. If ND didn't have the worst case of butterfingers they would have blown the lead, deservedly. The only thing I thought during the second half was "I hate football coaches."]
You'd think this would be a huge advantage for Notre Dame but last week David Ruffer missed a chip shot field goal, Ben Turk averaged 34 yards on five shankalicious punts, and USF ripped off a 34-yard punt return—their only opportunity of the game. Notre Dame's got problems, too.
It's still a Notre Dame advantage because Ruffer has an excellent track record; Gibbons does not.
Key Matchup: GIBBONS YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS AAAAAA
I call him "Brian Kitty"
Cackle with knowing glee if...
Fear/Paranoia Level: 6 (Baseline 5; –1 Home night game with frickin' firewurks, +1 for Mike Floyd aaaiaigh, –1 for Mike Floyd didn't do crap last year…, +1 for Because of Walk-on Stuff And Cam Gordon Making Him Irrelevant, +1 for Ugh More Freshmen DL, +1 for Denard's Not Getting 500 Yards This Time, –1 for True Sophomore With Scant Experience Against Mad Mattison)
Desperate need to win level: 8 (Baseline 5; +1 for Let's Get This Party Started Right, +1 for The Sky's A Different Color And It's On Another Channel, +1 for It's Notre Dame And They Are Very Annoying, +1 for A Win Probably Means Borges Is The Platonic Ideal Of Borges, –1 for It's Not Like We're Playing For A National Title This Year)
Loss will cause me to... make even more insufferable comments about the stupidity of MANBALL
Win will cause me to... WOO SHOTGUN MANBALL
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
I always hate this section because predictions are stupid. I hate it even more now because predictions in this specific case are even stupider than stupid. There's all the uncertainty above and then the possibility of yet more pounding rain. So, like, I don't know, man.
But strictures and conventions. After watching the ND game I'm a lot less worried about the yardage disparity against USF. Skip Holtz went into full turtle mode at halftime(!) of a game he led by two scores. It was gross. In the first half USF moved the ball pretty well but had fewer opportunities to rack up yards because of a defensive TD and terrible, terrible punting by ND.
USF ranked 112th in returning starters according to Phil Steele and still features terrible BJ Daniels, who is terrible, as their quarterback. Under the circumstances I might have pulled the Holtz there too. And when they finally got scared after ND missed a chip-shot FG to bring them within a score, they took the offense out of the garage for an 80-yard, 14-play touchdown march.
So… don't put too much stock into Rees's performance. He was allowed a ton of easy underneath throws with no pressure at all. He's a true sophomore who was a generic three-star out of high school. Severe meltdown is possible. Unfortunately, that goes both ways since Rees is throwing to Michael Floyd.
Michigan is almost totally unknown. We got some encouraging notes from Al Borges in a brief window and we saw some sexy NFL style zone blitz packages that promise to rattle quarterbacks all year. Mattison will have more in the drawer. And then there's last year and Denard running forever and ever amen.
I think it comes down to turnovers. Given what we saw last week, the relative abilities of the opposing teams to get pressure on the quarterbacks, and an admittedly hypothetical improvement in Denard Robinson's ball security, that slightly favors Michigan.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
Brian - Quick correction the game is on ESPN not ABC.
The game is actually going to be televised on ESPN.
And you know what's going to be on ABC instead of primetime football in the bighouse for the first time in history?
That's right, effing NASCAR. This should be a no brainer for a national broadcast on ABC. I of course don't have cable being the poor ass grad student that I am. Instead I'm going to be stuck in a shitty bar in Ohio surrounded by people that may or may not have attended that school in Ohio and worship the ground that Tressel walks on. If you can't tell I'm quite pissed by ths.
As someone not in Big Ten country, let me break it to ya: not many people care about this game on the National stage. Nobody not a fan of UM cares that its the first night game. I don't know that NASCAR is a bigger draw, but in the south I wouldn't be surprised.
That kitty looks terrifying.
is preparing to strike, like the Wolverine Defense: ears back, claws out, from kickoff to final gun.
My kitty has wings.
Not a bad prediction, although I think the defeneses get smoked in this one, I'm going with 42-35 UM. Let's all do the anti-rain dance tonight before we go to sleep.
Heck no, i'm sacrificing engineering freshmen (ah engineering campus, the endless source of virgins) for rain. A torrential downpour will put out the tire fire in our secondary and end the threat of Floyd. No way Rees lights us up if the skies are pouring rain. After that we load the box and stop Woods. Meanwhile we can have Denard, Fitz, Shaw, Smith, and another back trade off carries to stay fresh.
I'll be in the student section, cold and wet but grinning like an idiot.
I'm not a huge believer in Cave.
If you look at a replay of Jonas Gray's back-breaking fumble, the USF MLB caused the fumble by essentially grabbing Cave and hurling him into Gray. He was not, as you would say "stout".
at mauve, what do we do at plum, byzantium or a nice sangria-red?
mauve - cackle
plum - chortle
byzantium - whoop
sangria - guffaw
You called him Braylon Edwards in the wrong jersey in 2009, and that's even truer now. The man, he terrifies.
First time he runs a fade one of our corners will escortt him to the cement area on the outskirts of the field where their feet may just happen to get tangled. Bam, horrifying bloody knee children look away flesh "flap" hanging down to his shin. Exit Floyd. Its all good.
not going to rain. Heavy rain overnight, annoying drizzle rain for Gameday. Clouds breaking with partly sunny conditions. This game is going to be awesome and mother nature knows better than to fuck with it.
Martin "banged up." Facepalm. Martin is a great talent, but after a while injury proneness becomes a major factor in terms of the accolades that many are ready to give him. We need him healthy man and that does not seem to be part of the equation for him.
great stuff, and LMAO as usual.
Jake Ryan is going into Rees Ball Crusher mode Saturday night, and our secondary will hold up fine, IMO. There's no shutting out Floyd, but I like our chances to win the TO battle with Mad Mattison pressure on the QB. If we can run the ball with any success, we are in great shape.
Also, the Michigan offense ability to score from inside the redzone. I think if the offense can keep scoring points we will win! I'm a bit worried that ND is going to be able to run on our D. I'm looking for a higher scoring game. UM 42 ND 38.
But I agree it will be real close. Rees doesn't scare me but they have talent. I just hope Denard gets unleashed again.
this is pretty much how I feel - I think that we will win, but they are very talented.
ND will put up a bunch of points. We can't expect them to turn the ball over 5 times. As you note, if Denard gets unleashed, we should be able to hand with just about anyone in a shoot-out. I also think that Fitz will be a key figure, as our ability to establish a non-Denard running game will allow Denard to pick his spots and gash their D for big chunks.
But that is always the problem with ND. They are always pretty talented, but always underachieve.
Remember that, up until the bowl game last year, ND and Michigan had the same record. And we were invited to play in a bowl that (IMO) we had no business playing in.
Let me tell you all where my head is at for this game:
My heart rate elevated just reading the portion of Brian's preview relating to our defense against their offense.
I haven't gotten any work done today, as I am (a) refreshing MGoBlog for any new content about the game, (b) checking weather.com as if it were flight tracker during a coaching search, and (c) driving everyone who works with me nuts by trying to steer every conversation towards college football.
8:00 tomorrow night really needs to get here before I lose it.
I work for a small company and the boss is an FSU guy. Seems like we are having a contest to see who can walk by the other guy's office and find something other than college football on the computer...I think he's 0-for-15 today.
This is like childhood Christmas anticipation levels.
I have never laughed my ass off so hard while receiving so much information. Thank you.
Additionally, I like the comment that "Michigan is almost totally unknown." While no one but Connecticut knew the depths of Denard's ability last year, Denard took advantage of ND because they virtually had no film on him. So he played terrific 'Nardball against ND and a lot of other teams last year.
Its great that AB is installing some new stuff for him that, again, teams have not seen, while inevitibly keeping a lot of the same old.
Finally, it is also easy to go by the stats and deduce that Rees had a great almost comeback-like game last week, but considering that any decent QB could rack up yards against USF's soft D in the secone half, maybe he's not breaking out like a lot of people would like to think.
If you made that up yourself, you sir are awesome (at least this one time anyway).
Seriously, if "The Wolverines' defense looked better in the opener" is your Big Ten blogger's third sentence, then it's time to upgrade your Big Ten blogger. I understand that Brian (and similarly inclined bloggers) don't want to sell out to the great, entertaining monster, but reading anything about college football on ESPN causes massive amounts of *facepalm*.
I hadn't heard that he's banged up... I hope nothing serious. We need him in there and dominating.
I was laughing so hard over the use of "hambeast" earlier in the post that I almost ran right over that detail. If this is true... oh noes...
Any chance we can play this at 8:00 tonight? No? Crap.
I really hope that Borgess kept the Ferrarri in the garage last week and has it tuned up and ready to go. I also hope that ND is worried about getting Denarded. That should open them up for Fitz of Rage.
Defensively, I think we saw what Mattison will do. Once WMU put some drives together, he went with the realy defense: blitzes with all kinds of zone drops. If Troy can cover Floyd (a big if) our zone drops have to hold up long enough for the blitz to get to Reese and sack him or force bad throws. To me, this is where its at. It could be Kovacs kill shots. It also has the potential for heart breaking almost-sack-TDs.
I can't remember any time when the ND game was more of a head scratcher than this one. I guess I have more faith in our unknown offense against the ND defense than I have fear of heart break.
Also, please no T-Wolf on kick coverage. I'm begging here.
Let it be so!
Fitz of Rage is good. Any others? How about Fitz of Fury?
I had a dream last night that we won by 10, so I will go with that.
I think Troy will surprise some people defending Floyd.
Do you really think it matters what conference the officials are from when they've got to call the game in front of 110,000 fans of Michigan?
Or if that was a jab at the Mauve Marauder, not a self kitty portrait, then at least a visor and some blush are needed for our feline friend.
ND 34 UM 26
Mike Martin + banged up = vomit on keyboard
I hadn't heard anything about this before reading the preview, now I am much more worried.
No MM = bad news, he was completely unstoppable hulk mode last year against ND.
If ND is completing bombs, dosent that become panic blitzing?
Remy Hamilton, anyone?
the closer the game gets the more i think michigan takes. in the 3rd consecutive year michigan wins by scoring a td in the final minute of the game. michigan 31 notre dame 28.
When did we find out that Mike Martin is banged up!?! =(
My heart says UM but my head is telling me ND. I'll call it a push on the offensive side but the edge goes to ND with a better equipped defense. While UM no longer deploys the swiss cheese devensive scheme made famous by Greg Robinson the UM D simply lacks the talent to stop the Irish
ND 45 UM 31
From South Florida?